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Multinationals have an outsized impact on Irish GDP. Alamy Stock Photo

How are we doing? Why the world’s most important economic statistic is almost useless in Ireland

Watch out if anyone tries to suggest GDP can tell you how well our economy is performing.

IRELAND’S ECONOMY CONTRACTED so far this year. Except it didn’t – it actually grew.

How can both of these things be true at once?

Thanks to a pesky little statistic referred to as ‘Gross Domestic Product’, better known by its abbreviated form, GDP.

Basically, GDP measures the value of all the goods and services produced by a country.
It’s essentially used as a shorthand for the size of the economy.

You’ve probably seen plenty of articles titled ‘economy grows by X over the last year’. These almost refer to how much GDP has increased.

Not only the media – more importantly, international bodies such as the United Nations, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund all tend to first look at GDP when considering how a country’s economy is doing.

Ireland’s GDP is down this year. It fell by 3.3% in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period in 2023.

So does this mean the Irish economy is weaker in 2024?

Well, no. The Irish economy is still one of the fastest-growing in Europe. It just isn’t being properly reflected in our GDP.

So let’s explain why GDP is such a tricky number for Ireland.

Why GDP doesn’t work for Ireland

In short – multinationals. Remember how we mentioned GDP measures all the stuff moving in and out of a country? That used to be a good measure of economic activity, when that consisted of the likes of making physical products and exporting them.

The problem nowadays is that multinational companies have extremely complicated corporate structures, which often involves them moving money from one country to another.

This money is then counted in a country’s GDP.

As previously explained, for a variety of reasons, Ireland is one of the most popular destinations in the world for corporate profit shifting.

Just one giant company shifting its profits here could have a similar impact on GDP as thousands of ‘normal’ businesses.

So because Ireland is a relatively small country, and there are lots of these big companies moving money here, it has a big impact on our GDP.

Normally, all the money being moved here inflates our GDP beyond what would be normal. That’s basically what happened a few years ago during Ireland’s ‘Leprechaun economics’ controversy.

Normal GDP growth for a country would probably be somewhere between 2% and 5% a year.

In 2015, Ireland recorded annual GDP growth of 26% – a figure which is basically unheard of, especially in a developed nation such as Ireland.

Since then, Ireland’s GDP often moves around fairly wildly depending on the activities of multinationals.

What we should use instead

It’s been pretty clear to experts in Ireland for a while that GDP isn’t a reliable measure of Ireland’s economy because of the scale of the impact of multinationals.

The Central Statistics Office has tried to produce numbers which discount the impact of this profit shifting by foreign companies, and instead look at how well the underlying economy is doing.

The key one here is called ‘Modified Domestic Demand’, which tries to exclude the effect of large multinational transactions which have basically nothing to do with Ireland’s real economy.

By this measure, the Irish economy is expected to expand by 2% in 2024, which would be considered a pretty decent year.

We can also look at things such as the country’s unemployment rate or average earnings.
These numbers also point to the economy doing well.

Irish average weekly earnings were rising by almost 6% year on year at last count, while the unemployment rate is hovering around 4%, a historically low figure.

Why Ireland’s GDP is still a problem

Even if every stats boffin in Ireland knows we should use different numbers for measuring our economy, GDP is still the international standard.

Even with our GDP falling recently, Ireland’s GDP per person is still one of the highest in the world, making it look like we’re easily in the top 10 of the world’s richest countries.
This makes Ireland appear to be much wealthier than it actually is.

This was explored a few years ago by former Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan, who tried to look at how closely the Irish economy corresponds to how well off the average person is.

By that metric, he found Ireland was somewhere near the middle of the pack in the EU, or around in the upper third.

Good, but not near what our GDP would imply.

This is a problem which is often compounded by statistics bodies and the media. International media still uses GDP for reporting on how Ireland’s economy is doing.
Even more problematically, it is still almost always the first statistic cited by respected international bodies such as the EU.

Domestic politicians have gotten better lately for recognising that high GDP growth doesn’t necessarily mean the economy is doing well, although the association has proven hard to shake in the minds of some.

Basically, if you take one thing from this article, take this.

The next time you see a headline ‘Ireland’s economy did X’ and the first thing mentioned is ‘GDP’ – an alarm bell should go off!

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    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Irish Names
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:02 PM

    First time I’ve seen it occupied in a while in fairness

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    Mute Little Diddy No
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    Apr 25th 2015, 9:25 AM

    I saw it – huge admiration to the pair for caring enough to do this…

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    Mute FlyB
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:02 PM

    Fair enough in my book. Well done to protesters. They’ve at the very least raised awareness about this. I for one didn’t know about the failure to compensate. Best of luck.

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    Mute Pedro deluvio
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:13 PM

    Me neither.

    They’ll never see the “united colours” of my money!

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    Mute Allister
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:01 PM

    What a dump of a store…. I’ve never seen a single thing in it I’d ever want to buy…

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    Mute Thomas Maher
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:06 PM

    Apart from one Garda who was on the scene the protest seemed to be a peaceful one..
    Are you suggesting the gardai would cause the protest not to be peaceful?

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    Mute Paul Roche
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:04 PM

    Occupy Wool Street?

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    Mute Top Cat
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:02 PM

    Jeez and Dunnes workers think their working conditions are bad.

