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THE EU’S CLIMATE monitor has said that 2024 is “increasingly likely” to be the warmest year on record after analysis of last month’s temperatures spiked concerns that no progress was made.
July was the second-warmest month on record, only behind July 2023, according to the most recent report by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, with an average global temperature of 16.91 degrees Celsius.
It is 0.68 degrees higher than all average temperatures recorded in July between 1991 – 2020. In Europe, the records were much worse as average temperatures were almost 1.5 degrees above the 1991-2020 averages for July.
Southern Europe baked in a heatwave last month, with some tourists describing conditions as “hellishly hot” in Italy, where temperatures reached well-over 30 degrees. Health ministries in 12 Italian cities issued red temperature warnings during the period.
Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said: “The streak of record-breaking months has come to an end, but only by a whisker.”
She added that, though July 2024 broke the streak, the month did see the two hottest days on record, meaning that the “overall context hasn’t changed.”
“The devastating effects of climate change started well before 2023 and will continue until global greenhouse gas emissions reach net-zero,” Burgess said.
It is this fact that makes the Copernicus experts concerned that 2024 is “increasingly likely” to be the warmest year on record, as the year-to-date average temperature is already well over last year’s records.
According to their report, the EU’s monitor says that the January–July global temperature anomaly for 2024 is 0.70°C above the 1991-2020 average, which is already 0.27°C warmer than the same period in 2023.
This has “rarely happened” according to the scientists.
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Definitely not in ireland. Probably wettest.
@Colin Keogh: Part of climate change (breakdown) is that jet streams around the world are getting stuck in the same pattern, rather than oscillating like usual – for much of this summer, the jet stream over northern Europe has been stuck below Ireland, exposing us to long periods of cooler/wet weather from the north (Iceland/Greenland), rather than interspersing it with warmer/dry stuff from the south (continental Europe). Changing jet stream patterns are screwing up the weather all over the world.
@Colin Keogh: That is a possible result of Global Warming for us.
The extra heat might cause greater evaporation from the Atlantic, and that might deposit lots more water on us, particularly in summer.
Still, we might be able to switch from potatoes to rice (Paddy Fields?).
Winters?
I dread to think what might happen if the Gulf Stream (AMOC) weakens a lot or shuts down.
We’d have very harsh winters if that happened.
And the Gulf Stream has already measurably weakened.
@jak: You’re weird.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: I don’t mind our weather and temperatures. It would be nice though to get sunshine and blue skies, this year the cloud cover seems to break for 3-4 days per month only inland
@Athena: Horrible for solar energy too.
@Colin Keogh: ? Seriously!
It’s been warm here all summer
@Colin Keogh: You really don’t know how our planet’s atmosphere works, do you? It’s made of layers of gas mixtures, CO2 being one of them. CO2 is too dense to completely go to space, some of it do, but that’s what keeps our planet insulated. The more manmade CO2 we pour into it, the thicker the layer and the hottest it gets. in Ireland’s case, because we’re a northern island, it results in more rain because of more condensation forming clouds, combine that with the jetstreams area that we’re located resulting in warmer temperatures colliding with colder temperatures between our ground and the skies resulting in wind. We’re just unlucky, so if you expect Ireland to be the next Costa del Sol as a result of climate change you’re wrong, we will be known as Costa del Forever Stormy Rain. Sweden may be luckier, but not us.
@Stephen Wallis: Jeez don’t you love all the alarmist rhetoric. Ireland for years has been in a pattern of one good summer followed by a few bad, we never have consistently good summers and the jet stream has always been there. When the weather is good it’s climate change, when the weather is bad it’s climate change. It’s just fckin weather.
Destroying yourself in 100k debt to retrofit your house ain’t saving no planet when China and USA give us all the finger and continue to do what they want. Just remember that when Eamon Ryan is on a media rant.
@Dan The Man: China now produces more energy from renewables than from fossil fuel sources (wind solar hydro). The rate that have proceeded with green energy transition is astounding, they added more solar and wind farms to their grid than the rest of the planet combined. It is a lesson to us that we should follow.
