IRELAND’S NATIONAL DEBT could reach €250 billion by the 2030s, according to the head of the National Treasury Management Agency.

The NTMA is responsible for managing the national debt and borrowing on behalf of the government. 

The Public Accounts Committee will hear from its chief executive Frank O’Connor this morning, as well as Comptroller and Auditor General Seamus McCarthy and other officials from the Department of Finance.

O’Connor is expected to tell TDs and senators at the committee that such a level of debt “carries risk” and is not something that the agency can be complacent about. 

He will say that when the NTMA was created 35 years ago, the national debt was €30 billion. It now stands at over €200 billion.

“While the population and the size of the economy have grown since then, it is still a very high level of indebtedness,” he will tell the PAC. 

The committee will hear that the cost of servicing debt in 2024 was €3.2 billion – some 60% lower than a peak of €8 billion in 2013.

O’Connor will say the NTMA “took advantage” of the record low interest rates that arose from policies of quantitative easing in recent years “by locking in low borrowing costs for long terms.”

“In addition, we prefunded, borrowing money early at low rates instead of waiting to
borrow at higher rates.”

But he will say that era is over. “The benefits of borrowing at low fixed rates will recede, as these lower-cost debts gradually mature and are replaced with more expensive debt.”

Phishing attack

The PAC will also hear that the agency has recovered half of the €5 million that was stolen from it last year in a phishing attack. 

O’Connor will tell the committee that the theft happened when the NTMA received a fraudulent payment request from a third party “that was designed and timed to pass as a legitimate request from an ISIF investee”. 

However, the NTMA’s IT systems were not compromised as a result of the attack.

“We have previously disclosed the recovery of an initial €1.52 million of the €5 million stolen in the incident. I can disclose today that we have since recovered more money, bringing the total net recovery to €2.5 million,” he will say.

Politicians will hear that recovery efforts are continuing. Deloitte was commissioned to conduct an independent forensic investigation to establish the facts and to examine relevant internal controls.

“That work is now complete,” O’Connor will say.

He will add that the agency has engaged with the Comptroller and Auditor General on the issue, and put enhanced controls in place “immediately after the incident” to protect against future attacks. 

“Deloitte’s investigation also recommended certain key measures to increase protection against similar financial crime risks, which we have implemented in full.”