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MICHEÁL MARTIN HAS endured a tough old time since becoming Fianna Fáil leader in 2011.
Despite overseeing a steady rebuilding of a party decimated at the general election four years ago, the former cabinet minister has been subjected to repeated speculation about his position.
Martin will almost certainly lead Fianna Fáil into the next election but depending on how the party fairs it’s an open question as to whether he’ll be leading them for much longer after that.
Fianna Fáil recently changed the way it elects its leader with the power of the parliamentary party diluted. Under the new electoral college system ordinary members will account for 45% of the vote, TDs will have 40%, and other elected representatives will have 15%.
So having assessed the runners and riders in the Fine Gael leadership race last weekend, we take a look at the prospects of the various, mostly male, Fianna Fáil leadership contenders this week, from most to least likely…
Michael McGrath
The Cork South-Central deputy shares a constituency with Micheál Martin and could potentially edge him out at the general election. But irrespective of what happens there is no doubt the Fianna Fáil finance spokesperson is the favourite for the leadership role.
He may lack the charisma of others but his strong performance in the finance brief has marked him out as one of the party’s most hard-working, talented and capable politicians. One thing that may count against him is his conservative stance on social issues like abortion.
Chances: The strongest contender of the lot.
Dara Calleary
Talented, hard-working and less stand-offish than McGrath, the Mayo TD is a good reader of the Irish political landscape and would be among the more social Fianna Fáil TDs around Leinster House. This sort of stuff counts when it comes to garnering support for a leadership bid.
When we asked him about his leadership ambitions in January, Calleary gave us a typical politician’s answer: “I don’t wake up every morning thinking: ‘Jaysus, I wanna be leader of Fianna Fáil.’” That’s not exactly a ‘no’.
Chances: A very strong contender.
John McGuinness
Unlike others, the chair of the high-profile Public Accounts Committee has made no secret of his leadership ambitions and is frequently critical of the current incumbent and the direction of the party.
The straight-talking Carlow-Kilkenny TD keeps his public profile high with regular media appearances, much to annoyance of some party colleagues. McGuinness’s great strength is his popularity amongst the grassroots (he gets a great reception at ard fheiseanna) but the lack of support among parliamentary colleagues could be his undoing.
Chances: A favourite among the members, but what about TDs?
Darragh O’Brien
Fianna Fáil’s Seanad leader is considered a near certainty for a Dáil seat in Dublin Fingal at the next general election. Having lost his seat in 2011, the 41-year-old took up residency in the Seanad and has proved an effective and combative leader in the upper house, regularly helping to orchestrate government defeats.
O’Brien is a strong media performer and with his return to the Dáil after the next election he would be considered to be among a batch of fresh, young voices that could lead the party into the future. The fact he would likely be the only contender from Dublin might also help.
Chances: The strongest Dublin candidate.
Niall Collins
The Limerick TD was at the forefront of the opposition efforts to force Alan Shatter out last year and acquitted himself well on several occasions with passionate Dáil speeches.
He has strong Fianna Fáil links with his grandfather and uncle both former TDs and his relative youth would be an asset in any leadership election. But he may lack the star quality of others.
Chances: A reasonably strong contender but perhaps not strong enough.
Billy Kelleher
The Cork North-Central TD has been a strong performer in the health portfolio despite the fact it took four years for his party to come up with solid policy proposals in the area.
A frequent critic of James Reilly, he was undoubtedly a contributor to the former health minister’s demotion and has also delivered some passionate yet intelligent speeches on the thorny issue of abortion in the Dáil.
Chances: Definitely among the contenders but that may be all
Eamon Ó Cuív
The Galway West TD would command strong support among rural Fianna Fáil supporters and has strong links to the party’s heritage. He’s also been a frequent critic of the direction of the party in recent years. But, at 64, does he represent the future of Fianna Fáil?
Chances: Age counts against him.
Thomas Byrne
Like O’Brien, Byrne is a former TD who was relegated to the Seanad in 2011 but he’s been a very solid performer in the upper house and is regularly sent out to bat for the party in the media.
Byrne has a good chance of winning back his Dáil seat in Meath East at the general election and could therefore place himself among the leadership hopefuls. At 38 he has youth on his side but that could also mean waiting until the next time out.
Chances: Has a chance but maybe not this time.
Robert Troy
This first-time TD bucked the trend by winning a Fianna Fáil seat ahead of the more experienced Mary O’Rourke in 2011. The Longford-Westmeath deputy is a passionate performer in the Dáil and is somewhat underrated. At 33 he is definitely one for the future.
Chances: Next time out.
