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“I’M TRYING MY best not to think about it.”
That was the response of one TD when asked what he thought about the imminent publication of the much anticipated Electoral Commission review of constituency boundaries.
The redrawing of some constituencies is likely to send shockwaves across the Irish political landscape when it is published on Wednesday morning, with many a TD anxious about what their future holds.
The changes are coming about as after every census there is a review of the composition and boundaries of the Dáil constituencies.
At the end of June, the CSO said Ireland’s population had increased by 8% to 5.15 million in Census 2022.
Our Constitution says that there must be, on average, one TD to represent every 20,000-30,000 people.
The newly-formed Electoral Commission has carried out a review of the boundaries of Ireland’s constituencies to ensure that this figure is met – and Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe has said there is “red-hot interest” across the political system for the upcoming completion of the electoral constituency review.
The fear among many politicians is that they could be the new Noel Rock.
Following a redrawing of Dublin North-West, Fine Gael’s Rock lost his seat at the General Election in February 2020.
Back in 2017, even before the election had happened, he described how he lost 20% of his voters “at the stroke of a pen” following the publication of the Constituency Commission report.
As the publication of the Electoral Commission’s report into constituency boundaries looms, TDs are also fearful that they could suffer a similar fate.
Speaking to reporters at Government Buildings last week, Donohoe said:
“When the maps come out and we will sit down to unfold the maps to see what the boundaries of our constituency are going to be, there is a red-hot interest all over the political system in what will be the conclusions from the Commission.
“There’s much speculation from many of my colleagues regarding what the maps will look like and I know that at the end of August, they are going to be poured over by all of us to see what it means for our futures.
“And I, like everybody else, await with great interest to see what those maps are going to be.”
Put simply, there were a number of five-seat constituencies around the country that are now simply too big to remain as five-seaters.
A perhaps ill-advised restriction was imposed by Government, meaning there can be no six-seaters created by the commission, therefore cementing the fate of some counties to be split in two.
Large counties such as Wexford, Donegal, and Tipperary – all five-seater constituencies – are predicted to be split into two three-seat constituencies.
As noted by Adrian Kavanagh from Maynooth University, this may not be a serious issue for voters in Donegal and Tipperary, whose counties were already previously two three-seat constituencies before the 2012 Constituency Commission report.
However, for the people of Wexford and its politicians, dividing the county between two Dáil constituencies will be a significant change.
It is largely the current five-seat constituencies, such as Carlow-Kilkenny, Dublin Fingal and Louth that will make seat gains, which could result in tinkering of the boundaries.
The speculation is that the Dublin constituencies will gain around five or six more seats, with potentially three seats being allocated to the Fingal County area.
This could result in a new constituency within the Fingal area being created.
Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien said last week that he was not fearful about what the outcome would be for Fingal, his own constituency, stating:
“I never get overly concerned personally as to what constituencies look like. We’ll obviously assess that next Wednesday and then you move forward.”
Implications for Carlow-Kilkenny could mean there could be two new three-seater constituencies, with Minister for Electoral Reform Malcolm Noonan previously stating that the constituency could be broken up in the next election.
While the commission is separate and independent to Government, splitting up Kilkenny into North and South was one of the suggestions made to the Electoral Commission during the consultation process, it is understood.
Some TDs who are in 4- or 5-seater constituencies now are concerned they’ll be in a 3 or 4 seater after the review, they said. This ultimately means it will be a tougher fight for them to win with less seats for the taking in their area.
Another TD predicted changes to the Meath East and Meath West constituencies, depending what happens to Louth, but they added that it is a matter of sticking a pin in the map as to what constituencies will be impacted.
“There will be winners and losers. I mean, there’s no doubt about it. Hopefully a lot more winners, but who knows? You know, we can only do our best,” Art O’Leary, the chief executive of the new permanent Electoral Commission told the Business Post newspaper recently.
What can politicians do if they are unhappy with the new constituency make-up? Not much.
There is no real recourse for anyone that has an issue with the redrawing of the boundaries.
While it has to be approved by the Government and Dáil, no one The Journal spoke to believed that a politician will realistically try and unpick the changes.
However, before then, nerves will be running high for politicians worried about whether with a stroke of a pen they too could be losing large chunks of their voters, just like Noel Rock.
Rock made a submission to the Electoral Commission ahead of its review, stating that Dublin North West – the constituency he previously represented – should get another seat so as to best represent the area.
