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“I’M TRYING MY best not to think about it.”
That was the response of one TD when asked what he thought about the imminent publication of the much anticipated Electoral Commission review of constituency boundaries.
The redrawing of some constituencies is likely to send shockwaves across the Irish political landscape when it is published on Wednesday morning, with many a TD anxious about what their future holds.
The changes are coming about as after every census there is a review of the composition and boundaries of the Dáil constituencies.
At the end of June, the CSO said Ireland’s population had increased by 8% to 5.15 million in Census 2022.
Our Constitution says that there must be, on average, one TD to represent every 20,000-30,000 people.
The newly-formed Electoral Commission has carried out a review of the boundaries of Ireland’s constituencies to ensure that this figure is met – and Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe has said there is “red-hot interest” across the political system for the upcoming completion of the electoral constituency review.
The fear among many politicians is that they could be the new Noel Rock.
Following a redrawing of Dublin North-West, Fine Gael’s Rock lost his seat at the General Election in February 2020.
Back in 2017, even before the election had happened, he described how he lost 20% of his voters “at the stroke of a pen” following the publication of the Constituency Commission report.
As the publication of the Electoral Commission’s report into constituency boundaries looms, TDs are also fearful that they could suffer a similar fate.
Speaking to reporters at Government Buildings last week, Donohoe said:
“When the maps come out and we will sit down to unfold the maps to see what the boundaries of our constituency are going to be, there is a red-hot interest all over the political system in what will be the conclusions from the Commission.
“There’s much speculation from many of my colleagues regarding what the maps will look like and I know that at the end of August, they are going to be poured over by all of us to see what it means for our futures.
“And I, like everybody else, await with great interest to see what those maps are going to be.”
Put simply, there were a number of five-seat constituencies around the country that are now simply too big to remain as five-seaters.
A perhaps ill-advised restriction was imposed by Government, meaning there can be no six-seaters created by the commission, therefore cementing the fate of some counties to be split in two.
Large counties such as Wexford, Donegal, and Tipperary – all five-seater constituencies – are predicted to be split into two three-seat constituencies.
As noted by Adrian Kavanagh from Maynooth University, this may not be a serious issue for voters in Donegal and Tipperary, whose counties were already previously two three-seat constituencies before the 2012 Constituency Commission report.
However, for the people of Wexford and its politicians, dividing the county between two Dáil constituencies will be a significant change.
It is largely the current five-seat constituencies, such as Carlow-Kilkenny, Dublin Fingal and Louth that will make seat gains, which could result in tinkering of the boundaries.
The speculation is that the Dublin constituencies will gain around five or six more seats, with potentially three seats being allocated to the Fingal County area.
This could result in a new constituency within the Fingal area being created.
Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien said last week that he was not fearful about what the outcome would be for Fingal, his own constituency, stating:
“I never get overly concerned personally as to what constituencies look like. We’ll obviously assess that next Wednesday and then you move forward.”
Implications for Carlow-Kilkenny could mean there could be two new three-seater constituencies, with Minister for Electoral Reform Malcolm Noonan previously stating that the constituency could be broken up in the next election.
While the commission is separate and independent to Government, splitting up Kilkenny into North and South was one of the suggestions made to the Electoral Commission during the consultation process, it is understood.
Some TDs who are in 4- or 5-seater constituencies now are concerned they’ll be in a 3 or 4 seater after the review, they said. This ultimately means it will be a tougher fight for them to win with less seats for the taking in their area.
Another TD predicted changes to the Meath East and Meath West constituencies, depending what happens to Louth, but they added that it is a matter of sticking a pin in the map as to what constituencies will be impacted.
“There will be winners and losers. I mean, there’s no doubt about it. Hopefully a lot more winners, but who knows? You know, we can only do our best,” Art O’Leary, the chief executive of the new permanent Electoral Commission told the Business Post newspaper recently.
What can politicians do if they are unhappy with the new constituency make-up? Not much.
