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Analysis We had record low turnout in these elections - what does it mean?

Dr Adrian Kavanagh looks at the turnout trends in Ireland’s elections over the past few years.

AMIDST ALL THE drama of the election counts, one of the main trends to emerge that did not get the attention it warranted was the fact that these elections marked a record low in terms of voter turnout levels at local election contests.

The national turnout level for the County and City Council elections was 49.4% and this marked the first time in the history of the State that more than half of the registered voters failed to turn out to vote in a local election contest, although this admittedly marked only a marginal decline on the 50.2% turnout level for the 2019 elections (Figure 1).

Indeed, why should it matter? Ultimately, turnout levels say a lot about the strength of democracy in a state, and very low turnout levels can weaken the sense of legitimacy and representativeness that is invested in governments.

But turnout variations, if accompanying very low turnout levels, can result in biases in terms of representation and policy outcomes; if specific demographic, ethnic and class groups are less likely to turn out than others are, they will, in turn, be under-represented when it comes to the people who are elected to European, national and local governments and the decisions that are taken here. 

Screenshot 2024-06-14 at 07.48.08 Figure 1: Voter turnout levels at local election contests in the Republic of Ireland, 1945-2024

I have been interested in voter turnout since I commenced a PhD in Geography way back in 1999, in the wake of what was then a record low turnout at the local elections in 1999. What was striking about the 1999 election was not just the very low national turnout level, but the extent of the variations in turnout levels across the State.

Despite the very low national level, turnout rates in parts of rural Ireland (in particular, parts of Leitrim, Roscommon, Tipperary, West Cork, and Kerry) remained high – constituency level turnouts in some of these areas in the high seventies, with even higher levels observed at a more local level. These trends were replicated three years later, which saw a record low general election turnout level at the 2002 election. 

Screenshot 2024-06-14 at 07.56.22 Figure 2: A detailed geographical study of voter turnout levels in the Republic of Ireland at the 2002 General Election

For fun (this is what I do for fun), I analysed the turnout trends for that 2002 election in detail, working through all the registers used for that election, counting and analysing almost three million pieces of individual turnout data, with the help for a few months from two luckless Maynooth Geography student interns, Catríona Duffy and Cormac Walsh.

This turnout analysis found that the extent of rural-urban turnout variations was even starker when studied at a finer level of geographical detail (Figure 2). Despite the overall low turnout nationally, turnout levels in several rural areas were above the eighty per cent level, while very low turnout levels were recorded in the more urban parts of the state, with the turnout map effectively acting as an interesting means of indicating the extent of each city’s commuter belt at that point in time (including Derry City, as evident in the lower turnout in parts of the Inishowen peninsula).

The lowest turnouts were recorded in the more socially disadvantaged urban areas, with very low turnouts recorded in the 1999 and 2002 elections in North Clondalkin, Cherry Orchard and West Tallaght, for instance, but the lowest turnouts of all were to be observed in the inner city areas, and particularly the Dublin Inner City. 

Screenshot 2024-06-14 at 08.00.13 Figure 3: Factors that are associated with low voter turnout areas in political science and electoral geography research.

The low voter turnout areas in 2002 were associated with some, or most, of the factors that academics associate with low voter turnout, as illustrated above (Figure 3). The quality of the electoral register back then, as is very much the case today, was another factor. Further research by me, based on an electoral division-level comparison of the Valid Adult Population level (based on the 2002 Census) and the number of people on the register, found strong evidence of register inaccuracies (Figures 4a and 4b). 

Screenshot 2024-06-14 at 08.03.01 Figures 4a and 4b: Levels of electoral register in accuracy in the Republic of Ireland and the Dublin region at the 2002 General Election .

Screenshot 2024-06-14 at 08.03.41 Figures 4a and 4b: Levels of electoral register in accuracy in the Republic of Ireland and the Dublin region at the 2002 General Election.