Rock has gone on to be Director of Public Affairs at This is Red Flag, a strategic communications agency, showing there is in fact life after politics.
However, that will be little comfort to those politicians currently in situ, who fear they could end up fighting a losing battle in the next General Election.
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The Government really don’t care about the housing crisis and the impact it’s having on a whole generation. They have ripped the social contract to shreds in Ireland. Sooner they are kicked out of office the better, especially Fine Gael.
@Daryl Walsh: Couldn’t get a builder myself during COVID.
@zephyrum: We need to stop using excuses. As John Taffer says. “”I don’t embrace excuses, I embrace solutions.”
Our lot need to do better.
@Daryl Walsh:
Tell us where they are going to get the builders…
The Government don’t pay cash in hand..
@Jack Dermody:
Cash in hand comment is such a classic government apologist line.
Yea lets blame literally the only people building houses for the housing crisis.
The Irish government who pays 2 billion for a hospital has trouble finding builders??
Throw your vote in the bin come general election, it’s clear where its going.
@Jack Dermody: I have worked on many building sites over the years and know a fair few guys. And the number one thing that attracts workers is not pay, but a permanent job. All this bogus self employment has meant that a huge proportion of our workers have no reason to stay.or even come back. They may as well be working abroad than here week to week with no holiday pay and very few entitlements.
The government(s) have known about this problem for years and done nothing about it.
Apprentices, like medical staff, are gone as soon as they qualify
I’m sure it might suit some but if you want to keep people look at a long term building programme with secure jobs and you’ll get people.
@zephyrum: you couldn’t get a lot during covid….
@Jack Dermody: cut the social in half after 6 months.
There needs to be legislation to prevent these funds from being used to repurchase the 17,000 residences held by 10 corporations. The French people would not put up with so why do we?
There needs to be legislation to prevent these funds from being used to repurchase the 17,000 residences held by 10 corporations.
@Jimmy Donovan: we have become so accepting now to inept, immoral corrupt governments. The political system should be changed. People need to vote these lot out.
@Dave Barrett: and put the IRA in charge?
I think I’ll pass on that one.
@John Mulligan: maybe get your mentors in the FFG party to create the conditions to attract and retain people to the trades.
When there is a so called senior banker shortage Pascal is shouting for lifting their pay caps and reintroducing senior banker bonuses. But sure tha was always the FG way, now FF infected the same way.
@John Mulligan: Yawn yawn and more yawns..
So the question remains. How much DID they spend, and WHAT did they spend it on because it sounds like they done feck all in the last 100years never mind 3
I heard a builder say the problem overall are the sewage systems ..They do not have the capacity and it needs to be upgraded ASAP..to allow the building of more houses
@Marianne Sherlock: that’s certainly the case in my local area.
@Marianne Sherlock: that and the road network. I’ve seen particularly in Dublin large housing estates going up on narrow country roads which creates traffic havoc.
@Marianne Sherlock: there are no more houses allowed in my area until the sewerage system is upgraded.
Of course Ireland will need 50k new homes for years to come.
This is what happens when you needlessly vote for the same two right wing laissez faire capitalist parties over an over again.
Stop voting for self-harm.
That is a lot of money!
None of this makes sense!
Emergency powers should be used and that money should be spent.
@Michael Mc Gee: no emergency power You are playing into their hands
The whole thing is manufactured. The evidence is there. they did everything possible to create the problem, now is the reaction stage, the solution that will be offered will be the erosion and debasement of Article 43/ private property rights. They need enough people on the edge in dire situations to push that objective through. All deliberate, we are being played folks.
@Peter John McDaid: what is the ultimate goal of your conspiracy?
@Peter John McDaid: The right reaction would be to hand hang them outside the Dáil by the neck as a lesson to those that come after them.
@Craic_a_tower: It is clear to anyone with a modicum of intelligence that the govt created this situation. Undermining article 43 is the objective. Old couple that own and live in a three or four bedroom house, CPO them out. People that worked hard and own a second home, CPO it off them. The “greater good” etc.
@Peter John McDaid: it is weird how people look at the same details and come up with a different theory. Some think politicians are forcing house prices for their personal benefit while others think it so they will lose rights to their own property. Very strange thoughts given incompetence and populist policies explain it much more simply
@Peter John McDaid: Certainly Ireland could do with more townhouses so that people could afford to buy their own smaller homes. Okay to have theories but plenty of people would voluntarily move to smaller local homes if there were any available. No need to imagine dramatic scenarios.
