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Sasko Lazarov

Exit poll: Fianna Fáil surge but it's bad news for Fine Gael-Labour coalition

The first exit poll is in.

FINE GAEL AND Labour look to be well short of an overall majority after today’s General Election, according to the first exit poll.

The Irish Times reports that the coalition parties have a combined 34% of first preference votes.

Fianna Fáil are on 22.9%, suggesting there was something of a late surge in support for them, while Sinn Féin are on 14.9%, and Independents appear to have taken 16.1% of first preference votes.

Interviews for the exit poll were conducted by Ipsos MRBI with people leaving polling centres after casting their vote.

We can’t make totally accurate predictions about Dáil seats yet, because tonight’s exit poll only takes into account first preference votes.

Results:

If tonight’s exit poll turns out to be accurate, it would suggest a combined fall in support for Fine Gael and Labour of 21.7% of first preference votes since 2011 – a massively significant decrease.

2011vs2016

On the basis of these numbers, Labour could see its support collapse, falling by more than half, from 19.5% five years ago, to 7.8% today.

Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin will have seen a gain of around 5% each, but perhaps the biggest story of Election 2016 could be the rise of Independents and the smaller parties.

In 2011, Independents, People Before Profit, the Socialist Party and the Greens got a combined 16.1% of first preference votes.

Tonight’s exit poll, however, suggests that with the addition of the Social Democrats and Renua, support for Independents and the smaller parties may have rocketed, by more than 12% – from 16.1% to 28.6%.

2011vs2016ind

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347 Comments
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    Mute jaisus
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    May 12th 2015, 3:22 PM

    Wait for it…
    The Chinese….
    a great bunch of lads…..

    411
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    Mute Dave Foley
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    May 12th 2015, 3:22 PM

    I swear I was just about to write that hahaha

    144
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    Mute BlueSkyThinking
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    May 12th 2015, 3:37 PM
    86
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    Mute Gisbert Bayertz
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    May 12th 2015, 5:20 PM

    I wanted to write that :-)

    17
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    Mute Jimmy Murphy
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    May 12th 2015, 3:28 PM

    Why the hell do world governments stockpile weapons that can kill everyone on earth, including themselves?

    Where’s the logic in that?

    211
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    Mute Jimmy Murphy
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    May 12th 2015, 3:29 PM

    Hasn’t Mad Max & The Terminator thought us anything?

    :-)

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    Mute Sean O' Shea
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    May 12th 2015, 3:47 PM

    Perhaps it’s cause there’s a good bit of money in it, they cost billions to build and maintain more than likely will never ever be used and have to be replaced every 30 yrs which means more money again for those who build them

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    Mute Scipio Africanus
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    May 12th 2015, 3:54 PM

    They experts appropriately call it MAD. Mutually assured destruction. It just highlights the idiocy of mankind.

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    Mute danielplainview
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    May 12th 2015, 3:59 PM

    MAD’s mentioned in the west wing. Great show, great show. If only he were president now. He’d put those chinese in their box.

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    Mute Hermes
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    May 12th 2015, 4:00 PM

    The leaders of mankind Scipio … they cover up murder , rape and paedophilia and still the media keep their mouths shut – A good insight in how humanity is being led down the wrong path and the main players involved in it is the “Franklin Cover-up ” in the States !
    There’s an unaired documentary on it on Youtube !

    17
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    Mute Ryan Anth
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    May 12th 2015, 4:12 PM

    MAD is not really in use anymore.

    China has a No First Use policy which means they would only use their weapons in retaliation. Their SLBM capability is not much compared to the US though it is developing, and most of their ICBMs are concentrated in mountain regions that would be easy to destroy in a first strike (that’s why the want the subs, they mean you can’t destroy their nuclear forces in a first strike)
    Diff countries want them for diff reasons.
    -Russia wants them to compensate for their decaying conventional forces
    -Iran wants them to secure themselves against a US invasion (though they are nowhere near having them)
    -Israel wants them to ensure it can’t be invaded and wiped off the map
    -The US was the first to develop them and as long as others have them they will never give them up
    -Pakistan and India want them to deter each other
    -The UK wants them so they are not dependent on the US in the event of a major crises that involves nuclear weapons
    -France had them to deter a soviet invasion and can’t really figure out why they want them anymore

    There is also the element of childish nationalist ‘pride’.

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    Mute SteoG
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    May 12th 2015, 4:19 PM

    Security Dilemma anyone?

