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Analysis: It's worth remembering FF and FG support is strongest among homeowners, not renters

If the Taoiseach had gone on the radio and said the government were going to set up an “alternative system” to how we set house prices in the country all hell would have broke loose. But those remarks would never have been made.

COMMENTS MADE BY Taoiseach Micheál Martin caused a ripple effect of uncertainty among those living in the rental sector last week. 

Over the last seven days, those in the opposition slammed the Fianna Fáil leader for putting the fear of God into renters, who they said are now “bracing themselves” for rent hikes come the end of the year. 

On Sunday, speaking on RTÉ Radio One, Martin outlined that a review of the rental sector is taking place and that an “alternative system” to the Rent Pressure Zones (RPZs) could be in the cards, stating that the new scheme will “protects renters” but also, more notably, create a “stable environment in which to invest”. 

He later rolled back slightly on the remarks stating that he never mentioned the words abolition or scrapping of the RPZs, stating that he can’t control the “noise” that is espoused by the opposition on the matter. 

However, what the Taoiseach does have control over is whether he makes throw away remarks that strike fear into those in tenancies. 

It is probably fair to say that the majority of TDs in the Dáil, and in government, are homeowners, including Martin. Therefore is it surprising that remarks about rent prices were mentioned in such a way?

What if Martin had gone on the radio and said following a review, the government were going to look into setting up an “alternative system” to how we set house prices in the country. 

Of course, the government would look to protect homeowners, but they also wanted to make sure it would create a “stable environment” for the market.

All hell would break out. And that would just be from within his own party.

But such comments would never be uttered in such a relaxed manner? Why?

Because support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is strongest among homeowners. Such ill-thought-out remarks would never make it onto the airwaves. 

As much as government parties state they are there to govern all, where their support comes from is a factor that must be considered. That’s politics. It might not be right, but that’s politics. 

While it is only a snapshot in time, the results from a poll carried out last year by The Journal/Ireland Thinks ahead of the European Elections revealed just how much a person’s housing situation tells us about how they vote.

The poll showed that Fine Gael’s and Fianna Fáil’s popularity lies with homeowners. 

Of those that own their property outright, 28% supported Fine Gael, for instance, while those that have a mortgage, 16% support the party.

Of those living in council rented accomodation, just 6% supported Harris’ party, while only 17% of those living in private rented accommodation supported Fine Gael.

Of those living with their parents, 10% would vote Fine Gael. 

In terms of Fianna Fáil, 24% of those that own their own home would support the party, while 13% of mortgage-holders said they would vote for Micheál Martin’s party in the European elections. 

Of those that live in council rented housing, 0% said they would vote for Fianna Fáil. Of those living in private rented accommodation, 11% said they would vote for the party, while only 8% of those living at home with their parents said they would. 

Speaking to those within both parties, there is a definite acknowledgement of a broken rental and housing sector, overall. But there is also an acknowledgement that there is a balance they want to strike.

As one TD said, the government will talk about ensuring there is affordable housing, but they will never be heard saying they believe house prices should come down. 

Why? Because they know that those that vote for them don’t want government policy to start stripping away the value of their family home. We are also beginning to hear such language when it comes to rents, and how they should be “affordable”, not that they need to fall. 

This all raises the bigger question of why we view property as an investment and why the price tag on our family home we plan to live in for years really matters. 

In defending his position this week, Martin moved to reassure renters that the government will protect them, stating that it already has, with the increase of the rent tax credit to €1,000 in the last budget.

Most renters, who could be paying upward of €20k per year for a rental property, would view it as a drop in the ocean in terms of the average rent they pay out. 

The government’s new Cabinet housing subcommittee will meet for the first time on Monday where they’ll begin to have conversations about what the new “revised” Housing for All plan will be. 

Since 2016, when the RPZs came into effect, there was some comfort for renters in knowing that the rules set out that their rent can only rise by 2% every two years, although there have been countless reports to show that many (mostly new tenancies) have not adhered to the rules. 

Any new plan will likely have a big focus on first-time-buyers, in a bid to get people out of the box rooms of their family home or out of rented accommodation, and onto the property ladder. 

But if the new Housing for All 2.0 plan fails to provide reassurance to renters also about what they will be paying in 2026, you’ll be sure to know then that the two main players in government know which side of their bread is buttered.

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