Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
IF YOU WANT to know what the human and financial losses of a global pandemic for something like Ebola would look like, someone’s already figured it out.
In a post last year, risk modeling gurus AIR calculated that the 1918 Spanish Flu killed between 20 and 100 million people (out of a global population of 1.8 billion) and caused the equivalent of $20 billion in global losses.
AIR then plugged the 1918 pandemic data into 21st century population density and development parameters to come up with a model for what a new Spanish Flu or other serious global pandemic would look like today.
It ain’t pretty.
First, there’s the map above, showing the casualty ratio by country. As might unfortunately be imagined, developing nations fare the worst, while Western nations see the fewest casualties.
Ireland would see between 25 and 50 casualties per 100,000 members of the population.
But fewest is a relative term. Here’s their table breaking down casualties for a modified G-7 (replacing Italy with Australia):
It seems safe to conclude from this that whatever it costs to minimise the risk of a global pandemic will pale in comparison to trying to control it once it arrives.
Ebola won’t come here … It’s well aware it will be charged a levy !!
De old virus tax
Ebola is very serious but its killed 1000 people so far, and its requires very close contact for transmission to occur. Influenza on the other hand kills tens of thousands more people every year and is airborne some perspective is required here
Yes you need contact for Ebola to spread but that’s just at the moment, they’re worried that it could mutate to become respiratory and it’s been seen in a few species that this is possible, let’s pray it doesn’t happen but it’s almost guaranteed it will in the future
That doesn’t sell papers.
Panics about H1N1 Swine Flu, Avian Flu, Sars, the millennial bug are all fearmongered to the last by the media.
If we had sensible immigration control in Europe, diseases like this wouldn’t even be a issue here, but with cases of leprosy(yes), tb and aids all being imported what would you expect.
http://www.irishhealth.com/article.html?id=22208
http://www.newhamrecorder.co.uk/news/newham_has_highest_tb_rate_in_london_1_2347230
None of those compare in any way shape or form to Ebola, 90% mortality even in young fit individuals
Brian
Well said that is the scary bit
@Brian Ebolas case fatality rate fluctuates between 50-90% and as the pandemic burns itself out more and more people survive.
Most pandemics on a graph look like this: ^
They steadily go up, peak then drop.
Ebola kills it’s victims too fast for it to spread significantly.
There is always the possibility it could mutate, sure, but the statistical odds of Ebola Zaire mutating into a form that’s transmitted as easily as the flu are not high, you have a greater chance of drowning in your own bathtub.
@Planation watch this has ZERO to do with immigration esp since it’s NOT spreading in Europe, it’s spreading in Africa, which has v strict immigration controls esp in the west.
It’s spreading so fast because of ignorance, fear and superstition/religion.
In some towns they are refusing to let doctors in, keeping them away with armed force, because the morons think the doctors are the ones causing the infection and the juju up the mountain is angry with them. Religion getting in the way of logic once more.
The other factor is it has never broken out in west Africa before so people don’t always know their family has died of Ebola.
When you die in Ireland it’s probably going to be in a hospice or hospital who will refrigerate your remains and quickly cop it if you have a disease. In Africa they are dying at home and people are coming into direct contact with blood and vomit, thats why it’s spreading.
I eat Ebola cereal for breakfast every morning so I should be fine.
Remember a few years ago when we had the Big Freeze and the country ground to a halt because we were incredibly inadequately prepared for what couldn’t possibly be described as anything other than a particularly cold winter? Somehow I get the feeling that the auld “Ah we’ll be grand” approach wouldn’t fare too well in the face of an actual global disaster.
We have over a million stocks of antivirals and even more than half a million stocks of the smallpox vaccine. Once the first wave (6 months) of a pandemic burns out and a vaccine is made the govt will buy enough for everyone. We also have a national stockpile of masks etc
The only thing that concerns me is that in the event of an outbreak of a major easily spread disease we don’t have enough CBRN suits for first responders and the military both of which would be needed to respond, enforce quarantines and control civil disorder.
