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LAST UPDATE | 18 Oct 2024
WHEN LAST I wrote specifically about the top of the ticket in the campaign to be the next President of the United States, I ventured that Democrats had the advantage in the wake of a debate in which Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump. I was not wrong then, but the momentum of Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, has apparently dissipated.
In late summer, after the vice president had replaced her boss, Joe Biden, as the Democratic Party’s chosen one, progressives were hugely enthused. There was a massive infusion of cash and thousands of volunteers signed up. The aggregated polling data moved slowly, yet surely, in the direction of Harris/Walz in the crucial battlegrounds. Those in America and internationally who fear Trump’s returning to the White House were daring, albeit prematurely, to breathe a shared sigh of relief.
The Harris/Walz energy and buzz have waned. Their gains have evaporated and, it can be cogently argued, the figures are receding to where they were when the beleaguered President Biden was presumed to be the Democrats’ standard bearer. Harris did not do a Fox News interview or float the idea of being a guest on Joe Rogan’s podcast because her strategists are confident of her position. This fight is, looked at in a light most favourable to Harris/Walz, a 50/50 proposition. It’s a toss-up with merely a couple of weeks to go.
A vast audience of astonished spectators, who fret that it is eminently possible that Donald Trump will again be elected the leader of the Western world, ask why? They refer to a litany of despicable past and present words and actions, and what they perceive to be proof of his mental decline. Hence, they cannot fathom how the people of the US could still say “Yes, he’s our man.”
What follows is an attempt to explain, in relatively short shrift, the complex state of play that has led us to where we are. That entails an examination, first, of the sources of and reasons behind Trump’s persistent appeal and, second, of Harris’s failings and weaknesses as a contender.
As for the bombastic billionaire, he came down a Trump Tower escalator in 2015 to announce what the commentariat dismissed as a quixotic ego trip in possession of an acute awareness of the widespread negative, forlorn mood and a willingness to capitalise on it for political profit.
His opponents must give the devil his due: he knew how seriously countless were hurting; he copped that the optimistic rhetoric of the major parties was off the mark in myriad respects; and he was prepared to offer simple solutions to a citizenry enamoured of celebrity and soundbites.
The wounds inflicted by globalisation and technology, deepened by tax and trade policies which were endorsed by Democrats and Republicans alike and which exacerbated inequality – together with a simmering racial divide and resentment at the gradual darkening of the average American’s skin complexion precipitated by immigration across the Mexican border – were ripe for manipulating. Millions wanted the radical surgery advocated by “Doctor” Trump.
And even if they didn’t fully accept that he could do what he pledged – for example, “build that wall” – they agreed with the sentiments buttressing the mantras and appreciated that Trump was talking to, not at, them. When all of this was supplemented by a persuasive pitch to social and religious conservatives that he would do what his predecessors had promised, yet did not prioritise, the foundation for a potent political movement was laid.
The more traditional conservative enemies of its goals have long tried to demonise it and allege that Trumpism has been the path to ruin for a GOP that has been the victim of a hostile takeover. The only route to redemption, they cry out, is to restore normality and the “decent Republicanism” embodied by Ronald Reagan, George Bush Sr and Jr, John McCain and Mitt Romney. They are vocal and they have untrammelled access to important platforms to espouse their criticisms, but they are a tiny minority and they are wrong, politically at least.
Opinion surveys consistently show that most grass-roots conservatives are firmly in Donald Trump’s corner. Lots had come to reject the elitism and intellectualism of the Washington, DC-based right and voted dispassionately for those embraced by the hierarchy, such as McCain and Romney, who were the lesser of two evils in their hearts. They are far more enamoured of Trump’s admittedly impure “turn back the clock” brand of conservatism and its tactically brilliant sloganeering: “Make America Great Again” and “America First.”
Detractors from an array of ideological perspectives describe prominent Republicans as “cowards” for not standing up to Trump and Trumpism. They are appalled by the individual in private. That said, US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and his ilk refuse to condemn him when the microphone is on because of the extraordinary personal loyalty he commands from their faithful and how lucrative their party’s pivoting since his improbable rise has proven.
It was once inconceivable that the GOP would be the home of the white working class; that it would make such inroads with the fastest growing constituency in the US, Latinos, as well as with other new immigrant communities; and that a surprisingly sizeable cohort of Black Americans would opt to give the party a chance. Simultaneously, a large swathe of the “old school” have stayed onside on economic, tax and related grounds, even as they lament Trump’s lack of moral character and are not fans of his number two, Ohio Senator JD Vance.
Factoring in all of these considerations, Trump and Trumpism – regardless of one’s attitude toward him and the style and substance of his messaging – constitute a political juggernaut, especially in a contest where the result is dictated by Electoral College maths. To beat their foe in 2024, the Democrats had to send forward their best.
That’s why Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama et al pushed hard for Biden to abandon his bid for another term. They were cognisant that the fading octogenarian wasn’t up to the task. At this juncture, though, similar doubts are surfacing as to whether Kamala Harris can pull off a victory. Some influential Democrats are reportedly voicing concerns that the accomplished woman of colour is not faring well under the media glare and that she should have picked Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to bolster her odds of prevailing in that vital state.
