Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
WHEN THE COUNTING is done, the winners stand out. They are instantly recognisable.
You see it in the spring in their step. Hear it in the laughter of happiness and success.
I was at the Belfast count centre on Saturday; there to be interviewed by Annita McVeigh across a few hours of coverage on the BBC News Channel.
For others, these days can be wake-like. The SDLP, in particular, has a lot to think about after this election and a set of results in which its Stormont numbers fell to eight.
The Ulster Unionists dropped to nine.
The count
As the results emerged, the big winners were Sinn Féin and Alliance.
Sinn Féin with more votes and more seats than the DUP and with the numbers to be First Minister. What has been properly described as a seismic moment.
Alliance more than doubled its Stormont representation. More evidence of a growing and more significant third pillar within our politics.
It means the story of here can no longer be told in the narrow frame of ‘two tribes’. It is being stretched out across a wider canvas.
The political ground is shifting.
But will a fully-functioning Stormont now be restored?
Not until the DUP has answers on the post-Brexit Irish Sea Border – and on what will be done to address its concerns.
Those are not just about the new trading arrangements between GB and here, but about the status of Northern Ireland within the Union.
On Friday, party MP Sammy Wilson said the Assembly cannot function if the “poison of the protocol” is still there.
How long will it take to answer those questions?
How long is a piece of string?
How long will Stormont have to wait when there is no time for waiting?
People are struggling in a cost-of-living crisis and with pressures in the Health Service that need urgent attention.
Former NI Secretary of State Julian Smith, the co-architect with Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney of the January 2020 agreement that put Stormont back in place after a three-year absence, hopes the current protocol negotiations can be accelerated “to deliver a rapid political solution”.
He was writing in the Financial Times: “But beyond the problems with the protocol, there are few other excuses for politicians in Northern Ireland to delay forming an executive – Nationalists taking the First Minister slot is definitely not one of them,” he wrote.
The results
In a new executive, Sinn Féin’s leader in the north Michelle O’Neill will be First Minister.
This is the big story from the election, the “big idea” that energised and motivated people on the doorsteps.
Sinn Féin emerged from this election with 250,388 votes and 27 seats. The DUP had 184,002 votes and 25 seats.
DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson had predicted that in such circumstances Sinn Féin’s call for a date for a border poll would get louder.
It was a last roll of the dice, trying to get the unionist vote both focused and out.
After a period of internal turmoil, his party had a better vote and seat tally than predicted, but not good enough to match the Sinn Féin surge.
In its build-up, this was a quieter version of the 2017 election, remembered for Arlene Foster’s rejection of an Irish Language Act and her description of Sinn Féin as a crocodile – that if you feed it, it will keep coming back for more.
In 2017, the DUP was still largest party, but by just one seat and a little over 1000 votes.
This time, Sinn Féin took that possibility of being First Minister to the doorsteps, the ‘big idea’, that to quote one source had eyes lighting up.
They won by more than 66,000 votes. The polls that suggested they would be the largest party were right.
A border poll?
In the office that leads the Stormont Executive, First Minister and deputy First Minister have equal powers, but in this place titles matter. First Minister has a better ring to it.
Does it mean that a border poll is closer?
This is a decision for the UK Government. Julian Smith reckons the chances of Boris Johnson acceding to one are next to nil.
Boris Johnson won’t be there forever.
What will get louder will be the demands for planning and preparations to begin. The work on what any ‘New Ireland’ might look like and the conversations and research that will shape it.
Neither Orange nor Green can win such a poll. That’s the significance and the influence of that third pillar within our politics, and its thinking if/when such a poll occurs.
Alliance won 17 seats in the new Assembly, including one in North Antrim – the constituency long identified with the Paisley name.
Here Jim Allister of the TUV retained his seat, and although his party’s vote significantly increased across the frame, it could not add to its one seat at Stormont.
A few days ago, I wrote here that there was nothing dull about this election.
Look at the headlines telling a story of change.
Five years on from 2017, the quieter crocodile had a bigger bite.
It came back for more.
Brian Rowan is a journalist and author. He is a former BBC correspondent in Belfast. Brian is the author of several books on Northern Ireland’s peace process. His new book, “Political Purgatory – The Battle to Save Stormont and the Play for a New Ireland” is out now at Merrion Press.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
Hopefully were at the start of the road to reconciliation, equality, peace and a united ireland
@Mel Finn: we’ll hold our breath.
Not sure how its a political shift to sinn fein, more a defragmentation of unionist politics. Sinn Fein didn’t win any more sears did they? and they still need to work with the DUP, although the DUP wont like playing second fiddle to Sinn Fein i doubt stormont will have an assembly and another election will be called which could gey messy for both because if they both appear to be inhibiting the formation of the assemble, the Alliance party will be waiting to pick up the pieces
@Garreth mc mahon: where are you getting the false perception that SF are blocking the formation of an assembly???
@M Bowe: read it again, I never said Sinn Fein, I blamed the DUP on potential failure
@Garreth mc mahon:
It will be The DUP and The TUV and for obvious reasons certainly not SF who will block the formation of The NI Assembly.
@M Bowe: typical shinner.
@Garreth mc mahon: “ although the DUP won’t like playing second fiddle to Sinn Fein I doubt Stormont will have an assembly and another election will be called which could get messy for BOTH if THEY BOTH appear to be inhibiting the formation of the assembly”.
On re reading the above which is a direct quote you are implying BOTH are at fault on this issue.
