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Count staff member Cian O'Connor (left), from Douglas Co Cork, wearing a different novelty T-shirt for each day during vote counting in Ireland's European elections at the Cork count centre. Alamy Stock Photo

Opinion Right-wing politicians will see that slating the system is easier than working within it

Larry Donnelly looks at the busy week in political life and shares his key takeaways.

FIRST, WHITHER SINN FÉIN, is the question being posed by political observers across this island and beyond. Friday, 7 June, was a bad day for the party, whose backing had soared to 36% in 2022, yet whose standard bearers in the European and local elections received approximately 12%.

Unusually, stories abound of widespread internal discontent, with activists and losing candidates openly interrogating strategy and even the position of Mary Lou McDonald.

There is no doubt that Sinn Féin has tumbled steadily in the opinion surveys since the razor sharp focus of the media and the citizenry on housing shifted markedly to immigration in the wake of the arrival of 100,000+ Ukrainians and a sizeable swathe of international protection seekers. Then, concerns were heightened following the Dublin riots last November.

The influence of the right

There is no doubt that McDonald and Co have been squeezed from the right – anti-immigration elements of its working class base abandoned it – and the left – young people, especially, who gravitated to Sinn Féin primarily because of the housing crisis and the persuasive advocacy of Eoin Ó Broin, are dismayed at what they perceive as a disavowal of liberal values.

As they “reflect and rebuild” in Ó Broin’s words, it seems to me that any move for personnel change is improbable and would be misguided. In terms of policy and messaging, there does not appear to be a clearly identifiable, obviously advantageous plan of action; “damned if they do, damned if they don’t” springs to mind. Greater clarity of intent – regardless of which direction they go in on immigration or on any other topic in the aftermath of a campaign during which prominent Sinn Féin representatives were not always on the same page – is advisable.

They should stay mindful in these necessary deliberations of one truth above all that this outcome has confirmed: Ireland’s electorate is extremely volatile. Their party’s contrasting fortunes in 2019, 2020 and today demonstrate it. And it would be unwise to extrapolate excessively from this second order contest, given that exit polling conducted by Kevin Cunningham of TU Dublin indicates that 43% opted for a local election hopeful in a party different to their preferred general election party.

Second, did the far right really rise? Astute commenters had speculated that aspirants who took the government to task for its support for accepting newcomers, recent failed constitutional referendums, hate speech legislation and social progressivism more broadly would win numerous seats on county and city councils and possibly procure a spot or two in the European Parliament.

Prior to assessing their performance, language is important here. The “far right” moniker is utilised with often reckless abandon. For instance, it is erroneous to affix the label, as many on the left are prone to do, to the Independent Ireland grouping, which is not anti-immigrant, though it is critical of the government on immigration, or to Aontú, simply on the basis that Peadar Tóibín’s fledgling entity is against abortion.

The meaning of far right

Let’s consider the fortunes of those who can legitimately be described as far right. They did not make the breakthrough in the locals that some forecast. Only a handful ultimately prevailed. It will be interesting to monitor how efficacious they will be on behalf of those who put their trust in them now that they are actually in the arena. As Malachy Steenson, Gavin Pepper and their fellow travellers will soon discover if they don’t know it already, it’s a lot easier to throw stones from the sidelines than to operate within the system.

At European level, they may have been spread among an array of agitators, yet many did give their first, or a high, preference to the far right. The tens of thousands of votes garnered by Derek Blighe in the South constituency are equally noteworthy, surprising and alarming.

In an overarching sense, there was not an uprising, but there was not a repudiation. Watch that space. The Irish far right’s future viability will depend to a large extent on whether its disparate figures can form a cohesive movement and rally around a capable leader.

PR-STV

Third, and I recognise that this will invoke the ire of traditionalists, the counting takes too long. While the entire process was alien to me as I carefully looked on at my first general election here in 2002, I have come to love the drama and intrigue of a count as much as any seasoned Irish political anorak. I enjoy them and the concomitant conjecture as to where transfers will go immensely. And I wholeheartedly endorse the superiority of the PRSTV method to the “first past the post” system in the United States and the United Kingdom for a host of reasons.

On this occasion, however, it was ridiculous. Having to wait nearly a week for a result in 2024 is bizarre and punishingly cruel to the candidates and their loved ones. As political scientists have asserted, it may prove detrimental to the new members of the European Parliament. They were lingering in Castlebar, Cork and Dublin. Their continental colleagues were acquainting themselves with their novel roles and surrounds.

Several ideas to expedite things have been mooted on Twitter/X. His Election Excellency, Gavan Reilly of Virgin Media, proposes an elegant solution. “1) Paper voting. 2) Human sorting. 3) Machine counting, like a bank teller machine. Doesn’t remove the human oversight, still allows for manual backup in the event of mistrust, but allows quicker totting up of huge stacks of paper.” The Electoral Commission should examine its feasibility.