There is no real recourse for anyone that has an issue with the redrawing of the boundaries.
While it has to be approved by the Government and Dáil, no one The Journal spoke to believed that a politician will realistically try and unpick the changes.
However, before then, nerves will be running high for politicians worried about whether with a stroke of a pen they too could be losing large chunks of their voters, just like Noel Rock.
Rock made a submission to the Electoral Commission ahead of its review, stating that Dublin North West – the constituency he previously represented – should get another seat so as to best represent the area.
Rock has gone on to be Director of Public Affairs at This is Red Flag, a strategic communications agency, showing there is in fact life after politics.
However, that will be little comfort to those politicians currently in situ, who fear they could end up fighting a losing battle in the next General Election.
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We have more politicians and civil servants per capita than any other EU country, and what have we to show for it?
@Jules Verne: Mattie McGrath
@Jules Verne:
Around 14% of the Irish workforce is in some form of civil service, well below the EU average of 17%.
As of 2020 we are ranked 20th of 27 when it comes to percentage of civil service vs total workforce.
Highest was Sweden at 29%.
@Jules Verne: no we don’t, but we have plenty of clueless who post made up facts.
@P.J. Nolan: I wonder what the quality of the services in Sweden are compared to this puzzle factory?
@Jules Verne: the Healy Rae comedy show.
@Roj Blake: It is sad that the most thumbed up comment is a simple factual falsehood that can be debunked with a tiny effort in research.
@P.J. Nolan: it’s not 14% it was 22% when last reviewed in 2019.
@David Corrigan: Quality of services is much higher, but then again taxes are also much higher. Things tend to operate properly in Nordic countries and they are progressive in their outlook. The racists here would say that immigration has ruined Sweden, but what would they know.
@Jules Verne: still not the highest % in Europe. Can you share where you got the 22% figure from.
So that is why Regina from east Meath has moved her constituency office to Skerries in North County Dublin. I only hope that people remember the disaster she was when Minister for Social Protection. Anyone remember Seetec?
@Patrick Presley: A bit harsh on Mattie , does a lot of good work for people in Tipperary.
@Jules Verne: Maybe you mean ‘national’ politicians? Many European countries have local councils, town councils, regional representatives, etc. All we have are ineffective county councils, ineffective because the have limited revenue raising powers.
@P.J. Nolan: Shhh. Don’t let horrible facts interfere with a person’s bias.
@Sean O’Dhubhghaill: well, yes but , when planning permission was within the powers of local and county councils , we all saw what happened there (in a time when the TD could also be a county councillor too )
@Jules Verne: Eamon Ryan
@Sean O’Dhubhghaill: You talk as though the relatively new “property taxes” weren’t enough for county councils?
How about a referendum to reduce the number of TDs required, far too many of them already and if the population keeps increasing as forecast we’ll end up paying for over 200 of them in another few years
@Treasa Kerrigan: Agreed, but the price of this would be the breaking up or combining of counties for electoral purposes (to ensure that all votes counted roughly equally), which many politicians and members of the public might be unwilling to accept.
@Brendan O’Brien: no. Counties are already split or combined to produce constituencies with roughly equal population per TD.. Amending the constitution to specify a maximum number of TDs would increase the population per TD, but there is no reason that it would require more splitting or combining of counties than now.
@Brendan O’Brien: We could try and come up with some kind of nationwide proportional representation system.
No I’m not about to make a fool of myself trying to design one oin the comments.
@Treasa Kerrigan: can we include a reduction in salaries in those referendums!!
I really want to see Varadkar gone. He is one odious politician.
@Canada Goose G Dog: I’d have 1000 Leos any day over a single one from the Shinner criminal gang
@Roj Blake: nothing honest about him.
@Canada Goose G Dog: My idea of an odious politician is one who eulogises terrorists who blow themselves up on a London bus, and politicians who give standing ovations to the murderers of Detective Garda Jerry McCabe. Check out Sinn Fein IRA.