[WHAT IF THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO HAPPENED?]
Lets say an easily communicated strain of Ebola or Influenza or Smallpox, Ireland is in the best position in the world apart from maybe Australia, to deal with it.
1. Were an island, so we can cut ourselves off from the outside world by closing our ports and airports
2. Shutting down intercity road and rail is very easy given how our transport infrastructure is mapped out.
3. We have ready made national emergency laws (the 1939 act) ready to go and constitutional, that would allow the govt broad latitude. We don’t have the legal barriers like the US with posse commitatus
4. Our population centres spread OUT not UP. This was normally considered bad but in a pandemic it’s good, less population density will mean a lower case infection and fatality rate.
5. We have respect for our emergency services and will follow their directions, we won’t have the cultural problems Africa has.
So overall, were quite well equipped.
Any of you worried about ebola please take a look at this video it will put your mind at ease:
. Were an island, so we can cut ourselves off from the outside world by closing our ports and airports.
Maybe maybe not.How do you evacuate people who are not resident here and wish to leave Ireland?How do we look after them?How do ytou deal with international flights or emergency situations that Ireland is obliged to assist in with international law?How are we going to stop with our pitiful navy and farsce of an air corps clandestine or mass landings on our 2 thousand kilometer coastline from the Uk or wherever?WHO is going to give the order to shoot down aircraft or sink refugee boats?? The President?The govt will be the first to run out of here like rats leaving the sinking ship..They will be safly ensconsed in a bunker someplace like Switzerland or Brussells setting up a govt in exile and expecting the EU to do the dirty work for them.
Shutting down intercity road and rail is very easy given how our transport infrastructure is mapped out.
How soon can it be done?What about fammlies who are commuters?Who live outside a 50 mile radius of Dublin and have their children ,spouses,etc dispersed along that route in jobs,schools ,colleges etc?Think they will be driving nice and orderly to collect their fammlies and then donning masks to go shopping al within a 4hour time frame.All it takes is one smash on a major road …..
Have you got enough Garda /military personel to shut down every motorway,primary,secondary,other road,footpath,canal,river or field driveable by 4×4 before or after an outbreak?
We have ready made national emergency laws (the 1939 act) ready to go and constitutional, that would allow the govt broad latitude. We don’t have the legal barriers like the US with posse commitatus.
Do you mean a dictatorial law like the offences against the state act 1939??OK so you can be imprisioned without trial for anything from peeing on the pavement to shooting the president. Last thing I would like to see or trust this bunch with martial law.No trials,public demonstrations,freedom of the press,TV and Net gone to report how much of a bollix the situation really is…
BTW you havent a clue really do you what the US Posse Comitatus laws actually are do you?Or how it is bypassed by presidental executive orders?And has been since the 1980s
Our population centres spread OUT not UP. This was normally considered bad but in a pandemic it’s good, less population density will mean a lower case infection and fatality rate.
Yes maybe,but not very good if you have to evacuate a mass or get them back to their respective homes on the outbound route.This should have worked with the 1918 flu pandemic in Ireland.Of which there is little info ,but it spread to rural Ireland by the efficent railway system of the day with returning troops.That took weeks,how quick will it be by car or bus?
We have respect for our emergency services and will follow their directions, we won’t have the cultural problems Africa has.
Really??We arent Germans you know.I can tell you one thing ,the first pimply garda that refuses a mass of people a chance of getting back home will be simply run over,or shot dead there and then.
Panicing mobs are not somthing you rationalise with,and I dont think a already overworked underfunded hospital system top heavy with pen pushers is going to be able to deal with a massive pandemic when it hits here.We have 12 beds in a high contaigen unit for the entire country…. Yet we cant get people here to wash their hands before entering a hospital ward or leaving it either,or our doctors either for that matter.We have to shut down hospitals because of vomiting bugs and have people stacked on trollies or coughing on each other in emergency ward waiting rooms or having to walk thru blood and vomit that hasnt been cleaned up properly… Short answer,we will be screwed quicker than you can say SARS.
