Advertisement

We need your help now

Support from readers like you keeps The Journal open.

You are visiting us because we have something you value. Independent, unbiased news that tells the truth. Advertising revenue goes some way to support our mission, but this year it has not been enough.

If you've seen value in our reporting, please contribute what you can, so we can continue to produce accurate and meaningful journalism. For everyone who needs it.

File photo Shutterstock/UweMosch

'High probability' of global warming reaching 2 degrees by mid-century, study suggests

Professor Peter Thorne of Maynooth University said the research should be taken seriously, but added that it is just a single study.

THERE IS A high probability of global warming reaching 2 degrees Celsius by mid-century, according to a new study

The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change saw countries agree to cap global warming at “well below” 2 Celsius above levels measured between 1850 and 1900 – and 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible.

Today’s study, published by researchers from Stanford and Colorado State University, found thaty there is a high probability of global warming reaching the 2 degrees threshold by mid-century.

The researchers said this suggests that even with greenhouse gas mitigation, there is still a possibility of failing to achieve the UN Paris Agreement goal. 

The researchers also said that while there have been a number of assessments of the time until the thresholds in the Paris Agreement are likely to be reached, their study used AI methods. 

Speaking to RTÉ’s Morning Ireland, director of the Icarus Climate Research Centre at Maynooth University Professor Peter Thorne said the research should be taken seriously, but added that it is just a single study. 

He said the study is “consistent” with previous research on the 1.5 degree warming, but added it diverges somewhat more on 2 degrees warming. He said this is an area that will need to be further examined. 

Professor Thorne said that while temperature increases are “linear”, the effects are not. 

“They will get much worse at 1.5 degrees, than the 1.1 degrees we have today, and they will get much, much worse at 2 degrees centigrade,” he said. 

He said that it is very important that people are aware “it will get worse very quickly”. 

He added, however, that “it’s never really too late to take action on climate change”. 

“In regards to mitigating against even worse outcomes, we need to get serious about it and we need to get serious about it now,” Professor Thorne said. 

In relation to the use of AI in the research published today, he said it is an “interesting approach”. 

“I think it’s too early to say whether it could be a game changer, but certainly what it does do is bring the benefit of looking at it in yet another different way,” he said. 

Professor Thorne said that it is not quite clear why this new research is so pessimistic around the 2C, and it will take time to work that through.

He also warned people to “be aware the single study syndrome”.

“The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) looked at many hundreds of studies to come to its careful deliberations, which did point to the fact that early action and aggressive action on mitigation can keep us below 2 degrees, but it is very aggressive and very early action, far more than we have thus far either nationally or globally.”

Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone...
A mix of advertising and supporting contributions helps keep paywalls away from valuable information like this article. Over 5,000 readers like you have already stepped up and support us with a monthly payment or a once-off donation.

Close
9 Comments
This is YOUR comments community. Stay civil, stay constructive, stay on topic. Please familiarise yourself with our comments policy here before taking part.
Leave a Comment
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Pat Man
    Favourite Pat Man
    Report
    Jan 31st 2023, 1:40 PM

    “High Probability” of more taxes ,wide unused cycle lanes ,narrower roads and congestion charges.
    Thanks to Green fanatical Policies

    187
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Mike Dunne
    Favourite Mike Dunne
    Report
    Jan 31st 2023, 4:25 PM

    @Rui Firmino: China India are ploughing full steam ahead with their coal fired powered stations. No matter what draconian measures are taken by the west, it won’t make one iota of difference in reducing the global temperature.

    42
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Spartacus Ireland
    Favourite Spartacus Ireland
    Report
    Jan 31st 2023, 2:53 PM

    Pushing an elephant up the stairs aren’t we?, never seems to slow despite all the innovation and adaptation: in fact it always seems to be getting worse :-(

    48
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Nicholas McMurry
    Favourite Nicholas McMurry
    Report
    Jan 31st 2023, 4:16 PM

    @Spartacus Ireland: More like trying to stop a charging elephant. It’s slowing down but it needs to turn around.

    8
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Ned
    Favourite Ned
    Report
    Jan 31st 2023, 4:00 PM

    Sure a little warmer now would be grand so,
    To cowld as it is.

    42
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Type17
    Favourite Type17
    Report
    Jan 31st 2023, 9:09 PM

    @Ned: It would be nice if slightly warmer weather that was all that was going to happen – Climate Breakdown will involve intense floods, massive wildfires, famines, climate refugees, and wars over food supplies & drinkable water. Some of these are starting to happen already, but let’s all worry about bike lanes and taxes…

    8
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Eamonn Neligan
    Favourite Eamonn Neligan
    Report
    Jan 31st 2023, 7:14 PM

    Oh give up on that tripe will ye for the love of god.

    26
Submit a report
Please help us understand how this comment violates our community guidelines.
Thank you for the feedback
Your feedback has been sent to our team for review.

Leave a commentcancel

 
JournalTv
News in 60 seconds