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Dublin: 10 °C Thursday 23 May, 2013

Average TD is more pro-EU than average voter: study

Has EU integration gone too far? ‘Yes’ say 45 per cent of voters – but only 18 per cent of TDs.

The average TD in Fine Gael and Labour is more pro-EU than the average person who voted for them.
The average TD in Fine Gael and Labour is more pro-EU than the average person who voted for them.
Image: Peter Morrison/AP

THE AVERAGE TD is significantly more in favour of further integration between European Union states than the average voter, a new study has found.

Research carried out by Michael Courtney of Trinity College’s Department of Political Science has found that the average member of the public is significantly more likely to believe that European integration has gone too far.

Expressed on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 represents too much integration and 10 represents too little, about 45 per cent of the general population would give an answer of 4 or lower.

This compares to only about 18 per cent of the Dáil, the study said, using 2011 surveys of successful general election candidates and of general public sentiment.

Courtney’s study, published by the London School of Economics, argues that the difference in opinions is largely accounted for by the fact that the demographics of the Dáil are significantly different to that of the general public.

“Irish MPs are more likely to be male, middle-class, middle aged and more highly educated than voters,” Courtney notes, later adding:

The general hypothesis is that MPs drawn from over-represented social groups will be in favour of more EU integration. Conversely we should see that female, young, lower class and less educated MPs should be less in favour of EU integration.

He goes on to argue that those in the high-earning social classes, which are better represented in the Dáil than in general society, are more likely to favour European integration than the lower-earning classes which provide proportionally fewer TDs.

Much of the gap between public and political opinion appears to come from Fine Gael and Labour voters: taking the same 0-to-10 poll, the average Fine Gael TD answered 6.16, while the average Labour TD gave 5.58. Those TDs made up 113 of the 165 elected last year.

This compares to answers of 4.4 and 4.2 for Fine Gael and Labour voters respectively.

Sinn Féin TDs and voters showed the highest gap, with the average Sinn Féin TD giving an answer of 0.67 – believing that EU integration had gone way too far – while the average Sinn Féin voter gave an answer of 4.3.

The study argues, however, that the divergent opinions between the Dáil and the general population does not represent a democratic deficit – as the terms of the Irish constitution require a referendum every time it is proposed to give more power to the EU.

This is in contrast to the UK, where the referendums on public policy are relatively rare – meaning that an individual MP’s opinions, which could turn the outcome of a vote in parliament, are subject to higher scrutiny.

Germany: Support grows for referendum on further EU integration

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Comments (52 Comments)

  • Hannan’s First Law: no party is Eurosceptic while in office.

    Reply
    • Of course the one factor that is neglected in Michael’s Courtney’s analysis is the effect on TD’s opinions of having knowledge not available to the general public! Thus we are presented with a good example of where the interpretation of statistical information is influenced by heuristics above impartial science.

      Reply
    • It’s surprising then that they don’t share this information with the rest of us. If, when in government, they are furnished with additional details that mean the EU makes sense and should be preserved then they should share this information with those of us who think it’s going too far too fast. Especially as, at some point, people who don’t know this secret knowledge could referendum the EU apart.

      Reply
    • “Europe’s nations should be guided towards the super-state without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation.”
      Jean Monnet, Founder of the European Movement.

      Reply
    • Damocles often it is called ‘tacit knowledge’ and any academic worth their salt will factor it into the analyses of opinion surveys. Thus I am making no argument in support of European integration or not. My point is technical, esoteric and critical of non scientific surveys that falsely masquerade as quality analysis.

      Reply
    • Damocles 13/08/12 #

      Charles, my comment was rhetorical rather than an explicit request for this hidden knowledge.

      Reply
    • As were mine Damocles.

      Reply
  • Frankfurt’s way or Labours way? …

    And we all know what happened next.

    Reply
  • The study argues, however, that the divergent opinions between the Dáil and the general population does not represent a democratic deficit – as the terms of the Irish constitution require a referendum every time it is proposed to give more power to the EU.

    Thought I had read somewhere that FG was pushing to have the option of requiring a referendum on EU matters reviewed by the constitutional convention? So maybe there is no democratic deficit yet…..

    Reply
  • I think the truth of this matter is bitterly disappointing: Irish politicians simply are not comfortable with holding responsibility and power. They want the money and perks but none of the responsibilities. By handing off more and more responsibility to Europe, they are essentially setting themselves up as the middle managers of the Irish economy.

    Reply
  • The political elite embrace further yielding of sovereignty while the public are reluctant.
    The political elite bailout banks and bondholders against the wishes of voters and taxpayers.
    Hence, the fallacy of representative democracy.

    Reply
    • That is representative democracy. Under our system we are supposed to elect politicians to represent our interests, not our views.

      The alternative is a system of elected delegates who do as we tell them. Problem with that is, who does the telling?

      Reply
    • The electorate does the telling.
      http://www.directdemocracy.ie/

      Reply
    • Sorry, but didn’t Ireland have a referendum where the fast majority gave the government a hubs up to continue the selling out of sovereignty? Or are memories that short here?

      Reply
    • As is stated in the last two paragraphs there was a referendum. An no matter what policy is adopted on whatever issue there will always be groupings against it.