@Roj Blake: ah stop,
It’s not 1986 any more.
Move on with the times!
@Roj Blake: The reason you consider Varadkar honest…He has the Attorney General to get him off the hook everytime he F..ks up.
@Nick Murphy: you must be a Garda yourself, because your constantly on here sinn Fein bashing bringing up jerry McCabe, the British army commited plenty of atrocities around the world throughout history, people still adore the royal family even with their past, so what’s your point? I certainly will not be voting for the same clowns again that have our country ruined, not saying I’m gonna vote SF either,
@colin power: I am not remotely interested in the British royal family or their adorers. And as regards Sinn Fein bashing their TD’s gave a standing ovation to the murderers of Garda Jerry McCabe. In my opinion people like these excuserers of terrorism are not fit for public office in my country and I will continue to voice this opinion. And by the way our country is far from being ruined, thats just a silly sound byte.
@Nick Murphy: Wonder why you only mention murders perpetrated by the IRA.. The murders carried out in Dublin/Monaghan bombings were done with the aid of British intelligence. The British state loyalist murder gangs , the collusion between RUC and these murder gangs. Of course this does not suit your narrative. Straight from the handbook of FFG.
@Donal Desmond: Everything you say is true and inexcusable on the part of the British Government. But my issue is that I do not want Sinn Fein / IRA in government in my country.
@Donal Desmond: Ridiculous comparison – the British State and Loyalist murder gangs are not running for political office in this country.
@Roj Blake: I’m no Shinner but I wouldn’t go that far . They do have one or two hard working local councillors and the odd TD , with no links . As for Leo ? Whatever talent he has , his PR people do a poor job showing it . Heard from good people that he’s impressive to deal with but as a Minister he’s done little , all sound bytes while minister for transport and health
@colin power: unless you have posts from the chap that you are relying to where he celebrates the Brits or the Monarch , as usual , with Shinners, irrelevant whataboutery . Whatever about the late 1960s-mid 1970s , there was no justification for the Provos. They were an enemy of THIS State. They and the INLA killed multiple members of the GARDAI and then tried to run off back up to the border (partitionist when it suits) or the US to escape arrest . Many of them never came close to spending 20 years in jail, all out under the GFA . The Provos distant themselves from the BANK ROBBERS (or was it a post office?) who killed McCabe . Protested that it was unsanctioned ,yet under GFA the act was “political” rather than criminal. People have long memories and SF refuse to condemn it
@Donal Desmond: FFG ? Who are they ? A new party or are you illiterate ? The Irish State aren’t in a position to lecture the British . The State went decades refusing to accept requests for Extradition of suspected IRA men (who were illegal in this State ) who committed crimes in Britain and NI , under the notion that it was all political offences . It’s well known that Provos hid in our towns and cities too before they killed civilians in the North . The dog on the street knows about the collusion with Dublin. The Irish State held their own Tribunal (Barron Report) clearly reading ain’t your thing
@Nick Murphy: That’s up to the electorate..Wonder why you are not so vocal on the British government that to this day refuses to hand over documents concerning the Dublin/ and other murders perpetrated by the British State. It certainly does not suit your narrative to go down this road..The revisionists agenda only portray one side of the conflict, which is yours… If SF is elected, it’s called democracy..The same Democracy that FFF and their allies the British government sprouted about…Perhaps the result of SF government does not suit your form of democracy.
.
.
@SYaxJ2Ts: Think you would want to check the history of the DUP…if you don’t want to vote SF that’s your choice….They are many who will. Largest Party in the Six Counties.
.Second largest party in the Free State..by one uncontested seat…
.
@Christy Dolan: The refusal to extradite people for political activities was correct. As for my reference to FFG the held power since the foundation of this state. Along with successive British governments buried the heads in the sand concerning the apartheid state that existed in the six counties. They hypocrisy of them shaking the hands in horror when it erupted..The collusion between Irish governments and British governments and security forces was treason.
