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Connolly meets Niamh Ni Ehainnin from Neath, and her seven-month-old daughter Roisin, in the Navan Shopping Centre yesterday. Alamy Stock Photo
8 days to go
Connolly is way out in front of Humphreys in a new presidential opinion poll
The number of people who said they ‘don’t know’ how they will vote for is still relatively high at 18%.
LAST UPDATE | 16 Oct 2025
CATHERINE CONNOLLY IS significantly ahead of Heather Humphreys in the race for the Áras, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll.
The poll found that Connolly, the Independent TD who’s being backed by various left-wing parties including Sinn Féin, had the support of 38% of those surveyed, while Fine Gael’s candidate Heather Humphreys was on 20%.
Fianna Fáil’s former candidate, Jim Gavin, who left the presidential race last week but is still on the ballot paper, is at 5%.
This is the first poll to have been carried out since Gavin withdrew from the election, which came after it emerged he had owed a former tenant more than €3,000 since 2009.
The poll of 1,200 voters was taken between Sunday and Tuesday.
With just over a week to go before voting takes place, the number of people who said they ‘don’t know’ who they will cast their vote for is still relatively high at 18%.
12% of those surveyed said they will not vote, while 6% said they plan to spoil their vote.
This poll also suggests that any second preference votes from Gavin will be divided evenly between Connolly and Humphreys.
The majority of voters (67%) said Gavin was right to leave the race, including Fianna Fáil voters, 68% of whom agreed.
It also revealed that almost half of all voters (49%) do not feel represented by any of the candidates.
Over half (55%) said it should be easier to run for the Áras, while 45% said conservative candidate Maria Steen should have been facilitated to make it into the race.
Humphreys today disagreed with the assertion that the poll indicates she’s likely to lose.
“There’s still a week to go in this election campaign, and if you look at the last three weeks, there’s been a lot of changes,” she told RTÉ Radio One.
“I’m long enough around to know that polls will come and polls will go, but the real poll is actually on election day.”
Campaign trail
The two candidates have been busy campaigning during the week, with Connolly’s visiting Navan, Co Meath yesterday and Humphreys going to Co Cavan.
Yesterday, while speaking to reporters as she campaigned at a shopping centre in Navan, Connolly said Fine Gael is “very worried” about the momentum behind her campaign.
She said: “I think they’re very worried that this movement is gaining momentum with every day, every minute, every hour.
“That’s been the response since I went out in July, it has just gained in intensity.
“The people of Ireland will decide and that’s what is so special about this election.”
Meanwhile, Humphreys criticised Connolly for “insulting” Ireland’s allies, in a reference to previous comments from her opponent where she said “cannot trust” US, the UK or France.
Humphreys said: “My views are that I am pro-European, and I certainly won’t insult France, the UK or indeed the US.
Presidential debate
On Tuesday, the two Áras candidates took part in the third head-to-head debate of the presidential election on Newstalk’s The Pat Kenny Show.
The pair were grilled by the veteran broadcaster on their past records, their views on Donald Trump and the Triple Lock, and the themes of their respective campaigns.
They were also questioned on stories that have arisen throughout the course of the election, with Connolly asked about employing a person convicted by the Special Criminal Court on firearms charges, and remarks made by the mother of hit-and-run victim Shane O’Farrell put to Humphreys.
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