Carney (L) and Poilievre (R) will go head-to-head again tonight. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

THE TWO MAIN candidates vying to lead Canada as prime minister for the next four years go head-to-head in a TV debate tonight as part of a campaign that has been upended by the influence of the Trump presidency in the US.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre looked set to lead his party back to power after a decade of Liberal rule under Justin Trudeau, but the election of Donald Trump and the decision by Trudeau to step down as prime minister has turned the race on its head. 

At the start of this year, polls indicated Poilievre’s Tory party was set for a majority in the Ottawa’s House of Commons but instead his party now trails a resurgent Liberal Party under the leadership of Mark Carney. 

Carney was sworn in as Prime Minister last month after winning a leadership contest for his Liberal party and is now looking for his own mandate in the 28 April election he called last month. 

In the latest polls, CBC data put the Liberals at 43.6% support, with the Tories at 37.8%.

Unlike Poilievre who has been an MP for over 20 years, Carney has never been elected to office anywhere, instead building his profile as the head of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis and in the Bank of England throughout the post-Brexit tumult. 

By coincidence, Poilievre and Carney are running for parliament in neighboring electoral districts — Carleton and Nepean — outside of Ottawa. 

Carney, a first-timer, was born in Fort Smith, about 4,500 kilometers from Nepean and was raised in the western city of Edmonton.

Poilievre is also a blow-in having been raised in the western province of Alberta but he has has represented Carleton in parliament since 2004.

Despite their contrasting political experiences, Carney has led a Liberal comeback since he was elected as Trudeau’s replacement just over a month ago, with Canadians drawn to his economic experience in the face of Trump’s trade war and annexation threat.

“I think that Carney, being an economist, is better suited to deal with Trump,” said William Dubroy, 75, shopping at a Nepean bulk store.

Fellow shopper Andrea Doyle said she’s “excited for him to become the next prime minister.”

Populism

By contrast, Poilievre has been placed on the back foot as the support he built on the back of Trudeau’s unpopularity has faded into the distance.

Indeed, the 45-year-old career politician has sought to dispel comparisons with Trump given that they share a similar brand of right-wing populism.

Since coming to office in January, Trump has threatened the Canadian economy with high tariffs and repeatedly called for the country to surrender its sovereignty and become a part of the United States.

Experts agree that the main question facing Canadians when they cast their ballot on April 28 will be who — Carney or Poilievre — can push back against Trump.

“The economy is the biggest issue for me in this election, including the whole free trade thing with the United States,” Ottawa voter Carol Salemi told AFP.

We need some sort of negotiation (with the US) and we need a strong leader to do that.

Danielle Varga, 22, echoed that viewpoint, saying Canada needs “someone that’s strong against America. It feels like everyone’s on that same page, which is good.”

At the moment, Carney appears to fit the bill.

“This is the most important election of our lifetime,” Carney recently told campaign volunteers in Ottawa 

“It’s critical in redefining our relationship with the United States (and) redefining our economy on our own terms.”

The two men on stage in a French-language debate last night. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Last month, Trump said he had an “extremely productive” first call with Carney, adding that the two leaders “agree on many things.”

That was a stark change in tone from a US president whose dealings with Trudeau had been frosty, and it was immediately picked up on north of the border.

For his part, Poilievre has sought to argue that a vote to return the Liberals to government was playing into Trump’s hands.  

“President Trump has said he wants the Liberals back in power. We know why, because they will keep Canada weak and keep our investment flowing out of this country, to the US,” he said at a campaign stop in Toronto.

Debate

Last night, Carney and Poilievre shared a debate stage in Quebec that was completely in French, ahead of tonight’s debate in English.

Carney avoided major errors that tested his occasionally shaky language skills, having at times struggled to articulate his positions in French while campaigning ahead of the 28 April vote. 

Poilievre argued that a decade of weak economic performance under the Trudeau-led Liberals left Canada vulnerable to hostile US trade policies.

While conceding that “no one can control Donald Trump’s decision,” the Tory leader pledged to “put Canada first.”

Trudeau (L) stepped off the stage in March and Carney has sought to distance himself from his predecessor. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Poilievre continued his effort of trying to tie Carney to Trudeau — who became deeply unpopular toward the end of his decade in power.

He suggested Carney should be “embarrassed to ask Canadians for a fourth mandate despite a terrible Liberal record.”

“I’m not Justin Trudeau,” Carney replied. “I just got here.”

Magic numbers

In a country of 41 million people, 343 seats are at stake.

The party that wins a majority will form the next government, and its leader will become prime minister.

If no party gains a clear majority, the party with the most seats will be invited to attempt to form a coalition government with the help of smaller parties.

With reporting © – AFP 2025