However, this research found that register inaccuracies were not causing the geographical variations in turnout levels but dampening the extent of these. There were too many people on the electoral register in high turnout areas in rural Ireland (as well as the higher turnout areas in Dublin), suggesting that the “real” turnout levels in places like Leitrim and north-west Cork were even higher than the levels recorded for these. By contrast, there were too few people on the register in very low turnout areas in Dublin, such as the areas of new housing in Blanchardstown and South Lucan, but particularly the Dublin Inner City.

Turnout trends

So did turnout levels remain low for the following few decades? Well, no and yes. Turnout levels improved over the following decade and a half, but these increases were mainly focused on Dublin and the more urban areas. Even at this weekend’s low turnout contests, turnout levels in Dublin were over four percentage points higher than they were in the low turnout 1999 contest.

Turnout levels in working class parts of Dublin improved during the 2000s and 2010s, narrowing the class differential in turnout that characterised the low turnout in the 1999 and 2002 contests. Relatively high turnouts have been seen in places like Ballyfermot and North Clondalkin for certain, but not all, election contests, such as the 2014 Local Elections and the 2020 General Election, and these improved turnout levels in working class areas have helped to change the political landscape over this period.

Efforts made to clean up the electoral register ahead of the 2007 General Election did lead to a higher turnout level at that contest, while the concern over the low turnout levels in socially disadvantaged areas saw the introduction of voter education programmes in these areas by voluntary groups, such as the Vincentian Partnership for Justice. Increased levels of political mobilisation in these areas by Sinn Féin and other left-wing parties and candidates also helped to improve turnouts there. 

However, turnout levels in rural Ireland have fallen during the 2000s. In 1999 the constituency with the highest turnout level was Dromahaire (76.5%) and this was ten per cent higher than the highest constituency turnout recorded for the 2024 elections, the 66.5% turnout level for Manorhamilton. For local election contests, the drop in turnout levels may be potentially linked to the overall reduction in local representation levels in these areas, following the decision to abolish town councils and reduce councillor numbers in most County Councils ahead of the 2014 Local Elections.

Local election constituencies are now larger (in some cases confusing voters, who now wonder why they are being asked to vote for “candidates from the other side of the county”) and there has been a reduction in the number of candidates that voters personally know, as a result. There is also a sense in rural Ireland that politics is increasingly being dominated by Dublin and urban areas, far removed from the days of Albert Reynolds’ “Country and Western” government, when rural concerns were perceived to have been given greater emphasis. While register inaccuracies are no doubt playing a role here, there is also growing evidence of greater levels of rural disengagement from politics, as found in the PhD research done by William Durkan of the Department of Geography in UCC (and a recently elected councillor for the Clane electoral area).

How to improve turnout

What can be done? One obvious solution would be to work on improving the quality of the electoral register, but that is easier said than done. There is a job of work to be done with the administration of the register. Like a secret society, it can be hard to get onto the electoral register, but sometimes harder to get off it when you move house. The establishment of the Electoral Commission in January of last year may help in this regard, but it will take time and any appetite for a rigorous overhaul of the register ahead of the general election needs to be sated by concerns that such an overhaul is always likely to leave thousands of people without a vote on Election Day.

Efforts to iron out the level of register inaccuracies may need to be put on hold until after the general election to avoid accidentally deleting people from the register ahead of this, but these efforts need to be made. For the sake of democracy, we also should consider portraying politics and the work of politicians in a more positive light, instead of always fixating on the negative aspects. Claims that “politicians are all the same” and “politicians are lazy” need to be challenged (they’re not all the same and there are very few lazy politicians (otherwise they’d be voted out at the next election)), otherwise it will reduce motivation levels in terms of whether people decide to vote, or not, but also the willingness of people to put themselves forward as election candidates. 

The causes of low voter turnout are many and complex and solutions require big efforts to be made by different groups. The very low voter turnout levels of 1999 and 2002 were improved in the 2000s and 2010s, but this did not happen by accident and instead required a big effort on the part of electoral administrators, politicians and voluntary groups.