There are a few inconvenient truths here. First, the biggest quandaries facing the US – inflation and immigration – work against Harris. The cost of goods and services has exploded during the tenure of this administration. Plenty of Americans are legitimately pissed off and aren’t swayed by the contentions that this has affected everyone, everywhere and is easing in the US. They are not better off than they were four years ago and believe the incumbent president’s deputy is blameworthy.
In the same vein, the numbers entering the country illegally have surged dramatically with Biden/Harris in office, straining some communities and leading very many to desire a halt to immigration, temporarily or permanently. They think she is partly responsible. It is tough for Harris, who was delegated the border as an aspect of her brief, to deny all political culpability for what is objectively a mess.
She definitely didn’t aid her cause on either quagmire by commenting on ABC’s “The View” that she’d have done “not a thing” differently than President Biden. The experienced erstwhile prosecutor’s dreadful reply to a query that is unavoidably tricky for her, but to which she should have a stock response, is symptomatic of what is inescapable: Harris is just not a strong candidate.
She is poor on her feet. She struggles to answer probing questions. There is an authenticity deficiency, compounded by her flip-flops on key issues. Harris is not the nominee because she emerged from a competitive primary process in which she vanquished a field of qualified, impressive rivals. She instead benefitted from unprecedented, time-sensitive circumstances.
And regrettably for Democrats, Harris’s greatest success to date – a solid, winning performance in the debate with Trump – paid scant dividends. That any bounce was insignificant and fleeting must be incredibly deflating for liberal activists who have rallied to her and were initially ecstatic that she would be the person to finally eliminate the threat to democracy they see in Trump.
Third, on a range of topics, particularly when it comes to the culture wars, Harris is way to the left of the consensus of those who inhabit the territory that means most on 5 November. Whether it is Black Lives Matter, gender identity, what should and should not be taught in the public schools, the holiday originally intended to celebrate Christopher Columbus or a host of additional “hot button” stuff – all of which feature uniquely centrally on the agenda when ballots are cast in the US – Harris is of her hometown, San Francisco. That’s readily exploitable, to her grave detriment. Democrats more broadly are also feeling the heat on this front.
In a nutshell, then, that’s my assessment of why Harris vs Trump is on a knife edge. Harris’s acolytes and defenders may immediately retort that the above analysis is profoundly unfair to her. In a vacuum, that critique is not wholly lacking in merit. It neglects, however, certain facts. Remember: we live in the world as it is, not as we wish it were.
Yes, Harris is held to a higher standard. Yes, there are elements of racism and sexism lurking there. Yes, Trump is a bad guy, totally amoral, a convicted felon, not someone fit to occupy any elected office, never mind the presidency.
Conversely, the incontrovertible evidence is that it doesn’t matter a damn politically what Trump says or does; he plays the game by a set of rules he makes up as he goes; he has the unwavering fidelity of disciples who would literally jump from a cliff if he asked them to; and loads of quieter, self-interested, ruthlessly transactional Americans who don’t attend his rallies support him, too.
The evaluations of the polls from the two camps are fascinating. Team Trump/Vance maintain robustly that they are ahead, citing the extent to which the popularity of the ex-star of “The Apprentice” is typically underestimated, as is the unknown quantity of shy Trump voters. They are hoping that, among other demographics, an abundance of comfortable suburbanites fall into this category.
Harris/Walz allies assert that they alone have the capacity to expand the electorate and to get young, heretofore apolitical people to do their civic duty with the assistance of invaluable surrogates like former Presidents Obama and Clinton and the pop sensation, Taylor Swift. The Democrats have a superior get out the vote operation. Further, they claim that the fury of women stemming from the reversal of Roe v Wade by a US Supreme Court majority with three Trump-sponsored justices is not captured and will propel their duo over the line.
The contrasting interpretations are equally plausible. Which of them is closest to reality may tell the tale in an absolutely enthralling, immensely consequential race that seems destined for a photo finish.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a law lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with The Journal.
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Because she can’t string a sentence together without referring to her pre written statement. She got found out last night when there was tough questions put her way. “We both know what we’re talking about” “ actually I don’t”
And her staff was trying to cut it short but Brett kept going, fair play to him for questioning her
@Shane Jordan: she is lawyer first and foremost so will always go the long way around to get to a point but actually she never does
@Shane Jordan: On Sean Hannity’s Show, Brett Baier said that Harris did well in the interview , he said if her goal was to get good sound bites criticizing Trump then she definitely succeeded in that. Brett Baier has also admitted that he played the wrong clip. Brett Baier’s only goal was to get Harris in a ‘gotcha’ sound bite and he didn’t succeed. Trump is not happy with Fox but I’m sure the normal service with ‘softball’ Trump interviews will resume.
@Frank Marker: I have to ask where you got that information
@Shane Jordan: Fox News of course. Does Sean Hannity do any other network?
