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LAST UPDATE | 7 Feb
BACK FROM THE brink – eleventh-hour negotiations this week have avoided (for now) a devastating North American trade war. Originally due to take effect on Tuesday, Trump’s threatened 25% tariffs on Canadian goods and 10% levies on Canadian energy have been paused for one month.
In a powerful address to Americans on Saturday night, Prime Minister of Canada (for now) Justin Trudeau announced hard-hitting retaliatory measures. If the Trump tariffs are implemented after the 30-day reprieve, Canada will clap back with 25% tariffs on $155 billion of US imports and may also impose “non-tariff measures” on critical minerals and energy procurement.
Ireland knows what it is like to have one’s nearest neighbour and biggest trading partner suddenly turn inward and away from its friends, with potentially devastating economic – and diplomatic — consequences. The strongest response to geopolitical shockwaves like Brexit and a second Trump term lies in solidarity among like-minded allies. It is time to rethink international alliances not in terms of geography, but in terms of shared values – the time has come for a new and deeper relationship between Canada and the EU.
As it is, Canadian values are much closer to those of European democracies than they are to the US. From support for a strong social safety net to market regulation, universal access to healthcare, gun control, gender equality, a commitment to democracy and the rule of law, an acknowledgement of the need to address the climate crisis and an aversion to the death penalty – Canada is on the same page as the EU much more so than the US under Trump’s stewardship.
With Canada reeling from the prospect of the pain to be inflicted if the US tariffs commence, Canadian media is even floating the possibility of Canada joining the EU.
Such an idea may not be as ludicrous as it sounds, with a commentator from the Economist last month causing a stir by putting forward the case for ‘CanadEU’. The relationship, the argument goes, would be mutually beneficial. Canada is rich in natural resources but relatively short of people; the EU has a large working population – and needs a reliable energy source.
Such a drastic step seems unlikely, at least in the short term, and there are already examples of close collaboration between Canada and the EU. Trump’s approach to international relations is, however, a gold-plated invitation to explore a new strategic partnership that will leave less vulnerability to the vagaries of an unpredictable leader. This may not translate into expanding EU membership necessarily but could involve creative ways of deepening relationships between like-minded democracies on trade and more.
This will mean a fresh and concerted effort on both sides of the Atlantic to come up with creative methods of partnership. The EU-Canada relationship has faced hurdles over the past decade. The EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), for instance (the free trade agreement between Canada and the EU designed to reduce customs duties and non-tariff barriers to trade), became mired in controversy with 10 member states declining to ratify it (the Irish Supreme Court ruled that ratification of CETA would be unconstitutional in the absence of a change to Irish domestic legislation).
The punishing impact of the US’s new approach to international relations may, however, now act as a powerful incentive to focus minds on negotiating solutions to complex international agreements on trade and beyond.
Like any playground bully, Trump has a knack for sensing vulnerability and sets out to exploit it. At the time of his re-election, the Liberal party in Canada was in flux, with Trudeau announcing his resignation in response to mounting pressure, no new leader yet selected, and a federal election on the horizon.
Uncertainty also abounds in Europe, with the collapse of Germany’s coalition government on the heels of Trump’s victory and no end in sight to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Nerves have been frayed on both sides of the Atlantic in anticipation of what the US might do next. Trump thrives on panic and division, and this is what this round of threatened punitive tariffs is about. Canada and Mexico have had a short reprieve, but may soon feel the full impact of US tariffs, and Europe will not be far behind.
The threat to Ireland is real: the US runs a trade deficit with Ireland (one of Trump’s pet peeves) with pharmaceuticals and chemicals topping Irish exports to the US and making Ireland uniquely exposed to any imminent trade war. The large-scale production of pharmaceutical products in Ireland for the US market and Ireland’s booming trade surplus have already been called out by Trump.
Rather than wait and see what blow will be struck next by the US to its supposed allies, Canada and the EU would do well to take action, come together and explore a new phase of cooperation.
Dr Seána Glennon is an Irish lawyer and a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Ottawa Faculty of Law.
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