China’s wind, solar capacity forecast to overtake coal in 2024:
The China Electricity Council (CEC) in a yearly report said grid-connected wind and solar would make up around 40% of installed power generation capacity by the end of 2024, compared with coal’s expected 37%. By comparison, wind and solar together were around 36% of capacity at the end of 2023, and coal was just under 40%.
China will have built around 1,300 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar capacity by the end of 2024, the CEC expects, meaning it will have already exceeded its official target of 1,200 GW by 2030.
The CEC also said that generating capacity from all non-fossil fuel sources – including nuclear and hydro – made up more than half of the total for the first time in 2023.
@Dan The Man: The Biden Admin is investing vast sums in kickstarting US RE production and installation.
But that will be killed off in the Trumpists or other Republicans take power.
@Dan The Man: China has more electric cars in production than anywhere in the world, the Americans are massively put out because the Chinese are making them to a high standard at a fraction of the cost (don’t worry our government is working hard to make sure that Irish people still pay over the odds) Also they’ve done more than any other country in the green space, why? Because the don’t say ‘no’ at every step in the process, because they have vision, understand the logistics (and because they’re communists I suppose) We (in Ireland) have yet to understand the value of worth, so terms like vision, design, etc. Are all posh words… We’re very much still picking fleas off each other
@Thesaltyurchin: The Chinese have developed a vehicle battery than can be fully charged in 10 minutes. It’s planned to be rolling off the production lines next year.
But I wouldn’t call the Chinese communists. They are far from that, with many, many billionaires as an example.
Authoritarian government, yes.
Communists, no.
Why are comments closed on the article that vulture funds now own 1 in 5 rentals in Dublin? Nothing to do with people pointing out that they’re destroying the rental market and keeping rents extortionately high?
@Patrick Kennedy: We need a political party that will develop a plan to get these absentee landlords out.
Even if it will harm the pockets of the Michael Noonans of this world.
Where are you Sinn Fein?
Where are you Social Democrats?
To think that FFG have brought us back to where we were under the Brits, tenants in our own country.
@Patrick Kennedy: The brits very much considering the ‘Canadian’ model for their pensions. Wonder should we be doing the same! I mean the global market really only works for vulture funds and coorporations.
Yawn ..tax the hot countries so.. We’re grand here
@Finian McG: That’s a fair point – we definitely won’t want any additional taxes when floods and droughts cause crop failures around the world, and the price of food sky-rockets, not to mention how, within our children’s lifetimes, cooler countries like Ireland will become attractive to climate refugees (from within the EU), leaving uninhabitable heat and fresh water shortages. We won’t have the same issues as other places, but we will definitely have issues.
@jak: can’t argue a point, call someone a childish name – got it.
@Stephen Wallis: No escaping change, but it’s a point, even before considering it a public level. Like imagine the air conditioning costs? heating your home in winter, cooling it through the rest of the year. Mad.
Global warming promised so much and delivered so little..
@Gerry Dornan: Global Warming promised Climate Change.
And is delivering.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: Climate change was always happening. It’s an unstoppable force of nature. Our species actions on this planet did not start climate change and it will not stop climate change. We did however speed it up and all we can hope to do is to slow it back down.
@Ger Whelan: was thinking you were of the Healy-Rae type until I read your last sentence. And you’re spot on from start to finish.
It took us 200 years to do what would take well over a millennium if nature had not been forced.
@Jerry LeFrog: As we have increased atmospheric CO2 to a level not seen in the last 1,000,000 years, you would be more accurate to say that it took us 200 years to do what would take more than a 1,000,000 years if nature had not been forced.
Here’s the last 1,000 years
https://co2levels.org/atmospheric_co2_graph.php
And the last 800,000 years
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-long-term-concentration
You can see that atmospheric CO2 was naturally varying from around 200ppm to 250ppm.
Until we came along burning up vast amounts of fossil fuels.
Remember as the sun gets older it gets hotter, and I can remember what it’s called but also one of the weather patterns is moving which it always has , has big effects on our weather here, as it brings more unsettled weather.
Then we governments messing about with cloud seeding, which every time happens we usually have unsettled weather here like June after Dubai
@Be Lucky: “Remember as the sun gets older it gets hotter” – yeah, it will when it’s going to burn out – in around 5 billion years! – it’s got nothing to do with anything that will happen this century. Also, it’s not cloud seeding, it’s climate change/breakdown – more energy (heat) in the atmosphere means more evaporation, more moisture in the atmosphere, and more frequent (and bigger) rainstorms/flooding (in more random places, such as Dubai and Australia).