@Dave Connolly: if being a typical shinner is the ability to read and comprehend what is written, then THANK YOU.
@Garreth mc mahon: I have read it and you referred to both
@Garreth mc mahon: you can’t agree that SF ran a good campaign and for the first time have gained First Minister…. but try to muddy thereafter by implying SF are blocking the assembly, when the dogs in the street know that’s the DUPs position…. ? Division politics is alive and well in your bloodstream Garreth.
@Patricia O’Brien: they haven’t gained first minister .. yet.
@Garreth mc mahon: I concur. SF had 28 and 29 seats before and managed 27 in the last two elections. A 0.9% growth is not exactly earth shattering and still behind the combined UUP and DUP vote and even if combined with SDLP votes it is still 20,000 votes less than the unionists. The growth of the Alliance party holds more hope for a better future to Northern Ireland politics over the divisive pro and anti Union politics.
@Patricia O’Brien: I have noticed recently that the anti SF brigade have switched to subliminal “ they as bad as each other” mantra. So when unionism refuses to accept SF electoral democratic mandate they attempt to link SF to that in democratic behaviour. That suits their narrative in refusing to engage with SF across this island.
@Niall Ó Cofaigh: yes. And the article should discriminate between the two successes. One is based on nationalist populist politics the other isn’t. Where the former leads we already know, where the other does we don’t know yet. For me, the shift towards the alliance represents a genuine shift. The rest is just more of the same, polarising opinion, exploiting past their sell by date narratives.
@alan: Sinn Fein has signed up to the GFA, which was endorsed by an overwhelming majority on this island. They clearly stated their aims and ambitions for reunification by purely democratic means. How is this legitimate and widely held outlook on this island either extreme or polarising???
Leo and Micheàl will be very nervous now :)
@Patricia O’Brien: Sinn Fein have only the same No of seats they did not improve their Numbers
@Patricia O’Brien: why? The party that actually made the gains from the Unionist and SDLP losses were the alliance party….not SF!
@Joe_X: lol….
@Sheila McNulty: SF are first minister… for the first time in history… but thats not a big deal to u… keep the ole blinkers on there, u won’t see SF coming up on the rails …
@Joe_X: Very true, this is more a weakening of the DUP than anything else. That it’s gone from DUP to alliance seems more like a shift away.from the extremes and divisiveness and towards unity which really is more important than unification, it must come first for unification to work.
@Sheila McNulty: surly you will agree that now S.F. are the largest political party in the six counties. You may possibly remember a time when FFG/ successive British governments stated if Sinn Fein entered the Democratic route they would be welcomed into the ( Fold). Well the electorate have spoken, but is it now the FFG / Unionist or British governments version of Democracy that counts. Bit contradictory don’t you think.
@Patricia O’Brien: I hope Leo and Micheàl are at a point of copping themselves on and looking to the bigger picture. Both of them can and should have a role in the future of the island and I hope they realise that. The strategy of othering SF into oblivion has clearly failed and they should probably readjust rather than sink with that ship.
SF have now got what they set out to achieve. Now the executive needs to attend to the needs of the people of NI. Hopefully, that will happen after some tinkering with the protocol.
There remains a “Unionist” majority in these results so a border poll is not an immediate concern. For those in favour of a United Ireland a lot of hard work is needed to eventually convince a majority in NI of its merits.
@camio55: SF have NOT called for a border poll, they have called for the debates/ conversation about what such a poll will contain. What all the people of this island would like a reunified country to achieve for them. FFG and unionism cannot block those conversations at government level any longer.
@M Bowe: The first step in the process of moving forward on a United Ireland is to respect the terms of the GFA. That explicitly states that majority in NI must be in favour. To achieve this a lot of work needs to be put into persuading “Unionists” and others of its merits. It is not a foregone conclusion that this will just happen, it requires thoughtful consideration of all issues both political and economic. The people of the South then need to vote on the matter taking into account the full ramifications of a unified country(again both economic and poliical factors need to be assessed).
@M Bowe: It would probably require a referendum down here, and quiet frankly, while it is a nice notion to have a United Ireland, when people down here look at the finances of it, I could not see it passing.
I don’t know if NI needs some kind of Referendum or not, but if they do need to vote on it, once they look at what they have on this side of the border, and compare it to UK finance wise, it might paint a different picture.
At the end of the day, it will be like all things, economically and financially driven, not by nice notions of a United Ireland
@camio55: yet FFG who are supposed to be co signatories of the GFA have continuously blocked any debate at government level around the issues that you raise. 24 years has seen enough of their stymying those discussions.
@Joe_X: all your own opinions, which unfortunately for you does not over ride the referendum result on GFA. Sonlets get on with removing the unproven and sometimes outright scare mongering over reunification. Who is running scared of these conversations. SF and their supporters know the change they wish to see across this island for betterment for ALL the citizens on it. They are not hiding from or scared of these conversations at all levels of society and government.
Just on a point of order as they say . The headline says Sinn Rein’s success , what success ???, They have 27 Seats,– exactly as they had previous to the Election , and they increased first Preferences significantly,– no success there is there . They are the dominant Party because DUP actually lost 3 Seats .
The Real winners is the Alliance Party, just a pity that they didn’t get some more .
@Eugene Comaskey: correct
Definitely not, Sinn Féin need to culture this swing of voter change.
It is a massive vote change an a signal.to all parties north and south who piss off the Voters Look at the Republic election next time and look at the vote swing.
Sinn Féin won’t make the mistake of not enough candidates
have your say