“I’M TRYING MY best not to think about it.”
That was the response of one TD when asked what he thought about the imminent publication of the much anticipated Electoral Commission review of constituency boundaries.
The redrawing of some constituencies is likely to send shockwaves across the Irish political landscape when it is published on Wednesday morning, with many a TD anxious about what their future holds.
The changes are coming about as after every census there is a review of the composition and boundaries of the Dáil constituencies.
At the end of June, the CSO said Ireland’s population had increased by 8% to 5.15 million in Census 2022.
Our Constitution says that there must be, on average, one TD to represent every 20,000-30,000 people.
The newly-formed Electoral Commission has carried out a review of the boundaries of Ireland’s constituencies to ensure that this figure is met – and Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe has said there is “red-hot interest” across the political system for the upcoming completion of the electoral constituency review.
The fear among many politicians is that they could be the new Noel Rock.
Following a redrawing of Dublin North-West, Fine Gael’s Rock lost his seat at the General Election in February 2020.
Back in 2017, even before the election had happened, he described how he lost 20% of his voters “at the stroke of a pen” following the publication of the Constituency Commission report.
As the publication of the Electoral Commission’s report into constituency boundaries looms, TDs are also fearful that they could suffer a similar fate.
Speaking to reporters at Government Buildings last week, Donohoe said:
“When the maps come out and we will sit down to unfold the maps to see what the boundaries of our constituency are going to be, there is a red-hot interest all over the political system in what will be the conclusions from the Commission.
“There’s much speculation from many of my colleagues regarding what the maps will look like and I know that at the end of August, they are going to be poured over by all of us to see what it means for our futures.
“And I, like everybody else, await with great interest to see what those maps are going to be.”
Put simply, there were a number of five-seat constituencies around the country that are now simply too big to remain as five-seaters.
A perhaps ill-advised restriction was imposed by Government, meaning there can be no six-seaters created by the commission, therefore cementing the fate of some counties to be split in two.
Large counties such as Wexford, Donegal, and Tipperary – all five-seater constituencies – are predicted to be split into two three-seat constituencies.
As noted by Adrian Kavanagh from Maynooth University, this may not be a serious issue for voters in Donegal and Tipperary, whose counties were already previously two three-seat constituencies before the 2012 Constituency Commission report.
However, for the people of Wexford and its politicians, dividing the county between two Dáil constituencies will be a significant change.
It is largely the current five-seat constituencies, such as Carlow-Kilkenny, Dublin Fingal and Louth that will make seat gains, which could result in tinkering of the boundaries.
The speculation is that the Dublin constituencies will gain around five or six more seats, with potentially three seats being allocated to the Fingal County area.
This could result in a new constituency within the Fingal area being created.
Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien said last week that he was not fearful about what the outcome would be for Fingal, his own constituency, stating:
“I never get overly concerned personally as to what constituencies look like. We’ll obviously assess that next Wednesday and then you move forward.”
Implications for Carlow-Kilkenny could mean there could be two new three-seater constituencies, with Minister for Electoral Reform Malcolm Noonan previously stating that the constituency could be broken up in the next election.
While the commission is separate and independent to Government, splitting up Kilkenny into North and South was one of the suggestions made to the Electoral Commission during the consultation process, it is understood.
Some TDs who are in 4- or 5-seater constituencies now are concerned they’ll be in a 3 or 4 seater after the review, they said. This ultimately means it will be a tougher fight for them to win with less seats for the taking in their area.
Another TD predicted changes to the Meath East and Meath West constituencies, depending what happens to Louth, but they added that it is a matter of sticking a pin in the map as to what constituencies will be impacted.
“There will be winners and losers. I mean, there’s no doubt about it. Hopefully a lot more winners, but who knows? You know, we can only do our best,” Art O’Leary, the chief executive of the new permanent Electoral Commission told the Business Post newspaper recently.
What can politicians do if they are unhappy with the new constituency make-up? Not much.
There is no real recourse for anyone that has an issue with the redrawing of the boundaries.
While it has to be approved by the Government and Dáil, no one The Journal spoke to believed that a politician will realistically try and unpick the changes.
However, before then, nerves will be running high for politicians worried about whether with a stroke of a pen they too could be losing large chunks of their voters, just like Noel Rock.
Rock made a submission to the Electoral Commission ahead of its review, stating that Dublin North West – the constituency he previously represented – should get another seat so as to best represent the area.
Rock has gone on to be Director of Public Affairs at This is Red Flag, a strategic communications agency, showing there is in fact life after politics.
However, that will be little comfort to those politicians currently in situ, who fear they could end up fighting a losing battle in the next General Election.
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