TheJournal.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more »
Dublin: 12 °C Monday 20 May, 2013

Ireland ‘should be praying for a second bailout’, DCU economist warns

Tony Foley said only borrowing more billions from the EFSF would save Ireland from paying punitive interest rates on financial markets.

IMF official Ajai Chopra arrives at the Central Bank in November 2010
IMF official Ajai Chopra arrives at the Central Bank in November 2010
Image: Peter Morrison/AP/Press Association Images

IRELAND IS LIKELY to require a second bailout – and we “should be praying” that the EU and IMF are willing to arrange one, a senior economist at Dublin City University has said.

Tony Foley said the current Government proposal was for Ireland to borrow around €12billion on international financial markets in 2013 – but warned the country would likely end up paying crippling interest rates.

It would be far preferable to arrange a second bailout from the European Financial Stability Fund, he told RTÉ’s Morning Ireland, saying:

The country will owe €206billion in total by 2015, and be paying around €10billion in interest alone every year [...] We should be praying for a second bailout, because it will be a much better deal than going into the markets.

Foley, a senior lecturer and head of the economics group at DCU Business School, was commenting on a warning made yesterday by Citigroup economist Willem Buiter that Ireland should negotiate a ‘standby’ second bailout  in case we are unable to return to the markets.

Backing Buiter’s analysis, he said the international lending climate was now far worse than when we received the first bailout.

More: Ireland should negotiate ‘standby second bailout’, says Citi chief>

Read next:

Comments (42 Comments)

  • Ciaro 10/01/12 #

    We cant continue to sit around and watch what happens. Its time the government (or better still the people) took some decisive action to deal with this mess.

    Negotiate a writedown on debt, longer payback period, fixed interest rate.

    Reply
  • 206 billion divided by 1.8 billion workforce equals 115,000 each.
    What sort of government did we elect where we each owe 115K plus pay tax. What lunatic thinks this will ever be paid? Even after 2015 we will still be spending more that we take in. My auld lad (79) says he knows what’s wrong with this country “too many people driving biros”

    Reply
  • This smells very like an attempt to socialise the concept of another bailout with the Irish people. So I guess handout number 2 is on the way. BTW I’ve never really understood why they call them “bailouts”. The term implies we’re getting something for nothing which isn’t the case. We’re paying interest on this money so why call it a bailout ?

    Reply
  • Interest is like the rake at a poker table, if you sit at it long enough, the dealer ends up with all the money.
    As a country we should be working to live within our means.

    Reply
  • I would love a toasted ham and cheese!

    Reply
  • Danny D 10/01/12 #

    Troika should pray for us to pay back the last one ;)

    Reply
    • I agree Danny D.

      Remember the old saying that if you owe the bank €1000 you’re in trouble, but if you owe them €1000000 the bank is in trouble.

      Well if a country owns a bailout fund a billion, the country’s in trouble….

      Reply
  • Looking like default is our only option. Seems only a matter of time.

    Reply
    • Dead right, B. But it’s much more likely some other actor will cause this, with IRL benefitting as a side effect of currency collapse or others’ sovereign default.

      As to the first comment, who is this guy? Bertie Aherne reincarnated? Is there an anorak below the neckline?

      Reply
    • Just to note, a default isn’t a good thing. Even though it’s probably the only option avaliable at this stage. I support defaulting, but i dont support the lefts view that it would be all hunky dory if we defaulted. It would mean serious quick change in this country. Not too mention ALOT of public service workers on the streets id imagine.

      Reply
    • Default is not an option, it is an inevitability. Mitigation of that problem is what the EU and the Govt. here needs to focus on. It will not be pleasant either way. The longer that it is put off the more unpleasant it will be for all.

      Reply
    • Our external debt is 1.7 trillions euro – we’ll have to default – we cannot pay that much -it’s an appalling amount of (electronic) money ( we owe €390,969 Foreign debt per person EACH)!!!!!!!!!

      This a great link which offers visualisations of who owes who what…………

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

      Reply
  • Drama 10/01/12 #

    As long as you can wake up everyday & live your life…who cares

    Reply
    • Like the cut of your gib drama

      Reply
    • Life without liberty? Wake up and smell the roses. Your not free. Your a debt slave.. Is that the life you want

      Reply
    • @ed, I am NOT. A debt slave , I live within my means and when the government take money out of my left pocket , I take money out of their right pocket, I have an affordable mortgage, I earn money legitimately to shore up what has been taken, you hear about there being no jobs etc etc , I can tell ya now edwardo, we are one shower of lazy b******s as a race,my friend has a hair salon and cannot get a decent hairdresser, the good ones don’t want to work and that leaves the useless ones who leave after a week or so. So in conclusion , you make you mind up as an individual if you want to be a TAKER or a GIVER , you get up of your fat arses and start fighting and if that is not your cuppa tea, stop whining and leave the rest of us go and and have a decent life.

      PS not aimed at you directly BTW but to the lazy shower in this country

      Reply
    • Drama @
      I like your attitude
      Dave O’Shea @
      You are so right .
      We are lazy as a nation.
      I live on a road and except for myself and two or three others out of 50
      we are the only ones that clean up out side .I know it is a simple thing
      but just to take a brush and sweep the path,clear the weeds pick up papers , but its a start.
      A sense of pride. It is a start !

      Reply
    • I am not a debt slave either. I do believe in living beyond my means. Maybe I am lucky !

      Reply
    • @Dave, you’re not a debt slave yet, but the way things are going you will be. Once the asset stripping is finished, all public services are in private hands, THEN you’ll really start to feel the pain, taxes will carry on upwards of course, then with tighter fiscal union, and Ireland not able to hit it’s targets we’ll be fined by the EU, driving the country further into debt…etc….
      Look at the long game. The current situation is only the start.