Look,if countries that actually HAVE realistic contingency plans in place for crisis like the USA,Germany etc figure their plans are woefully inadqaute at best and know they wont function properly at best maybe 60% of the time.HOW do you expect Ireland to be able to function as you describe in an emergency situation like this??Unless you are a beaurcrat who belives that things will go to plan,then you are utterly naive.
TBH when this hits it will be an utter clusterfuk that will overwhelm us within days,and I’d estimate when it does hit a 75% die back of the Irish pouplation.Cynical..No realistic ,I work as a disaster survival planner and have 15 years experince of working in going into and getting people out of war zones and other hell holes.This country is one of the most woefully unprepared countries in the Western hemisphere for any major crisis,in fact there are African countries in better shape to deal with problems than Ireland is.
Unless people make their own preps and plan what they will do in a major situation here they will be dead in short order.But Irish people are lazy and expect “their govt and services” to do it all for them or have this whistling past the graveyard attitude of “Shure nuthin will happen ” Also known as Ostrich syndrome,stick head in sand ,leave ass exposed for good booting.
Take in to account the amount of non nats that go home to Africa for the summer coming back here for the start of school and the 21 day lead in 25 – 50 is an understatement , 1 child with it in a school class of 30-40 and schools 4-500 pupils and a crap Health care system do the math
What’s a non-national?
It’s a non nat. Like Kit Kat.
I’m always amused at the phrase “non nationals” as well.
Why not just say “foreign born”?
God do you two take offence on behalf of all non Irish when someone else calls them non national?
Seems to me the only people who take offense to a non offensive description is the likes of you and not the Non Irish.
Back to point he made. I agree. Anyone who travels abroad should be given a health check if coming back from countries that have this outbreak or can possibly come in contact with the virus,for their own health and ours.
Well if they’re non nationals and have been in one of the infected countries they shouldn’t allowed back in simple, British Airways are spot on banning all flights from infected countries!!
@ Paul, why not just call a spade à spade and say Sub Saharan East African,
I left out obviously after they’ve been fully tested and made sure they’re not infected before they bored a flight
Karen,
Well said. Return checks are not racist simply common sense and would of course apply to any “nationals” travelling
Look at all the African Taxi Drivers we have in Dublin.. Even if one of them was to come back infected he could have 15 or 20 customers a night for three weeks before he shows signs he has it..
Why not just say resident alien?
Bit of a Top Gear moment here Taxi, Clarkson would be thrilled!
@Cosmo the taxi driver in that case would not infect a single customer even if he was coughing hit guts up.
Let this be totally clear: YOU HAVE TO COME INTO DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE BODILY FLUIDS (VOMIT, BLOOD ETC) OF AN INFECTED PERSON IN ORDER TO GET THE ILLNESS
Even then , your odds of death are inversely proportional to how many particles you take in.
There is no need to quarantine anyone.
I believe we should just blood test anyone coming from the infected countries and not let them leave the airport until then, banning flights or the like is an overreaction.
So exchanging bodily fluids on money wouldn’t infect you?
Karen, I wouldn’t like to stretch your intellect, but “non national” implies they aren’t nationals – of anywhere.
Sure it’ll be “grand” attitude
Well ireland handled foot and mouth fairly well. I know it’s not the same but it did show a certain amount of competence that I wouldn’t normally associated with this country!
Someone actually crediting the country for competency instead of pretending it’s a “shur we’ll be grand” fantasy paddy land? There’s hope for us yet.
Only reason the Irish govt shifted on that was because it would hurt the beef industry…Nothing else…We saw the same attitude in the Iraqui invasion of Kuwait in the 1990s.irish citizens were abandonded in Kuwait and every effort was made to save a multi million punt iraqui beef deal,put together by another pair of crooks Haughey and Goodman.
So if SARS,ebola or airbone AIDS arrived in Ireland,the Irish govt wouldnt shift to save you,but if it threatned any bunch of cows being sold for meat.THEN it is a national emergency!!