A similar, if not more intense, effort is required now to ensure we never again see a local election contest in which over half of the registered voters fail to vote. The question remains, however: is there enough motivation to address the issue of low voter turnout, or not?  The general sense of apathy over the weekend towards the growing problem of voter apathy leads me to suspect the latter, but I hope I will be proven wrong. 

Dr Adrian Kavanagh is a lecturer in the Maynooth University Department of Geography. His main research interests focus on the Geography of Elections, with particular reference to the Republic of Ireland. 

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    Mute Miley Byrne
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:07 AM

    Half the country wouldn’t care if Bugs Bunny was in charge as long as they are happy in their little bubble

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    Mute Brendan O'Brien
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:21 AM

    @Miley Byrne: In other words, you are bitterly disappointed at the showing of the far right.

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    Mute Jacintha Dumbrell
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:24 AM

    @Brendan O’Brien: They thought everyone who voted in the referendum was going to vote for racist candidates :)

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    Mute Emer Daly
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    Jun 14th 2024, 12:17 PM

    @Miley Byrne: exactly. Happiness is all that matters really isn’t it.

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    Mute Vinny Hughes
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:51 AM

    We are tired of promises and lots of promises and then all we get is the same.
    Wasting our money
    Paying no heed to us Irish
    Can’t buy a house
    Way too much taxes for nothing
    Your made feel like a criminal when you drive a car
    Shocking decisions around nama and selling land to multinationals to rent back to us.
    Etc etc

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    Mute Chutes
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    Jun 14th 2024, 11:45 AM

    @Vinny Hughes: Who don’t pay their share of taxes and have all the money you don’t? The rich! Until people force their politicians to tax the rich, the people will not be able to recover their money such that it can fund services.

    That’s it, simples!

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    Mute Emer Daly
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    Jun 14th 2024, 12:18 PM

    @Vinny Hughes: you’re right.

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    Mute james rowan
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:06 AM

    What it means is 50% dont give a ,,,,

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    Mute Thesaltyurchin
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:28 AM

    @james rowan: Hard to care when nothing is evident over 2 or 3 generations.

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    Mute Alan Smith
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    Jun 14th 2024, 10:07 AM

    We have low turnout due to people being exhausted by no change… empty promises & same issues different heads in government. Irish people can’t afford to live in Ireland again.

    If any politicians are reading this… nobody, especially the younger generation has a single ounch of faith in anything you say, so why would they vote?

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    Mute Numinous20111
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    Jun 14th 2024, 10:15 AM

    @Alan Smith: It has long been argued that political parties deliberately encourage voter disengagement and apathy. They rely on their core voters turning out, while reducing the risk of a groundswell of votes for a change in the status quo. One of the reasons politicians speak in circles is to burn out interest in politics & not just to avoid direct answers to questions put to them.

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    Mute Exhausted Jim
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:09 AM

    It means SF are clearly not as popular as they thought they were

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    Mute ecrowley ecrowley
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:14 AM

    @Exhausted Jim: It also means the far right are not as popular as the comments section here would lead you to believe.

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    Mute Exhausted Jim
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:18 AM

    @ecrowley ecrowley: who is the far right?

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    Mute Exhausted Jim
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:22 AM

    @ecrowley ecrowley: the comments section and reality are 2 very different planets

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    Mute Brendan O'Brien
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:22 AM
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    Mute Exhausted Jim
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:24 AM

    @Brendan O’Brien: looks like they are only getting off the ground, onwards and upwards from now on

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    Mute ecrowley ecrowley
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:28 AM

    @Exhausted Jim: There is no onwards and upwards for the far right. I am not a fan of FFG in the slightest but if they can get a sensible handle on immigration, which seems to be a priority, the one-issue far right will vanish politically almost overnight. While it’s such a hot topic now, this was their chance to make an impact. They didn’t.