@Be Lucky: There is as much evidence that cloud seeding works as there is for the rain dance.
People can be ruled by fear and hysteria rather than inspired by what makes life on Earth possible through the three major Earth sciences: climate, geology, and biology.
Why do people choose to believe that controlling human behaviour equates to controlling weather/temperature, with a bias towards a particular lifestyle of travelling less and eating differently? This belief is ideological and a clear signature of a subculture.
The toxic circle in which the taxpayer funds academics to generate hysteria, which filters down into political circles as more taxes and dictates to society, should not be that difficult to break. The Earth on fire goes out when funding dries up, but the focus has to shift to scientific method modelling as the underlying problem afflicting society.
@Gerald Kelleher: Our climate is changing. I don’t need any think tank or experts to tell me that, I just need my own experience and common sense. Whether that change is caused by humans or not is the only issue for me but it seems unreasonable to assume that we can treat our planet like a septic tank and not expect consequences.
@jak: No Jak, albeit I would modify ‘This belief is ideological and a clear signature of a subculture.’ to ‘ a clear signature of an agenda.’
@Gerald Kelleher: If you urinate and defecate into your water supply then that water supply will become contaminated.
And make you – and others – ill.
If you spew pollutants into the atmosphere – the air you breath – then that will affect your health, and reduce your life span. And that of others.
Human activity can make the planet much less habitable, more unpleasant, for us and other species.
Humans can – and have – affected this planet we live on for the worse.
Over the past million years or so atmospheric CO2 had been varying in a natural cycle from about 200ppm to about 250ppm, resulting in natural swings in climate.
We humans are not responsible for that.
But in the last 200 years we humans have increased atmospheric CO2 to over 400ppm, an increase of about 50%.
An enormous increase and change to a system that was in balance.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-long-term-concentration
*WE* are responsible for that sudden increase of 50%.
And the Global Warming that will result from that extra 50%.
Warming that would NOT have happened except for US.
*WE* are responsible for the Climate Changes that will result from that HUMAN CAUSED Global Warming.
Climate Changes that would NOT have happened except for US.
@Marie:
The scientific method subculture went mainstream after Isaac Newton, but before, it existed as a fringe presence in research. Commenters here have little sense of Galileo’s statement regarding the subculture and they pay dearly for that.
“I know; such men do not deduce their conclusion from its premises or establish it by reason, but they accommodate (I should have said distort) the premises and reasons to a conclusion which for them is already established and nailed down. No good can come of dealing with such people, especially to the extent that their company may be not only unpleasant but dangerous.” Galileo
Newton attempted to make an experimental hypothesis the same as an astronomical hypothesis and an experimental prediction the same as an astronomical prediction.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: you need to read some research that’s outside the pap that mainstream media pumps out for headlines. For instance: South Pacific atolls are growing not sinking. Great barrier reef record size 2024. Sea levels have been rising for last 12,000 years and will continue to during the inter glacial period. Tonga volcano eruption in 2021-2022 boiled of enough seawater to increase atmospheric water vapor by 8-10% , water vapour is the biggest greenhouse gas by a huge margin. Its also a el Nino/La Nina tradition period which tends to screw up weather. Sun is near its solar maximum which can effect upper atmospheric conditions due to increased solar radiation. I suggest you watch Sabine Hoffenfellers latest video on climate temperature models which she shows are dodgy.
@gregory pym: You can’t even make one post without contradicting yourself, can you?
If sea levels have been rising for the last 12,000 years and will continue to then how are these Pacific Atolls gaining ground?
You lot are just weird.
@Gerald Kelleher: So nothing to do with people wanting to keep drilling cause they’ve been making billions from it for 100′s of years? Or how the media needs ‘content’ to exist how politics is a reflection of individual ego… I mean I know it’s your specialist subject but there are a lot a variables you gloss over to belittle the person sat in front of a microscope. Do you not believe in cause and effect or relativity? Like the bigger a thing is the more space around it is effected? or no?
