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Opinion Scrapping the Triple Lock is an ill-considered and potentially catastrophic step

Tom Clonan says if the Triple Lock is to go, we need an alternative that is workable.

THE JOINT OIREACHTAS Committee on National Security and Defence had its first public meeting yesterday on the proposed changes to Ireland’s Triple Lock contained within the Defence (Amendment) Bill 2025.

The committee was attended by a team of senior officials and the Assistant Secretary General of the Department of Defence. As the first day of pre-legislative scrutiny (PLS) by the all-party committee, there were a number of very interesting initial findings.

In the briefing note supplied to the committee and in the Assistant Secretary General’s opening remarks, the words ‘reform of’ and ‘modification of’ the Triple Lock were repeatedly used. The Triple Lock is the current mechanism, or safeguard, that is used by the Irish government to trigger the deployment of Irish troops abroad on international peacekeeping and peace enforcement missions.

This involves the requirement for a UN Security Council mandate, government and Dáil approval for deployment to international military missions. However, during the committee’s public proceedings, it became very clear that the proposed Defence (Amendment) Bill of 2025 will not modify the Triple Lock safeguard – it will simply remove it. There is no proposed alternative ‘lock’.

The question of the ‘lock’

This was confirmed to me and other members of the committee under repeated questioning. It also became clear that if enacted, the bill would ensure that the decision to ‘despatch’ Irish troops to future international peacekeeping and peace-enforcement missions would by a simple Dáil majority. In other words, there would be no safeguard in law to prevent any future government to send any number of Irish troops, to any conflict anywhere in the world – by a simple Dáil majority.

One TD present quipped that the Triple Lock was now being replaced by a ‘Harris Lock’ – alluding to the fact that any future cabinet could simply decide to ‘despatch’ Irish troops anywhere in the world by a whipped government vote.

It also emerged during the committee’s deliberations that future international ‘missions’ to which any government of the day can deploy troops at a whim – if this bill is enacted – would include UN, EU and NATO full-combat (peace enforcement) missions. It would also allow future Irish governments to deploy troops to EU or NATO missions with no UN mandate.

When pressed on this, Department of Defence officials confirmed to Senator Alice Mary Higgins that such a mission could include a so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ – or ad-hoc military force that might arise from time to time.

In the absence of the Triple Lock, I pressed the Department’s officials on what safeguards might be in place to prevent an injudicious or potentially disastrous military adventure for Irish troops. The answer was that any future missions would have to be in ‘the spirit of’ the ‘principles’ of the UN Charter and the ‘principles of international law’. When I asked who would make that call, I was told that it would be made by decision makers and experts within the relevant government departments.

A Triple Lock alternative

Unfortunately, from my perspective, these are the same ‘decision makers’ and ‘experts’ that have presided over the near collapse of Ireland’s current Defence Forces. The same officials and ‘experts’ who have left us with a naval service that can only deploy one vessel to sea, and an air corps that can only operate part-time due to predicted shortages of personnel and air traffic controllers. I would have zero confidence in such decision makers to make an informed or competent assessment of where Irish troops ought to be deployed in the event that this bill is enacted, past behaviour being the best predictor of future performance.

Ireland’s defence forces have been so badly let down by this community of decision makers, ‘experts’ and successive governments to the extent, as confirmed to me at the committee, that the largest military formation currently deployable by the Irish army is at company strength.

This is significant in that it means that for the foreseeable future, any Irish international deployments will come under foreign command at a higher level. If this bill is enacted, it means that Irish troops deployed on future international deployments will come under NATO or EU command.

In supporting and endorsing the removal of the Triple Lock safeguarding mechanism, many have put forward the view that the requirement for UN Security Council Mandate means that the five permanent members of the UNSC have a veto on where Ireland deploys its troops. This means that currently, individuals like Putin or Trump, could, in theory, veto the deployment of Irish troops to an internationally mandated UN mission.

Whilst this is the case for now, I would argue that in these circumstances, we should propose an alternative to the Triple Lock – another comprehensive oversight or safeguard that would replace the Triple Lock whilst protecting our sovereign decision-making process with regard to international peacekeeping and peace enforcement.

Simply deleting such a safeguard exposes Ireland to the future risk of unwise deployments and misadventure in international conflict. Whilst I trust our democratic process and our elected representatives, I am also aware that Irish governments are capable of groupthink and serious errors of judgement.

This was especially clear during the ethical and intellectual failures of the so-called Celtic Tiger, ‘Austerity’ and even more recently in the last governments catastrophic referendum campaigns. To err is human, but for any future Irish government to erroneously deploy Irish troops to an ill-advised conflict zone could have inhuman consequences.

The question of neutrality

Many proponents of abandoning the Triple Lock declare that it has ‘nothing’ to do with our militarily non-aligned neutral status. As a retired army officer, security analyst and academic with over 30 years of experience in this realm, such an assertion, to my mind, is akin to declaring that the brakes and steering wheel of a car are somehow unrelated. The decision-making process that Ireland mobilises to send our troops to an international conflict is intimately linked with our militarily non-aligned neutral status.

I believe that the scrapping of the Triple Lock is an ill-considered, ill-conceived and potentially catastrophic step. And apologies for the repetition – but as confirmed at the Joint Oireachtas Committee on National Security and Defence, enacting this bill would mean that any future Irish government can, at any time in the future, by simple government majority, deploy any number of Irish troops to any conflict zone. That is a seismic change in Ireland’s foreign, defence and security policy.

Many who have argued for the dissolution of the Triple Lock have claimed that at present we are limited to a maximum of 12 troops, should our Defence Forces be required to assist Irish citizens abroad in crisis. For example, in attempting to evacuate such citizens from a foreign airport like Kabul or South Sudan. It emerged in committee that the Triple Lock has no bearing whatsoever on humanitarian or crisis interventions by Irish troops abroad. Department officials confirmed, on the record, that the Triple Lock only applies to the deployment of Irish troops to a formally constituted international military mission. 

The National Security and Defence Committee will continue to carry out pre-legislative scrutiny of the proposed Defence Amendment Bill 2025 until mid-July. The next few weeks will no doubt shed a lot of light on a much neglected and abused area of Ireland’s polity – namely our defence, security and intelligence domains.

If this bill is guillotined by the current government and passed into law by simple government majority, as is the right of the Taoiseach and Tánaiste, I believe it would represent an error of judgement that seriously undermines our long-held tradition of militarily non-aligned neutrality. In such circumstances, I believe the Irish people, who have been given solemn declarations and commitments to uphold the Triple Lock by previous governments, will require a constitutional referendum to give constitutional expression and protection to our militarily neutral status.

In the meantime, the government as a matter of urgency needs to invest heavily in our army, naval service and air corps – along with significant and sorely needed recruitment and retention incentives – in order to provide security in our maritime, air, ground and cyber domains.

The highest level of ambition as set out in the recent commission on the future of the Defence Forces should be achieved at a very minimum. This would go some way to vindicating our solemn sovereign status as a militarily non-aligned Republic.

Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army Officer and former Lecturer at TU Dublin. He is an Independent Senator on the Trinity College Dublin Panel, Seanad Éireann.  

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