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Joan Burton PA Wire/Press Association Images

Why has Labour's support doubled since May?

Analysis: Joan Burton’s party has gone from 7 per cent to 14 per cent in the latest opinion poll. But why?

THE BIG NEWS from the latest opinion poll is the doubling of support for the Labour party in recent months with a jump from 7 per cent to 14 per cent.

The finding in the Behaviour and Attitudes Poll for the Sunday Times yesterday is the most significant change for any of the four main political parties and a welcome boost for its new leader Joan Burton.

Burton herself is the second most popular party leader in the country trailing only Sinn Féin’s Gerry Adams. At 45 per cent support she has significantly improved on her predecessor as Labour leader and Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore who was at 37 per cent before he resigned after the disastrous local and European elections in May.

So what’s the reason for the big jump in support that’s being dubbed ‘The Burton Bounce’?

1. New leader

This one is obvious. Gilmore had become more and more unpopular over the last three years and having failed to achieve at least 10 per cent support in the May elections he felt it was time to step down. His deputy leader was the most obvious successor and Burton ran a solid if unspectacular leadership campaign, trouncing her rival Alex White and assuming the leadership of the party with a strong mandate from its members.

Despite being in charge of a department that has wielded some of the harshest welfare cuts in recent years Burton remains one of the most popular ministers in the country so it’s no surprise that voters have more time for her than they did for Gilmore.

2. New ministers

As new Labour leader Burton has been allowed to freshen up her ministerial ranks and has sought to promote several of those first elected to the Dáil in 2011 including Alan Kelly, Alex White, and Gerald Nash. This has resulted in the old guard of Gilmore, Ruairí Quinn and Pat Rabbitte being shown the door.

Whatever about Gilmore and Quinn there is no doubt that Rabbitte was a magnet for voter negativity. Many will recall his often misquoted and misinterpreted ‘isn’t that what you do during an election’ line about Labour’s infamous ‘Every Little Hurts’ poster. His noisy departure to the backbenches will have been welcomed by some in Labour who privately felt he was damaging the party’s perception among voters.

New Cabinet Junior Ministers Labour's new ministerial line-up Photocall Ireland Photocall Ireland

3. New agenda 

The arrival of fresh faces in Cabinet has led to plenty of soft media interviews in recent weeks where the likes of new Environment Minister Alan Kelly (who is also the new deputy leader) has talked up plans to tackle the housing crisis in Dublin, junior justice minister Aodhán Ó Ríordain has talked about reform the system of Direct Provision while new rural affairs minister Ann Phelan wants to do more for rural Ireland.

In addition, Burton has set out her main priorities including tackling falling wages by setting up a low-pay commission. She has also talked about re-prioritising the push for a deal on legacy bank debt.

Meanwhile, Public Spending Minister Brendan Howlin has been out in recent weeks playing to Labour’s base by mooting the incremental reversal of the public sector pay cuts in the coming years – much to the annoyance of Fine Gael.

How much of all this talk to voters actually pick up on? Probably not a lot but broadly when they hear a new and younger Labour minister setting out new priorities rather than an old and long-serving Labour minister telling us it has to be this way because of Fianna Fáil that can’t do any harm.

Irish Labour Party conference Niall Carson Niall Carson

4. There’s nothing happening 

Beyond the fact there’s a new leader the biggest reason for the jump may be the fact that everyone is on their summer holidays and the government, and particularly Labour, hasn’t had a chance to mess anything up as it appeared to be doing for much of the first half of the year.

Burton was elected Labour leader at the beginning of July and over the following fortnight she hammered out a new agenda, appointed some new ministers and then everyone went off on their holidays for two months as the Dáil went into recess in September.

All of which appears to have benefited Labour. The challenge now is to maintain this support when TDs return next month.

The Burton Bounce: Labour double support in latest polls

Read: Fine Gael TDs like the idea of a voting pact more than Labour TDs

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73 Comments
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    Mute linda o neill
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:25 AM

    Watch their friends at RTE now promoting them like the new Messiahs… The water charge will still get them hammered

    213
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    Mute andrew
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:24 AM

    Dail in recess. No change in policy. Inexplicably, for somebody who apparently wanted to establish a unique identity for Labour, Alan Kelly wants a voting pact with FG. I wouldn’t really pay much attention to this poll.