Very cold here yesterday but the government are going to increase the fuel allowance eligibility( ffg vote catching policy) but unfortunately I dont think I will qualify and I definitely cant afford £70k for Eamos retrofit.
I think I left the iron on.
Well I haven’t seen a good day yet,saying that I’m in Donegal so I don’t expect much
The reason we have had two brutal summers is due to clouds. Most climate models can’t predict clouds and they aren’t included. We don’t know how clouds work. Ie we have only recently found that light alone is enough to vaporize water. We don’t need heat.
Plus all thermometer reading in cities have inflated values due to cities generating and retaining heat due do to all the concrete. Satellite readings and data are far more accurate. The science here is skeptical at best.
@Washpenrebel: There are at least two flaws in your comment, Washpenrebel.
1) We have long know that all energy ends up at heat. So we have long known that light alone can vapourise water.
As can kinetic energy.
And any and every other form of energy.
2) Do you really thing that the engineers and scientists have not been compensating for such things that would cause anomalies in temperature readings?
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: on point 1. MIT have just learned this. Did you know something they didn’t know? https://news.mit.edu/2024/how-light-can-vaporize-water-without-heat-0423
On point 2. Scientist do not adjust for this. Ie we still use data from Kilkenny castle, Phoenix park, Greenwich in London. These are all in the middle of cities. They used to be outside but not any more. Like I said the solution is to use satellites but the numbers come in lower so they aren’t used. If we get a hot day in ireland I bet you Kilkenny castle thermometer will be red hot and the information spread all over the news.
@Washpenrebel: Really?
Don’t you remember your Science lessons at school?
What does all energy end up as?
And what happens to electrons in an orbit when photons of energy are absorbed?
And what happens to the vibrations of atoms are they absorb energy?
This is basic level science, Washpenrebel.
@Washpenrebel: Oh, and it’s very easy to find out that scientists *do* compensate for temperature anomalies.
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/climate-change/the-raw-truth-on-global-temperature-records/
How did you come to this ridiculous belief?
Just where are you getting your information, and belief systems?
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: are you seriously telling me that you learned something in school that world famous MIT scientists have only just proven this year.
I listen to many scientists. I watch the lectures that they do and I also watch debates where two scientists one pro and one anti make their cases. Next time you hear the temperature from Kilkenny castle make sure you drop it a bit to the real temperature of the county.
@Washpenrebel: Are you seriously telling us that you do not know that all energy degenerates to heat?
Are you seriously telling us that you are unaware of what happens atoms when photons of energy are absorbed?
And are you now trying to pretend that *you* believe scientists, when you have spend all your time denying them?
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: I am talking about light. Not heat. Using just light to vaporize water. Scientists didn’t know it was possible. You didn’t know it till i told you and showed you the study.
I never said I didn’t trust scientists. If a scientist believes he’s right he should have no problem proving it in a debate. I listen to all sides. The problem today is politicians want us to believe them and what they are saying is true. Al Gore for example. Ye many people here believe what he said to be true. It’s good to ask questions and find out more than the narrative we are being sold. Ie it’s completely nonsense that 97% of scientists believe climate change is ending the planet. It’s was study and a question taken out of context and used to push a political perspective. I don’t believe in behaving like a sheep. Unlike some people.
I am happy with our climate in Ireland despite the dreadful summer.
Experimental theorists abandoned terms like maritime climate, tropical climate, continental climate and all those different climates across latitudes to attach terms after ‘climate’ such as climate change, climate action, climate justice, climate neutrality, etc.
The idea that conditions in a garden greenhouse scale up to the Earth’s atmosphere is an extension that the attraction of an apple to the Earth scales up to the attraction of the Earth to the Sun (Rule III).
Do commenters want to be part of a subculture?
@jak: are they the new potatoes?
@Gerald Kelleher: Everyone is part of a subculture. Including you.
Who ever made those statements needs a week here
Debated putting the heat on yesterday eve…in Aug…wrapped up instead..
Yep, such a hot summer…
Increasingly likely we will have the most miserable weather.
@Mary.E.: I was in Hungary last month during a heatwave. 38 degrees.
Believe me, we do not have miserable weather.