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    Mute Brendan O'Brien
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:30 AM

    @Exhausted Jim: You want fear, bigotry and hatred to move ‘onwards and upwards’? There’s no accounting for taste, but what’s wrong with love and peace?

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    Mute Exhausted Jim
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:30 AM

    @ecrowley ecrowley: on the rise all over Europe, it’s inevitable that Ireland will follow the trend

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    Mute Exhausted Jim
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:33 AM

    @Brendan O’Brien: I want tough border controls because I don’t believe people from the middle East and Africa bring any of that so called love and peace to a western civilised democracy like Ireland

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    Mute Thesaltyurchin
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:34 AM

    @Brendan O’Brien: Wonder how many non Irish were elected?

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    Mute ecrowley ecrowley
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:35 AM

    @Exhausted Jim: Right leaning independents have done well, and will continue to do so, it’s good that there are sensible candidates of that persuasion. While these options exist, far right candidates will never garner enough support to have any substantive say in things.

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    Mute ecrowley ecrowley
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:37 AM

    @Thesaltyurchin: More than the far right got, probably.

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    Mute Brendan O'Brien
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:41 AM

    @Exhausted Jim: There’s the bigotry, as well as an exaggerated sense of ‘them and us’.

    There are many millions of migrants and displaced people in the world, the vast majority of whom just want to lead productive and fulfilling lives and care for their families. Just like the vast majority of non-migrants.

    It was always this way, and it probably always will be.

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    Mute Nick Vasilakis
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:57 AM

    @Brendan O’Brien: It’s gone out of fashion, Brendan, along with debate. Hatred, jeering and shouting have replaced it.

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    Mute David O Brien
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    Jun 14th 2024, 10:05 AM

    @Exhausted Jim: the people in the corner

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    Mute James Moylan
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    Jun 14th 2024, 10:11 AM

    @ecrowley ecrowley: early days yet, I’m sure that the right wing in most European countries were frowned upon until the their countries were taken over by the 3rd world

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    Mute Colette Byrne
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    Jun 14th 2024, 10:23 AM

    @Exhausted Jim: it means they didn’t buy celebrities to boost their ratings.

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    Mute Colette Byrne
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    Jun 14th 2024, 10:28 AM

    @Exhausted Jim: No it’s not inevitable, same as neutrality.
    We are one of the few countries to choose peace over war.
    Humans have the power to change their minds and change the world. As this election and recent referendums proved.

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    Mute John D Doe
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    Jun 14th 2024, 12:58 PM

    SF are for laughing at

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    Mute hans vos
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    Jun 14th 2024, 7:21 PM

    @Exhausted Jim: But still they won and FF/FG lost so they are even less popular.

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    Mute Larry Roe
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:17 AM

    Should be a legal requirement to vote

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    Mute Exhausted Jim
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:19 AM

    @Larry Roe: and a basic human right not too

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    Mute Chutes
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    Jun 14th 2024, 12:34 PM

    @Larry Roe: Living in a society comes not just with the rights we claim but with the responsibilities we have, voting is one of those responsibilities. It is not unreasonable to insist on voting.

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    Mute Thesaltyurchin
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:32 AM

    Great article, we need more of this, people who enjoy sifting through the details, not trying to put forward an agenda, just high quality information. Thank Adrian!