    I don’t think it is the water charges that will ‘get them hammered’. I think it is a more deep rooted problem: their inability to devise a leftist set of policies. And I don’t feel this is because they don’t want to. I genuinely think some of the Labour members would like to (those who clearly wouldn’t support the Kelly line). It is more a case of simply being unable to. They don’t have the ability.

    They conceal this inability by complaining that they are in a coalition and so have to tailor their policies accordingly.But this is evasive.I really don’t think they are up to the task. They don’t have the ability (I am assuming that some of them do have the will, debatable I know)

    In the meantime, they compensate for lack of ability and lack of policy direction by appealing to vague notions of ‘fairness’ and ‘justice’. And drift in whatever direction they are being pushed, by FG or the media, at any given time.

    83
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    Mute Kate Ellen Egan
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    Aug 18th 2014, 12:04 PM

    Because Brendan Howlin is restoring state employees pay , not benchmarking to those in the private sector on low pay

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    Mute Paul Mc
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    Aug 18th 2014, 12:30 PM

    Maybe the so called increase in support is because not only are the Labour party doing nothing but the are actually saying nothing aswell.

    36
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    Mute Were Jammin
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:27 AM

    Jobsbridge Joan should enjoy her bump, because when the first water bills drop thorough peoples letterboxes in January, around the same time as the next round of property tax demands, she’ll be looking back at her current 14% rating with the nostalgia of a happy childhood memory.

    198
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    Mute IrishGravyTrain
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:22 AM

    Because the Irish have memories as good as goldfish.

    168
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    Mute doc samoflange
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:24 AM

    Absolutely no chance I’ll vote for them again in my lifetime, especially with that yoke at the helm

    158
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    Mute Oil Be Honest
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:25 AM

    Because we live in a nation where amnesia seems to be a pandemic… Sad but true!

    132
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    Mute Kevin Brady
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:24 AM

    Because Irish people are stupid and very forgetfull!

    117
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    Mute Brian Delivers
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:22 AM

    Because they surveyed half the amount of people?

    90
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    Mute Boganity
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:29 AM

    Because it’s a classic dead cat bounce…to a stratospheric 14%, that means they stink for 86% of voters.

    100
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    Mute Ruairi Colton
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:37 AM

    Nothing surprises me in irish politics. Labour, like the other parties have a core suppport who temporarily leave them from time to time when things go bad but always go back home in the end. Ask ff. They understand this and it doesnt matter what they do.

    74
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    Mute Ruairi Colton
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:39 AM

    Foreign govts must think we are a nation of bog men and ugly women. Look at what represents us.

    70
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    Mute Dave Harris
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:53 AM

    Ruari, really, as bad as the current government is, they are mere amateurs in bad mean ineptitude compared to many other governments around the world – take the current Australian government for an example.

    Sure the Irish government is an embarrassment but get some perspective

    11
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    Mute SeanieRyan
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    Aug 18th 2014, 2:31 PM

    Not a fan of the current Govt. but get a grip with the self pity and the “shure we’re de wurst in de world” self loathing.

    Who the fu88 do you think you are, or we are that anyone outside of here gives 2 fu88s either way about us.

    If anything all evidence suggest Ireland has a very positive reputation, maybe more positive than we deserve.

    10
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    Mute Shane Mullally
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:25 AM

    Ship and deck chairs at the ready…for more choppy waters(Irish water)…bribe the Irish ppl will low budget,then wham…

    67
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    Mute John Fairclough
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:18 AM

    The Irish love a good old Right Wing party like Labour

    59
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    Mute Dave Moran
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:27 AM

    From what I’ve witnessed from FF nothing would surprise me about the stupidity of the irish voter…!