@Donal Desmond: I didn’t express a voting preference either way, so not sure what you’re on about. And I don’t see how the DUP are relevant to this conversation – are they running candidates in the Republic? News to me if they are
@SYaxJ2Ts: If you criticise SF in the six counties, then you could check their opposition. At the end of the day it’s the electorate who will decide who will for a government. SF in the six counties are the same party in the South. Remember Martin spouting about FF contesting elections in the Six Counties…That poor effort didn’t last long…As for FG their natural allies in the Six counties are the Unionist parties…You may not think so , but that’s the fault of Varadkar who again opened his mouth without his brain being in sync.
@Canada Goose G Dog: nothing honest about that Leo either
So, if our population is up 8% shouldnt we have 8% more hospitals, schools, doctors, houses, apartments. You know, important stuff.
What are we getting instead? More politicians?
Its so so wrong. Now theres more money going to overpaid under worked people on fat pensions.
The World needs a reset we’ve done/are doing it wrong.
SOMEONE HELP SAVE OUR BEAUTIFUL PLANET.
@Denis Rathsallagh Brady: Make that 10% more of all those things for each 8% increment in population. Then eventually we’d actually have enough.
Referendum needed to reduce the amount of tds to a lovely round figure of 100. Way too many already
@Barry Lee: don’t forget to mention senators,county councillors,who do what, only God knows
Sure one just has the look at the adulations of the crowd in the picture above. Becoming a politician in this country is like winning the lottery every other week. We have more of them per head of population than any other nation on earth. They are corrupt and rotten to the core, even those with good intentions to begin with soon find themselves feeding from the tax payers trough.
@Tom L: No, we don’t, but we do have an abundance of clueless shrills who post made-up facts.
@Tom L: Whats worse than you being wrong, is that 245 people agreed with you.
‘……take away their voters.’ If the parish pump didn’t have such an overwhelming influence on Irish national politics this problem wouldn’t exist.
@Sean O’Dhubhghaill: All politics is local. Nature of the beast.
We need less TDs not more, cut the bureaucracy and make them deliver for the ordinary people who vote them in. Stop unvouched expenses and control costs.
Why is yer man massaging Pascals goolies in the pic ?
Is that another free TD perk ?
Free wotsmebits massages ?
Yes a stroke of a pen come next election will change this political landscape for FFG forever
Take away their voters, take them off the gravy trail they mean
We need a referendum, absolute joke that we are required by the constitution to have one TD per 20-30k people. Increase it to at least one per 50k, it’s one per 99k in the UK.
@The Firestarter: I’d very much prefer not to have a Healy-Rae as my only representative, given that they seem unavoidable.
Joking aside it’s a delicate balance between effective representation and having a manageable number in the Dáil/parliament.
Flip it the other way, the UK manage a parliament of around 600 proving that it can be done (matter of opinion about how well) , think how fine grained the democratic representation would be if we had that many TD’s.
totally agree with you barry lee but i even think 100 is still too many
We need to move away from this broken system to sortition where our representatives are chosen randomly like jurors. That would do away with the career politician and the drama around elections, electioneering, lobbying and corrupt politicians
@Franno: Agree.
@Franno: I like this system with one addition. There should be an open ended recall petition on each selectee – when it gets enough signatures (validated like votes) they’re out.
However this system does have one glaring weakness. The senior civil servants would likely have effective control not the selectees.
@Christy Dolan: who determines how the “jurors” are selected ? What qualifications do they have ? Jurors are also not randomly selected . They get called , and the lawyers can object to the selection of 7 candidates called out , no reason needed
@Christy Dolan: The pool of jurors is by random selection from eligible citixens both sides can reject up to seven jurors who will be replaced by another random selectee.
There are a bunch of ways of being exempt from jury duty, some automatic some have to be claimed otherwise it’s mandatory if your number comes up.
Gerrymandering is what it was known as.
