AT THIS STAGE on Saturday night the first seats have been decided and it’s become clear what way the wind is blowing. 

Here are a number of key takeaways from the first day of the election count. 

Fianna Fáil will actually come out on top (despite what the exit poll suggested)

Last night’s RTÉ/Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A exit poll had Fianna Fáil’s support at 19.5%, just behind Fine Gael on 21% and Sinn Féin on 21.1%. 

What’s become clear over the course of the day is that the parties will end up very close together – but not in the order that the exit poll suggested. 

Fianna Fáil look likely to be on top with 21.3%, according to figures compiled by pollster Kevin Cunningham and academic Stefan Mueller, followed by Fine Gael on 20.8% – and Sinn Féin on 18.7%. 

The margin of error of the exit poll is 1.4%, and so while we don’t have the final result for each party yet, it’s looking right now like Fianna Fáil’s result was underestimated and Sinn Féin’s support was overestimated by the exit poll, and both outside of the margin of error. 

Expect lots of theories trying to explain this over the coming days. 

A bad day at the office for the Green Party 

The Greens look set to lose up to three-quarters – and maybe more – of their Dáil seats in a bruising election result for the smallest of the government parties. 

Party leader Roderic O’Gorman says he expects the party to win only two or three seats, having gone into the election with 12. In an even more dire forecast, former leader Eamon Ryan has said it’s “going to be very difficult” for the party to win even one seat. 

“It is clear the Green Party has not had a good day,” O’Gorman told reporters this afternoon. 

O’Gorman is in for a fight for his own seat in Dublin West, where he battling for the fifth of five seats there, while junior ministers Joe O’Brien and Ossian Smyth have already lost their seats, among others.  

It begs the question: is it possible for a smaller party to go into government in this country without ending up being completely battered by the experience? Which brings us to… 

The Social Democrats are having a really good day 

The Social Democrats are on track to return all of their TDs, plus as of Saturday evening, they’re well-placed to bring a few new ones over the line too. 

One source within the Soc Dems told us that they’re hoping to break into double figures for the Dáil this time around, up from their current haul of six. 

That sounds ambitious, but a number of their candidates are in serious contention right now, including Elisa O’Donovan in Limerick City and Rory Hearne in Dublin North West. 

All of this may make them an attractive proposition as a potential coalition partner for the next government. 

The party made it clear that they have a number of red line issues – including a minister for disability – before they’ll even consider going into government. 

 Today is…. not Independents’ Day 

It seems to be a running themes of recent Irish elections that independents do extremely well in the polls. 

Independents did fine this time around – they look set to bring home just over 13% of the first-preference votes – but there was no big surge of support for them, like there was in previous years. 

There were also a number of high-profile independents who didn’t get over the line, including former Minister for Justice Alan Shatter and former Fine Gael TD Kate O’Connell.  

And it doesn’t look like it’s going to be a big day for the far-right either

Immigration was a huge issue in the local and European elections in June but its salience has faded this time around – and anti-immigration candidates have seen this in their vote shares.

High profile candidates who might have expected to do well look set to lose out on seats, despite doing well in the local elections. 

Independent candidate and Dublin City councillor Malachy Steenson remains in seventh place in Dublin Central on the fifth count and is not in contention for a seat in the constituency. Nearby, in Dublin North-West where independent candidate Gavin Pepper had been tipped to potentially take a seat, he is also currently in seventh place in the three-seater and does not appear to be in contention. 

The exit poll found that housing, the cost of living, and healthcare were the biggest issues by far for people when deciding who to vote for.