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STORM CHANDRA BROUGHT flooding to parts of the East and Southeast as the latest named storm dropped heavy rain on already saturated land and high rivers, yet the only warnings people received were yellow weather warnings.
Last Sunday, I shared drone footage of the River Slaney after it burst its banks and warned of more heavy rain to come.
On Monday evening, I showed weather models forecasting over 100 mm of rain on the Wicklow Mountains and said there would be flooding, as rivers were already very high.
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Weather warnings issued by Met Éireann were only yellow for rain and wind, with no rainfall warning in place for Dublin. However, by 7:30 am on Tuesday, the Phoenix Park had recorded 30.3 mm.
The Met Éireann criteria for rainfall are 30 mm – 40 mm in 12 hours or less, or 30 mm – 50 mm in 24 hours.
However, that criteria do not take into account river levels or the amount of rainfall in the previous days or weeks, and the East and Southeast had already seen the average monthly rainfall for the entire month fall in the preceding 10 days.
The UK Met Office uses an impact-based system for its warnings, which takes into account many other variables.
While Met Éireann states in relation to its warnings that there are “Impact Considerations: These numerical criteria are strong guidelines but impacts from wind, rain, snow, etc., vary depending on location, recent weather conditions, the state of ground, the time of year, as well as the duration of the event”, it appears that the warnings issued for Tuesday either did not take these impact considerations into account or did not believe they were sufficient to increase warning levels.
Homes and businesses in Dublin, Wicklow, Wexford and Kilkenny were badly flooded on Tuesday, and for some of those affected, this has been a regular issue over the past 20 years. Calls for flood relief schemes and flood warnings have been made by many politicians across all parties.
I have been calling for flood warnings to be made public for several years now. The National Flood Forecast and Warnings Service (NFFWS) was announced in 2016, and in 2020, work began on a Flood Early Warning System. Since July 2021, a flood forecasting system has been available to Met Éireann, with a team of flood forecasters using and developing the system.
Since 2023, the Irish Flood Integrated Communication System (IFICS), developed by Met Éireann, has been used as an online platform to disseminate flood forecasts, weather and hydrological observations, and to issue Daily Flood Guidance Statements to local authorities and other state agencies.
However, none of these flood forecasts are made available to the public, so we do not know what they showed for Tuesday, and we will not know what they show for the coming days. Is it the case that even after five years since the system was first developed, it is still not ready to be shared?
That may well be true, as we still do not have any real-time weather stations recording rainfall data on the mountains that are catchment areas for our rivers. For example, we have no official weather stations on the Wicklow Mountains.
However, some private stations near Roundwood recorded 95 mm in 24 hours up to 10 am on Tuesday, with 342 mm recorded for the month of January.
With current river levels, past rainfall, high-resolution weather models and real-time rainfall data from stations, we should be able to use AI for something useful and produce river level forecasts and flood warnings.
The Office of Public Works (OPW) and Met Éireann have failed to provide me with any reasonable updates on when we will see rainfall sensors added to mountains or a warning system go live, with each organisation bouncing me back to the other.
We have been told by Met Éireann that this could take another 10 years, but how many homes will flood in that time with no warning, as we see more and more intense rainfall events as our climate changes?
Yesterday was too late for communities affected by Storm Chandra, we cannot afford to dither and delay any longer.
Alan O’Reilly is a hobbyist meteorologist and amateur weather forecaster working under the Carlow Weather account.
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