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AS MARION MCKEONE has outlined in her column, President Donald Trump seems to be most concerned at the moment with a gaudy 80th birthday celebration in parallel with the marking of the 250th birthday of the United States, the construction of monuments to his greatness in Washington, DC and permanently immunising himself and his family from future Internal Revenue Service audits.
Those of us whose analysis of this unlikely president has presumed that his self-interest would always trump – sorry! – everything else have clearly been misguided, at least in one sense. From that date in 2015 when he came down the escalator in Trump Tower to announce before a supposedly paid crowd of fans that he would pursue the Republican nomination for the highest office in the land, we believed that his self-interest was necessarily inseparable from his political self-interest.
Yet precious little of what he has said and done in recent months, will benefit either President Trump, whose approval rating is below 40% in the aggregated polling data, or GOP standard-bearers in the upcoming midterms. From the aforementioned excesses to indicating that he wasn’t worried by the financial predicament of the American people, which has been exacerbated by a foolhardy war on Iran, it has been a masterclass in political malpractice.
Accordingly, it can be cogently argued that he doesn’t really care what fate befalls his conservative colleagues. In turn, he apparently thinks that whoever controls the US Congress is pretty immaterial to how the final two years he has left in the White House go.
That said, with a single exception in an Iowa gubernatorial primary, his endorsement remains the equivalent of gold dust within the Republican Party. Its nominees beyond deep red territory, then, are in a difficult position. Their choices are 1) toe the MAGA line and alienate the vital cohort of independents or 2) carefully distinguish themselves from Trump and potentially alienate his legions of disciples, who could refuse to tick the box for apostates.
In this milieu, it is commonly expected that Democrats will take the US House of Representatives and may have a sizeable majority. The US Senate is a toss-up. An assessment of three of the hottest races for the upper chamber that just might tell the tale and prove pivotal in myriad ways follows.
In Maine, the liberal Republican Susan Collins, who has a mixed voting record when it comes to President Trump’s objectives, is seeking her sixth term. Her probable rival, Graham Platner, emerged from nowhere and excited thousands of progressive activists, who propelled him to a commanding lead in the primary. His chief foe, Maine Governor Janet Mills, consequently suspended her bid. Platner has garnered the backing of prominent figures like Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
To say that there is a “Platner problem” is an understatement, however. His working class, oyster farming persona is belied by his patrician upbringing. Platner’s passionate rhetoric with respect to women’s rights is belied by a litany of really vile, past social media posts about women and now by an account he kept, while married, on the Kik platform, which has quite a young audience, and related “sexting.” A subsequent, very odd, online response from his wife only fuelled the controversy.
Rumours abound that more salacious stuff will soon be revealed. On a trip to Capitol Hill last week, the reception from Senate Democrats was allegedly frosty. Some, in tepid fashion, merely reiterated their determination to defeat the incumbent when queried afterwards. It looks to be too late to replace him on the ballot. An internal survey released by his campaign shows him four percentage points ahead, but Senator Collins has been designated an endangered species previously and survived. Although he has withstood negative revelations to date, at the time of writing, Platner is definitely in trouble.
In Texas, James Talarico has been widely heralded as a rare Democrat with a genuine chance at winning a seat in the US Senate. And he does, especially since the Republicans opted for Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued state attorney general. Talarico often refers to his manifestly profound Christian faith in order to appeal to the centre.
The first attack ad emanating from forces loyal to Paxton demonstrates that it will still be a tough climb for Talarico. It uses old clips in which Talarico asserts that God is non-binary, that there are six genders, that he has struggled with his masculinity and whiteness and that he particularly loves trans-children.
The fact that a big swathe of Americans, plenty of whom would be much better served on the “bread and butter” issues impacting them on a daily basis by having Democrats in government, vote for conservative Republicans because of their stances on the “culture wars” baffles many on this side of the Atlantic. It is true nonetheless – and it is emphatically the case in the Lone Star State. Talarico has a job to do to convince floating voters in Texas, Latinos perhaps most importantly, that the ad doesn’t accurately reflect how he actually sees the world.
And a fascinating clash in the heavily agricultural state of Iowa will soon commence. Congresswoman Ashley Hinson will try to succeed retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst against the challenge of Democrat Josh Turek. Turek is a moderate who was elected and re-elected to the state legislature in a red district won by President Trump. Turek is an inspirational individual. Born with spina bifida, he is a wheelchair user, a former professional basketball star and a gold medal Paralympian.
If Turek were to manage an upset in fairly red Iowa, which is certainly not out of the question given the disappointment of many farmers in the Trump administration, it would provide Democrats a significant and surprising boost. Watch this one.
Of course, in light of how swiftly and dramatically developments continue to unfold during this unprecedented president’s second tenure, much can and will change prior to November. Regardless, Maine, Texas and Iowa will be key US Senate contests. In addition to evaluating the impact of any efforts Trump decides to make to assist his fellow Republicans, this space will visit other battlegrounds as the midterms approach.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.
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