A €5 BILLION ‘black hole’ has been uncovered in Fine Gael’s spending plan in the party’s manifesto. 

The figure is contained in the section of the manifesto which looks at how much Fine Gael would spend over the next five years. 

It shows that the party has not allocated enough money to cover its new spending commitments as well as what is estimated to be needed to maintain the existing level of services. 

The discovery is an uncomfortable one for the government party, which puts responsible management of the public finances at the centre of its pitch to voters. 

“Fine Gael’s figures are sound,” a spokesperson for the party said on Saturday night. 

The ‘black hole’ came to light after Trinity economics professor Dr Barra Roantree wrote a piece for his Substack on Thursday evening about the three main parties’ spending plans. This piece was subsequently published on The Journal on Friday morning.

Fine Gael contacted Dr Roantree after the piece was published to clarify some of the information in it – inadvertently revealing in the clarification the existence of the ‘black hole’. 

Roantree had contacted Fine Gael before the initial piece was finished but the party had not responded. 

The ‘black hole’ is in the party’s plan for current – or day-to-day – voted expenditure between now and 2030.

This is a huge figure which is made up of central government department spending and is approved by a vote of the Dáil each year. Roantree notes that this figure is not a comprehensive one for government spending – it doesn’t include most social welfare expenditure, for example – but it is the best figure available. 

“It is the only aggregate measure of spending each of the three largest parties have provided information on,” he said. 

Fine Gael says current voted spending will increase by €26.4 billion under a FG government.

However this leaves a gap of €5.5 billion when the party’s new spending commitments (€9.3 billion) are added to what the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) says is needed to maintain the existing level of services (€22.6 billion), giving a total of €31.9 billion – significantly more than the €26.4 billion FG has suggested. 

“Fine Gael have instead referenced a figure of €15.5 billion for the cost of maintaining the existing level of services alongside €1.7 billion in an unspecified contingency,” Roantree said. 

“This simply isn’t credible. We have an independent Fiscal Advisory Council who have clearly and transparently calculated the cost of maintaining the existing level of services. Instead Fine Gael choose to use a figure based on their own – unpublished – workings that is more than €5 billion per year lower.”

Fine Gael insisted that the party’s figures were solid, but did not say why it had avoided using the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council’s calculations for how much money would be needed in the coming years. 

“We have provided a sufficient amount of money for public services in the years ahead, based on what was required over the last number of years,” a spokesperson said in a statement. 

It noted that the party had made provision for a public sector pay deal, almost €2 billion in contingency funding for unforseen events, and funding for both of the sovereign wealth funds that were set up in recent Budgets. 

Roantree’s research also found significant – albeit smaller – gaps in Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin’s spending plans. 

He notes that both parties have pencilled in €20 billion per year by 2030 for maintaining existing services, which is significantly less – €2.5 billion per year – than what the IFAC has said will be needed. 

“This raises serious questions for the three major parties about the credibility of their spending plans as we enter into very uncharted waters,” Roantree said, suggesting that party manifestos need to be objectively costed and tested.