    51
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    Mute Gerald Gallagher
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    Aug 18th 2014, 12:32 PM

    Real Labour you must be mad she has supported every right winged policy that FG has introduced since they went into governmemt
    Never will i vote for Labour again

    48
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    Mute Liam Ó Séicspéir
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    Aug 18th 2014, 12:02 PM

    Regardless of what happens, the FG-Lab coalition has absolutely zero chance of being re-elected. 2016 will be interesting…

    47
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    Mute Kieron Connolly
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    Aug 18th 2014, 3:33 PM

    The maths suggest otherwise, Liam

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    Mute Liam Ó Séicspéir
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    Aug 18th 2014, 4:53 PM

    Looking at the last 10 opinion polls I’m seeing 38%, 32%, 32%, 26%, 25%, 26%, 31%, 36%, 35% and 30%, plus 27.6% in the European elections and 31.2% in the local elections. I’m not sure which figures are suggesting I’m wrong, but I suppose time will tell.

    12
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    Mute Robert O Brien
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:33 AM

    she looks like and smells like Margaret thatcher keep her out off power

    47
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    Mute John Tierney
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    Aug 18th 2014, 12:05 PM

    Because they’re on holidays. They can’t screw anything up until they’re back in September? October? November?

    45
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    Mute Jimbo Murphy
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:36 AM

    What is the margin of error in these polls? Do these figures include “don’t know”s? Without this information polls are meaningless.

    36
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    Mute Itsthe Law
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:33 AM

    Oliver Callan has Joan 100%.

    30
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    Mute luke daly
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:43 AM

    The margin for error in both reference surveys was probably about 2.5% giving Labour an actual increase of 2%

    30
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    Mute Ciarán
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:05 AM

    That’s not how statistics work its a minimum increase of 2%

    14
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    Mute luke daly
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:28 AM

    Agree, the actual increase part was an opinion.

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    Mute David Thomas
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:58 AM

    She looks like Wallace in a wig!

    29
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    Mute Bridget O'Hanlon
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:20 AM

    Oh Yes, boys, because what the political leaders look like, or whether we find them personally attractive or not is the only thing that matters! Pathetic

    22
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    Mute SeanieRyan
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    Aug 18th 2014, 2:35 PM

    For too many people the local TD saying hello and being nice and chatty, or good looking is all that matters.

    How many people have u heard here that fell out with a TD or cllr over not being saluted or them not going to a wedding or a funeral or some rubbish like that.

    When the electorate have so many damaged child like people it explains a lot.

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    Mute Caoimhin O Hailpin
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    Aug 19th 2014, 10:18 PM

    good looking TDs ??? ah cmon

    1
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    Mute DamoDeMan
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    Aug 18th 2014, 12:37 PM

    They should stop ringing mental hospitals
    to do these surveys
    It is the only reason I can see for a jump in support
    Nothing is happening
    When the Dail comes back
    and they start speaking
    then it will drop again

    28
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    Mute Ben Dover
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:34 AM

    Maybe those people were Labour voters that they surveyed ? Either than that ,I really don’t know !

    23
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    Mute Dave O'Hanlon
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:18 AM

    I think this survey probably happened in South East Dublin

    33
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    Mute Martin Hayes
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    Aug 18th 2014, 1:59 PM

    The Labour bounce is an illusion. Howlin’s comments re wage reinstatement in the dysfunctional, cossetted, Public Service is just a slap in the face for low paid workers in the private sector who would naturally be Labour supporters and who didn’t even merit a mention. These will all now gravitate towards SF.

    19
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    Mute Reg
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:30 AM

    I think there’s a pretty simple answer to this question……Eamon Gilmore.

    19
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    Mute KentuckyWindage
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:01 AM

    Actually, it’s because Joan Burton is so stunningly beautiful!!

    15
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    Mute Alan O'connor
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:35 AM

    Shinners have already promised to get rid of water charges (or did they?) and property tax without any credible explanation of how they would make up the deficit and still the people don’t want to know.

    Who knows what other crap they’ll make up in their desperate grab of power?

    Maybe Gerry could pay for his own Irish lessons? That might help.

    17
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    Mute Simon Barnes
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    Aug 18th 2014, 12:01 PM

    errrr. this is a Labour article.

