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LAST UPDATE | 20 Nov 2020
HAVE WE STALLED?
Much of this week’s discussion on Covid-19 concerns a rise in case numbers since last Friday, speculation about what our lives will look like post-Level 5 and what type of Christmas lies ahead.
But what does the latest Covid-19 data tell us about our efforts to suppress the virus?
Health officials on Thursday evening confirmed a further 429 cases of Covid-19 and four more deaths.
A total of 379 new cases were confirmed on Wednesday and 366 new cases were confirmed on Tuesday.
That is a total of 1,174 cases compared to 1,027 cases over the same period last week and 1,357 cases the week previously.
Ireland’s reproductive number last week was estimated at 0.6 having been between 0.7 and 0.9 the previous week. It has risen again this week and is back between 0.7 and 0.9.
This is not the downward trend we had been expecting.
Ireland’s national incidence rate is 116.5 cases per 100,000 of the population on a 14-day rolling average, according to data from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre – compared to 135.5 on this day last week and 212.7 the week previous. That is a 45% drop in the past 14 days.
However, the incidence rate had dropped by more than 50% between 30 October and 13 November, a further indication that Ireland’s rate of decline has slowed over the past seven days.
Chair of NPHET’s Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group Professor Philip Nolan told TheJournal.ie that “we have made huge progress” since 22 October.
“We’ve come down from a daily average case count of 1,200 cases a day to 400 cases a day. We’re doing very well compared to European nations in general,” he said.
“So that’s the good news. But what we have to point to is that this very rapid decline in case counts has now stalled. We’re now stuck at 400 a day and we’ve been stuck at 400 a day for a week.”
Looking at the incidence rate in individual counties, these spiked in October, then started reducing, and had reduced even further in the 14 days up to last Friday morning.
However, HPSC data shows that the 14-day incidence rate in a number of counties is rising.
Donegal, the county with the highest incidence rate in the country, continues to give health officials cause for concern.
The county’s 14-day incidence rate is currently 264.5 cases per 100,000 – a slight decrease of 6% from 281.4 cases per 100,000 last week.
Limerick is second-highest in Ireland with a 14-day incidence rate of 221.7 cases per 100,000 – compared to 197.5 cases last Thursday – an increase of 12% in one week.
Waterford has had a significant spike in its 14-day incidence rate, rising from 115.3 last Thursday to 154.9. That is a 25% increase.
Analysing mobility data and close contacts data, Professor Nolan says health officials have concluded that people’s movements reduced massively from 22 October, through the mid-term break resulting in a “huge drop-off in detected attendances in workplaces”.
The number of close contacts also began to decline, but this has since risen back up to an average of 3 or more having been below 3 in late October. “We can literally see it happening at the end of the mid-term break. And it’s not the fact that kids are back at schools, it’s the fact that adults are leaving the home more,” said Nolan.
This change is marginal, however, said Nolan. “So a little bit of extra effort over the next two to three weeks to reduce our contacts will have us back on the right road again.”
Counties with the lowest incidence rates include Wexford (37.4), Wicklow (56.9) and Galway (70.9), all of which have seen a reduction in 14-day incidence rates of between 7% and 20% over the last seven days.
Cavan, which had the highest incidence rate at the start of Level 5, now has an estimated 14-day average of 90.6 cases per 100,000, according to the Department of Health.
It was 118.1 last week and stood at 364.9 cases per 100,000 last Thursday.
That’s a significant decrease of 75% over a fortnight. In total, Cavan’s 14-day incidence rate has reduced by more than 90% since Level 5 restrictions came into effect.
By comparison to Europe, Ireland’s 14-day incidence rate is lower than France (778.7), Spain (513.3), the United Kingdom (497.1) and Italy (798.5), according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).
The above countries, including Ireland, are still considerably lower than both Austria, which has a 14-day incidence rate of 1083.7 and Luxembourg, which has a 14-day incidence rate of 1195.2 per 100,000.
