CSO to investigate 'discrepancy' of 84,000 homes in official estimates of private rented market

A “DISCREPANCY” OF approximately 84,000 homes between different state bodies’ estimates of the size of the private rental sector will be investigated by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The CSO hopes to shed light on how there is such a gap between its data and that of figures held by the Residential Tenancies Tribunal (RTB) on the number of households renting from a private landlord.

The Oireachtas Housing Committee is due to discuss the issue this afternoon, with the CSO, the RTB and an expert on the sector to outline their findings to date as politicians aim to achieve a “full picture” of the private rental market.

According to the CSO, it has recorded 330,632 private rented homes whereas the RTB has 246,453 registered tenancies in its 2022 data. It amounts to a difference of 84,179 homes. 

The inconsistency means it’s “unknown” whether the rental market is growing or shrinking, a housing researcher and lecturer will tell politicians.

According to Dr Michael Byrne, of University College Dublin’s school of social policy, social work and social justice, the discrepancy is likely due to tenancies going unregistered with the RTB.

All landlords are required to renew the registration of their tenancies to the RTB. Since 2022, they are required to do so on an annual basis.

The Journal reported last month on how only a fraction of renters had claimed their Rent Tax Credit, with Sinn Féin’s housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin pointing to the requirement for a tenancy to be registered with the RTB being a barrier for many tenants.

Byrne is also due to say that it is possible that some approved housing body (AHB) tenants are “mis-categorising” themselves as private tenants when completing the Census.

AHB tenants live in homes that are owned by charitable or voluntary bodies.

According to the Census, this figure is at around 1,000 homes.

“Due to discrepancies between RTB and CSO Census data, the current size of the private rental sector (PRS), and whether or not it is growing or shrinking, is unknown,” Byrne will tell the committee.

“Further research is required to address this uncertainty as it has crucial implications for policy.”

From his own research of clients who contacted renters body Threshold, he found that 52% of tenants are not registered with the RTB.

This “suggests that non-registration is a significant concern”, according to Byrne’s opening statement to the housing committee.

RTB concern

Director of the RTB, Niall Byrne, is due to tell the committee that he is concerned about the discrepancy and welcomes the CSO’s upcoming analysis of the figures.

“We share the concern of the committee that there are differences between the RTB’s registration data and the figures published by the CSO from the 2022 Census. We have been engaging with colleagues from the CSO on this matter since July,” his opening statement outlines.

Cormac Halpin, senior statistician for the Census, is due to appear before the committee to outline the work the CSO will undertake to discover the true number of private rental homes.

Halpin will TDs and senators that, “given the importance of understanding the discrepancies”, the CSO is proposing to undertake a “matching exercise” between the two organisations’ records to better understand the reasons for the differences between the published figures.

“It is possible that more informal letting arrangements, for example between parents and children, are captured in the census as private rentals but may not be registered with the RTB,” Halpin’s opening statement continues.

It’s expected the CSO’s analysis, which begins next month, will also reveal a geographical breakdown and more information on the characteristics of the households involved.

Cathaoirleach Steven Matthews said the committee wants to discuss the “scale of the difference” between the two figures held by the CSO and RTB.

“Members would like to hear a deeper analysis from the CSO and RTB on why this is the case and how their figures can be better aligned to give a full picture of the size and scale of the private rented sector,” the Wicklow Green Party TD said.

The growth in the private rental market has been tracked by the CSO, whose most recent Census found an almost 7% increase in households who rented from a private landlord, compared with Census 2016.

The 2016 figure was in turn a “more modest increase” of just over 1% of private tenancies reported in Census 2011.

Landlord ‘exodus’

Dr Michael Byrne will also question whether landlords are “fleeing the market” due to a lack of “accurate data” on the sector.

Changes in tax arrangements for private landlords have been flagged as part of the Budget in order to keep existing landlords in the market and attract new ones, Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien recently told The Journal.

Michael Byrne will tell the committee that while there has been much discussion of an ‘exodus’ of small-scale landlords, “it should be noted that the number of landlords leaving the sector is just one variable”.

“Even if many landlords leave the sector, the supply of PRS housing can
increase, either because landlords who are leaving sell their properties to new landlords, or because their exit is offset by new investment,” the lecturer will tell politicians.

His opening address adds: “However, in terms of official data it is very hard to assess the extent to which small landlords are indeed ‘fleeing the market’.”