@BL Music: you might want to review the remit of the independent electoral commission before you embarrass yourself further
No no. Surely no more. The ones we have are useless humon beings. So why we want more. All there to feather there retirement nest.. Cosy cartel. Ohhh yes and for me hole and mc grath to make sure cork get anything is going.
@John Flanagan: Try learning to spell and how to use correct grammar, then go educate yourself on how our electoral system works.
@Roj Blake: ohhhhh nasty arnt u. Maybe it’s best if I say no more. I have a feeling u are a very bitter and toxic man. Stlll u don’t prove anything by been insulting. But there again we are in a democracy arnt we. Mmmm
@Roj Blake: Stop hiding under that username, we all know you are Ste Kearon and understand why you embarrassed by that..
@John Flanagan: pointing out that you haven’t a clue as to what you are talking about and that you should educate yourself on the electoral system , is not being nasty ! Grow up! You’d be laughed at in a crowd of informed people .
What annoys me is,when they come looking for votes,and when I vote for them,if u have to contact them,its yes il get that sorted,and u never hear back,especially if your dealing with your local County Council and u have a Council house,they take no responsibility anymore for their houses,if u have a problem with water,Irish water will not come inside your gate,and the Council will say it’s Irish water,and now they are taking no responsibility at all of your house,I live alone,have no family and disabled,I’ve a big lawn out the back,and loads of bushes coming through,I’ve worked since I was 11,done everything myself,im 54 thats how we were brought up,now having to ask for help,is soul destroying,I pray know one ever has to end up like me.when all u no is been independent to lose that.
@Kathleen Peters: sounds like your issue is with your local council, not members of the Dail. Plus all councils do have responsibility for maintenance of their properties
@Kathleen Peters:: Kathleen go to the National Advocacy Service, the Journey wont let me post the link!
They will help you as they will Advocate for you and they understand all the red tape.
@William slevin: democracy in Ireland. There was a time u could say that. But no more. We don’t have one now. Because all the people who make up democracy only care about one thing. Themselves. That not democracy. Homelessness, drugs, assault on the citizens and state agencies doing what they can to hoodwink the country. Democracy my arse.
@John Flanagan: Sadly that is one of the characteristic weakness of democracy, it’s open to manipulation by the silver tongued. The other is its tendency to be corruptible.
It’s the worst system of government known, apart from all the others so far tried.
If you want efficient and effective government you need an unapposed benevelont dictator with great wisdom and compassion. An eternal stream of such people doesn’t seem possible to arrange – we’d be lucky to find one.
I rather like the suggestion that any scheme of selecting leaders will do perfectly well provided it excludes those who want the job or at least denies them any advantage in getting it.
Nobody has tried one like that yet.
There’s enough leeches already, let them work for it
I’m definitely voting for FFG again, shinners are toxic
@Mary Toilet: such a hero
@Shaun Gallagher: I know, have a lovely day
@Mary Toilet: thanks
@Mary Toilet: at least you are an honest neo liberal me feiner who recognises that they are one political entity that Maggie Thatcher would be well at home with.
@Mary Toilet: With the name Toilet…Were you ever in Brighton? ..Are you the ghost of that old bitch Thatcher? How are you finding the heat?
@Mary Toilet: they’ve done that much damage at this point with housing and health you might as well put them back in to keep going it’s that bad it’ll be next to impossible to sort now anyway
Divination of treason ffg
Imagine if we used our brains, kept ffg on the side lines, and elected a left of center government who looked after its citizens rather then money
Why pick on Leo. There’s plenty more out there.
@Pato: He is a scourge, 5th count or 8th count to ‘get in’ it was clear the people didn’t want him/them ff/fg but still they worked the loopholes most average Joe’s haven’t a notion about.
@Tom L: yawn, try learning about the PR-STV system
@Tom L: And you claim to be a scientist? Varadkar was elected under the electoral system like everyone else, with no ‘loopholes’.