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    Mute 5aeex4zc
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:52 AM

    Probably need to run more jockeys,dancers,gaa presidents,radio presenters,boxers etc ;do we really need celebrity’s who know nothing about politics representing us in Europe we should have learned something from Dustin in the Eurovision song contest

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    Mute Furious George - The Wasp
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    Jun 14th 2024, 10:33 AM

    @5aeex4zc: if dustin was going for election , I would have voted for him

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    Mute Tom Newell
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    Jun 14th 2024, 11:24 AM

    People just don’t care is the main crux of it. Anyone who suffered after the crash when real change was needed just saw the usual parish pump politics and im alright jack disease kick in when FF got back into government instead of finishing jail terms for their part in the crash. Plus look at the 3 main areas this country is sinking fast in housing, healtha and a decent public transport service…..all massively invested in with billions and all stacked with cronyism, back scratching and friends of friends running each and all a complete disaster in one shape or another. Even the shinners couldnt promise to clean these areas up, and then the complete immigration/legal human trafficking situation we currently have where literally money is being made between developers and their mates in politics using these poor folk like cattle for fat contracts, and again people know none of the big parties wanna touch that cos too many well connected fingers in the pie and snouts in the trough

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    Mute Keth Tgi
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    Jun 14th 2024, 9:24 AM

    It’s a good job I have a few other newspaper apps on my phone. The amount of reports on the journal lately has been akin to impoverishment.

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    Mute Longlin
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    Jun 14th 2024, 10:59 AM

    I had a 33% turnout for myself in this election. I transferred my vote from my previous house in the same local authority area but still got a voting card to the old one. I’d be fairly certain I’ve got one in Dublin too as there was no way to flag that I was moving to a new area when I registered. There must be countless others as flagged in the article. It would be more work for council staff but we probably need to refresh the register every year like they do in some other countries to avoid inaccuracies like this.

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    Mute Donna Fallon
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    Jun 14th 2024, 4:05 PM

    @Longlin: exactly the same experience here- registered in 3 different Dublin constituencies despite doing my best to rectify the issue. What an absolute farce. Raised it with Shane Ross when he was in Cabinet and he actually just laughed in my face.

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    Mute Chutes
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    Jun 14th 2024, 10:48 AM

    Hard to care about the kinds of governors who refuse decade after decade to just serve your interests, actually improve your life. For the 30% (guess) who’s interests are actually served it’s a great little country as they like to say, jetting off on their far flung hols. The self centred will fk us all happily!

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    Mute Chutes
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    Jun 14th 2024, 10:50 AM

    Excellent article!! More of this from the Journal please! I see more awards in your collective future!

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    Mute Paddy C
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    Jun 14th 2024, 11:54 AM

    People are so fed up with what’s in power and opposition they’re literally sick to the teeth of them and have 0 interest. Not hard to see why when cost of living is rising continually and even to have a roof over you’re head and keep it has become a miracle in itself. Such a mess has been made that regardless of who gets in it’ll take years to fix because those who made it only worry about themselves and are never held to account for they’re decisions or lack of.

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    Mute Mick Hanna
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    Jun 14th 2024, 3:25 PM

    Apathy…Plain and Simple. I personally have had it…My Vote Doesn’t help me in the slightest. Look at what we are doing to ourselves… Nothing done for the Greater Good….it’s just Tax, Tax and more Tax. Even more off putting is those TDs who back RTE despite how loose they are with the Public’s Money. SHAME ON THEM ALL.!!!

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    Mute William Kelly
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    Jun 14th 2024, 6:11 PM

    It means that a huge potential voter group are disenchanted with our political leadership, of all shades, & may well be crouching in the long grass to administer p45′s to those who created the homes crisis,the health service debacle, and the loss of educated youth, skilled gen Z, not to overlook our worried seniors left without dupports.

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    Mute Charlie Arum
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    Jun 14th 2024, 11:56 AM

    Yawn!? *$¥§¶¶¿}!!

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    Mute Garreth Byrne
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    Jun 14th 2024, 3:18 PM

    Analise the analysts, then paralise the boring analysis.

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    Mute Paddy C
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    Jul 1st 2024, 9:01 AM

    It certainly means the young generation have lost all hope in the soundbites from those wasters in the dail. With successfully increasing the housing crisis year in year out very hard not to see why they’d bother with lie after lie from that shower. Huge numbers heading abroad for a future but I suppose they don’t matter only what’s entering the country does now.

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