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Supporters of former president Donald Trump rally at Trump Tower in New York on 3 April, 2023. Alamy Stock Photo
Donald Trump
Will Trump's trial help or hinder his 2024 White House bid?
He was charged with 34 felony counts yesterday, but legal experts are torn on the strength of the legal case against him.
FORMER US PRESIDENT Donald Trump has said he “never thought anything like this could happen in America” after he was charged with 34 felony counts yesterday.
He is charged over hush money payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels and a scheme to bury allegations of extramarital affairs that arose during his first White House campaign.
Trump pleaded not guilty at the historic court hearing in New York, in which he became the first ex-president to ever face criminal charges.
But how damning are the 34 felony counts, when can we next expect to see him appear before court on these charges, and what impact will it have on his 2024 presidential bid?
‘Insult to our country’
Upon returning to his Mar-a-Lago beachfront mansion in southern California after his New York court appearance, Trump claimed: “I never thought anything like this could happen in America – never thought it could happen”.
“The only crime that I’ve committed is to fearlessly defend our nation from those who seek to destroy it,” said Trump. “It’s an insult to our country.”
Legal experts have clashed over the strength of the legal case against Trump.
In an indictment unsealed yesterday, prosecutors say the 45th president falsified records about three hush-money payments to keep potentially damaging stories from coming to light as he campaigned for the presidency.
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg said it was Trump’s effort to cover up crimes related to the 2016 election that allowed prosecutors to elevate the charges to felonies.
However, experts said the indictment raises many thorny issues about state and federal law that could provide openings for the defence to attack the charges to try to get them thrown out before the case even gets to trial.
“The bottom line is that it’s murky,” said Richard Hasen, an expert in election law and professor at the University of California, Los Angeles law school.
“And the district attorney did not offer a detailed legal analysis as to how they can do this, how they can get around these potential hurdles. And it could potentially tie up the case for a long time.”
Analysts said that in the end, the case is not about the details of the hush-money payments.
It is about a presidential candidate using his money and influence to silence potentially damaging stories that might make voters choose another candidate, particularly as Trump’s reputation was suffering at the time from comments he had made about women.
The 34 counts of falsifying business records would normally be misdemeanours, lower-level charges that would not normally result in prison time.
But they were bumped up to felonies — which carry up to four years behind bars — because, Bragg said, they were done in an effort to commit or conceal other crimes.
The $130,000 (€119,000) payment to porn actress Stormy Daniels exceeded the federal cap on campaign contributions, Bragg said.
He also cited a New York state election law that makes it a crime to promote a candidate by unlawful means.
When is Trump next due in court?
The next court date for Trump in relation to these charges is 4 December – two months before Republicans begin their nominating process in earnest – and Trump will again be expected to appear.
However, a conviction would not prevent Trump from running for or winning the presidency in 2024.
Judge Juan Merchan said a trial could potentially start as soon as January – a month before the presidential primaries kick off – although Trump’s lawyers have indicated they would want it pushed back to next spring.
Will this court drama help or hinder a 2024 run?
US voters woke today to a uniquely uncertain 2024 presidential election landscape, where the leading Republican candidate faces trial and the incumbent, Joe Biden, has not even confirmed he’s running.
But what some might have seen as a moment of supreme shame, the Trump team immediately turned into a battle cry.
Polls still show Trump is by far the strongest Republican candidate. In fact, his numbers have only improved as his legal scandals grow.
Meanwhile, his election campaign did not even wait for the Manhattan court hearing to be over before merchandising a T-shirt with a fake mug shot of the former president over the words ‘NOT GUILTY’ in exchange for $47 (€43) donations.
Trump’s team had also sent a fundraising email before flying back to Florida, saying that since the news of his indictment broke, his campaign had raised over $10 million (€9.13m).
“While we are living through the darkest hours of American history, I can say that at least for this moment right now, I am in great spirits,” Trump said when he arrived in Florida.
But even if some analysts have questioned the strength of the New York case, Trump’s real problems may lie elsewhere.
Reports indicate that a high-level probe into his hoarding of top secret White House documents at his private Florida Mar-a-Lago residence is gathering pace.
Another criminal probe is underway in Georgia over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, which he lost to Biden but refused to concede.
Time, however, may be on Trump’s side.
Any trial may not start until well into the 2024 election season and there is nothing to stop someone under indictment from seeking office.
Back in 1920, Eugene V. Debs even famously ran for president –entirely legally – as a Socialist from a jail cell.
And while Trump has injected a giant note of uncertainty into the 2024 race, Biden brings question marks of his own.
His age is a constant source of concern, even to allies. Now 80, he would be 86 by the time he left office after a second term.
And he has yet to confirm he is running at all.
Last year, word was that Biden was looking at a family Christmas holiday in the Caribbean as the moment to take a final decision.
But the weeks and months passed, with no word, even if Biden has said on several occasions that he intends to run.
According to a report from Axios, the announcement may now only land in July or even later.
--© AFP 2023 and with additional reporting from Press Association and Diarmuid Pepper
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