Testing & Tracing
Approximately 116,000 tests were carried out over the 7 days up to Thursday 22 October when Ireland entered Level 5. The positivity rate then was 6.9%.
Approximately 103,000 tests were carried out in the 7 days up to 29 October with 88,547 tests have been carried in the seven days up to last Thursday.
Last week, approximately 77,718 tests have been carried out up to 11 November. This week, approximately 77,292 tests have been carried in the last seven days.
The positivity rate last week was estimated at 3.5% – a decrease from 4.6% the week previous.
A further indication that Covid-19′s suppression has stalled this week, Ireland’s positivity has risen again, to 3.8%.
Hospital & ICU
There have been 18 hospital admissions in the last 24 hours and 25 discharges.
There are – as of this morning – 290 confirmed Covid-19 cases in hospitals and 32 people in Intensive Care Units.
Last Thursday, there were 275 hospitalised cases of Covid-19 and 38 people in ICU.
As seen in the graph below, ICU cases peaked between Saturday 1 and Monday 3, fell back down to the lowest point since 28 October on 4 October, rose again last week but have since declined.
Clusters
So where are people contracting Covid-19?
In terms of clusters and outbreaks, Professor Nolan says Public Health teams are currently seeing small outbreaks in a variety of workplace settings.
“People are picking it up in the community in ways that we can’t detect. They’re picking it up at small, private social gatherings, be that a family get-together or a funeral. People find it very hard not to socialise, particularly if it’s a major life event.
“But we’re also seeing it in workplaces, that’s a significant factor, and hospital outbreaks which we need to very careful about,” said Nolan.
The recent increase of outbreaks in schools has reduced again since last week, data shows.
There were 10 outbreaks reported by the HPSC up to Saturday. There were 24 outbreaks reported in the 7 days beforehand and 30 outbreaks reported in the seven days before that.
The HPSC notes, however: “These outbreaks are outbreaks associated with school children +/or school staff. Transmission of Covid-19 within the school has not necessarily been established in these outbreaks.”
The total number of outbreaks since the start of the pandemic is 8,311. Of these, 4,992 remain “open” according to the HPSC’s recent data.
For an outbreak to be considered “closed”, there must be 28 days from the last case diagnosed or becoming symptomatic.
There were 954 new outbreaks in private homes up to last Saturday – a increase of 511 or 53% – from the previous week bringing to 6,228 the total number of outbreaks in this setting since the pandemic reached Ireland.
Of these, 4,210 remain open.
Finally, there have been 6 new outbreaks in nursing homes – 48 outbreaks in nursing homes remain “open”.
In the seven days up to last Thursday, there had been an overall increase of 16% in outbreaks across all settings.
Overall, taking in every setting this week, outbreaks have increased by 45% since last week.
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Level 3 worked once all 26 counties were in it. Level 5 hasn’t had much effect so the closure of shops and restaurants wasn’t worthwhile.
@Anna Anna: it definitely tells people have lot faith in the government and the recommendations of nphet
@ed w: More the pity. A lot of people have behaved like sheep, not using their brain during this pandemic, following the government advice blindly without question. Reminds me of a certain country during the 2nd world war!
@Anna Anna: To be honest level 5 has so many opt out clauses that it has had little impact. Compare traffic levels with previous lockdown. Go to supermarket there is hardly any restriction on numbers.
Basic problem with any of the levels is lack of enforcement / collective will to adhere. 70 – 80% compliance is not enough
I’d prefer two weeks of solid lockdown to give us breathing space for the following two months than this drip feed of compliance that means we’ll go through Christmas with high numbers and an explosion in early January.
@Carol Cunningham: can you elaborate? I contend people haven’t followed advice enough.
@Carol Cunningham: ha ha. So obeying medical advice is the same as “a certain country during the 2nd world war”. The inference is we’re all ok to invade Poland and gas innocents? Muppet.