Election

Fourth, there is the matter of the date for a general election. The dominant view currently is that the Taoiseach would be foolish not to go to the nation in October or November. The thinking is that Sinn Féin is on the ropes, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are doing pretty well and canvassing in early 2025 when the nights are short, people are broke and the weather is miserable would be nightmarish.

Their arguments are difficult to assail. That said, Simon Harris – who, in my estimation, has bolstered Fine Gael and, accordingly, the government since assuming office – is adamant that he will go the distance. Rumours that by-elections necessitated by the moves of sitting TDs to Europe will be held in September suggest that he is not bluffing.

To this, I might add the point, albeit anecdotal, that everywhere I look, new housing of all types is being built. Friends say the same about their areas. This remains the top issue and one Sinn Féin et al will be endeavouring to restore the focus on. The more individuals, couples and families who get the keys to a home before an election is called, the less impactful the attacks on the government’s track record on housing.

I’ve believed for months that the general election will be in late February or early March of 2025. And I’m still not fully convinced by the admittedly compelling rationale articulated by the vast majority of pundits to the contrary. Either way, fascinating times lie ahead.

Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.

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35 Comments
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    Mute Johnny King
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    Jun 15th 2024, 8:07 PM

    Replace right wing with left wing and the headline sentence is exactly the same

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    Mute P. J.
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    Jun 15th 2024, 8:16 PM

    @Johnny King:
    Agreed.
    Extremists, on either side, are not big into building consensus.

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    Mute Thesaltyurchin
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    Jun 16th 2024, 12:13 PM

    @Johnny King: until these terms stop making money for the media we will continue to hear about it.

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    Mute Irish Axe
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    Jun 15th 2024, 8:54 PM

    There is no far right in Ireland. Just people with common sense. The brutal truth is those who disagree are part of the establishment!

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    Mute ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere
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    Jun 15th 2024, 8:59 PM

    @Irish Axe: Oh, there are far right here alright.

    They burn down hotels and hostels.

    And attack those they chose to dislike.

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    Mute Numinous20111
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    Jun 15th 2024, 9:10 PM

    @Irish Axe: Yup, typically transparent attempt to convert various lawlessness and extreme anti-social behaviour into ‘common sense’. At least you didn’t fall back on ‘patriotism’.

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    Mute Ian
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    Jun 15th 2024, 11:42 PM

    @Irish Axe: Wrong. Dumb fks without a decent bone in their body.

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    Mute 9QRixo8H
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    Jun 15th 2024, 11:51 PM

    @Irish Axe: #0.9%

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    Mute 9QRixo8H
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    Jun 15th 2024, 11:52 PM

    @Irish Axe: you’re right as the far-right only got less than 1% of support. Common sense voted 52% for FFG so eat that!!!!!

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    Mute Thomas Sheridan
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    Jun 16th 2024, 12:49 AM

    @9QRixo8H: It’s so p@ťhetically funny seeing the usual sč̣obie brigade constantly harping on about the far right bogeymen, when in reality they refer to ordinary people that don’t want our country further destroyed by foreigners.

    It’s a psychotic condition, often associated with taking hallucinogenic drugs, and is especially prevalent amongst a number of cohorts.

    These include existing illegal immigrants, people working in the NGO illegal immigration industry as well as our own lifelong dole merchants who believe that there is a limitless amount of money and homes for a limitless stream of illegal immigrants.

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    Mute Nick Vasilakis
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    Jun 16th 2024, 10:29 AM

    @Thomas Sheridan: I think you hit nearly every dog-whistle point. Well done!

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    Mute Gary Kearney
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    Jun 25th 2024, 11:16 AM

    @Irish Axe: There is a right wing, they believe everything on social media and all sorts of weird and wonderful story’s.
    A lot of it is completely off the wall.
    One great lie that did the rounds was bus loads of immigrant’s been bused around to vote as instructed. Depending on where you are , it was the greens, FF, FG, SF and even a few independents were accused of it. Off the wall stuff!
    If you read their literature , they are far right and bigotry and discrimination are not common sense.

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    Mute ecrowley ecrowley
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    Jun 15th 2024, 8:23 PM

    The problem is they moved the centre. Nothing wrong with being right wing in the traditional sense. It’s good for those of that persuasion to have suitable candidates. Because the main parties made a bollix of immigration policies, it opened the door for far right cabbages to make themselves known. The far right will simply drop off if we get immigration fixed, a big ask, admittedly. I don’t think expecting sensible border controls to be a right wing thing anyway. All parties should be in favour of that.

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    Mute ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere
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    Jun 15th 2024, 8:58 PM

    @ecrowley ecrowley: No, they didn’t move to the center.

    (Economic) Right wing parties want open borders.
    That gives employers a greater pool of people seeking employment, keeping wages lower than they would otherwise be.
    That gives businesses larger markets for their goods and services, increasing profits.
    That creates more demand for housing, benefiting landlords, developers, banks, estate and rental agents, solicitors…

    It is harmful to people already here.

    But we don’t count.