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    Mute Ryan Anth
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    May 12th 2015, 4:46 PM

    It should also be noted that SLBMs are actually a stabilizing factor, I know that sounds mental but you need to think of it in the logic of how a nuclear exchange would work. I’m gonna use the Russian example here to illustrate this

    Say the Russians decide for some reason (maybe they are loosing a conventional war) to hit the US with a counterforce strike (just against military targets), and they say any attempt at retaliation will result in another strike which takes out the cities. So now you have a US president on Marine One on his way to Dover Air Force base or some other base that’s not Andrews (which will be a target) with the football open and some young sweating Navy Lt Commander beside him telling him there is 100 ICBMs coming in, on the radio STRATCOM tells him it looks like a counterforce strike against CONUS only…but that still means 9m or so civilians will die.

    Does he retaliate? The strike is going to include his ICBM bases, so he can’t decide to just wait it out and think for a while first, because within 15 min he has to use the missiles or loose them. He decides he has to use them, because this will be his only chance to retaliate. He fires back, things escalate, the second Russian strike comes…and off we go down the rabbit hole.
    However if he has 10 Ohio Class subs out there he can say I don’t need the ICBMs, and I have a few extra hours to think this through first,

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    Mute Pearse Mc Mullen
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    May 12th 2015, 5:14 PM

    Well put Ryan, Pretty much sums it up.

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    Mute Mark Hosford
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    May 12th 2015, 6:29 PM

    Ukraine is the only country ever tovoluntarily get rid of their nukes – ( with a signed statement from NATO and Russia that no -one would mess with them ) – few teething troubles there -

    20
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    Mute Ryan Anth
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    May 12th 2015, 8:55 PM

    South Africa actually got rid of 8-9 old style atomic bombs after them, that they co-developed with the Israelis

    7
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    Mute gerard devany
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    May 13th 2015, 1:31 AM

    Jim Murphy
    Wouldn’t surprise me if 99% of them were mock ups, you have got to have some way of explaining where all the money goes.

    1
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    Mute Paul Doyle
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    Jun 5th 2015, 7:47 AM

    Superpowers don’t stockpile nuclear weapons to “kill everyone on earth (including themselves)”…the point of stockpiling nuclear weapons is to have a survivable, credible counter-strike capability after the first (second? or even a third?) wave of the enemy’s incoming nukes have detonated, many of which will likely take out quite a few of the other side’s nukes. But they won’t get all of them.

    Then there should be plenty left over for a revenge strike, the thinking goes.

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    Mute Jonathan Stapleton
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    May 12th 2015, 3:52 PM

    Sure we will be grand with the amount of Chinese food we order in we are practically family

    116
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    Mute Gavin Lawlor
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    May 12th 2015, 3:29 PM

    But could they beat George Groves in front of 80,000 people in Wembley?

    93
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    Mute Sheik Yahbouti
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    May 12th 2015, 3:28 PM

    This is a problem which has been brewing, and which I have watched with alarm, over the past ten plus years. ~China now owns over half of Africa, and if they cared to call in which America owes them – game over! However, I don’t want to be racist about this. For a small country like our own it appears to matter little if America owns us, the IMF owns us, or the Chinese owns us. I have philosophical differences with the Chinese, but they are just fulfilling the basic imperatives. The real problem is capitalism and the way the sheer ownership of money or debt essentially gives you ownership of the world.

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    Mute Jimmy Jim-Jim
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    May 12th 2015, 3:37 PM

    The debt owed to China by the US is in the form of government bonds issued for a fixed period of time, so they can’t be called in early.

    51
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    Mute Jason Culligan
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    May 12th 2015, 4:11 PM

    Actually, ownership of debt puts you in a vulnerable rather than powerful position. Especially when the country who owes you the money controls how much that money is worth. The US could, in theory, dump the value of their currency tomorrow and render the debt owned by China worthless.

    Ownership of debt is a lot like gambling, it can pay off if that debt is paid on-time and in full but it can just as easily backfire on you and end up being worthless.

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    Mute gerard devany
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    May 13th 2015, 1:36 AM

    Jason C
    ” Ownership of debt is a lot like gambling ”

    Unless your an Irish Bank or Bondholder.

    1
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    Mute Hermes
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    May 12th 2015, 3:25 PM

    Is this C.I.A propaganda or what ? …….Spreading fear of the outsider while they bug their own congressmen and women illegally within !

