LAST UPDATE | 29 Nov 2024

THE TOP THREE parties have garnered very similar levels of support in this election, the exit poll suggests.

Sinn Féin is on 21.1%, Fine Gael is on 21% and Fianna Fáil is on 19.1%, 

The exit poll was commissioned by RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin and carried out by Ipsos B&A. 

RTÉ RTÉ

The rest of the parties’ support is as follows:

• Green Party 4%
• The Labour Party 5%
• Social Democrats 5.8%
• Solidarity People-Before-Profit 3.1%
• Aontú 3.6%
• Independent Ireland 2.2%
• Others 1.9%
• Independents 12.7%

Ipsos interviewed 5,018 people in 253 polling stations across Ireland immediately after they voted today. The margin of error is +/-1.4%.

It gives the best indication of how the electorate has voted, while also measuring the reasons and demographics behind the vote.

The exit poll surveyed people as they left polling stations, asking them to anonymously answer who they gave their first, second, and third preference to.

The figures above are based on first preferences.

It should be noted that the exit poll doesn’t predict the turnout, which can have a significant effect on the final vote.

Turnout in this general election appears to be slightly sluggish – with many local media organisations reporting a turnout between 50% and 67% as of 8pm, two hours before polls closed.

In the 2020 general election, turnout was 62.9%.

More rotating Taoisigh?

Our Political Editor Christina Finn has closely followed each of the parties’ campaigns over the last three weeks. Here’s her analysis of the poll results:

“If the exit poll is borne out in the actual result, it is pretty much deadlock. With these figures, and noting the margin of error, it could take four parties to join forces to form a government.

“The more parties you have the more unstable the next government could be.

“While Fine Gael had a poor campaign, Simon Harris will likely be happy to be coming in higher than Fianna Fáil, though Micheál Martin, who has made it very clear over the years that he is not a fan of polls, will be eagerly looking at the actual results tomorrow and hoping tonight’s poll is an underestimation.

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“Who is in the driving seat? Martin and Harris – if they agree to go back into government together. So are we looking at another rotating Taoiseach model? Possibly?

“It looks very unlikely, though not impossible, for Sinn Féin to form the next government.”

Second preferences

RTÉ RTÉ

When second preferences are looked at, Sinn Féin is at 17%.

Meanwhile, both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are neck-and-neck at 20%.

Here’s how the rest of the parties fared on second preferences.

• Green Party 3%
• The Labour Party 6%
• Social Democrats 5%
• Solidarity People-Before-Profit 4%
• Aontú 3%
• Independent Ireland 3%
• Others 2%
• Independents 14%