@Shane Jordan: He said it on his own show – Fox News host Brett Baier said Thursday that he accidentally played the wrong Donald Trump clip during his interview with Kamala Harris this week. On today’s edition of “Special Report” Baier said he intended to use a clip from Trump’s interview with Maria Bartiromo on Sunday, not from his town hall with Harris Faulkner.
“I did make a mistake, and I want to say the mistake,” Baier explained on “Special Report” Thursday. “When I called for a soundbite, I was expecting a piece of ‘enemy from within’ from Maria Bartiromo’s interview, to be tied to the piece from your town hall, Harris, where you ask the former president about the enemy from within. It just had the piece about the town hall.”
@Shane Jordan: if you search Fox News’ YouTube channel “Brett Maier : Kamala wanted a viral moment and she got it” you’ll find it, Baier said she got her soundbites and was quite complimentary on how prepared she was for the interview. It was obviously not the type of “softball” interview Trump always gets when he goes on Fox News. Fair play, she knew she was going in to a hostile environment on Fox News but she handled it well.
@Shane Jordan: you do know Trump also had a malfunctioning teleprompter last weekend and could continue without it. It’s a weird thing to focus on when everybody uses teleprompters. Just shows you will believe and repeat everything your leader says, just like every other cult
@Dermot Blaine: could not
@Shane Jordan: You’re supposed to change your handle before you reply to yourself, comrade.
Bottom line….. all the stars are perfectly aligned for the NO WAR President of Peace to easily & comprehensively retake the White House Nov 5th….. credit to the warmongers, they used every lowlife dirty trick in the book ( ultimately relying on assassin attempts) to try & derail the JUGGERNAUT OF PEACE but failed miserably. We are fortunate, after what’s been done to him, the president of peace is willing AND WILL serve us again. It’ll be an almighty victory in Nov
@Frank Mc Carthy: You guys would have so much more credibility if you’d stop repeating platitudes. Why don’t you use your own mind?
@Frank Mc Carthy: jeez Buster / Maurice you’ve been trotting out the same rhetoric for nearly 4 years now, I’ll admit it’s a much closer race than I thought we’d have but I think it would be premature to simply write off Harris & Waltz just yet….with over 3 weeks remaining there’s still plenty of wiggle room for an upset for either party. Hopefully, & I think I speak for everyone interested in this ‘race’ I genuinely wish that President Trump WILL survive until the results are in, whatever they may be
@Louis Jacob: Oh, the irony! You’re asking Frank to use his own mind….Larry Donnelly actually used one of Frank’s own expressions ‘Political Juggernaut’ in the above article! Trump to win BIGLY!!!
@Frank Mc Carthy: The actual ‘bottom line’ of the article above, if you read it, says it’s down to a photo finish.
@Finian McG: as much as I’d love to I really can’t claim credit for ” JUGGERNAUT OF PEACE “….. I think Buster Lawless came up with that one couple years ago….. in fairness, it IS catchy
@Frank Mc Carthy: Busters other account.
@Frank Mc Carthy: Larry Donnelly definitely thought so!
@Louis Jacob: you’re soo right…… I think the NO WAR President is the best option…… those years of peace, 2016/2020 were beautiful to behold. Those proxy wars in Russia/ Ukraine & Israel/ Palestine are only of benefit to shareholders in the arms industry. There ya go !!!!!!!
@Frank Mc Carthy: Peace? No one has divided America more, spreading hate and bigoted views. The convicted felon President, the Instigator of the Capitol riots, the compulsive liar, mysoginist, narcissist, xenophobe, and worst US President in history. And you aren’t doing your Cork country any favours.
@Frank Mc Carthy: The Trump years, when more civilians were killed by US drone strikes than any previous administration nor since. So many civilians were being killed in drone strikes that Trump ordered the US military / Pentagon to stop releasing official casualty statistics. Why else would he try and cover it up?
@James T.Kirk: Bush was demonstrably worse.
@Frank Mc Carthy: who is we Paleface ?
@Frank Mc Carthy: why did you change you profile from buster?
@Frank Mc Carthy: Hi Buster, how are things?
@Frank Mc Carthy: Trump literally wanted to nuke Iran. He also wanted to nuke drug dealers in South American countries. He ordered the death of an Isis leader and behaved like a child when they achieved that. The only reason Russia didn’t invade Ukraine was they were not ready yet- Nothing to do with Trump. He threatened to pull out of NATO- the organisation that has kept the world in relative peace since WW2. Trump wants to use the military against his own opponents. President of peace? That’s hilarious
@Frank Mc Carthy: Any relation to Ken Mc Carthy ?? How many different accounts is it now..? The mind boggles that grown men would keep making up multiple accounts to spam their drivel about a sex offender they idolise. Truly pathetic..
@Brian: it’s at least 2 different accounts in this thread alone!!
@Kevin Kerr: hey stalker #1, I think 4 at LEAST
@Kevin Kerr: The Journal really need to get a grip on this kind of spamming..
@Frank Mc Carthy: oh and what a dancer,just what the most powerful country in the world needs,a old man you can dance and full his nappy at the same time.