Willie O’Dea
It was the veteran Limerick TD who once remarked that there was “no messiah” who could replace Micheál Martin as leader. It was a less than ringing endorsement of the incumbent but as far as we know O’Dea has no great desire to lead the party.
Having been a prominent member of the last Fianna Fail government he’s perhaps tainted by association. But he is a consistent vote-getter, vastly experienced and has good political instincts. Fianna Fáil could do worse.
Chances: Too many links with the past count against him.
Mary Hanafin
It says a lot about Fianna Fáil’s current problems that Hanafin is the only woman we could think of that represents a chance – a very, very slim chance – of leading the party. The former cabinet minister needs to jump through a lot of hoops before she even comes into contention, not least just getting the party’s nomination in Dún Laoghaire.
Hanafin has huge experience and lots of political knowledge but she’s well down the pecking order when it comes to potential future leaders of the party, underlining Fianna Fáil’s urgent need to get more women into its parliamentary ranks in order change it image of being male, pale and stale.
Chances: Little to none.
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Still an old boys club, I include Hanifan in that.
They have my vote as long as they keep their pro life stance.
Folks, don’t be deceived by Amanda. She is not pro-life. “She” is a pro-death, abortion loving left wing feminist who is trying to undermine the right to life’s campaign. May the lord have mercy on her soul. Amen.
For the record I meant I am pro choice!
that’s your second ridiculous comment today after your all celtic fans are in prison line.
I knew it. No one who is pro-life would be so cruel and callous as you’ve been in your posts. We actually value the sanctity of life. Thanks
Ff make me sick
Anybody but ff/fg/lab!
Ohh Angela, even a troll wouldn’t be as incombustible as you.
No young innovative women …. Just boring old f**ts …. male dominated and many ‘light years’ from reality. #shakenvav
Oh lovely, the troll is still here. Journal, how hard can it be to get rid of these fools? You have language filters etc., and are very quick to delete comments you don’t like but yet you allow idiots like these to continue. It brings down the level of intelligence for everyone and is a complete insult. I don’t know… is it just about more clicks for advertising purposes???
that says it all to me same old boys an even bring in some old girls as well. So wont be getting any votes for me here in Wicklow. Stephen Donnelly number 1.
What a dismal set of contenders.
Irelands next tainaiste
Sadly.
Thanks, but I’ll only do it if you’re Taoiseach.
Maybe Gerry Adams might give it a lash?
Who would want to lead them?
Angela/Amanda : STOP TROLLING and making up fake accounts!
Angela where do you keep getting all the phone numbers to make new accounts?
I do apologise if I am annoying. I know I wind people up and I don’t mean too.
Make some real friends and stop being a keyboard nazi! It’s pathetic!
Flipsake Amanda, you’ve managed to troll almost every article in todays journal. Lonely much?
Mrs Joyce from Spiddal, Co Galway?
One looks as dopey as the next.
Coming from you that means a lot!
I wouldn’t give a Fianna Fail party member the steam off my hungover p!ss never mind a vote. Not so much as a transfer would they see from me, regardless of who leads them. The state in which they left the country is clear for all to see from the HSE to our antiquated water system. This shower of clowns cut almost every corner you could think of in their decade plus tenure. Never again for me. Jokers, the lot of them.
Irish people forgive and forget too easily but with a lack of what a lot of people deem ‘credible opposition’ (i.e centre-right alternatives) to vote for they continue to switch votes between the conservatives Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Both parties are led by and peopled with sleeveens, amateurs and self servants. We’ve all seen what Fianna Fail offer; their own leader was a major part of the government that wrecked our economy. We’ve also seen Fine Gael’s contributions; the great “alternative”, cronyism, and antics at every turn. Literally two cheeks of the same backside. I’d vote for neither.
Not this time LeftyMan…….never before have politicians in this country had to travel with so much Garda protection, in all my life I’ve never seen such protest and it’s pretty much countrywide.
Things have changed……the people are awake and the Government are panicking with knee-jerk reaction to protesting on the streets and on the internet.
Al Ca, it just doesn’t seem to be reflective in opinion polls. All predicting 25 seats for Sinn Féin a huge increase but well out of the grasp of forming a government. Fine Gael are predicted to have 50ish and Fianna Fail around 32.
If Sinn Fein didn’t have to battle with the Socialist Parties and PBP they’d be doing much better in Dublin and would probably reach 30 seats. Personally I do think Sinn Féin needs to be more realistic when it comes to economics but I trust them with power.
(This is coming from a Shinner)
Don’t forget na plámásaí ‘s na fealltóirí, Heffer.
