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IN THE RUN-UP to the 47th President of the United States’ 2026 State of the Union speech – the first of “Trump 2.0” – commentators argued that it would be inconsequential and seen by a relatively small audience, who already have entrenched views about the most controversial man on the planet.
That is probably underestimating its import, but having stayed up nearly all night to watch it, I do not believe that it will move the needle much with the electorate, if at all.
A poll of onlookers conducted by CNN immediately afterward reveals that 38% were very positive, 25% were somewhat positive and 36% were negative. It is foolhardy to extrapolate excessively therefrom. These voters are older and more conservative than the wider population. The 63% who were broadly favourable is a low figure by comparison to previous years.
A couple of non-political points are worth making at the start. Number one, and as was suggested by administration sources beforehand, at roughly an hour and 50 minutes, it was far too lengthy. Even allowing for Trump’s undeniable capacity to be entertaining and funny, whether one loves or loathes him, sitting through it was an endurance test.
Number two, it was quite embarrassing to witness the US Vice President and Speaker of the US House of Representatives leap to their feet at the close of every other sentence and, by so doing, implicitly order their GOP colleagues to similarly demonstrate their reverence for the boss. Standing ovations are an element of this annual occasion. There were too many this time, and they only prolonged the agony.
President Trump certainly kept the fact checkers busy with a litany of exaggerations, half-truths and full-on falsehoods. Plenty of his pronouncements – on the economy generally, on the benefits, legal basis for and prospective benefits of tariffs; on his role in resolving vexed global conflicts; on his achievements in combating inflation, such as the greatly reduced average price of a gallon of gas; etc. – do not survive serious scrutiny.
As is his gift, he nonetheless uttered them with characteristic bravado and in simple, digestible fashion to the key, albeit shrinking, “persuadable” demographic.
So, if this was not earth-shattering, was there anything significant to be gleaned from it? There were three potentially important harbingers of what we might expect to unfold in the months ahead of the crucial midterm contests on 3 November.
First, President Trump missed a trick by not acknowledging that, regardless of the positive top line data, millions of Americans are struggling financially, especially because the cost of many consumer goods remains exorbitant.
A considerable percentage of them, aggrieved by politics and politicians as usual, were a part of the extraordinary coalition that returned him to the White House in 2024. Trump promised to improve their lives.
The 79-year-old obviously doesn’t do empathy. Instead, he could have criticised his predecessor for the absolute mess he left and confirmed that, while it may be taking slightly longer than he had hoped, help is on the way.
His defenders will cite the beneficent initiatives he touted for families with young children and in the health care arena, yet a simple message of reaffirmation targeted at Middle America would have spoken volumes. In his mind, this would have constituted a partial admission of failure, though, and that is unconscionable.
Second, President Trump signalled strongly how he will seek to recapture those independents who have grown disenchanted since January of 2025. The grotesque behaviour of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents across the US outraged centrists and those without readily definable ideological perspectives, who endorse the deportation of criminals and thugs, not unjustified, violent aggression against their fellow human beings.
Trump thus seems to be pivoting back to what is popular. For instance, the image of Democrats refusing to stand when the president asked those who agree that “the first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens” to do so will be common in Republican attack ads. They will have an impact.
Advocating for federal legislation mandating that individuals establish who they are prior to exercising the right to vote will feature, as well as sloganeering with respect to the “trans agenda” and the gender identity of young people.
Surveys consistently show that these are “80%-20%” propositions and can be deployed to good effect by conservatives, though the culture wars are not at the top of the priority list for a majority of the citizenry.
Additionally, there will be an appeal to Americans’ innate patriotism. This was prominent at the State of the Union, with warranted salutes to the Olympic gold medal-winning men’s ice hockey team, war veterans and law enforcement officers. This may be intangible, but do not underestimate how influential it can be.
Third, President Trump was not clear about his intentions on the world stage. His prevarications and unpredictability are hardly new. Today, it is indicative of tension within his inner circle as to the merits of military interventionism in Iran or elsewhere and of the political reality, which Republican members of the US Congress are acutely aware of, that there is little appetite for it at home.
Trump’s love affair with tariffs continues unabated. What his bluster in the wake of a rebuke from the US Supreme Court will translate into is anyone’s guess. The big question here is if he is prepared to risk literally everything on tariffs, or might he heed admonitions from those desperately hoping to avoid the total wipe-out in November that further tariffs could exacerbate – and all that would flow from it?
Ultimately, this speech hasn’t altered the state of play. Trump and the Republicans are in dangerous political territory. A soon-to-be lame duck second term president would typically fade away at this juncture. Despite what some GOP candidates dearly wish in their hearts and say privately, that’s not a feasible option now.
Trump’s approval ratings may be hovering around 43%, yet he has to be to the fore, campaigning as if he is on the ballot to ensure that the base and those drawn to him for all sorts of odd reasons are energised. When he is not, Republicans fare poorly. The party that he essentially took over a decade ago has become reliant upon him for its success – or in this case, to help minimise the damage.
Democrats have ample cause for optimism at the moment. Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger’s response to the State of the Union was excellent. That said, they have an unfortunate penchant for political malpractice. And President Trump has pulled off the unfathomable twice.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.
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