@Brian: 100% , Brian….used to be a great open transparent informative site, nowadays alas, it seems to be all stalkers & I strongly suspect duplicate accounts
@Brian: yep, it’s a monumental pain in the hole
@Frank Mc Carthy: This is the most biased article too….shitting on Trump and praising KommieLa…..she is useless and not fit to be president of a retirement home bridge club never mind the highest office in the world!!!! She has failed miserably in every interview, every task over the past 4years and she is not going to change now!!! I for sure was better off under the Trump administration!!! Trump will win….unless they cheat again!!! In Ohio Trump is not even on the ballot…..and he is not in the government official website either…neither in Vance!! Such blatant election interference is disgraceful!!!!
Because eventhough I can’t stand Trump, I have the cop on understand that when people like Dick Cheney (a patently more dangerous conservative than Trump) joins forces with leftists like Harris, they are struggling to protect the sanctum of a political class that acts in it’s own interests nearly 100% of the time.
I honestly don’t think I could vote for either of these candidates.
@Louis Jacob: Cheney is nowhere near as dangerous as Trump.
@James T.Kirk: Lied to the American people so he could start a war that killed countless millions and destabilized the middle east causing many if our present day geo political problems. It’s almost impossible to calculate the entirety of the evil Cheney has caused. Trump isn’t even capable of it.
@James T.Kirk: missing some part of your brain if you think Trump is more dangerous while he literally spread lies about weapons of mass destruction for the sake of destroying the Middle East and for Carlyle shareholders (who owns plenty of military companies that signed 9 billion $ contract right before the second war in Irak…)
@Louis Jacob: What left policies does Harris have?
@Louis Jacob:BUSH was in charge ,yet another republican who can’t be trusted
Why do the people of Ireland think they know anything about America? They come for cheap clothes in the outlets like Woodbury Commons and decide that they know everything about the country. The vast majority of the Irish people who live here are Trump supporters that’s a fact.
@Ulick: Outstanding social scientific observation there. Fair play to you for polling all the Irish people who live in America and particularly the ones in the crucial few marginal swing states that are US citizens who can actually vote.
@Ulick: Get your facts straight
@Ulick:
…are you ind of the McGee clan?
@Ulick: feckwit
@Ulick: Yessss THIS!!!! Trump/Vance 2024!!!!!!
Thank goodness she has destroyed her chances of winning the election I for one are looking forward to four years of peace in the world without war thanks to President Trump. She is finished
@Trump 24: Nobody, including Trump has said how he is going to achieve a world without war. Maybe you have insight into how Trump is going to bring about peace??
@Trump 24: The media just yesterday twisted Trump’s words about Ukraine. He said that had It been a member of NATO Putin would not have attacked. They contorted this into, it is Zelensky’s that started the war.
@Faejit Balloobas: Well in his first term there was no new wars as he had respect from the crazy dictators that start these wars whereas they laugh at the weak democrats. Trump 24 congratulations President Trump.
@Trump 24: “Peace through Strength” is the only option with bullies.
It won’t happen but I would love to see her sit down with Joe Rogan for a 3 hour, no script, no staff in the room podcast. She’ll never do it of course. It’s easy to see why she didn’t do any interviews for the first 6 weeks of her candidacy. When you have Larry telling you she can’t think on her feet, I don’t need anyone to @me that she can. That’s she’s a tough prosecutor, really? Go have a look at her actual record. She had a massive opportunity to surge ahead in the polls after the Fox interview. Immigration is one of the top issues and she wouldn’t answer the very first question on that interview about it
@Mick O’K: She actually answered that question very well, her policy based on the Bipartisan Border Protection bill supported and put forward by a Republican senator that Trump scuppered just so he could campaign on the border being an issue. A lot of ‘echo chamber’ Fox News viewers heard that for the first time in that interview, it even trended on google search during the interview. A lot of Fox News viewers didn’t know that a Border Protection bill was ready to be passed by Congress but Trump didn’t want it to pass because he wanted to make it an election issue.
@Frank Marker: out of the total money in that bill how much was going to the border issue? Where was the balance going
@Frank Marker: how many illegal would you estimate your administration has admitted over the last 3 years? That was the question. What was her answer
@Mick O’K: The bill was initially supported by both sides, it was even supported by the border patrol agencies working on the border. Additional money was being allocated to speed up the asylum adjudication process. A law passed by congress is far better than any presidential executive order which would be subject to legal challenges. It was going to be an improvement on the status quo but Trump cynically wanted the bill to fail so he could campaign on the issue. She said it in the interview and ‘unaware’ Fox News viewers got to hear it.
@Frank Marker: They wouldn’t need a Border Protection bill if they hadn’t opened the borders in the first place. And ofncoursebthe bill cobtained a lot of Democrat wishlist bull aswell.
@Mick O’K: Frank won’t answer because he does not have one.
