AS THE CONFLICT in the Middle East continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly blocked, oil prices have begun to rise again. 

Crude oil prices rose beyond $87 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since a tentative ceasefire deal was reached between both sides, and as the US launched a third night of strikes on Iran. 

The Journal spoke to chief executive of Fuels for Ireland Kevin McPartlan to ask if we should be worried about seeing price rises at Irish pumps in the wake of this. 

He said that there is both good news and bad news for consumers.

According to McPartlan we probably “pay too much attention” to crude oil prices, both when they go up and when they go down.

This is because the impact of the price of a barrel of crude oil is reduced “when things are very volatile” – but he says it’s normally at least three weeks between purchase of a barrel and when it hits Irish forecourts as a refined product.

That means that although prices might jump day-to-day, we won’t feel increases at the pumps immediately.

The best news we have right now is that our fuel supply is in a very good state. 

McPartlan said the government has been successful in dedicating “appropriate resources to making sure that we can maintain more than adequate supplies of diesel, petrol, home heating oil, and aviation fuel, maritime fuel”.

“We have done a really good job in Ireland on that, and we’re in a better position than the rest of Europe” he continued.

As a result, he said that people shouldn’t worry about the availability of fuel in Ireland.

But what about how much it costs? 

Unpredictable

Although we have strong fuel supplies right now, continuing being able to afford them is another matter.

McPartlan said that prices increases at the pumps won’t happen for now because of the excise cut of 32c a litre in diesel and 27c for petrol that was implemented by the government in April after the fuel protests.

These cuts are what is keeping prices down for Irish consumers and are currently due to expire on 1 September. 

But he said that Ireland is now “getting close to” the situation that we were in “at the very, very height of this crisis”.

If excise duty were added back to the price of petrol and diesel today, McPartlan says that prices would be “well over” €2 – close to €2.10 and maybe even €2.15.

He did say this comes with the caveat that prices could drop again should the situation in the Middle East change. 

“You would be foolish to predict what’s going to happen in 24 hours, let alone in a month’s time.”