END FUEL BLOCKADES or face the “full rigours of the law”, fuel protesters were warned first thing this morning. 

Justice Minister Jim O’Callaghan used this language in a statement this morning when he said large vehicles blocking critical infrastructure would be removed with the help of the Defence Forces, if necessary. 

By the end of the afternoon, the minister was telling reporters that those involved need to “cop on” and claimed they are being “manipulated by outside actors” such as British far-right agitator Tommy Robinson.

The commentary by senior government figures has dialed up a notch, with Tánaiste Simon Harris and Taoiseach Micheál Martin today saying that the deliberate disruption of major motorways constituted “national sabotage”. 

This sort of rhetoric is notable from the government who are often criticised for using woolly language around high-stakes issues. 

The protesters say they want a meeting, but government leaders have said it won’t be held to ransom. 

This is certainly an exceptional scenario for the coalition, but once you call it national sabotage, it’s difficult to see a meeting ever being held, or it resulting in any kind of resolution. 

Mixed bag 

On the ground, there appears to be a diverse group of people involved in the protest movement, although plenty are focused solely on the rising cost of fuel and the impact it is having on their livelihood. 

There is a genuine frustration among the public over fuel prices, but many of the larger farming and haulier bodies have chosen to stay in the room with government when it comes to dialogue, rather than joining the blockades.

The struggle facing the government today is avoiding painting a simple picture about these protests and blockades, but that is exactly the trap it has fallen into. They have chosen to put it down to ‘a few bad eggs’ when what is playing out is far from that simple. 

Hardline response from government 

Government sources have pointed to the ‘outsiders’ it claims are high jacking the situation, pointing to videos being shared online. One such video from Sligo shows a trailer with a rope and noose with a sign declaring: ‘Don’t let the tanks go dry, hang en’ high’, with the person in the video saying it is for those in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.  

It is that cohort which the government has set its sights on with its hardline response today. But by hyper-focusing on the extremes in this situation, is it ignoring another side of the room. 

One senior source explained the government’s rationale and thinking around its response to me earlier today. They said peaceful protests take place all the time, but the government views this as “very different”, as it is disruptive and preventing people accessing services.

Referring to some of the actions of the protesters as “thuggery”, they added that blocking depots from getting oil to forecourts was a “bridge too far”. 

While senior government figures said they understand that people are facing challenges due to rising fuel costs, everyone needs to play by the rules of a democracy, they added. 

Another said that while there had been no civil unrest or violence yet, there are very serious concerns about the impact of the blockades on a range of sectors. 

Much of these concerns and the possible scenarios that could play out if the blockade isn’t lifted was discussed by an emergency meeting of government agencies today. 

It heard that the blockading of the Dublin Port would result in food shortages and that there is a real possibility that a boil water notice could be issued next week due to the lack of chemicals for water treatment plants. 

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Other areas highlighted include medicine shortages, with the HSE stating that some patients were not able to get to dialysis and cancer treatment appointments. 

Officials discussed concerns around panic buying in certain areas, with worries that emergency services could be impacted, as well as halting of school bus services next week. 

In a nutshell, one source said a protest about fuel prices is now creating a real-world fuel access and public service emergency.

They added that this is not a fuel shortage crisis, but a blockade that is threatening critical services throughout the country. The very real possibility of these scenarios playing out is the government’s excuse for its response today. 

Martin, Harris and O’Callaghan are seasoned politicians and should know how to take the temperature of the nation. They calculated, together or separately, that these quite frightening outcomes would turn the public against the protesters.

But they didn’t factor in the wider economic situation, or the public’s perception of it. How many times have we heard recently that people in Ireland pay more for petrol and diesel than most of their counterparts in Europe?

Certainly, the support the protesters currently have could be lost if those real-world consequences play out in the next day or so, but the government also faces the possibility of further bolstering those involved in the blockade by putting all this down to ‘outsider thugs’ taking things too far. 

Answers to problems like this are rarely black and white. It is often the grey area in the middle where the majority can be found. Both sides will probably come out damaged in the end.