@Stopthelights: how was the money in that bill being spent? What percentage was actually going to border issues
@Mick O’K: What a weird question, an administration can’t officially admit anyone into the country “illegally”. If they were officially admitted or processed by a government agency then they would have to have at least been processed with some status, even if it’s only temporary status or subject to some adjudication process for asylum etc.
@Alfred Ryan: Plain and simple, Trump didn’t want the bipartisan border protection bill to pass because he didn’t want progress to be made on the border issue just so he could use it as an election issue. In the Brett Baier interview, she made it clear to a Fox News audience that probably never heard it before on that network.
@Frank Marker: you’re not answering Frank
@Mick O’K: Your question about how many “illegals” were “admitted“ by an administration or government agency makes no sense. If someone is processed and “admitted” even with temporary status for adjudication for asylum they can’t be “illegal” unless they subsequently breach the conditions of their admission by that agency. Even Fox News viewers got the point that a Border Protection Bill was going to secure additional resources to protecting the border and faster adjudication of asylum cases.
@Frank Marker: that was the question put to her Frank. Nothing to do with me Now about that bill and how the money attached was allocated?
@Mick O’K: Joe Rogan is a complete tool,took the money,a complete sell out
@Mick O’K: Trump has backed out of all sit down interviews the past two weeks. Have whoever reads for you read that to you
@Philip Groark: how many interviews did Harris give in the first 6 weeks of her candidacy? I’ll wait on your reply
@sean weir: joe rogan has the biggest audience in the world Seán. So you can think of him however you want
Trump, if elected, will turn the county into a de facto dictatorship with dire consequences for the US and the world.
@michael powell: @michael powell: like he did the last time he was president?
Your stupidity knows no bounds.
I suppose NPC’s only know what they are programmed to know.
@Jim: He tried though.
And failed.
Now he knows how to do it.
@michael powell: it’s already a dictatorship run by Israel
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: explain how he “tried”, what exactly did he do & why did it ‘fail’ & got once try use actual verifiable facts to validate your argument, not feeling or opinion as you tend to do in your commenys
*for once
*comments
Soon I will be drinking lefty salty tears from my cup of plenty, Trump is rising like a Phoenix and peace and prosperity will reign,
@Dan Murphy: Harris isn’t on the left, you must be a yank ,lack of education showing
@sean weir: The ignorance of Americans never ceases to amaze.
And the ignorance of the US Republican far right is stunning.
When even Larry Donnelly is calling Harris a poor candidate that cant answer questions you know its really bad.
@barry fay: It’s as much of a confirmation from him he knows President Trump will win the election.
@barry fay: Larry is a republican:/
Do we really need daily reports on the election of the president of the USA?
@Padraig O’Brien: it’s been daily reports for the last two years. The co2 emissions from an American presidential election must be huge.
@Padraig O’Brien: you got a gun to your head FORCING you to read em’?? I find it fascinating to observe a race that, like it or not, will affect the whole world
@Kevvy kerrr: I enjoy it because I couldn’t really give a fiddler’s who wins it. It’s superb entertainment.
This writer who is supposed to be unbiased is glaringly not, using words like despicable, bombastic and quixotic to describe Trump. This is a popular lobbyist ploy, hoping to subliminally influence the reader, or listener. He also used a quote without citing who said it, in which Trump is called a word which means evil. That is not journalism, it’s propaganda. Incidentally, the polls are ENTIRELY reliant on who has conducted them and do not reflect reality. You are being set up (or the US is) for potential catastrophic and divisive outcome. And Larry Donnelly, try communicating more clearly and with less bias, please.
@Always Question: Do you have an acute sense of irony. Mitch McConnell does not deny calling Trump “despicable”, “s-t-u-p-i-d”, “narcististic”, etc. BEFORE January 6th, 2021. We you even aware of those quotes revealed this week? The people closest to Trump as president? No political leader in The West since WW2 has been eviscerated by his own staff to the extent Trump has been. And you pretend anyone else but him and you have the actual problem. Trump blows your argument out of the water every time he makes a public statement. You are some s-c-h-m-u-c-k!
@Numinous20111:I can’t understand one sentence of what you’ve written.
They aren’t neck and neck. They are saying that to hype it up. In the US everything is about money. The media make a fortune on the back of elections.
@James T.Kirk: what polls are you looking at?
@Mick O’K: Try 538. It lists all the polls. Trump is losing nationally and in the electrical college. Have someone draw pictures for you so you can get the gist.
@Philip Groark: now tell me by how much
They’re not neck and neck. TRUMP is ahead. And Trump will win. Unless the Dems bring out their voting dead…again
@Alfred Ryan: Sure thing, there was so much compelling evidence of that happening that over 59 state and federal court cases dismissed or ruled against every case brought before them. Even Fox News ended up shelling out $780 million to settle their defamation case claiming in their defense that their former presenters like Tucker Carlson were in fact entertainers not journalists.
Because the United States is a racist, colonialist basket-case.
@Jacintha Dumbrell: Are you trying to say that American police are racist? All of sudden, i can’t breathe..
@Paul Gorry: more whitesget shotdead by the police.watch the shooting of Daniel shaver on utube.