@Carol Cunningham: what else are we supposed to do except listen to medical advice? None of us have been through something like this before.
@Carol Cunningham: absolutely no comparison between your two examples. And calling people sheep…you are also a sheep, you just follow a different flock.
@Eoin Scanlon: you know what they say about the correlation of people who resort to name calling and brain size!
@Carol Cunningham: Sheep!
@Carol Cunningham: they’ll be the first to talk about the gift of hindsight in a few years time
@Carol Cunningham: Well…. people who make stu pid statements deserve ridicule. Its like comparing apples with oranges.
@Anna Anna: pubs and restaurants were closed in level three. I wonder will they open again if they were part of the measures that worked?
@Carol Cunningham: you called people sheep and then get offended when someone calls you a name. What was that about correlation again? Undermined your own point there (BAHHH)
@Anna Anna: over 2,000 have died and will have no chance of any hindsight on any of this many more will have a memory of not being permanently damaged. You’ve been one of the more duplicitous commenters here throughout. Glad you’ve finally dropped the mask. Backing up someone comparing people taking the best available medical advice to nazis is a new low for you.
@Dave O’Keeffe: https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2020/0703/1151127-virus-report/
In Ireland we counted all deaths, in all settings, suspected cases EVEN WHEN NO LAB TEST WAS DONE, and included people with underlying terminal illnesses who died with Covid but not of it – Leo Varadkar, 3rd July, Tanaiste and GP
@Anna Anna: the possible and probable (untested) portion of the deaths are 164 and 95 respectively. Meaning a total of 259 unconfirmed deaths. Unfortunately due to our lack of testing ability at the start of this there was always going to be people who died without ever receiving a test.
@NotMyIreland: where are you getting those figures?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ireland-s-official-coronavirus-death-toll-likely-to-have-been-overstated-report-finds-1.4295324
@NotMyIreland: Wasting your time. She’s knows this, but the lying by omission suits her agenda.
@Anna Anna: not true Anna and it’s very disingenuous of you to keep spreading these mad conspiracy theories. You know very well that cases counted are only those where death was either caused by Covid or was contributed to by Covid.
https://www.thejournal.ie/how-are-covid-19-probable-deaths-counted-5102540-Jul2020/?amp=1/
@Anna Anna: on the HSPC daily report, down the end it breaks the total deaths down into the three categories.
Total deaths 2009
Confirmed 1750
Possible 164
Probable 95
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/
@GrumpyAulFella: it’s not a conspiracy theory. They are following WHO guidelines for the reporting of Covid deaths. It is well known
@Anna Anna: “where are you getting those figures?”
Here’s conformed cases:
Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Ireland
“Total number of deaths among confirmed cases 1,750″
@GrumpyAulFella: as confirmed in the first minute of the Seanad Covid Committee video
https://youtu.be/4ZolPvWW8oo
@David Jordan: NotmyIreland already gave the breakdown.
@Anna Anna: why is there a breakdown then and why are there denotifications? Surely they would all just clump them into one and have no denotifications? Why are there probable and possible categories if you say that all are treated as Covid deaths full stop?
@Colleen: and the people giveing the advise have never being through anything like this either lol
@Carol Cunningham: The irony of that is sweet on two fronts. You craytur you.
It seems to me a lot of people are nearing the end of their tolerance toward this strategy of fighting the pandemic,, and that’s understandable, weather it’s right or wrong.
@Seymour business: completely agree. Fatigue has hit in big time, especially taking into account the time of year, the length of the fight so far, golf gate and multiple other examples of seemingly contradictory advice. The levels we have now should be considered the base line, and we need to learn to live alongside with this for the next six months at least. “suppressing” the virus is not a good enough target because it is entangled with mismanagement of the HSE. while we are in this lockdown how many nurses have been hired by the HSE? during the last lockdown we actually LOST nurses from the system. How many new ICU beds have been added and how many doctors employed to man these? I’d wager a guess at none.