@Tom L: sf for years got in on the last count,that never mattered then,it was always ‘he got in didn’t he’…pearse Doherty got in on the ninth count once.but all of a sudden when it’s reversed slightly it does matter and people want first past the post system.
@John Terry: It is one of the benefits of the Irish system that allows the existence of smaller groups, or independents. Such people have a chance of being elected, resulting in both greater diversity in the Dail, and less polarisation, and allows smaller groups a chance to demonstrate to the electorate what they stand for, and the possibility of growing their vote share.
But it is pretty unusual that the leaders of the traditionally largest parties do not get in on the 1st count.
It is extraordinary that it took so many counts to elect those leaders.
@Tom L: A seat won with a quota and a half is of the same value as the last seat won without reaching the quota, its called PR our electoral system. Educate yourself before spouting rubbish.
@Nick Murphy: The same value to the TD.
But not to the voters.
@Roj Blake: in using our PR system only vote for like minded candidates. Only those calling for real change and likely to support a non FFG government.
Then stop. Give no preference whatsoever to FFG or those who support them in government. The entire ballot DOES NOT NEED TO BE FILLED COMPLETELY.
@Pato: Perhaps Varadkar has the Attorney General to get him off the hook like Zappone gate..The leaking of confidential government documents. Varadkar would be gone long ago only he is needed to keep Martin in power. That is Varadkar’s political use..nothing else.
@M Bowe: very few people completely fill the ballot paper, plus papers for the Shinner criminal gang seldom if ever have any other preferences on them. All of us who value democracy and foreign direct investment will continue to vote for the parties that generate jobs and certainly won’t be giving preferences to the Shinner criminal gang, nor the hard left
@Roj Blake: what rubbish is that?? Ballot papers in ALL electoral areas contain ALL names of candidates in that area. No single party can say who is on that paper.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: Patent nonsense. In the 2020 general election the quota in Dublin West was 8726 Leo Varadkar got 8478, 248 votes short of the quota. He was comfortably elected after reaching the quota. Therfore he was the choice of the voters in Dublin West. Educate yourself about our electrol system.
@Roj Blake: You mean vote for the parties that facilated the banks in the economic destruction of this country. The same parties that used taxpayers money to bailout the banks. The same taxpayers who had austerity forced upon them to repay for the gangsterism of the banks. Are the political parties you speak of the corrupt FFG.
@M Bowe: When you do this what you are in effect saying is this:
“If it comes to one of this lot I don’t care which of them it is.”
If you think about it you probably do.
@Tom L: maybe try and educate yourself on how our electoral system works before typing nonsense
Given the nature of the species, the less of them the better.
It’s not losing voters these parasites are worried about, its losing €150,000 a year for doing nothing
When was the last time you had occasion to go to any of your local representives ? They only act in peoples interest to tell them what they are already intitled to. All local one stop political advise shops were closed down, why ?. Ireland needs less T.D’s., less County Councilors, less Senators, and less town representives..
They think that’s what will take their voters?
@Joe x: I know they are so out of touch its utterly dumbfounded right!!!
Their actions or lack of them have taken away their voters!!
.
Really…..their actions or lack of them having taken away their voters!!
People are constantly saying we should have less politicians.
Some years ago, people were presented with a referendum to take away the 60 senators in the Oireachtas and abolish the Seanad… people voted to RETAIN all those senators in their jobs and keep the Seanad!!!
Hard to win sometimes!!!
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With your acceptance, certain characteristics specific to your device might be requested and used to distinguish it from other devices (such as the installed fonts or plugins, the resolution of your screen) in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly fraudulent activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots), and ensure systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be used to correct any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may encounter in the delivery of content and ads and in your interaction with them.
Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.
Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet connection on both devices).
Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the purposes exposed in this notice.
The choices you make regarding the purposes and entities listed in this notice are saved and made available to those entities in the form of digital signals (such as a string of characters). This is necessary in order to enable both this service and those entities to respect such choices.
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