    48
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    Mute Jason Culligan
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    May 12th 2015, 4:34 PM

    No, just making public facts which have been known by anyone paying attention for some time now. The expansion and attempts to modernise the Chinese military have been no secret, in some cases (e.g. the purchase of the Varyag) even being quite prolific.

    19
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    Mute everlast mccarthy
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    May 12th 2015, 3:22 PM

    It’ll land with a mighty T’pau!

    46
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    Mute Hermes
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    May 12th 2015, 3:23 PM

    China has the perfect Army (as if there were such a thing ) …All the Hardware , a Secret Service that no-one knows the name of and enough men to soak all the bullets in the planet !

    Peru is according to conspiracy theory the bolthole for the Elite if they are found out – Like the Nazis going to Brazil kinda thing !

    36
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    Mute John Reese
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    May 12th 2015, 4:30 PM

    Reminds me of a quote form the peacemaker: “I’m not afraid of the man who wants ten nuclear weapons, Colonel. I’m terrified of the man who only wants one”

    34
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    Mute Deco James Connolly
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    May 12th 2015, 3:40 PM

    Why would they bomb the consumers of Chinese produced products .

    31
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    Mute Declan Byrne
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    May 12th 2015, 4:01 PM

    Why are the Chinese spending hundreds of billions of dollars year on year expanding and upgrading it’s military ? That does not portray a country with long term ambitions for peace. There is no threat to the Chinese and it makes no sense for this large modernization and expansion of its military which is on going nearly a decade now. If I was Taiwan I would be worried along with many others.

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    Mute Hermes
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    May 12th 2015, 4:01 PM

    Because they paid in an increasingly worthless Dollar is perhaps one reason ………..

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    Mute Jason Culligan
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    May 12th 2015, 4:15 PM

    Declan, the Chinese have resented the power which the US holds in the Pacific for a long time. They also have border disputes with Japan, Taiwan, Mongolia, India and Russia. I doubt they would want to start a war with anyone, merely using their large military as a threat rather than an instrument.

    Much the same as the US and USSR did to each other back in the day, bullied or invaded small countries while the fear of mutual destruction kept them safe from one another.

    25
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    Mute Ryan Anth
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    May 12th 2015, 4:19 PM

    They are not planning on bombing them, they are planning for some future US president becoming militaristic (imagine that!…) and being agressive towards China so they can deter him/her.

    Most people forget what the Bush admin was doing before 9-11, remember the sply plane? After that all the rhetoric about a ”new cold war” this time with China? The neocons were gearing up for a second cold war, even though China is nowhere near as strong as the USSR was (Even today), it’s not a mad notion that this could happen again. Esp when you project forward, the US is likely to get more economically and socially unstable (the entire country is one wallpapered over series of massive cracks) and what do govts do then? What did Argentina do? You distract with jingoistic nationalism and war.

    19
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    Mute D H
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    May 12th 2015, 4:48 PM

    Everyday the american media talk about how china is fast becoming their global rival on all fronts from the global economy to militarily, from the space race to exporting weapons to regional control of the pacific nations to common currency used for trading on the stock markets. Then the unquenchable thirst for the worlds natural resources which has seen china become big players in both africa and the middle east. Seeing as america is the dominant military power of the world and they have a history of starting wars, whether cold or active shooting wars, then the chinese probably feel that they do have a need to modernise and build up their military power. Im sure they understand the vulnerability of america owing them so much money and what would happen if america forfeits, which would likely signal the start of WW3

    13
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    Mute Fran McCarty
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    May 12th 2015, 8:12 PM

    Just get it over with. All talk,no action! Sissy chatter.

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    Mute gerard devany
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    May 13th 2015, 1:34 AM

    Declan Byrne
    They spend a pittance compared to the US, the US government need a new excuse to take more money from its people, this is a good cover story.

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    Mute Julian King
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    May 12th 2015, 3:25 PM

    I’d insert some pun here but China banned puns and I don’t won’t to be in their bad books…
    http://uk.businessinsider.com/chinas-orwellian-ban-on-puns-2014-12?r=US

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    Mute Banana Rama
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    May 12th 2015, 3:39 PM

    Aren’t humans great.

    19
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    Mute Hermes
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    May 12th 2015, 4:03 PM

    Remember the Chinese handed Uncle Sam his own ass in Korea – McArthur the raving homicidal maniac wanted to use nukes because the Chinese couldn’t be defeated by “conventional” methods !

    18
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    Mute Jason Culligan
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    May 12th 2015, 4:22 PM

    Actually, the Chinese were seriously defeated on multiple occasions by UN forces in Korea. After the Chinese forces ran out of steam after their first offensive, they never managed to regain the momentum and UN forces exacted a serious toll from the Chinese in the trench warfare that followed.