@Adrian Hennessy: why do people need their hand held? Everyone single adult in this country can do their own lockdown all by themselves.
@Dave O’Keeffe: The example set by the Govt during all of this has been extremely poor between golfgate and the bungling after it, Hogan and Martin hopping from country to country not following their own guidelines i.e not properly self isolating after being abroad. The constant bombardment of fear inducing numbers totals from our news outlets and media without any recourse to where we stand at present. No explanation from NPHET about what they are basing their modelling data on because it has been constantly and fantastically wrong every time. The complete lack of understanding of peoples worries about their jobs keeping a home over their heads and feeding and clothing their families and the obsurd contradictory restriction guidelines is it any wonder people have had a gut full
@Dave O’Keeffe: I reckon people think they’ve done their bit, meanwhile the HSE continues to be it’s inefficient, lackadaisical self. It’s in no better shape now than 6 months ago. Still struggling to cope despite a huge drop in numbers attending A&E, normally we would be reading reports about 100s on trollies at this time. Still not protecting hospitals or nursing homes from outbreaks. Then you have the wonderful PR from NPHET who despite a huge reduction in numbers since 20 October have been focusing on the negative for 2 full weeks now and many are wondering what’s the point if there is no chance of a little more normality in the near future.
@Dave O’Keeffe: This is precisely why long-term lockdowns don’t work. This along with the social and economic disasters that go with it. I’d contend that for the most part, people don’t need their hand held, and are capable of doing the right thing without needing Gardai setting up checkpoints to remind us, and harsher and harsher restrictions to make sure we don’t stick our fingers in the electric socket, so to speak. Problem is, with the restrictions and particularly the messaging from government and NPHET, people were always on a road to lockdown fatigue.
Don’t know where we are with this but I’m sick to the b€€€€x of bitter bickering comments about teachers and schools and looking for days off and all the other s€€€e. As a primary teacher the schools closed in March under government direction. We did what we cud online etc. We went back to classes in sept with f€€k all protection, a complete unknown as far as how contagious kids are, transmission rates etc and got on with our job. Hundreds of older teachers with underlying conditions are sitting in the middle of 30 plus kids for 5 hours a day. Apologies for the rant but have seen comments and heard stuff on the radio today that wud really leave u wondering what sort of f€€ked up society we are living in. And breathe……
@Niall Gannon: @Niall Gannon: I think the kids could handle more than 5 hours in fairness
@Markonline: fair play, what research are you quoting there…ph none? Jog on…
@Niall Gannon: The secondary school teachers come into contact with about 120 kids every day too
@EMD: poor EMD, the world picking on you again. How about the schools stay open until 6 to facilitate working parents. Play games or whatever you want with them if you think they can’t handle the extra education.
@Markonline: what do the teachers who are working parents do? The ones who don’t have kids that are school age
@Markonline: a€€hole
@Markonline: a€€€€le
@Niall Gannon: I hope you aren’t an English teacher.
They are lying to us. it is the schools but that are bringing it to private house, but they will not admit this and they are hiding the information from the public to justify destroying our economy
@Carol Cunningham: why on earth would they want to destroy our economy?
@Carol Cunningham: why in earth would they want to destroy the economy?
@Muireann Quinn: Because they are not thinking about our economy, they are thinking about health matters and have no idea of how an economy works. They also forget that it is the economy that keeps the health services goings. They are not economists, they are doctors and only care about health matters. They live in a cocooned world where they do not have to worry about where the next buck comes from. Most of them do not live in the real world.
Does that answer your question?