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    Mute Kevin Higgins
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:05 PM

    So you want to live in Bangladesh?

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    Mute Top Cat
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:10 PM

    Chill Kevin, tragedies like this one are horrific and all I am saying is in comparative terms Dunnes workers have little to be complaining about.

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    Mute Diarmaid O'Fionnachta
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:14 PM

    Well if you compare it to footballers who have no need for qualifications and get to play football all day for 150k a week they do have something to complain about. What’s your point??

    Dunnes workers don’t have to work in mortal danger to earn the right to complain about their conditions

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    Mute Kevin Higgins
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:16 PM

    Comparitive to denis obrien they deserve a wage increase of 100000%

    60
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    Mute Top Cat
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:20 PM

    My point for the third time, when you hear of awful tragedies like this where thousands perish at work it puts things into perspective how good our working conditions are here.

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    Mute Kevin Higgins
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 8:08 PM

    My minimum wage flexi hour contract severely disagrees with you

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    Mute Mary Kavanagh
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    Apr 24th 2015, 1:33 AM

    Throw away the shovel, Top Cat. You’re on a loser on this one.

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    Mute Thomas Aquinas
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    Apr 24th 2015, 7:57 AM

    He is right though Said the unpopular opinion puffin

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    Mute Drew
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:20 PM

    In the first photo Benetton appears to be spelled Bennetton and in the third photo survivors is spelled Survivers… I’ll bet any takers not a single one of them can find Bangladesh on a map.

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    Mute Drew
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:26 PM

    In fact I’m slightly disappointed not to see an attempt to write Bangladesh… I’m sure that would have been good for a laugh.

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    Mute Niall
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:09 PM

    Have these people no jobs to go to, what about the inconvenience to shoppers, wasting police resources and so on and so forth.

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    Mute Andrew McQuillan
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:12 PM

    How about not being a heartless tool, and so on and so forth

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    Mute William Byrne
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:13 PM

    some waffle outta you kid !
    wipe the shiite off yer lip

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    Mute Niall
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:15 PM

    How about looking up sarcasm in a dictionary? In case you haven’t noticed these are the usual lines thrown out about water charge protesters.

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    Mute William Byrne
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:22 PM

    The only thing I noticed was the shiite on yer lip

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    Mute Niall
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:24 PM

    It could be worse it could be between my ears.

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    Mute William Byrne
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:29 PM

    sorry Niall – didnt get the sarcasm at all man -

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    Mute Mary Kavanagh
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    Apr 24th 2015, 1:34 AM

    Oh Niall! I hate to say this but…!

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    Mute neuromancer
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:16 PM

    Surprised protesters are allowed in the store.

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    Mute Glen
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:00 PM

    Down with that sort of thing.

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    Mute Sheila Hooks
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 7:24 PM

    Cianan his name is Gerry Lydon not Donal.

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    Mute Anca Condrache
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 8:39 PM

    The company’s failure to own up to the disaster and pay their contribution has nothing to do with store itself though! These protesters are jeopardising the employers and employees safety and privacy, by carelessly protesting in the middle of the store, and that is by no means peaceful. They are absolutely right to raise awareness but if they want effective results, why not contact the head office of the company itself? Why not go there and protest? What about the other stores around the country? This poorly organised protest is just an attention-seeking bid from individuals who are just protesting for the sake of it.

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    Mute Gerry Lydon
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 10:30 PM

    Hi guys. Gerry here. I helped organize and was involved with today’s protest. Just a few points : Neuromacer its easy to walk into a store that isn’t expecting. Drew go out and play with the traffic! Those talking about dunnes : Yes our lives are infinitely better but as we saw with some of the thongs they were fightong for, if employers get a taste for exploitation, in a globalized world we can feel the effect here as well as regard zero hours, union involvement etc. Anca I gonna presume your not the sort who ever actually does anything judging by the tone of your “whats the point of action comment”. While Id like to dismiss you as a waste of space, unfortunately your apathy and cynicism is quote common so to summarize getting publicity for a neglected cause is better than sitting round moaning. But as for the jeopatdizing safety and privacy, go back to sleep and stop throwing around terms! Ill see you in the morning glen. So finally nothing comes of nothing. If you care about something, put some effort in and get out there! The smallest acorns can become a big tree or at least a feature on a popular website! X.

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    Mute Ann Reddin
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    Apr 23rd 2015, 11:37 PM

    Good on ye Gerry, hope you managed to stop them making sales today.

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    Mute Mary Kavanagh
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    Apr 24th 2015, 1:37 AM

    Because it would have damn all impact . Go up to the head office here and say, please play nicely and pay the money you owe? We all know most big corporations have to be dragged kicking and screaming to do the right thing. These people have had two years to pay the money they pledged. Time for them to be shamed into stumping up.

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    Mute Jason O Shea
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    Apr 24th 2015, 4:16 AM

    Hi Gerry, I dont think the Dunnes strike had anything to do with underwear.

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    Mute john murphy
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    Apr 24th 2015, 1:22 PM

    A bottle of Lynx would get rid of them protestors! I’d say there’s an awful stink of piss in that shop at the moment.

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    Mute CitizenSmith©
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    Apr 24th 2015, 11:45 AM

    They do make some nice clothes though

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