Readers like you keep news free for everyone.

More than 5,000 readers have already pitched in to keep free access to The Journal.

For the price of one cup of coffee each week you can help keep paywalls away.

Support us today
Not now
Wednesday 4 October 2023 Dublin: 14°C
# Podcast
The Explainer: Did the polls get it right in the US election?
We chat to polls expert Kevin Cunningham of TU Dublin to find out more.

THE COUNTING MAY still be going on in the US, but what we do know is that Joe Biden is set to become the next President of America.

In the months and weeks running up to last week’s event, we turned to polls to tell us what to expect. The polls had Biden looking likely to win Florida and North Carolina – which didn’t happen. They also said he had a chance in states like Texas, which also didn’t happen. 

Meanwhile, in the swing states that he did win, the margin was often smaller than expected. Nat Cohen, who covers polling for the New York Times, even went so far as to say that the polls this time around were worse than in 2016, when people thought Hillary Clinton was set for a win. 

But did the polls get it wrong? And is it possible for the polls to get it fully right?

To answer these questions and more, we spoke to Dr Kevin Cunningham, lecturer in politics and in the School of Media at TU Dublin, who is also an independent pollster.

Background reading:

The Explainer / SoundCloud

This episode was put together by presenter and executive producer Christine Bohan  producer Aoife Barry, producer and technical operator Nicky Ryan.

Your Voice
Readers Comments
This is YOUR comments community. Stay civil, stay constructive, stay on topic. Please familiarise yourself with our comments policy here before taking part.
Leave a Comment
    Submit a report
    Please help us understand how this comment violates our community guidelines.
    Thank you for the feedback
    Your feedback has been sent to our team for review.

    Leave a commentcancel