JIM GAVIN’S DRAMATIC withdrawal from the presidential election last night means that just two candidates will be campaigning for the first time in more than 50 years.

The 1973 election saw Fianna Fáil’s Erskine H Childers beat Fine Gael’s Tom O’Higgins by a four-point margin in a showdown between candidates from Ireland’s two biggest parties.

This time around, the battle between Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys and the left-backed independent Catherine Connolly will be along more stark ideological lines.

Gavin could still be on the ballot; the Electoral Commission said it is their understanding that voters will see Gavin’s name on polling day, though it may be up to the presidential returning officer and the Department of Housing to decide whether that happens.

The Presidential Returning Officer is due to meet with Attorney General Rossa Fanning this afternoon to discuss the matter.

The end of Gavin’s campaign effectively gives voters a straight choice as to who will become Ireland’s third female president.

So who is likely to benefit more?

Yesterday’s Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll had Connolly leading Humphreys by 32% to 23%, with Gavin trailing in third on 15%.

It also revealed that those voting for Gavin as the Fianna Fáil candidate would not automatically back Humphreys as Fine Gael’s candidate, despite both parties working together in government for the past five years.

Instead, the poll suggested that Connolly would win once Gavin’s transfers were distributed, putting her on 53% to Humphreys’ 47%.

But although Gavin’s withdrawal looks good for Connolly, there are two related factors which mean things are still all to play for.

The number of undecided voters in the poll – 31% – is just a point behind Connolly’s lead.

There’s still almost three full weeks of campaigning to go, so as Fine Gael steps up its campaigning there’s a potential many of the undecideds could opt for Humphreys, giving her a lead coming up to polling day.

Turnout could also be an issue if many of those who were going to vote for Gavin stay at home on election day, or if a chunk of those who are undecided do the same in a way that benefits either candidate.

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Ireland Thinks pollster Kevin Cunningham told The Journal that although the latest twist in the race seems better for Connolly, the election has become harder to call because a two-horse race changes the dynamic of the campaign.

“You’re going to have head-to-head debates instead of three-way debates, which will create additional drama,” he explains.

“It’ll be interesting how each sides starts to position themselves, and whether we see more specific attacks that happen as a result.”

There is also the potential for further twists and turns between now and polling day, which is nearly three weeks away.

Future debates, surprise revelations about either candidate, or more intense scrutiny in the lead up to the election could yet move the huge number of undecided voters towards one candidate or another.

Although Connolly may be the front-runner now, the dynamics of individual campaigns and the relative closeness of this race means the presidency is still up for grabs.