When the rubber meets the road in a situation like this ,you will be on your own people.
That’s a very cynical view, normally I’d be the first one on here to call the HSE incompetent , cos they are. But thankfully other agencies like the OEM are in charge of leading on this and they have come up with excellent plans that would allow us to ride out such a pandemic even if it was airbourne.
All we have to do is declare a state of emergency, give people 4-6 hours to get shopping (masked) and get home, telling them to shop for as much as they can afford. Then close all places of assembly at the end of the few hours implementing a curfew enforced by the police and military, for all but essential staff.
Closing the ports, airport and intercity road and rail travel and keeping people out of places of assembly, with proper precautions in places of assembly (like hospitals, and that’s why they have isolation units) will be enough to blunt it’s cause.
Even in the case of pandemic influenza, even though up to 50% of the country might get it, less than 5% would be hospitalized from it and even less would die.
@Ryan .You are forgetting one human emotion in this scenario…PANIC!!
Declare a state of emergency/martial law as that is what it would need to be.Give people 4/6 hours to buy food while masked…Where do they get the masks first off?How much food will they be entitled to buy before the shops are swept clean in hour? We are a motorised society with people commuting between the urban and city centres,suppose somone panics and causes a massive pile up on the M50 Red cow junction??That being the major artery point of the Irish road network.Your emergency services will have to fight thru a massive tailback of panicky people ho are not going to be reasoned with and will be abandoning their cars and carrying their stuff on a 10 to 60 mile trudge home.
Next question,you will have to arm up thew Army and Gaurds to keep public order,how many Gaurds and army personel will be reporting for duty to collect their arms and NBC suit and quickly deserting with both to get home to protect THEIR fammilies??These situations are not hypothetical either both occured in the day of 9/11 and post Katrina.Its one reason PMCs were gaurding downtown New Orleans for about a month afterwards as something like 40 % of the police had deserted their posts and were looking after their own.
What happens if the multiple armed drug gangs in our cities decide its now open season on the AGS,and its time to claim turf with firepower?There is alot of illegal firepower out in Irish society,more than legally held guns,which no doubt AGS/army will be trying to confiscate under the pretence of “public saftey” Good luck coming for mine..All in all,I see your scenario too much like a offical govt document of table top exercises and expecting people to behave like reasonable docile sheep.
There is a rule of combat.The plan survives the first 60 seconds of contact with the enemy before it goes to sht!Something that disaster planning has not ever taken into consideration in Ireland.
The 2 American citizens infected brought back from Africa were brought to a hospital in Atlanta, one of the first ever scenes in ‘The Walking Dead’ was Rick waking up in a hospital in Atlanta after the virus outbreak,, just saying
Is this pandemic like the other pandemic scars that happens to be making headlines at the same time as other unjust wars over the past 12 years?
This has been totally discredited. They have left out so many variables, least of all the massive difference in the kill ratio.
I think as the article states tat the largest threat is to developing bounties. Here no matter how bad we have a healthy stem which ensures people infected get care quickly. Also the isolation system is a lot better. Just look at the pictures showing a victim being transported. All around him full protective suits, breathing apparatus, himself in an isolation case. In many development countries these would not have been available resulting in infection of helpers etc.
Look at the 2 us doctors who caught it and the suits they wear ?
Derek,
He obviously wasn’t wearing protective gear when infected.sto panic mongering it’s bad and risky enough without that
Can The Journal run the story about the CDC having a patent on the Ebola Virus that was filed in 2009? And why they were so adamant to bring two infected citizens into their country so they could patent this strain of Ebola too?
Here’s the patent
Careful now.
I think the table shows that it’s not the spread of any virus or disease that they’re worried about but the financial cost to the insurance industry. Described as a loss by them!
Any tables on a zombie apocalypse? I say being an island we would fate better than those in North and South American, Africa and mainland Europe. ..
:)
The walkers are coming ;-)))
have your say