How do you build during a lockdown?
@Emmet Murphy: Also how can you build if you haven’t enough construction workers?
@Emmet Murphy: Swear it wasn’t government that put us into lockdown
@Daryl Walsh: I’d say it was the pandemic, swears…
@Aidan Farrell: The question is how did a labour shortage ensue when one in four men in Ireland were working in construction until around 2009-10?
@Seamus Enright: the older generation were prepared to do manual work, today’s are more into third level and I.T ,how many apprenticeships do you hear of nowadays.
@Mark Sheehan: A pure waste of time working for free though Mark. Pay apprentices a decent wage and they will appear.
@David Corrigan: They should get paid a bit more than 80-90% of minimum wage alright though you don’t get paid anything for studying in University so the comparison is a bit invidious, particularly when you could still end up with less money after getting many college degrees.
Mind you, there seems to be plenty of labour to build hotels and we bend over backwards to allow companies like TikTok to build data centres because here because of all the construction jobs they provide, which I find the most bizarre thing of all.
@Emmet Murphy: Ireland had record homelessness BEFORE the pandemic.
You handily ignore that.
@Seamus Enright: A little thing like the property bust stopped building completely and many of the workers retired, emigrated or changed jobs to different sectors. It will take many years to get the employment numbers back to those levels. The only current way to increase the workforce is bring in foreign operatives which is not easy given our expensive accommodation and taxation system !!!!
@Chris Gaffney: With all the unemployed builders around at that time the government could have invested in public housing but they seemed to think that paying off 34% of Europe’s overall banking debt was a better idea.
The FFFG government has probably done this so as they can use the money to buy the election when it comes around.
24,000 homes built is more than enough houses for 11,754 people homeless. What am I not getting?
@Keith Twamley: Well the fact that there are thousands of people still living at home with parents, wanting to rent or buy that are not included in homeless figures, is just one thing you’re missing.
@Daryl Walsh: Numbers just constantly going up though, something doesn’t feel right. Needs to be a lot more transparency as to where all these houses are going.
@Keith Twamley: Those homes are being snapped up in bulk by the vulture funds Keith. They leave very little for the citizens to buy.
@Daryl Walsh: Garden sheds as a spare sitting room to have breathing space while saving up for a mortgage?
@Keith Twamley: by all accounts Ireland needs 50k new builds a year and HAS needed about that number for a decade…. But when you care more about landlords than any other voting block, supply and demand dictates you don’t worry so much about supply.
@Mise Eire: The trouble is that people do need to use a toilet and you can’t add one to a garden shed! They will be uninsulated as well.
Yet last week shovel ready school building projects were told they are halted due to budgetary constraints. In a week where corporation tax take is over a billion more than they thought and Darragh O Brien has a billion behind the couch, WTAF is going on here? Infuriating stuff.
No builders available? All I’m seeing is apartment block after apartment block spring up all over the place!
@Tony Harris: Agreed, and every affordable apartment has to pay maintenance fees into the bargain instead of doing their own.
How does this Country operate, when our planning/political/environment is in the toilet? As long as we keep the old parties like FF/FG/L/SF in existence and keep voting for them. We will never reach our potential, to be a great Country and where most things work properly. If it wasn’t for the EU, Pakistan would be in a better place than we are now.
All those modular homes that could have been built on state land,while eviction ban was in…..fast tract building…mindboggling.
Frightening how poorly informed the comments are , and how so many seem to have completely succumbed to populism. The next gov will be dealt the exact same hand and will also disappoint you . Why? Because the construction ecosystem has become impossiblly difficult (for Ireland & most other European countries) with some factors well beyond the control of governments. But hey, dont let a fact or two interrupt your rants.
@Paul Duffy: Ah don’t spoil their fun!!
@Paul Duffy: A fact or two? What fact or two? You haven’t given any, just criticised other posters.
“€1 billion left unspent by Govt on housing projects over the past 3 years” plus the massive amount of extra/additional overspend of Euro’s the cash cow to developers that is the new national hospital is costing….€1 billion is equal to 2,800 building units costing €350,000 each to build from scratch to completion. €350,000 spread over let’s say 30 years equals to €11,666 per year or just over €970 per month. This figure is way way below the average rent paid by tenants to private landlords. Now if the Govt became landlords and spent €1 billion on 2,800 housing units they would receive €2.7 million per month in rent.
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