LABOUR IS EXPECTED to take a hammering in today’s elections across England, Scotland and Wales, with some pollsters predicting Keir Starmer’s party will lose 75% of the council seats they’re defending.

Throughout the day, voters will choose who they want to represent them in the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and in councils across England, in what are the biggest elections in Britain since the 2024 general election that saw Starmer sweep to power.

Six mayoral contests will also be held today, in or around the London area – Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Watford.

The prime minister’s party is under pressure from the right and left, with Reform expected to make significant gains in white working-class areas outside of London, while the Greens, under new leader Zack Polanski, are tipped to outperform Starmer in the capital.

Labour is also expected to suffer a historic defeat in Wales and see it lose further ground in Scotland.

Over 4,850 council seats across England will be filled in today’s election, 2,550 of which are currently held by Labour.

And while in previous elections the main opposition party could have expected to benefit from Labour’s misfortune, the Conservative Party under Kemi Badenoch is also expected to see significant losses, with one pollster predicting the Tories may lose up to 600 seats.

In Scotland, all 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs), Holyrood, are up for re-election.

Meanwhile, Wales is set to see the biggest shake-up of its parliament since powers began to be transferred from Westminster in 1999. The number of members of the Senedd (MSs) will be expanded from the current 60 to 96 representatives as 16 new constituencies are created.

Keir pressure 

So would a defeat on the scale being predicted signal the end for Starmer’s leadership?

That remains to be seen, but many think it will – including a growing number in his own party.

According to reports from the UK press, MPs are already plotting to oust Starmer once the dust has settled on today’s elections. 

It comes amid ongoing rumblings of potential leadership heaves by Health Secretary Wes Streeting, former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner or Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.

Allies of Rayner are confident she would be able to gain the support of the 81 MPs required to launch a challenge – a number which Streeting is also said to have met, though neither is said to want to be the first to move.

Meanwhile, Burnham has been tipped as a party favourite to succeed Starmer, but he would have several logistical obstacles to clear should he seek to mount a bid for No 10 – as he’s currently serving as Manchester mayor and is not a member of parliament. 

How to follow the results

UK elections don’t follow the same pattern as Irish votes, where results don’t become final until well into the next day – so we can expect some areas to tally and finalise results overnight before breakfast on Friday.

However, just 46 of the 136 councils up for election will be declaring overnight, which means we’ll have only a very partial picture of what’s going on come daybreak.

Those earlier declaring constituencies will all be based in England. Some are in areas tipped to go for Nigel Farrage’s Reform – so we will get at least get a relatively clear sense of how well the insurgent party has fared before other areas return results.

Reform leader Nigel Farrage is hoping for his party to make major gains across England and also overtake Labour in Scotland and Wales. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

No Scottish or Welsh constituencies will be reporting back overnight, so the picture of the pressure facing Starmer will only become clearer later on Friday, with most results expected to be in by 3.30pm-6pm that evening.

Surveys suggest Labour will lose control of the devolved Welsh government in Cardiff for the first time since the country got its own parliament 27 years ago.

A YouGov poll published in recent days showed Reform neck-and-neck with pro-independence Plaid Cymru.

That suggests that Labour’s share of the vote could plunge to just 12% – down 24 points on the 2021 election.

Losing power in Wales would be “disastrous” for the prime minister’s party, according to Laura McAllister, a politics professor at Cardiff University.

McAllister outlined to The Journal how Labour is suffering by losing voters to its left to the Greens in England and Plaid Cymru in Wales, while Reform is making strides by claiming not just previous Labour voters but also Tory support.

“We can pretty much bet now that Starmer will be the leader that loses Wales for the first time in a century,” she added.

The picture is not much better in Scotland; when Starmer entered Downing Street two years ago, Labour was confident it could regain power north of the border for the first time since 2007.

But polling now suggests the Scottish National Party (SNP) will extend its 19-year grip on devolved rule. If one recent YouGov poll becomes reality, then it would see Reform beat Labour to second place, no doubt resulting in further despair for Starmer and allies at the top of the UK Labour Party.

SNP leader John Swinney has said his party will resume its own independence push for Scotland if it returns with a majority, but surveys currently project that it may fall just a handful of seats short of that ambition.

Keir Starmer speaks during a visit to south London, whilst campaigning for the local elections. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Regarding the other major consequence of the results if they unfold as many now expect, McAllister said it’s set up to be “disastrous” for Starmer – but she does not expect him to lose his grip of the party’s leadership and Prime Minister’s office just yet.

“Do this push Starmer over the edge? I don’t think it does, because at this moment in time, they haven’t got a successor lined up. We’re in the middle of a very difficult economic environment, and Labour, traditionally, hasn’t got rid of its leaders in this way,” she said.

“I think they wait a little bit for the dust to settle, and for clarity over who might replace Starmer before they move. But either way, this is going to be a very, very troubling election for Labour.”