The only thing they disagree on is the matter of which set of them gets to sit shotgun! True Seoiníns! The powers that be must find it hilarious!
LeftyMan….one needs to understand that opinion poll questions are slanted towards those who pay for them…..it’s all about repeat business. Give the customer as close to what they want to hear as you can …..without being obvious. The companies who provide polls, play political parties like violins.
They are fairly accurate though, come elections like the last one elections polls were accurate. Sinn Fein are on the up but next government is clearly looking like a FF/FG/LAB government no matter which way you look at it.
What I want to know is how they survived the asteroid when all other dinosaurs didn’t?
Wasters
Will never vote for any of these muppets again that goes for FG and LAB aswell sick of the whole corrupt lot of them.
Again? So you’re admitting to voting for the last two governments? ;)
56% of the electorate voted for this government last election, 47% in the last one, what’s your point Ronan
Thanks for the lesson in representative democracy. If I was making a point I wouldn’t have added a wink smiley. It’s internet for ‘I’m just having the craic’.
You should try it, having a bit of craic I mean, might do you the world of good. ;) <= NB not a serious suggestion
Yep Ronan I did WHY? Most of the country did that’s why they were and are in power. Is there a point to your comment or is it an attempt to make look foolish for voting for them?
That’s not a choice, that’s a dilemma!
Oh sweet Jesus we are totally fckd
Blasphemer
what a shame and a disgrace that Irish politics is so shambolic that it is considered a normality to be let with no other alternative than to chose one corrupted Muppet as opposed to another one. #Toptrumpsdailstyle
what ever happened to Willie o dea after the time he perjured himself?
did Micheal “that developers money was only resting in my wife’s account” martin, ever explain how that money got in there?
Christ on a bike….
Blasphemy
Jake, I believe Mary H refused to make the man some eggs…. Over to you boss
Christ what a odd looking bunch, Michael Martin always looks like he’s just been caught farting. truly these people are the opposite of what we need and represent tired old worn out ideas, I doubt that the students they left behind to go into politics with would even want them back.
O,Cuiv Aw now
Hugh o connell you just never stop
McGrath’s the man! FF and FG are the only parties that can be trusted to run the economy. Sad but incredibly true.
Yeah, Fianna Fail did miracles with our economy the last time they were in government!
So SF and the loony left would do better? We need experienced,competent politicians. Not liars, lunatics and independents ranging from Trotskyites and communists to conservatives and far right extremists. NO THANKS! Better the Devil ya know!
How do you know they’re the only parties than can be trusted?? There’s only ever been civil war parties in government. So your statement is wrong.
There is a huge difference in parties when it comes to actually governing. Do I think Sinn Féin will abolish the USC? No. Do I think they will abolish the property tax? No. The water charges? Yeah, probably.
They do use populist tactics in order to gain support but I support them because I really do believe they will be working in the best interests of Ireland, they have been struggling long and hard in the North to be a part of Ireland that I doubt they’d ever be acting in anything but Irish interests if in power here.
They did. Remember the boom years. Then remember the years before the boom years. When boom went to bust a lot of the causation factors were external. In an open economy like ours when the international elements lead towards boom we boom very well. When international elements lead towards bust we bust very badly.
@micheal
We are way too reliant on the state global economy, watch our ‘recovery’ undone very quickly if anything should happen to it right now.
I’d tell exactly what’s wrong with the other parties but I fear journal.ie will
ban me and people on here will track me down and do a charlie Bird on me.
‘Struggling long and hard in the North.’ That gave me a great laugh. SF have sold out absolutely everyone and everything they ever represented. Not only do the accept British Rule but they are now administering it and silencing dissenting voices. They have recognised the Queen as head of state and bowed down before her. They have taxed the people of the North out of existence and continually blame the Tories which they continually prop up by not contesting Westminster elections. Hypocrites and traitors of the highest order. Not to be trusted under any circumstance or guise. God I miss pawning fools on Journal.
When was the last time you were in the north? You were clearly hearing those opinions on the Shankill not on the Falls.
Come up to the Creggan boy and see for yourself. Last election SF vote was way down, even in the heartland of West Belfast. ‘The times they a changing.’
#1 Are you referring to Local or Westminster elections?
#2 Sinn Féin vote fell by 2% at most compared to the DUP which fell by 6% in Local Elections compared to the previous assembly
So not really. The people I met in West Belfast were all fervent supporters of Sinn Fein
Who Actually gives a Toss
Billy is the only Rank Outsider.
He proved himself as a maverick with Ahern. Everyone else has expectations.