    The only thing the Chinese managed to achieve in the Korean War was to give the UN exactly what they initially wanted, a maintenance of the status quo.

    20
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    Mute John Brendan Mullen
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    May 12th 2015, 5:27 PM

    I bet they won’t be targeting Craggy Island, with it’s large Chinese community

    18
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    Mute Christopher Quinn
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    May 12th 2015, 3:23 PM

    a great bunch of lads! (please dont nuke us!)

    18
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    Mute Diarmuid Mac Suibhne
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    May 12th 2015, 3:31 PM

    But do they have spud guns?

    17
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    Mute Symbolism
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    May 12th 2015, 3:49 PM

    They’re not great with rice

    22
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    Mute Seaghán Corcoran
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    May 12th 2015, 3:36 PM

    Can’t we all just get along?

    16
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    Mute Shane Russell
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    May 12th 2015, 3:23 PM

    Sure it’ll be grand, they’re a great bunch of lads.

    14
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    Mute Chris Bruton
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    May 12th 2015, 3:30 PM

    Someone already said that.

    58
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    Mute Cupid Stunt
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    May 12th 2015, 4:16 PM

    I mean that’s all we bloody need now, isn’t it.

    12
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    Mute jaisus
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    May 12th 2015, 3:38 PM

    Not good. On par with the N word relating to black people.

    12
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    Mute jaisus
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    May 12th 2015, 4:01 PM

    The derogatory comment was deleted. Leaving my comment in limbo. Thanks journal.

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    Mute Neal Ireland Hello
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    May 12th 2015, 4:05 PM

    Can we at least give them some credit for not using them?

    9
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    Mute Jason Culligan
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    May 12th 2015, 4:16 PM

    Do you honestly think that China wouldn’t use nuclear weapons if they were the only ones who had them?

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    Mute Ryan Anth
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    May 12th 2015, 4:20 PM

    Nobody has ever used thermonuclear weapons because they are not nuts. This is all about geopolitics and mind games they are not really meant to ever be used, they are just very dangerous bits on a chess board.

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    Mute Ray Farrelly
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    May 12th 2015, 4:52 PM

    I hope there chinese copie’s they’ll break down before they hit the target.

    9
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    Mute cosmological
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    May 12th 2015, 3:48 PM

    Does this move the fabled clock closer still to midnight?

    8
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    Mute TotalScrotal
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    May 12th 2015, 4:58 PM

    Just finished reading command and control by Eric schlosser. It’s only by pure luck a H-bomb hasn’t been accidentally detonated in the USA, scary to think what it’s like in some more volatile nuclear states

    7
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    Mute Justin Gabriel
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    May 12th 2015, 3:49 PM

    Isint it awful about da poor people in china”’ what poor people in china maarttiin?? Da chineesee :-)

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    Mute Aindi Purfield
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    May 12th 2015, 6:32 PM

    Not about picking on China btw.

    America is worse than anyone of them-no criticism or sarcasm directed at America in this article though, which is telling.

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    Mute Paul Smith
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    May 12th 2015, 7:16 PM

    Very good me old China

    2
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    Mute Saul Goodman
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    May 12th 2015, 6:37 PM

    What a joke, stupidity at its best. You have a hurling stick, I have a golf club, you take your best shot and hit me in my arm, I hit you back you yours, you hit me again in my legs, and I’ll do that too, the one in the stomach and I follow, we’re both on the floor bleeding and in our last gasp of energy, I hit you in your face and you hit me back knocking us both down. No winners

    2
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    Mute Aindi Purfield
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    May 12th 2015, 6:31 PM

    Smaller governments and ‘third way’ nations need to stand up at the UN and start a campaign for nuclear disarmament.

    If nobody criticises these countries then of course they will continue this lunacy until a Nuclear war breaks out.

    Frank Aiken was the man behind the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty, whatever else people might think of him, and it was a very good idea. But he saw it as a stepping stone to limiting the power of superpowers to continue nuclear weapons production and in time to get everyone to agree to reduce their stockpiles.

    Why can’t anybody in the 150 odd non-superpowers stand up and demand gradual global disarmament? What happened to smaller countries banding together and being the watchdog?

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    Mute Paul Culligan
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    Aug 13th 2015, 9:48 PM

    They can all go and ask me 不要相信所有的炒作!!!!

    1
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