      Reply
    • The Irish public had no say regarding the disasterous blanket guarantee and 100% bailout of bondholders including unsecured bondholders. This would not have been possible under direct democracy.
      The government succeeded in terrifying it’s own citizens into ratifying the fiscal surrender treaty with treats of all sorts of bogeymen.
      Under representative democracy, Irish politicans have succeeded in protecting the interests of insolvent banks and Germanys taxpayers. Under direct democracy they would be left in no doubt as to who it is that’s paying their salaries.
      “When government fear the people you have liberty. When people fear government you have tyranny.”

      Reply
  • They are more interested in serving themselves & the EU,Bondholders & Bankers, than the people of this country…!!!

    Government of the people, by the people, for the people
    Should be
    Government of self serving TD’s, by the people, for the EU/Bankers/Developers/Bondholders

    They support EU integration due their own self serving agendas, large pensions, salaries, perks etc. Then when voted out of office, they want to look to get a position on the EU gravy train, money for jam…!!!

    Reply
    • zebedee 13/08/12 #

      Fully agree. Look at the last bunch of self serving s**ts who ran this country into the ground. Hadn’t got the balls to even face the electorate and ran for the hills with big fat pensions. Don’t get me started on the Flynn dynasty and European politics!

      Reply
    • PeeedOff I could not have put that any better!
      Well said!!!

      Reply
    • where has my comment gone ,

      Reply
    • @Maureen – Our system doesn’t have any logged from you…

      Reply
    • Ha , highly educated middle class elite my ass ,now that is something i find very insulting to most Irish people , but then again they are the very people that has kept Irish people down over the years how naffing dare they , educated pick pockets more like , you only have to look at some of the back rounds of most of these guys that are there on the backs of there daddy’s and pull , omg , they think that we are stupid the dog in the street know what they are none of them has balls and as for there lady td’s they are no better its money for old rope to them , keep feeding us the same old crap lol. not very clever are they , it would only take one day to let them know how we feel but the migratory of the Irish people don’t have the balls to do that and that is the way these guys like it , its a case of the carrot and the donkey give a little and take a lot .

      Oh what a great little country we live in , there should be a welcoming party for these guys when they come back from there holidays,just to show them how we feel that we haven’t gone away .

      Reply
    • Maureen there is a huge difference between highly educated and highly intelligent. And anyone who has the misfortune to see most of our TDs on TV will quickly realise that our lot may have been sent to the best schools by Mummy and Daddy but they are as thick as planks.

      Reply
    • Well why don’t ye actually run for election yourselves rather than just moaning about it? Commenting on this website, while however good for getting things off your chest, won’t make any difference. If the situation offends and frustrates you so much then run to change it. Stephen Donnelly did in Wicklow and he always gets great feedback on this site despite being a well educated white male. And we are one of the best countries in Western Europe for electing independents so start preparing your campaigns. Can’t wait to see you all elected in 2014 (locals) or 2016 (national) or both depending on your manifesto.

      Reply
    • Damocles 13/08/12 #

      Ryan, You’re right. This country needs more people like Stephen, unfortunately it doesn’t seem to be what it gets.

      Reply
  • Of course they are. All parties have the EU scape goat. We have to cut dole, EU told us, we have to increase taxes , EU told us…. Ye get the point. Wonder what their reaction would be if EU said politicians wages have to be cut?

    Reply
  • No sh*t Sherlock! They’d sell their own mothers for the New World Order. They already sold ours…

    Reply
  • what would happen, If we forced a referrendum on our future in Europe?

    Reply
    • Oh c’mon. You know the answer to that. We will continue to hold referendum after referendum until we reach the right answer.

      Reply
    • I’m liking that idea. A European wide referendum

      IN
      or
      OUT

      I bet the results would be shocking!

      Reply
    • How would you suggest ‘forcing’ a referendum?

      Reply
    • If you look at the two instances where there were No votes, the turnout was much lower. There was an assumption that the Treaty would pass and so those likely to vote Yes didn’t turn out. In the subsequent re runs the turnout was much higher, both were well over 50% if I remember rightly.

      If all the instances (bar the original 1970s ratification referendum) when there were Yes votes are examined, there is roughly one third of the population who always vote no i.e. against further Integration.

      In a yes/no or in/out situation, in my opinion there would be a similar two thirds yes, one third no vote.

      Reply
  • Damocles 13/08/12 #

    “realistically opting out of the EU would be disastrous for Ireland in the short-term.”

    And in the long term? What if the UK decided to do the same?

    Reply
  • The trouble is that money likes power, and power likes politics, and when they get together they have a baby called corruption, that then eventually kills of the runt of the litter, democracy. Do we really want a society run by accountants? Of course, that hasn’t hurt our health service at all, has it?

    Reply
  • And doctors, nurses and other health professionals will be more concerned about effective disinfection than the general public. we rate as important the things that are directly in front of us in the day-to-day, and realistically opting out of the EU would be disastrous for Ireland in the short-term. Apart from the few opportunists, opting out means reduced job security for TDs.

    Reply
  • That’s easily explainable

    The average TD is of a higher social Class (A) that the spectrum of voters in the electorate (ABC12DE) and a higher IQ as well I’d imagine.

    If you compared TDs to the members of the population of the similar Intelligence and social class… I’d imagine that statement would be reversed.

    Reply

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