WICKLOW IS ONE to watch this weekend. A definite bearpit in this election.

The Taoiseach’s own constituency with a sitting minister in Fianna Fáil’s Stephen Donnelly also holding a seat. 

The constituency has gone from a five to a four seater, so someone is assured to lose a seat here. 

It is being dubbed as one of the key dogfights of this election. Simon Harris is sure to hold his seat here, but much of the spotlight is now falling on Donnelly. 

The health minister has closed his constituency offices in Bray and Greystones, with criticisms of Donnelly centering around him not being present on the ground as well as not being overly involved in the Fianna Fáil cumann. 

While Fianna Fáil appears to have the wind in its sails in this election, it would be a major embarrassment for the party if they were to lose a sitting minister. 

This could be the reason why Micheál Martin was out in Greystones today, canvassing with his party’s candidate who could be in for the fight of his life. 

Martin’s message: Stephen Donnelly has been a transformative Minister for Health.

“And of course, this constituency has gone from a five seater to a four seater, which makes it very competitive. So I am here to help Stephen win that seat,” Martin told reporters. 

Martin said Donnelly has made a difference nationally.

“He’s been a change maker in respect of health, in terms of securing up to 40% additionality in terms of funding, and in particularly having a real impact on women’s health and range of new initiatives and fresh initiatives that he engineered,” he said. 

It is notable also that during the live televised RTÉ’s leaders’ debate on Tuesday, Donnelly was the only candidate Martin name-checked on air.

So are these moments of the party leader talking up his candidate an indicator that Donnelly might be in a spot of bother?

Those on the ground state that Donnelly has been non-existent in the area for years, and people locally have noticed. 

However, sources speaking to The Journal today state that Donnelly is in a much stronger position now than he was three weeks ago. 

Stephen Donnelly has been an outstanding Minister for Health, while also delivering for people locally in Wicklow. I’m urging you to give your No. 1 vote to Stephen tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/Mi2HBT6b3D

— Micheál Martin (@MichealMartinTD) November 28, 2024

It is understood that Donnelly put together a small team when the election was called and they have been soldiering out on canvasses for the minister around the county.

It is understood the campaign has gone well, considering, as mentioned, that he doesn’t even have an office in the county.

One explanation is that Fianna Fáil’s rise is rubbing off on Donnelly. 

Those in the party state that people in Wicklow who like Micheál Martin and want him to be Taoiseach know they have to vote for Donnelly, whether they rate him or not.

Aside from the Taoiseach, Social Democrats TD Jennifer Whitmore has consolidated her vote in the area, and is widely expected to hold her seat. There’s a Sinn Féin vote in the county, so John Brady is expected to get over the line. 

Harris would like to bring in his running mate Edward Timmons, but that is now complicated by former Fine Gael councillor Shay Cullen now running as an Independent candidate.

Cullen is seen as a threat that Donnelly and Green Party TD Stephen Matthews might be in a fight with. 

There’s also speculation that former Fianna Fáil TD Joe Behan could eat some of Donnelly’s lunch. 

The Journal will be at the Wicklow count centre to bring you the latest on who wins out. One thing is for sure. Five into four won’t go.