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    Mute James Reardon
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    Jun 15th 2024, 8:27 PM

    Had to stop reading such a pompous, cracked, old age mouth scutterer rambling. There’s alot wrong that’s gone on/is happening in the workings of this country, and no matter how you paint it, reality is sf/sd’s are up in councils seats while ffgrns are down over 100 between them. This will continue going into a general election with right sided parties (mainly independent Ireland) gaining ground slowly also.

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    Mute Brendan O'Brien
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    Jun 15th 2024, 8:39 PM

    @James Reardon: The government parties are down 67 between them. I think you’ll find that that isn’t ‘over 100′.

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    Mute James Reardon
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    Jun 15th 2024, 9:17 PM

    @Brendan O’Brien: oh well, still down a nice chunk. Good to see one of the journal comment dwellers on standby for correction. *thumbs up

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    Mute Kieran Menon
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    Jun 15th 2024, 9:58 PM

    Seems anything right-leaning is “far right” for this current Government that does literally everything against its own system.

    Hypocritical click bait article.

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    Mute 9QRixo8H
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    Jun 16th 2024, 12:02 AM

    Nope, our right-leaning govt have 52% of support, but your far-right has zero percent of support!!! And we will go more rightwing in bringing in more landlordism and vulture funds because that is what is needed and you far right don’t understand this

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    Mute Kieran Menon
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    Jun 16th 2024, 12:31 AM

    @9QRixo8H: “You you you”, don’t ever recall posting my political stance. Do you make it a habit projecting yourself onto others, putting words into peoples’ mouths? Sound like a clown doing that.

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    Mute YKwkSIqW
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    Jun 16th 2024, 6:46 AM

    @Kieran Menon: Peadar constantly sounds like a clown, I wouldn’t place any stock the ramblings of such a cr3tin.

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    Mute William Tallon
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    Jun 15th 2024, 9:50 PM

    Left wing? Right wing? No difference, really. Both are ultimately equally illiberal and authoritarian in their outlook. Each knows what’s good for you because you don’t, and they believe society needs to be strictly managed in accordance with their narrow vision, and if you don’t get with their program, you will be disciplined. You may even need to be re-educated! Strangely and somewhat slyly, they never tell you all this before they get into power, though. The older I get, the more cynical I become…

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    Mute Eric Gaffney
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    Jun 15th 2024, 8:59 PM

    Activist journalism. The heads on those
    “journalists”. All nerdy nutjobs.

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    Mute 9QRixo8H
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    Jun 16th 2024, 12:05 AM

    He’s going mad that his parties go 0.9%!!!!!! His twitter is FULL of extreme-right reposts but sure he’s not far right he’s normal would never support a holocaust or racial segregation, right? RIGHT?

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    Mute Donna Fallon
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    Jun 16th 2024, 1:16 AM

    So F ing sick of this ‘far right’ rhetoric. Most of my families’ husbands and wives are from outside of Ireland… guess what though?? They came here with a legal Visa. This current Government and their Civil Servants couldn’t appoint one person who could even organise a school register legitimately let alone the electoral register. I for one am done.

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    Mute Gerald Kelleher
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    Jun 15th 2024, 8:55 PM

    One of the commenters in another article was throwing around the term insanity when it is pointed out that the taxpayers are funding the modelling community to say the planet is burning up, boiling, and things like that. This three-ring circus of academics, politicians, and the electorate is a remarkable spectacle as an exercise in dysfunctional social engineering.

    The trap is to believe in left and right politics when the dynamics are academic politics operating through a social-political conduit, and reactions to this are seen as right politics. Journalists like the idea of left/right politics, but it is a distraction from people who like to be fair rather than ideologues.

    Look at how academia works and how nature is incidental.

    https://youtu.be/WsMUrW1PbxQ?si=pingBM6HMV2KmBV3

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    Mute Brian D'Arcy
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    Jun 15th 2024, 8:54 PM

    Restricting female bodily aurltonomy is not far right, who celebrated the success of Franco against the democratically elected government of Spain, the Vatican and the Catholic Church in Ireland, seems that the Irish never knew that who led them were far right for many years.

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    Mute John D Doe
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    Jun 16th 2024, 5:19 AM

    Thoroughly enjoying the demise of SF

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    Mute ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere
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    Jun 16th 2024, 5:49 AM

    @John D Doe: The party that increased its representation at both local and EU level?

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    Mute Antony Stack
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    Jun 16th 2024, 8:35 PM

    Burning down abandoned hotels is nothing compared to what SF were doing during their ‘Long War’ .
    There are five councillors elected who are critical of immigration. That is five out of one thousand.
    And the thing is they are right, we have not enforced our own laws on immigration.
    Far right (and Far left) means concentration camps – think Hitler, Stalin & Co.
    Anyone throwing that terminology around in this country should be locked up – just so they know what they are saying.

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    Mute Thesaltyurchin
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    Jun 16th 2024, 12:15 PM

    $tup!d is the new clever and if you disagree your $tup!d

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