    34
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    Mute Norman Hunter
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    Aug 18th 2014, 12:05 PM

    Simon,Alan loves to rant about SF every chance he gets leave him be.

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    Mute Gerald Gallagher
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    Aug 18th 2014, 12:53 PM

    Alan just like the every little hurts flyers that Labour had up all over the place and just look at it labour have helped to introduce almost everything they warned us about on it

    21
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    Mute Jopmarsy
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    Aug 18th 2014, 1:42 PM

    Alan, I think you are afraid of Sinn Fein, looks like they are a proper left wing party unlike Labour who have become poodles for Fine Gael

    22
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    Mute Caoimhin O Hailpin
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:16 PM

    @Alan you are obsessed with Sinn Fein me thinks

    6
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    Mute Robin Tobin
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    Aug 18th 2014, 4:09 PM

    I was at a funeral last week, another funeral last December, another funeral in the spring of 2013 , i am perplexed because all these funerals I was at were for young successful suicide victims. All young men the youngest one was ages 17 years. If labour are getting a bounce in the polls well holy moses Kathlene Lynch according to the Doctors who treat depression are telling me , the services are cut back beyond helping any depressed victim. Are people f**ken mad . I will never again even consider voting for this party, I am fed up meeting the parents of these men who keep saying if they could only have got them admitted , but the cut backs have reduced beds and doctors.

    On the 23 rd of December 2013 my son a leaving cert student then was delighted he got his football jersey in the post. I left him and went to the shops , by the time I got home he was crying because a friend call to tell him, his other friend had jumped out the department window that morning and killed himself. The dead lads mother claims she could no access services for him.

    In the Spring of last year my other son got a call to tell him a friend aged 20 had hung himself in his mothers sitting room while she went to Dunnes stores to get a sandwich he requested.

    Labour are the savages who cut back and punished the people who voted for them on there election lies. Well in memory of all the youth I know who committed suicide I wont be voting for them or Fine gael again.

    16
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    Mute Stephen Grehan
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    Aug 18th 2014, 5:17 PM

    Joan Burton is gimmemore in drag. The only bounce she should experience is on her backside out of leinster house. She is a complete traitor to the people who voted for her.

    14
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    Mute Shadowman
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:36 AM

    Maybe it’s because, despite her drony voice, people like her and think she’s real Labour. She works damn hard and I’m expecting her to fight the old cabal of patronising smiles and lies, and put the sword to the smug fairyland of the Dail.

    13
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    Mute Dave O'Hanlon
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:19 AM

    You do know she’s responsible for Job-bridge

    54
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    Mute Jopmarsy
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    Aug 18th 2014, 1:46 PM

    Yeah, ok Shadowman, she will fight the Lies, just like she has done for the past couple of years??? Get real!

    15
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    Mute Niall Condren
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:48 AM

    Yes I too have gone from despising Labour to fully supporting them. I can’t even remember why I disliked them in the first place! Joan is very likely to get the country back on its feet. I’ve never been more optimistic.

    Labour!!!

    12
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    Mute John Mulligan
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    Aug 18th 2014, 12:18 PM

    Less a Burton Bounce than a Rabbitte Run. They needed to lose the old WP cadre, everybody wanted to see the back of them.
    Having said that, they did put some good talent in place. Alan Kelly and Ann Phelan are two good ones that can make a difference, even allowing for the hand they’ve been dealt.

    11
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    Mute Hung Xi
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    Aug 18th 2014, 6:12 PM

    Where are these polls carried out? I’ve never been asked to take part in one and the same goes for anybody that I know.

    7
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    Mute Bob MacBob
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    Aug 18th 2014, 12:09 PM

    I would imagine the bounce has a lot to do with Joan’s popularity. Gilmore was a total cold fish.

    Also, maybe some people are beginning to understand that austerity worked and got the country back from the brink of economic annihilation.

    5
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    Mute Martina Kealy
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    Aug 18th 2014, 12:08 PM

    Joan is genuine. One of the few. And I support FF.

