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THE CENTRAL STATISTICS Office (CSO) has said that the inclusion of ‘real-time’ CSO data on excess deaths has found that there were “pronounced increases” in the number of death notices in the month of April last year, and January and February of this year.
Official death notices – including the deaths of people who had Covid-19 – can be registered up to three months after the death of a person.
But due to the Irish custom of holding a funeral two to three days after the death of a person, notices on RIP.ie are a good ‘real-time’ indicator of when peaks in excess deaths happen (the average time between date of death and publication of a death notice on RIP.ie is about 1.1 days).
The CSO is using these figures on an experimental basis, and said yesterday that when this RIP.ie data is analysed, from March 2020 to February 2021 provides a range of between 2,034-2,338 excess deaths.
There were significant excess death notices in April 2020 (a total of 3,504 notices), January 2021 (3,919 notices) and February 2021 (3,147 notices).
The average number of deaths was just under 3,200 for January and just over 2,700 for February for the years 2014-2018.
It’s worth noting that those three months were among Covid-19 spikes, when the number of cases in Ireland was high.
Commenting on the results, statistician John Flanagan said: “Most notable are the increases in death notices in April 2020 and in January and February 2021 which stands in contrast to recent years.
“Numbers of deaths notices increased to 3,504 in April 2020 from 2,864 in March 2020. In comparison, the average number of deaths for April for the years 2014-2018 was approximately 2,500, according to CSO published deaths by month of occurrence.”
RIP.ie includes some deaths that occur in Northern Ireland; these were removed in the above analysis.
31K died in Ireland in 2019 from all causes so that provides some sort of context. So far close to 5K have died from Covid over a 12 month period. 5K isn’t going to make much overall impact on 31K. You’d expect to see the odd sharp spike here and there during the peak Covid months but nothing too out of the ordinary and that seems to be what the graph is showing.
@Sean: so what’s your point?
@Sean: it’s a good job we were in level 5 lockdown isn’t it, otherwise it would have been an awful lot more. This business of saying more people are dying of other illness than covid is rubbish, how many do they think may have died if we hadn’t have been in lockdown!!
@Ultan: The point is he making is that he does not care that 5000 people died who would be alive if there was no pandemic.
“The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic.” – German journalist, satirist, and pacifist Kurt Tucholsky.
@David Jordan: and the deaths from suicide solely because of the extent, duration and impact of government enforced restrictions? They’re great at correlating data to prove a point when it comes Covid. And yet when trying to see how many excess suicides there’s been in comparison to other years it’s an absolute maze.. And any td that’s asked for correlated information, including directly asking the Taoiseach, has either been ignored or being given empty promises.
@John Egan: and where are the suicide numbers? For that matter, where are the road traffic accident numbers – numbers one would think are down due to people not being out and about as much.
So we can both go off into never-never land thinking about what might have been or could have been all day long. The fact is that there are *numbers* behind what people who dedicate their *lives* studying this stuff are saying.
And most of those people are, believe it or not, decent honest people. Most have children of their own. They are not people who would make their lives or the lives of their loved ones unnecessarily harder for sheets and giggles.
@Sean: so how many deaths does it take before mitigation is warranted? Good grief 5K people in a year is a *ton* compared to the few hundred lost to road traffic accidents each year. So should we abolish speed limits? I mean can you *imagine* the mental health benefits to long distance commuters who have to travel far?
@Deirdre O’Byrne: exactly, where are they? If we’re going to make comparisons, then all comparisons in relation to deaths should be included. Rip.ie states itself it should not be used in comparing death statistics from one year to another.
@John Egan: where does rip.ie say that? I can’t find it.
@Marie Agnew: I have to disagree, Marie …. Level 5 never existed … People were working away as normal, where the ludicrous Swiss cheese restrictions allowed them …. flying in and out of the country in their droves …. MAMILs out cycling, running, walking …. Families (rightly so) meeting up in numbers behind closed doors. The elderly, as with the flu and numerous other viruses, couldn’t handle Covid and they make up the death numbers. Stop kidding yourself that this cycle of ‘lockdowns’ was nothing more than an OTT reaction to protect the health service …..