@Bert Carolan:
Do I need to convince you that no matter how many cars disappear from the roads and cows disappear from the fields, no matter what taxes are levied or dictates politicians demand, Ireland will still have a maritime climate as it sits in the Atlantic Ocean?
For sure, experimental theorists have managed to convince society for a short while that climate is long-term weather; however, long-term weather is cyclical and is taken up by the seasons.
Attaching terms after ‘climate’ like change, action, justice, and neutrality is ideological and not practical. It is a symptom of an underlying subculture rooted in 17th-century Royal Society.
@Gerald Kelleher: Did you have to be held back in school Gerald?
@Gerald Kelleher: You clearly fancy yourself a scientist of some kind GK, come on, show us your credentials. Do you have a science degree? A degree in climate science? Masters? Phd? Or are you self-taught?
:
All scientific method modelling began with Newton’s clockwork solar system model, which used a framework called RA/Dec in opposition to the 24-hour and Latitude/Longitude frameworks.
” It is a fact that, owing to the difference between solar and sidereal time, the Earth rotates upon its axis once more often than there are 24-hour days in the year” NASA.
https://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1904PA…..12..649B
The Earth turns once every 24 hours and a thousand times every thousand 24-hour days through known principles of timekeeping where AM and PM are anchored to natural noon.
Credentials? anyone who can manage to associate one sunrise/noon/sunset every 24 hours with one rotation is far more qualified to speak about climate than all the doctorates who refuse to accept the fact.
Ireland, the place climate change forgot.
Not here being a poor summer
Not in Leitrim it isn’t, it’s been wet since the beginning of June and the temperature has barely hit 20°.
Toy dinosaurs are made from oil, which was formed by the original dinosaurs… until next time friends!
In Zaragoza yesterday, stepped off the train at 6.30 pm, felt like walking into a sauna. 37 degrees at 6.30 in the evening. And that’s northern Spain which is relatively close to ireland geographically.
You could clearly see Global warming in Ireland where in August you are having low temperature and some people are turning heating on as it’s colder than it was even last year…
I’m not saying there is no warming at all, but this is due to building bicycle lanes in towns where previously were trees. We need to plan more green spaces and not destroying them, so the global warming will stop moving forward on it’s own. I know also that this way won’t generate additional money for government…
To the author, go garher all temp data, filter and remove weather monitoring stations in urban areas particularly the airports, watch this whole narrative dissolve in front of your eyes. The data is there, you just have to know how to use, as most of these social scientists are using it to engineer society on falsehoods.
@Tom L: Why ask the author to do that?
Why don’t you do it yourself, and show us all?
I demonstrate the distinction between innovative sciences in engineering and medical sciences at a human level from scientific method modelling, which attempts to extend experiments to a solar system or Earth science scale. The conditions in a garden greenhouse (experiment) do not scale up to the Earth’s atmosphere (universal qualities) as a symptom of that subculture.
“Rule III. The qualities of bodies that are found to belong to all bodies within the reach of our experiments are to be esteemed as the universal qualities of all bodies whatsoever.” Isaac Newton
Ironically, they attached the name Copernicus to climate when Newton vandalised the main argument for the Earth’s orbital motion, which is now easily explained with a visual narrative.
Copernicus was the first person to account for the slower-moving outer planets from the Sun, like Saturn and Jupiter, through the faster orbital motion of the Earth overtaking them.
apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap011220.html
As the Earth catches up to Jupiter, the planet appears to stop and go backwards (retrograde motion) before going forward (direct motion) again.
The scientific method modellers vandalised this insight.
“For to the Earth, planetary motions appear sometimes direct, sometimes
stationary, nay, and sometimes retrograde. But from the Sun, they are
always seen direct,…” Newton
When an experimental theorist like Newton is permitted to vandalise the main argument for a Sun-centred system, then say goodbye to astronomy and Earth sciences.
@Gerald Kelleher:
Newton’s stupid view of direct/retrograde motions involving a hypothetical observer on the Sun kicked off the worthless definitions of absolute/relative space and motion, which descended into the muck of early 20th century relativity.
So, people became slaves to a subculture, beginning with a timekeeping misadventure and vandalism to heliocentric astronomy. I couldn’t live with that horrible attack on astronomy, yet others can.
They say the same thing every year!
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