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AT THE TIME of writing, the world has absolutely no idea as to what is going to happen next in Iran. President Donald Trump’s messages are completely contradictory. Virtually simultaneously, he suggests that a ceasefire and a dramatic escalation are imminent.
Iranian leaders emphatically reject Trump’s claims that their country is effectively being demolished and contend that their enemies are negotiating with themselves. They mock Trump’s signature lines, employing “fake news” and “thank you for your attention to this matter” to convey their position.
How this conflict ultimately ends is anyone’s guess. The heat in the United States is increasingly on the commander-in-chief to call a halt to things. But Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of its-co-combatant, Israel, is driven by his zeal for regime change and looks to have a certain hold over President Trump. Further, for myriad reasons, it will be extremely difficult for the Americans to extricate themselves quickly. Iran ain’t Venezuela.
Rumours of backchannel talks being facilitated by nations in the Middle East are welcome. Whether they can succeed in the near future is unknowable. The spectre of US “boots on the ground” – once totally implausible – is no longer inconceivable. Of course, the dire consequences of the war are being felt by people here in Ireland and just about everywhere else.
What he has described as an “excursion” is, to be blunt, the single dumbest thing President Trump has done since his return to the White House in January 2025. It amounts to a wholesale repudiation of the America First rhetoric and connected pledge to not involve the US in “forever wars” that were so central to his appeal.
There was no coherent strategy. Hence, it is a mess. The best hope is for a relatively expeditious conclusion, with all that has transpired not having drastically worsened the situation as it was before.
Although the decision to attack Iran is his biggest mistake to date, President Trump has committed other significant blunders. And the blame lies solely with him. He has squandered the undeniably impressive mandate he garnered in 2024 (ie, he won all the key states) and alienated vital elements of what some of us envisaged could be a potent, albeit improbable, new conservative coalition.
His fervour for tariffs is inexplicable. Even if the bluster has outweighed the reality, the resulting tumult in global markets has adversely affected very many Americans. The explanations of their benefits proffered by Trump and his acolytes simply don’t add up.
The rogue conduct of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents on the streets of cities and towns in the US has enraged lots of voters in the middle of the ideological spectrum. They are the decisive cohort in elections, and they support deporting felons and violent criminals, not authorising masked, untrained individuals to terrorise people.
Now, ICE personnel are stationed in airports, an initiative Trump’s adherents praise in the name of passenger safety/convenience and his detractors characterise as unwarranted, targeted intimidation. Regardless, the president has largely forfeited the formerly enormous advantage he and the Republicans had on the issue of immigration.
Lastly, while no one on the planet, including its most powerful inhabitant, can control the ebb and flow of the global economy, these wholly unforced errors in Iran, on tariffs and on immigration have each contributed to Trump’s inability to keep a promise to quash the inflation he alleged was due to the incompetence of his predecessor, Joe Biden.
He occasionally cites the decreased expense of some consumer goods, but he definitely has not solved the cost of living crisis.
Owing to the foregoing factors and others, recent opinion polling – from Fox News, Pew Research, Quinnipiac University and Associated Press/NORC – reveals that President Trump is today in deep sh*t, politically speaking. His approval rating is mired around 40%. His disapproval rating, in the neighbourhood of 60%, is as elevated as it has ever been.
Robust majorities of those surveyed oppose the war in Iran, are dubious that it will yield tangible dividends and think Trump is not handling foreign policy well in general. Growing numbers of Americans are unhappy with his stewardship of the economy and believe the administration went too far on immigration.
Worryingly for Republicans seeking to hang onto or win seats this year, the negativity attaching to President Trump has trickled down. The Quinnipiac poll indicates that more than half of voters want the Democrats to be the majority party in the US House of Representatives. The aggregated data on RealClearPolitics.com shows that, when offered a generic choice between the GOP and the Democrats, respondents opt for the latter: 47.3% to 41.9%. That is a solid lead.
When combined with the historic precedent on how a second term president’s party typically fares in the midterms, an assessment that disaster looms for the entity Trump has made his own is hard to refute. Right-wing aspirants can, however, derive solace from the RealClearPolitics.com averaging, which reflects that 56% of Americans view Democrats unfavourably.
Those in battleground territory will also be praying that, as primaries in which progressive activists exert massive influence continue, their foes will select nominees who tick the purity box ahead of the electability box. Democrats are often accused of having a unique penchant for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
On a separate note, if Republican candidates find themselves in jeopardy, wounded by the unpopular guy at the top, will they attempt to subtly distinguish their priorities, their language and their character from his? It may seem shrewd at first blush, but they will be mindful that the MAGA movement, upon which they are dependent, doesn’t tolerate disrespect of the man they idolise.
Leftists posit that ICE’s ramped up presence at American airports is a precursor to the midterm contests. Federal agents will hover around polling places when citizens cast their ballots and dissuade the exercise of a civil right. To me at least, this remains an unlikely scenario. That said, it – and other types of direct or indirect interference with the democratic process – cannot be dismissed out of hand.
Leaving aside the merits, the morality and the repercussions, Trump 2.0 has been a case study in political malpractice. The raw politics of it is that he campaigned brilliantly, yet has done the job terribly.
The crucial political question at this juncture is how high a price will Republicans pay in November?
Larry Donnelly is a Boston attorney, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with The Journal.
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