@Deirdre O’Byrne: any increase in suicides would be a part of this excess deaths number.
@Martin Galvin: really? So why did we have 6000 cases before Christmas, oh yes, parties, get togethers! Although a lot did not keep to the full level 5, they were being careful and not participating in large groups before that, when the flood gates opened we had a vicious cycle, so don’t you kid yourself
@Sean: This post hasn’t aged well , end of 2024 now and we have 20,000 excess deaths since the roll out of the experiment and CSO have confirmed the figures on https://irelandexcessdeaths.com/ are 100% correct …and the crisis is getting worse ! and not a peep out of Govt …only deflection and MeHole stating they want a blame free Covid enquiry!
Maynooth University have carried out analysis of the RIP.ie notices from 1st March 2020 to Feb 28th 2021 and estimate the overall excess deaths for the 12 month period at 3,200
@NotMyIreland: and still there’s people claiming it’s a hoax or a conspiracy and that deaths are actually down etc. I suppose you can’t win against st upid
Not a conspiracy at all but does show the the 4900 deaths so far are not all because of covid. Many died from unrelated issues but died while having covid. Reported covid “death” figures aren’t accurate in that regard.
@Paul Hedderman: Where does it show that?
@: go off and have a little think about it.
4300 covid deaths in the stats to feb 28 2021. Minus 3200 excess deaths in the study in the post above…… Further confirmation of this for you from Leo
https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1278995351169613824?s=19
@: even the government’s propaganda distributor, rte, changed the way they reported deaths because they knew the figures don’t stand any serious scrutiny. There is a difference between “died from covid” and “died with covid”.
@Paul Hedderman: the reported figures have always died within 28 days of a positive covid test not as “covid “deaths““
If someone who had cancer (who may have died with a month or two) got covid and died sooner, should that not be recorded as covid?
@Paul Hedderman: excess deaths does not mean that 3200 died of Covid, it’s just excess on the average amount. Could mean less deaths on other areas such as car fatalities when we were in lockdown etc.
@Colm OS: Thats a gray area. Does radiotherapy go down as a the cause of death for a cancer patient if they could have lived longer without treatment?!?!….. The point is that the stats arent accurate and that its reported that the virus is the cause of more deaths than it it actually has.
@Niamh Brady: 148 road deaths in 2020, 140 in 2019……. Its obviously a ball park figure and not exact but does give an indication of the excess deaths due to the pandemic. But as i pointed out Leo has already confirmed the death figures arent accurate. See link in previous comment.
@Paul Hedderman: that’s not what it shows at all. While some may have died anyway many had their deaths expedited by Covid19.
@Ger: where does it show that, or is it just your opinion?
@Paul Hedderman: No, it shows that other causes of death decreased due to the lockdown and hygiene measures.
Respiratory illnesses are common cause of death in the elderly e.g. bacterial pneumonia, influenza and other coronaviruses.
However, social distancing reduced the prevalence of respiratory illnesses massively and as a result baseline (non-COVID-19) deaths decreased.
This give a false impression that COVID-19 deaths were over countered.
@Paul Hedderman: Here’s a better article:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flu-has-disappeared-worldwide-during-the-covid-pandemic/
Essentially the baseline death rate decreased due to a large decrease in non-Covid-19 respiratory illnesses and deaths. Respiratory deaths usually account for 3,000 to 4,000 deaths a year in Ireland, however, with Zero flu cases and far few other respiratory (non SARS-Cov-2) illnesses, deaths from these common causes has dropped.
This is why we see the all cause deaths between the two peaks of COVID-19 deaths was mostly lower than average last year:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
There’s a graph at the end of the page, just select Ireland on its own. Some countries show this effect more clearly than others.
@David Jordan: Interesting thanks. Who knows what the real figures are!
@Paul Hedderman: Not you anyway Paul.
@Paul Hedderman: some of 1600 people could of die up to from one hour to 11 months earlier than they would have without Covid too.
