THE EU’S CLIMATE monitor has said that 2024 is “increasingly likely” to be the warmest year on record after analysis of last month’s temperatures spiked concerns that no progress was made.

July was the second-warmest month on record, only behind July 2023, according to the most recent report by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, with an average global temperature of 16.91 degrees Celsius.

It is 0.68 degrees higher than all average temperatures recorded in July between 1991 – 2020. In Europe, the records were much worse as average temperatures were almost 1.5 degrees above the 1991-2020 averages for July.

Southern Europe baked in a heatwave last month, with some tourists describing conditions as “hellishly hot” in Italy, where temperatures reached well-over 30 degrees. Health ministries in 12 Italian cities issued red temperature warnings during the period.

Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said: “The streak of record-breaking months has come to an end, but only by a whisker.”

She added that, though July 2024 broke the streak, the month did see the two hottest days on record, meaning that the “overall context hasn’t changed.”

“The devastating effects of climate change started well before 2023 and will continue until global greenhouse gas emissions reach net-zero,” Burgess said.

It is this fact that makes the Copernicus experts concerned that 2024 is “increasingly likely” to be the warmest year on record, as the year-to-date average temperature is already well over last year’s records.

According to their report, the EU’s monitor says that the January–July global temperature anomaly for 2024 is 0.70°C above the 1991-2020 average, which is already 0.27°C warmer than the same period in 2023. 

This has “rarely happened” according to the scientists.