@Carol Cunningham: So you are saying ALL doctors in NPHET do not understand the economy at all. All these medical experts seem to lack a basic understanding of how the world works, unlike you who seem to have all the answers……
@Dave Harris: ah thank you for your faith in me :)
@Carol Cunningham: in your head it might answer the question, that’s your opinion, and its carp
@Dave Harris: the NPHET members have stated many times the advice they give the government/at the press conferences is regarding public health only. It is the government’s task to place that advice in a wider context and assess how it affects the economy etc
@Anna Anna: Not a sniff of an economist (as you know): https://www.thejournal.ie/here-is-who-sits-on-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-and-what-they-do-5086703-Apr2020/
@Carol Cunningham: Oh no, Anna has a sister!!
@Anna Anna: I’d be very worried if our National Public Health Emergency Team was packed with economists given that their remit is public health and they are all experts in the field, unlike other minority anti lockdown groups. However NPHET does have CEOs and National Directors in its number so to claim that these people may be ignorant of economic matters, that keyboard economists on here aren’t, is just comical. Let the DoF worry about the economy and let NPHET and DoH worry about health.
@GrumpyAulFella: CEOs? You mean people who run state agencies such as HIQA and HSPC, not CEOs of commercial organisations… This is a question as I’ve seen no reference to this anywhere.
@Derdaly: yes I wouldn’t expect to see private company CEO’s appointed to a Public Health Emergency team but I’d expect that anyone holding that rank, public or private body, would have a broad grasp of economics and the detrimental effects of lockdowns on economies.
@Carol Cunningham: There’s a Covid-19 Oversight Group which gives Government advice on social and economic policies,that’s their job!!
NPHET gives Government advice on the latest stats including Epidemiological Modelling and public health aspects!!
There’s no conspiracy!
“We can literally see it happening at the end of the mid-term break. And it’s not the fact that kids are back at schools, it’s the fact that adults are leaving the home more,” said Nolan.
Right, so while case numbers directly correlate to school breaks, even by Nolan’s own admission (as does the data), it’s not the 1,200,000 school and university students congregating en masse every day causing it – it’s the parents.
Mmmkay…
@Dog Eat Fog: the virus spreads person to person.. My town had three secondry schools.. Every day 1500 or more head into the town for lunch.. 10 to 15 in a group, looks so surreal when everthing so quiet around. Im shur this is happening daily in every town in ireland.. Under 100 cases a day? Must be jokeing. Matt cooper said it last night, maybe if people could go for a meal, a coffee, a pint, there wouldnt be these figures in private homes.
You gotta love the way that the only analysis they seem to do on case origins is around pricing how schools aren’t the problem despite the large number of clusters and correlated increases in cases.
A handful of sports related cases? Shut all gyms, ban all sports.
A couple of retail related cases? Ban the sale of all non essential items (except offlicenses because banning booze would lead to a revolt).
Schools demonstrably being a major driver of case numbers nationwide? Further analysis needed until we find something else to blame.
@Richard King: no mention either of the rise of cases within the hospital environment, from 34 cases week ending 1st Nov to 100 cases in week to 8th. Only they know how bad it is this week.
Two more weeks o my lord its all getting so tiresome.
@Braonain Proinseas: Two more weeks until we find out if we’ll be allowed any relief or not. Its entirely possible we could be told they’re going to extend it a further two more
@Ré: I do not think it will be tolerated if they try to lock us down for another two weeks. Not because people do not want to do the right thing, but because they know that the government is not doing the right thing: blaming households and pubs etc. for what obviously is coming from the schools and simultaneously destroying our economic and the future of our children. I know a wealthy shop keeper, who is not getting over 7,000 a WEEK to sit on his behind (seemingly this is a payment for loss of earning: how can we afford this??)
@Carol Cunningham: Correction: now
@Carol Cunningham: It seems to me that the Irish will complain on forums like this but when it comes down to it they’ll do as they’re told or at the very least pretend to. As long as the Irish people keep accepting this from the government the longer it will go on.
They close hairdressers and restaurants etc which were very well controlled but allow rugby, soccer and gaelic games which are a recipe for spreading the virus.