      Reply
  • Why no immediate denial from noonan kenny ? This was floated yesterday but not a whisper they are normally first out of the blocks with good news or to deny.
    Perhaps they bail boys are going to tell paddy his home work is heading for the dustbin

    Reply
  • Prayer wont help!

    Reply
  • Luck we kept them Irish Punt’s printing machines, as I think they’ll be needed very soon.

    Reply
  • Its time we were told the truth. We wont get that from our politicians or the eu. I think there should be a debate on this problem to fully understand it & then make a decision maybe that would be out of the eu default whatever but a decision & before someone comes on & says thats economic suicide jumping the eu ship I say in the words of Michael Collins,lets save our country,f##k the eu. If we jump ship maybe the eu will do something then. The politics game is over after this we will have violence. Please Ireland lets save our beautiful country.

    Reply
    • It’s time to call a halt to all this nonsense! Look at all the hits the Irish people have taken so far! If a light at the end of the tunnel could be seen, then ok, the pain would be worth it! However it seems the tunnel just keeps getting longer. We can’t sit back and watch anymore. The people in charge of this mess aren’t up to it. Surely going it alone has to be better than what will happen if we continue to let others outwith Ireland dictate the future. It’s not so long ago that the rest of Europe were falling over themselves trying to emulate Bertie’s economic miracle. It’s just not possible for consistent growth to take place when so much money is taken out of an economy. If Europe wants Ireland to stay on board, the debt has to be restructured.Say at something under 2% over 100 years. Anything less than that means default is a certainty.

      Reply
  • Cpm 10/01/12 #

    Two points:

    * This idea can be attributed to Willem Buiter, not Tom Foley
    * You don’t have to be an economist to realise a 3% interest rate is better than a 8-12% rate, so eh, bring it on! If we need the money lets get it at the cheapest rate possible.

    Reply
  • These Economists with their opinions, they have all become a bit repetitive & boring, but I agree with this economists opinion above, we cannot afford to pay this money back unless we decide to strip the country of its assets. Presently we have made small savings in recent budgets but they are being wiped out by the interest repayments on monies loaned to goverment. Start running the printing presses!!

    Reply
  • Price fixing has never worked whether It’s potatoes, petrol or interest rates. Yes, the IMF could give a better interest rate but at the end of the day the market will catch up with this country and sh*t will hit the fan.

    Reply
  • If Ireland does default I don’t want to be living here at the time

    Reply
  • We could dress Enda Kenny up as Angela Merkel and hope he gets paid for borrowing the money

    Reply
  • Dave 10/01/12 #

    No, what we should be “praying for” is for a refusal to pay bank debt that WE DON’T MORALLY owe!!

    Reply
  • Shouldn’t it be Europe that’s parying that we’ll either be back in the markets or around when this second bailout will (not might) be needed? Only takes one card to bring the whole house dwn! We’ve been the whipped dogs of Europe aka the good boys and girls and have gotten sod all back from Europe only their insistance on more austerity. Pull the plug and that dying monolith and let’s get on with recovering.

    Reply
  • It’s time for all the so called economists to shut up and go away. They are all full of there own self importance. They just love talking about doom and gloom. They will talk us back into another recession.

    Reply
    • Doom & gloom honesty is orders of magnitude better than sticking your head in the sand.

      Reply
    • Never realised we left the original recession – anyway lets call a spade a spade – Depression!

      Reply
    • “it’s time for all the so called economists to shut up and go away” Torpedo economists that kept quiet during the celtic tiger years is the reason were in this mess.He’s only pointing out that the markets won’t buy Irish government bond’s at a good rate meaning we will need money from somewhere else or a second bailout.
      If and more likely we do get a second bailout that mean’s more or if any power’s held by our
      government will be handed over to the EU.
      That mean’s bye bye 12.5% corporation tax.

      Reply
    • It doesn’t take an economist to go to the medium term fiscal outlook published by the Irish government that outlines how much debt we are taking on; or to go investigate and discover that if Ireland were to borrow on the markets today it would be at 8%

      Our debt dynamics don’t work because eventually debt interest grows to become larger than income or all other spending.

      It takes a five year old with some basic addition and multiplication skills to work that out, not an economist.

      Reply
    • Torpedo. We are hardly coming out of the last recession. This will be classified as an economic depression by the time that this is all over. The underlying no’s of the economy are what is driving recession, not negative or positive talk. This is not a Gok Wan makeover show. Looking at it all in a new way does not change the figures. Debt write down or default has been a certainty for countless European banks and many sovereigns since this started. What cannot be paid back, will not be paid back. Irregardless of what one thinks of it. We are heading to a situation in a few years time, where we will be paying 10bn a year in interests for the bankbailouts. That equates to nearly all of this states income tax stream. How is that sustainable. It is not, everyone knows that, from Kenny to Barroso and the EU/ECB. Kenny and crew are waiting to see what comes up hoping for a deal for Ireland as part of a wider resolution. The latter could not care either way, they have an ideological dream of a united Europe and the good of the people or regional economies will not get in the way.

      Reply
    • Back into another recession?? In political terms we aren’t in a recession but in reality 1% growth is a recession…

      Reply
  • This government are like a bunch of lemmings heading to the cliff not one of them seem to have anything worthwhile to say they are afraid to say anything so they say nothing other than gobble gook spin talk horse shit leadership my arse

    Reply
  • Fianna Fáil-er.

    Reply

Add New Comment