    4
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    Mute Paul Devlin
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    Aug 18th 2014, 7:20 PM

    It never hurts to kick out the sticks but the end of the WP shysters is only going to be a short term solution. The basic problem is that Labour has never in its history had any real hold on the imagination or culture of the people. Like or loathe FF & FG (I’m in the latter camp) they were the parties of the people. Labour, unable to find a true place, has just become FG for civil servants. It’s relevance to working class people is negligible

    4
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    Mute Caoimhin O Hailpin
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    Aug 18th 2014, 9:59 PM

    spot on analysis Paul

    3
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    Mute Caoimhin O Hailpin
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    Aug 18th 2014, 9:53 PM

    Answer because it has not……….

    3
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    Mute Tonzst Corbett
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    Aug 18th 2014, 7:32 PM

    Went from 3 people to 6

    3
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    Mute Bernard Mc Donnell
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    Aug 18th 2014, 2:51 PM

    So it’s gone from one to two?

    3
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    Mute Martina Kealy
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    Aug 18th 2014, 12:08 PM

    Joan is genuine. One of the few. And I support FF.

    3
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    Mute Annette O Connor
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    Aug 18th 2014, 8:00 PM

    I’ve heard Joan Burton speak and she IS on the side of ordinary Irish people. I’ve asked her questions and she gives honest answers. Give labour the mandate to govern on their own and watch the Celtic tiger recover and look after her cubs again.

    1
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    Mute Caoimhin O Hailpin
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    Aug 18th 2014, 9:57 PM

    Hi Annette, problem is I do not believe labour or Joan Burton… they promised more or less pleaded in the last general election to put them in Government to protect ordinary people from those aweful Fine Gaelers…everything they warned us that Fine Gael would do has come to pass with Labour been there…..

    I do not think the Celtic Tiger model served us very well

    8
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    Mute Annette O Connor
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    Aug 18th 2014, 10:19 PM

    And they have kept a rein on FG. The neoliberal plan to privatise everything in Ireland would have been fully carried out by FG if they governed alone. FG is on the same side of the street as the piranhas behind the IMF. If Labour hadn’t tried to rein them in you’d have ireland being run by a Tory like party who pull the ladders up on the most vulnerable. Put Labour in charge of Ireland. Wait ten years and the legacies of the past will be dealt with and ireland will have a great and fairer society.

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    Mute Caoimhin O Hailpin
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    Aug 18th 2014, 11:22 PM

    Hi Annette what about what Labour promised they would prevent FG from doing ? and failed and its a big if that they even tried in the first place ?
    Also what you say about ladders been pulled up on the vulnerable is exactly what has happened with Labour while Labour have been in Government.
    I do not see where Labour even tried to rein in FG

    7
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    Mute Annette O Connor
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    Aug 19th 2014, 12:07 AM

    See below.

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    Mute Annette O Connor
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    Aug 19th 2014, 12:23 AM

    One socialist should not attack another for electoral gain. Support the socialist movement.

    1
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    Mute Annette O Connor
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    Aug 19th 2014, 12:23 AM

    One socialist should not attack another for electoral gain. Support the socialist movement.

    1
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    Mute Annette O Connor
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    Aug 19th 2014, 12:21 AM

    I had my comment removed?! Censorship?!?!

    1
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    Mute Annette O Connor
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    Aug 19th 2014, 12:03 AM

    How bad would unrefined FG cuts have been. It’s obvious you are undermining them in an effort to grab the socialist votes. Austerity was necessary. It was handled brilliantly. Look at Argentina. South Africa. It could have been a lot worse if Labour were not there to check on and limit the damage. Sickens me why one socialist attacks another just for electoral gain. Join forces.

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    Mute Caoimhin O Hailpin
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    Aug 19th 2014, 10:26 PM

    We did get unrefined FG cuts and it was because Labour was doing the un refining? or not

    you continue not to answer about ” the cuts Labour said Fine Gael would implement if they were on their own and that by voting Labour we would prevent that.

    You say ” austerity was necessary but handled brilliantly” ah cmon.

    It is labour that excludes all other groupings

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    Mute Annette O Connor
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    Aug 19th 2014, 12:21 AM

    I had my comment removed?! Censorship?!?!

    1
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