THE CHIEF MEDICAL Officer cautioned the Minister for Health last week that there is still a risk of a further spike in the number of Covid-19 cases in Ireland.
In his letter to Stephen Donnelly on 26 May, Dr Tony Holohan wrote that modelling projections show that a risk remains of a further spike in case numbers and a corresponding increase in hospitalisations, depending on the transmissibility of the B117 variant.
Dr Holohan said that Ireland’s current position is positive, but that there are still several uncertainties and risks, including that case numbers and incidence rates remain relatively high and that a significant proportion of people will still be unvaccinated in June and July.
He also pointed to the transmissibility and impact of new variants being uncertain, particularly in relation to B.1.617.2, the variant first identified in India (now known as the Delta variant).
He advised that people who are not yet vaccinated should limit indoor interactions with other unvaccinated people and avoid crowded indoor environments.
“The epidemiological picture gives a broadly optimistic outlook in relation to the disease, but we remain vulnerable in the coming weeks as a large proportion of the population is not yet protected by vaccination,” Dr Holohan wrote.
“The cautious but progressive de-escalation of public health restrictions in recent months has not been associated with any significant increase in incidence of infection, with case counts remaining relatively stable at 400-500 per day, numbers in hospital and ICU declining slowly, and a significant decrease in mortality,” he said.
There is “early evidence of high levels of vaccine effectiveness in the prevention of symptomatic infection, and early evidence of a greater effectiveness in preventing severe disease and death”.
“The overall epidemiological position remains stable, and the recent relaxation of measures has not yet resulted in any noticeable increase in incidence of infection.”
As of 25 May, the 14-day incidence rate had dropped to 128 per 100,000, a slight decrease from 130 two weeks previously.
The chief medical officer set out details on outbreaks of the virus around the country between 16 and 22 May.
There were no new outbreaks reported in nursing homes, community hospitals, acute hospitals, or other healthcare settings such as mental health facilities.
Two oubreaks were found in Direct Provision centres, one in the Traveller community, and none in homeless facilities, addiction facilities, prisons or in the Roma community.
There were nine outbreaks in childcare facilities, 59 associated with school children, and three among third level students.
There were 36 outbreaks in workplace settings.
The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) gave advice to Cabinet last week on the next stage of easing Covid-19 restrictions, which ministers followed in the measures agreed upon and announced by the Taoiseach on Friday.
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