@Jacintha Dumbrell: Complete nonsense. Go back to sleep.
@P. V. Aglue: Seen that pal. Absolutely disgusting. But in the grand scheme of things. US cops hate the darker colour person. Just my opinion mind!.
@Paul Gorry: and that’s the whole problem.
Your ‘opinion’ or ‘feelings’ don’t actually matter.
The facts & statistics clearly show more white people are shot by police in the US every year than any other race. This is fact borne out of statistics.
Black people kill more black people & black people kill more white people in the US every year than white/black, white/white killings – these are verifiable facts.
If you don’t like them you don’t get to have ‘new’ facts & statistics – you need new feelings or a new opinion.
@Jim: yeah more blacks are in jail??
@Jim: Proportionally, US cops kill more Black than White people.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/do-police-kill-more-whites-than-black-people/
Your feelings don’t matter either
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: that’s not even close to being true
@sean weir: when 13% of the population commits close to half the crime in the country you’re going to get that
@Mick O’K: When people are arrested, assaulted, or murdered for breathing While Black then the crime stats will tend to show those people to be criminals.
When in a decent society they could simply lead their lives.
And yes, proportionally far more Blacks are assaulted and killed by US cops than Whites.
You racism is showing.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: your ignorance of facts is showing. You’re on her everyday spreading hate and now you’re at the misinformation. You’re entitled to your opinion my friend but you don’t have a right to make up “your truth”. Google is your friend ya know, maybe try clearing your internet search history and the algorithm might just might take you outside your echo chamber As what you just posted is the dictionary definition of misinformation
It’s reminiscent of the 2022 midterms, it was assumed there was going to be a “red wave” that the Democrats were destined to lose both the House and the Senate. The red wave didn’t materialize. Trump candidates like Dr.Oz in Pennsylvania didn’t win their Senate races, Kari Lake in Arizona didn’t win in Arizona despite what the polls were saying. This one is still on a knife edge.
When Trump was asked about IVF he start talking about Tips and Kamala is the one who dodges questions. He nevers answers questions about economic policies either. It will be the best we are going to do Great things, you won’t even believe how Great they will be.
Trump Bots out in force again. It can mean only one thing… they’re absolutely terrified.
@Conrad Stapletwin: nope on the victory march, Trump is ahead in all the swing states, KH is out to almost 6-4. Trump 4-6 at best.
@Robert Bell: Harris is ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Michigan.
Trump is ahead in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
Trump sweating and swaying to music for 30 minutes convinced me he is the man for the job, apparently his health is failing. We can only hope
@Freda Peeple: I don’t want him to escape justice by dying.
And his imbecilic followers will forever claim he was never convicted of insurrection/democracy overthrow attempts, etc..
Did ye see that trump guy having an auld disco the other night,amazing stuff. I swear he is Andy kaufman having a laugh, no one is that weird
She let in 6 million illegal migrants as Creepy Joe Bidens Border Tsar.
She denies Sniffy Joe had cognitive issues when even George Clooney was calling it out.
She’s screwed.
@Paul: Hahaha and who blocked the border bill? Yea the republicans, because they didn’t want the dems getting credit. Low IQ red neck party strike again :)
@Freda Peeple: how was the money in that bill going to be spent? What percentage was actually going to be used for border issues?
@Paul: Armed militia are out after FEMA workers thanks to Trumps lies, he doesn’t care who get hurt in his bid to avoid prison
@Mick O’K: The money in that bill was to be spent how US Congressional Republicans decided it should be spent.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: what percentage was actually going to be used for border issues and where was the rest of the money allocated? I absolutely know you don’t know the answer as you’re just repeating sound bites you’ve been spoon fed
@Mick O’K: It does no matter.
US Republicans and Democrats came up with a bill to address border security.
They agreed this was the way forward.
But Traitor Don told them not to pass it.
He reminded them they are not there to solve problems. For if they actually solve a problem they won’t be able to bitch about it.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: so like I said you have no clue. Haven’t the first notion what you’re talking about unless you’re told what to talk about
@Mick O’K: What I am saying is that the US Republican Party blocked their own bill on immigration because they were told NOT to solve the problem by Traitor Don.
That is the simple truth.
No matter how you try to deflect.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: they blocked it? Why? What did the bill entail
@Mick O’K: The bill was agreed by Republicans and Democrats.
You know why it was blocked.
You know that Trump told them to block their own bill.
You know that was because Trump did not want a problem solved.
You know that is because Trump wouldn’t be able to bitch about it if it was solved.
You know that Trump’s propaganda lying networks like Fox would not be able to lie and try to blame Democrats for a problem if it was solved.
Republicans do not want to solve problems.
If problems were solved they would not be able to bitch about them, and would not be able to blame others.
For that is what the far right do.
You know all these things.
You cannot pretend otherwise.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: I’ve asked several people on this article to break down how the money was going to be spent in that bill. Not one of you have answered that because as I said you not one of you know. Now for the last time. How was that money being allocated
Trump is far from a juggernaut. He has never been able to breach 47% support, which has been his ceiling.
