MICHEÁL MARTIN MUST be scratching his head and wondering just what it is about the presidency that causes issues for leaders.

He avoided the contest in 2011 when most believed Brian Crowley could well have won it. He backed Michael D. Higgins as the incumbent next time out.

This year, though, it seemed impossible that he could get the party to safely sit out yet another presidential election.

But he had a plan. Play it safe. Do not get former leaders on the ticket who either bring up the past in a negative light or cause members to long for the old days if they do well. Do not have current political figures embroiled in debating party policy or decisions. Get a voice from outside the party, someone who will not attract political attacks and then their success or failure will not be an issue.

It was Mike Tyson who once said: “Everyone has a plan until they get a punch in the face.” That must have been what the weekend felt like.

A campaign goes up in smoke

This was the worst outcome for everyone involved in the Fianna Fáil campaign. It was not as if a revelation had ruined a stellar campaign on its own either. Once selected, Jim Gavin suffered from a party that seemed to have no idea what his strengths were or how to bring him to the electorate.

He was woefully prepped for media. He had no support in devising a vision, to the point that he did not even have the most basic of things that science tells us helps with memory: a slogan. Where were the nice words or visionary statement? Where were his strengths in the field of aviation and how that industry is now vital to Ireland and its regions? Where were his community roots in the GAA underneath the gentleman farmer look?

It was a campaign that appeared to have little thought other than to throw him out there and see.

If he is asked a question, we will tell him what to say, is what seemed to be the plan from Fianna Fáil. An age-old failure of someone being ‘prepped’ for media rather than being ‘trained’ to find their own style and answer.

Anyway, Michéal Martin will say he could not have known about this issue with a renter. He is likely not wrong. Research on such things is very difficult in the absence of investigative powers. But there are no doubt party members now know that at least with other internal party candidates they knew the score and everything was likely to have been known.

They’ll lay this failure at the feet of Martin.

For once, his play safe approach has backfired spectacularly.

Many have wondered if it was possible – it cost Fianna Fáil before in the likes of the 2020 election, but that involved ‘what ifs’. This time, it feels different.

It is the first step in TDs beginning to realise that one day a mistake happens and the whole house of cards comes down. One day, Martin will not be leader of FF. Then what?

Jim Gavin's campaign came to an early end as he withdrew this weekend after revelations he had not repaid money owed to a tenant. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Right now, Martin’s skillful dominance of the party has ensured there is no minister or rival that is a clear frontrunner to challenge his experience and popularity. If, say, a Brian Lenihan were alive that might be different.

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Everybody else seems new and all have similar levels of experience. All could make a play for leadership and therefore none are likely to. However, if O’Callaghan, O’Brien, Calleary, Foley or who ever else might see themselves in the frame begin to unite behind one or even two voices, that can change.

Martin will know well that Charles Haughey seemed powerfully dominant as Fianna Fáil leader. Hower, his handling of the 1990 presidential campaign caused cracks with his colleagues who began to feel he was losing his touch. It took a little over a year but they got organised in that time.

There is no doubt a political operator like Martin will be watching every move and comment of his ministers.

His next task is to get through today’s budget unscathed. If that goes well then, the pendulum swings in his favour again.

If, however, it has any issues or polls take a nose dive, then he knows the questions will keep coming. The door has finally opened on that conversation and it will not close easily.

Johnny Fallon is a political commentator, director of Carr Communications and author of ‘Party Time: Growing up in Politics’.