@rockmast: I can’t speak for soccer and gaelic, but they’re are no rugby games happening other than at elite level. All competitive rugby from adult junior level all the way down to minis is off.
@Adrian Hennessy: Same for the other sports
How can schools operate with indoor classrooms, people mixing in different classrooms, congregating in groups during breaks, congregating with friends after school etc. and yet not be a source of the spread of Covid.
If we could stop them going home we could stop the transmission in the home.
Of course it’s the students of all ages but it’s not their fault.
If we want to decimate the numbers, because that’s all we’ll be doing, we won’t be beating the disease, we need to close the schools.
If we had a firebreak with everything like last March for 2 weeks we’d have achieved more than the 6 week level 5.
In my opinion.
@Gerry Ryan:……… Who exactly looks after the kids when they are at home?
I’m sure some other genius thought of closing the schools but I’m also sure this is one of the main reasons they can’t…
@Willie Murphy: a genius like yourself!
Just a thought, but perhaps the reason “cases” (I use the term lightly as most of these have mild to no symptoms) are going up now is because it’s seasonal and we just happen to be coming into winter, in which viruses thrive. Weather conditions and other factors such as weakened immune systems in the winter months help a lot.
Seeing as level 5 isn’t working, The phrase pissing against the wind springs to mind. Meanwhile 100s of businesses at a minimum will close this year, countless other illnesses will go unchecked. Mental health, suicides, loneliness, the list goes on. Anyway, Happy Christmas!
@John Sheahan: very logical John.. But unfortunately logic is out the window in relation to most things we’ve seen over the past 9 months now
Hysteria
Uni students sharing houses still having house parties and visiting each other’s houses then going home for the wkd to meet-up with family and friends at home at the wkd
Better open up everything or we all be eating potatoes in 2021 and rotten ones..
Seemingly it doesn’t matter about data now even as the CMO is noting tales from friends and anecdotes as the latest reasoning for his and NPHets position in apportioning blame across sectors of society, one at a time. Enough!
The schools point is nonsense considering the vast majority of children asymptomatic.
It’s spreading in schools undetected, being passed to adult family members in the home but NPHET are claiming those adults must have picked it up somewhere else on the grounds of not many symptomatic cases being detected in schools. The logic makes no sense and case rises have correlated perfectly with schools being open, they even declined dramatically in the period after mid term.
@Rochelle: You are 100% correct. It is so obvious that this is what is happening. Until we sort out the schools we are going to be going into lockdown after lockdown.
Closing businesses but being soft on rule breakers doesnt make sense to me. I would open busines with strick rules and come down like a ton of bricks on rule breakers in the public.
I’d like Professor Phillip Nolan to be more specific. He said we have come down from a daily average of 1,200 to 400 but what dates is he talking about. A daily average of 1200 since the pandemic started till the second level 5 lockdown? Or is it after the first level 5 lockdown to the second? I would hope the later. But the i don’t believe that the daily average was 1,200 during this time, I believe it would have been lower. I feel he chose to be unspecific with his words here to make the second lockdown seem to be doing better than it actually is.
THE Government were wrong not to List to Steven Donnelly last weekend re takeaway pubs it’s a joke what’s going on Half A Lockdown is no Good not like in March when we had A Real Lockdown
@pat seery: pat do you think them people would be walking the streets middle novemver with plastic cups if pubs open? And the goverment wanted to fine them. Ha its the equivalent of feeding a starved dog scraps and then bateing him for eating them.. None these scenes be happening if people let sit inside a pub with safety measures.
Test.
Any county that is under 50 cases per 100,000 for a week straight should be allowed open up.
It tells me what I knew all along… that those in power are incompetent
We’re all better off just going balls out into society for the next few months. Bit or herd immunity. Protect the vulnerable and all that jazz.
Looking at the schools, it might just be the parents collecting the kids. They are congregating outside the school gates with no masks, no social distancing having deep conversations.
have your say