Harris has breached the 50% level.
Here is some polling from the last few days, Larry
Economist/YouGov 16/10 Harris +4%
Farleigh Dickenson 16/10 Harris +3%
Marist 16/10 Harris +5%
Tipp Insights 16/10 Harris +4%
Morning Consult 15/10 Harris +4%
Reuters/Ipsos 15/10 Harris +3%
Tipp Insights 15/10 Harris +3%
Democrats have also outperformed the polls in all recent elections by 5%, or greater.
Early voting had started in Georgia, and now North Carolina.
The first 2 days in Georgia have each blown by previous voting records, with those two days alone reaching 10% of the total number of votes cast previously.
Likewise early reports from NC suggest heavier voting than normal.
Reports also suggest large numbers of women voters.
How many “Republican” women are making sure their vote is not being supervised by their husbands and fathers this time around?
Oh, and CancunCruz is a mere 1% ahead, if we are to believe the polls.
In Texas.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: Betfair is where the real polls are, Trump starting to pull away now. I be very suprised if Trump loses.
@Robert Bell: @Robert Bell: Except that gamblers are not representative of the voter.
Gamblers and Trump supporters come from the same imbecilic portion of the population.
Indeed study after study has shown a correlation between low intelligence and the right wing mind.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: only 1 favourite has ever lost the US election so you are talking bull.
@Robert Bell: O’K then…
List out all the presidential races, the betting odds against time, and the results.
And who gave those odds.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: She’s going to win the popular vote as all but one democratic candidate since 1988 has, but the presidency doesn’t necessarily go to the candidate who gets the most votes.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: Hilary Clinton was the only fav that lost.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere:
@Robert Bell: be prepared to lose some money so
@Robert Bell: So you say.
Now, what were the betting odds on all those elections?
Over time?
@Robert Bell: Betfair?
US citizens weren’t allowed to bet on US elections until a couple of weeks ago.
So how would a British gambling company reflect the intensions of the US voter anyway?
I don’t think you understand the purpose of the gambling industry, or its skill set.
Why are they neck and neck?
Because she struggles with articulating anything like a normal human being. And he is exactly what he is
@Keego: Her man interviews contradict your 1st claim.
And merely passing off probably the vilest thing to ever run for high office in the US as ‘he is what he is’ sanitises great evil.
Because it’s a 50/50 election. I don’t understand the title of the headline
@Cathal Scully: So ye didn’t bother reading the article @ cathal scully. The mind boggles.
We are watching the demise of the United States as a world power. Putin will soon control the White House and Ukraine will be overrun because of the cowardice of Republicans.
The GOP will dissappear and the Cult will take over
The Felon and the Weird Vance will soon hand America over to the Fascists.
@Bat Collins: America will always rule the world.
@Bat Collins: This one election will hasten the fall of an empire – either the Russian or the US.
If Trump wins, then the demise of the US is closer.
If Harris wins, then the russian nightmare cannot be too far off.
,(Assuming Vance doesn’t have Trump replaced by himself for mental incompetence, which is surely Peter Thiel’s plan.)
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: “…the *end* of the russian nightmare cannot be too far off.”
@Robert Bell: spent force
It’s always been neck and neck. Neither candidate has been able to make any significant jumps as the electorate is so polarised. The fact elections are playing out on social media deepens this polarisation and so the candidates have little to do with it. Trump was almost assassinated and it didn’t really move his numbers. He’s been at around 47 consistently regardless of how he’s performing in interviews etc. The same is true of Harris. This will come down to the wire and it’ll be won by those undecided voters who decide last minute whether they’ll bother to vote or not. That’s why Harris is doing oddball interviews, to try to reach people that don’t watch the news or 60minutes etc. Not because her candidacy is a disaster.
@Sandra: sounds like it’s been lined up to be rigged then so.
Courts to make public today Friday further evidence in Trump’s Election Interference case
https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-asks-judge-jan-6-case-delay-release/story?id=114892192
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: Yawn. In California, Gavin Newson just made it illegal to ask for ID when voting!! In a place where you need ID for practically everything. You don’t deem THAT election interference. It’s just another tactic and one of many in their arsenal and the non-critical thinkers just lap it up and say thank you to their owners.
@Always Question: We are talking about actual evidence of election interferencre – trying to overturn the wishes of the electorate here.
I take it you have no interest in such things.
Newsom is merely applying California law, which *never* required voted ID., despite your implication.
Now, if you truly want to bitch about voter interference, how about what Paxton is doing in Texas with his intimidation tactics, or that sheriff in Ohio who told Republicans to take the addresses of those with Harris signs on their property, or the bomb threats that shut down Democrat campaign offices in Wisconsin(?).
Or the purges of voter roles in Democrat majority parts of Republican states so close to the election that the voter would be unlikely to be able to reregister.
Or so many more.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: Strange the way you do not need ID to vote, how could that be an advantage to one party ….
@alan dunne: Harris is going to win California by millions of votes anyway, total non-story but seemingly the best you can come up with.
