LAST UPDATE | 16 Nov 2025

IRELAND’S STUNNING WIN against Portugal at Dublin’s Aviva Stadium earlier this week has kept the country’s World Cup dream alive going into our final group match today. 

Troy Parrott scored twice in a match that saw the team give their best performance in recent memory (and also saw Cristiano Ronaldo getting sent off for the first time ever in an international game).

The victory means it is still possible for the boys in green to qualify for the 2026 tournament, but there is a long way to go. 

So how can they do it?

There are two ways: top their group and automatically qualify, or finish second and advance to the play-offs next year. 

UEFA UEFA

This is how our qualifying group looks at the moment, with Ireland sitting in third place on 7 points.

Top the group

Technically, the team could still top the group, but it would be nothing short of a miracle.

Portugal remain top of the group on 10 points. They will take on Armenia today, who are currently bottom with 3 points, while Ireland will play Hungary in Budapest. 

To have any chance of qualifying, Ireland need to win against Hungary. But in order to top the group, it would come down to how many goals they win by, and whether Armenia can beat Portugal at home. Bear with me. 

If Ireland beat Hungary and Portugal lose to Armenia, the team would have 10 points – the same as Portugal. The top spot would then come down to goal difference, and finishing level with them on that is no good, as the next tiebreaker is goals scored, which is in their favour. 

So Ireland would need to beat Hungary 3-0 and Armenia would need a scoreline of 2-0 against Ronaldo’s side in Porto in order to leapfrog the team ranked fifth in the world and automatically qualify. 

Like I said, it’s a reach, but it’s not impossible.

Play-off route

The more likely option is that Ireland finish in second place and head to the play-offs in March 2026, which will decide the final qualifiers from Europe for the tournament.

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That’s still going to require a win against Hungary today – and two more wins after that. 

The play-offs will see the teams that finish in second place in all 12 of the qualifying groups, as well as four teams from UEFA’s Nations League who didn’t top their qualifying groups, compete for the final four spots at the World Cup. 

All 16 teams will be split into four mini tournaments, with four teams in each. Each mini tournament will have two semi-finals, with the winners of each of these playing each other in a final leg. These are all knock-out matches, meaning only a win will do.

The four winning teams will then head to the World Cup next summer. 

So, in short, Ireland would need to win their next three games (including the crucial match today) for them to have any chance of getting to the US, Canada and Mexico.

It’s a long shot, but plenty of people said they had no chance of beating Portugal last night, so let’s not write them off just yet.

Keep the faith (and maybe light a candle).