@Shane O’S: Fair play Shane, contributing well to the convo
@Kevin Thompson: Of course they can but if someone passes a few days, weeks or months earlier as a result of having covid on top of their original illness is not a covid death. Can you classify a terminal cancer suffer who passed with covid as a covid death as opposed to a cancer death? Someone obese with heart disease?,…….. Etc?!?! Its a Sh!tty world/pandemic at the min, but so many are living in fear of this. Death stats are being used to enforce policy. A Covid only death is a lot worse than a covid related death, which is a lot worse than a death of a person who also tested positive for covid but it was a non contributory factor. No mater what the cause of death, if you have covid its in the covid death stats. Reporting when the world is locked down should be accurate.
@Paul Hedderman: it’s fairly obvious now that Leo was wrong …20,000 excess deaths at this stage at the end of 2024 ! all confirmed by the CSO !
https://irelandexcessdeaths.com/ …and the crisis is getting worse !
Wouldnt it make more sense to compare calendar years to each other? March 2020 – Feb 2021 includes 2 seasons of covid.
@mar: Yes, but everyone knows that when you do that the figures aren’t much different, hence no justification for shutting down the planet. The fact there’s even an article spinning the figures should tell us what we need to know …..
@mar: that’s how you would normally present a comparison but to do so would also highlight that the months between the peaks are lower than average.
Many people died from Covid and many died from an underlying illness and also had Covid. Some may have died earlier than they should and some didn’t. The subject has been constantly discussed on an emotional level with any questions on either the categorisation or the reporting of numbers causing arguments and insults.
No two countries are using the same classification or reporting.
When it’s all over it will be the excess death calculation that will show the true picture of the pandemic.
@mar: becaise it’s a 12 month period from the beginning of covid
@Dave O’Keeffe: so it’s excess deaths in the year compared to the same year then? Did you even read the article?
@mar: actually no it is precisely *one* season of covid. Covid didn’t exist in Ireland prior to late February 2020 (the first confirmed case was 29 Feb 2020). You cannot have a “season” of something before that something exists.
Fairly poor that you got to go to RIP.IE for death figures. Doctors declare people dead, should register death within 48hrs, at least then would have up to date figures. Not up to 3 months to register death, utter horse poo.
@Denis K: it’s a Doctors job to deal with the living not apply to the registrar to register a death.
@Denis K: agreed dennis embarrasing. these avaiable quarterly in NI. system of reporting meeds to be completely overhauled
@Denis K: Couldn’t agree more.
@Denis K: Deaths can be registered sooner (i.e 2-3 days after death) however the exact cause of death may not be immediately known when the initial death notification made.
The Coronor may require tests to be performed and analysed before the true cause of death is confirmed (one can only imagine the additional volume of cases they’ve been handling over the last year).
Then when the exact cause has been identified the Death Register is updated thereby allowing an accurate Death Certificate to be issued.
That’s one of the reasons why there is a three month time lag before cause of death can be reported publicly.
Sadly there have been more cancer related deaths due to late diagnosis, curtailed routine checks and treatment in the last 13 months.
@Em Gee: source? i.e. a *credible* source – not your aunty on facebook.
@Deirdre O’Byrne:
This post hasn’t aged well , end of 2024 now and we have 20,000 excess deaths since the roll out of the experiment and CSO have confirmed the figures on https://irelandexcessdeaths.com/ are 100% correct …and the crisis is getting worse ! and not a peep out of Govt …only deflection and MeHole stating they want a blame free Covid enquiry!
Our population has increased each year and aged so it must be tricky figuring out excess deaths. Not great that scientists use RIP. ie as a proxy. I’d surmise that there are no excess deaths this March.
31,134 died in 2019… 24,367 up to quarter 3 in 2020.. when quarter 4 figures are available it will give a better picture…
@HearMeNow33: It will be interesting alright, but it’s now May 2021, so how come those stats aren’t available now …?
70,000 excess deaths for England/Wales ,300,000 for USA in 2020.
RIP.ie is not atotal accurate amount of prople who has died, all deaths are not posted on it, allso a persons death could be posted twice on it, not only in the one county, one day a women’s death appeared 3 times on RIP.ie.
Mayo
Roscommon
Kerry
In a typical year in Ireland around 9000 die as a result of diseases of the cardiovascular system. Source Our World in Data (CSO). Diet exercise and screening improvements are known to deliver good outcomes. Will the government provide some leadership on this one?
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