FF failed to distance itself from the Ahern/Cowen eras, and that will cost votes.
Why pretend you have a pedigree when your party is in disgrace?
If someone tricks me i say shame on them, if they trick me a second time i say shame on me.
how about having satan as their party leader…………..they would get bonus points for honesty.
joking aside……….. its too bad the captain of the titanic is not available. he has experience with sinking ships.
Silly season in full swing..
Ah tis good to be back! Was in Oz for 9 months really misse the journal.
You can use the Journal anywhere in the world ???
They have the Internet in Oz.
Good to be back? You’re just another blueshirt account that’s sprung up out of nowhere just like the other 50 accounts that have come and gone..
Ah I was outside the juristriction???
A Blueshirt? Hardly. I support a coalition between FG and FF. The only 2 parties we can count on. I was always on the journal but couldn’t use it for 9 months as I was in Oz.
your account was only set up today. according to your twitter page you are acceding from the US?
John, not very nice to look at people’s Twitter profiles. That’s a bit nosy.
New or Old, you are very well named.
are they advertising for bagmen aswell?
Only a FF/FG/Lab coalition will be able to defeat SF/Et al.
Which gaimbín will it be?
What about Barry “frisky” Cowen ?
Micheal Martin is the most ineffective and counter-productive leader in the history of Fianna Fail. Any time chosen to replace him won’t be an electoral moment too soon. The longer he remains in situ, the more damage he will do to a once-great and ambitious political party.
I hope Sinn Fein are finished after the recent revelations that we all knew about. They are nothing but a gathering of criminals who want to take over this country. Fianna Fáil were always the best Governments that this beautiful country ever had. This present shower, that are in power, have wrecked this country and you need only go outside the pale to see the devastation in our Hospitals, Garda stations ect. The have a record of this carry on anytime the got into power.
Stop bashing FF!
Why?….they bashed the stuffing out of our country………the bloody parasites!
LEAVE BERTIE ALONE!
omg confession time. I gave birth to a Fianna Fail supporter and last week he got a tattoo of all the FF taoiseachs holding hands on his arse. When I saw it, I threw up on it. Very ashamed.
FF should have a vote not for leadership but to disband. That would entice me to join and vote.
We need a Battle Royale/ Hunger Games type elimination here. My money is on Willie o Dea. Say he would be fierce sneaky.
Michael McGrtah is clearly the front-runner in the inevitable heave – a solid performer in finance , good controlled debater . And a fan of MILFs which is never a bad thing…
As for the rest esp Cuiv, Hanafin and Niall Collins – ah Sweet Jaysus – like a bloody donkey sanctuary
A fan of the MILF’S. Love it.
An another E.U. MUPPET…
No, No, No. Thats thomas byrne on the right. He’s a ventriloquist. Thats his puppet on the left.
Michael McGrath is actually one of the good guys. Used to live in his constituency years ago when he was a county councillor. He used to send out a regular news letter. You wouldn’t hear from the rest of them from one election to the next.
M martins legacy will be first f failed leader not to be Taoiseach
Seriously who cares !!! Seriously
Tommy Dooley has been forgotten. Gareth brooks fans won’t be happy .
Fianna fail the party of prosperity…. Come on baby let the good times roll!
A right motley crew if ever there was and a most deserving party to have them as well! Tsk! To hell with FF and to hell with FG & Labour. No one worthy of the Irish electorate. Let’s rejoin Britain and bolster the Lib-Dems.
Each one of them more horrendous than the last.
Ff/fg/lab is just the same recycled cancerous parties over and over again
They don’t give a damn about the normal people of this country it’s all a pure pantomime which people always seem to fall for
This country will continue to go backwards when these 3 parties are being voted for
Do people forget already how much FF broke this country? Do people forget already how much FG has not done one thing it said it would and while times are hard enough they increase taxes, remove benefits, add water charges etc etc and sure labour are beyond useless as Gilmore was nothing more than a puppet and Joan is the same
The future is bleak for Ireland when these 3 are still in contention for leadership
Al Cal go away to bed it’s time to take your medication.
.
I AM SPARTACUS !!! I’ll do it.
Fianna Fail was/is a party founded on corruption!
Martin hang up your bouts and go home to your wife and apologise!
FF destroyed Ireland financially and continues to support corruption !
It was the builders party!
The only one I respect is Ó Cuív.
How could one talk of contenders for FF leadership before the election. After the Election many of those will not be in the reckoning and new TD’s , some of who were there before will be in the mix again. One who was not mentioned, Barry Cowan, is the best FF performer by far in this Dáil..
Really what a delightful prospect !!!!!
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