@alan dunne: It goes back to their constitution, which gave the right to vote when there was no such thing as an ID.
There are many in the US who experience great difficulty obtaining IDs – Native Americans as one example.
US Republicans use such things as IDs to try to disenfranchise as many voters as they can, while making it excessively difficult for such people to get such IDs.
(They also do other things, like have one voting location for a vast area that deem likely to vote Democrat, restricted voting days and hours, etc.)
Like here, a birth certificate is often used as the document to obtain other services, including voting registration. There are also various validation requirements – social security numbers, signature matching, etc.
And a legal declaration.
Those few – and there are always a few – who attempt individual voter fraud are invariably caught, and prosecuted.
At least at the national level. I wouldn’t trust Republicans to prosecute their own at state level.
In any case, California is a state that does not require ID to vote. It doesn’t now, and didn’t under Reagan.
Newsom is making sure the same laws apply to everyone.
Because one Republican controlled region was trying to disenfranchise some of its citizens.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: Excellent use of AI there. whoever or whatever you are; and Kamala answered that same question just like you did. By plucking statistics out of the myriad of political newspeak but without actually answering it. The question is: Should ID be required to vote. She said that country people are not capable of photocopying so they shouldn’t be expected to do it. Holy god, I thought secret ballot was a done deal a long time ago.
Harris is poor on her feet?
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1847026390471762293
Meanwhile Trump has cancelled an NRA rally.
Think about that.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere:
https://twitter.com/briantylercohen/status/1846942097775251822
Good cop, bad cop tactics on a mass scale.
Same result.
Polls on the national popular vote might be neck and neck, but when it comes down to the electoral college Trump is predicted at over 300 seats already, and this is only expected to increase.
Over the last week his lead over Harris in the betting markets has nearly doubled.
While Harris has done herself no favours in her media tour, one notable point is the way in which US media outlets that have previously been sympathetic, if not openly sycophantic, towards the Democrat party and their candidates, have become somewhat more hostile recently.
This could be a result of Trump becoming the favoured candidate of the Israel lobby.
@Garry Coll: Except the polls don’t says that, for what they’re worth anyway.
(Dems have outperformed poling by 5% or more in all elections since the last GE.)
Those that claim to have the most accurate past performance run probability functions (like the Monte Carlo Simulation). They currently have Harris at 54% likelyhood to win.
@Garry Coll: You’ll need to provide some actual evidence to back any of that up, Garry.
Distinct whiff of “fake news” off your comment.
@Conrad Stapletwin:
Betting markets.
https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1846940848274968600?t=OXAc4EIvCykB7rc37V75OA&s=19
@Garry Coll: That’s not a reputable source. Try again.
The platonic ideal of democracy is that swing voters carefully study the positions of candidates before deciding which one is most aligned with their values and interests, but if you watch focus groups of undecided voters in Swing States you can see how simplistic their understanding of politics is and how easily they can be swayed.
Unfortunately, a system designed in the 18th Century to protect slave owners gives them undue influence.
@Seamus Enright: try again as to why the electoral college system was put in place
@Mick O’K: Why don’t you explain the electoral college system and why it was put in place since you appear to be some kind of expert?
@Conrad Stapletwin: Yeah Mick. I’m all ears.
@Mick O’K: whatever the reason, it’s not true democracy.
@Mick O’K: The Electoral College *was* put in place to protect the interests of the Slave States.
The Slave States had a low population of White settlers, but a high population of slaves.
Those states wanted to be able to benefit from the total population in their Congressional representation, but not allow their slaves to have the right to vote.
And then how could such a small voting population have an outsized vote for president?
How to square that circle?
The EC.
Which separated the people who voted from those who elected the president. Allowing a smaller number of the former to have a larger number of the later.
It is entirely undemocratic and should have been abolished after the civil war.
So that vastly populated states like New York and California couldn’t decide every election. It’s very simple lads. The slave states mentioned? Democrats mostly as the Republican Party lead by Lincoln won the civil war
@Mick O’K: Incorrect. Try again as to why the electoral college system was put in place.
As I suspected, you seem completely clueless on this subject.
@Mick O’K: Nope!
Slave states had large slave populations, which the slave owners did not want to have any rights.
But they did not want to have the small number of representatives in Congress that would result from their small White population.
So they came up with the scheme that each slave would be worth 3/5 of a person, and the state’s representation in Congress would be proportional to its White population and 3/5 of its slave populations.
Then how were they to elect a president?
Instead of merely having one vite for each eligible (White) person electing the president, hey came up with a scheme where there would be an Electoral College consisting of the same number as that states representation in Congress, that is skewed by an additional 3/5 of the slave population
It is entirely undemocratic, of course.
Honestly, you know so little about the US you could be a citizen.
In fact you know so very little you could be a US Republican.
@Mick O’K: California was part of The Kingdom of New Spain when the electoral college was formed, as anyone who was even vaguely knowledgeable about North American History would know.
@Seamus Enright: I used largely populated stars as example seamus as you can see from my post
Doesn’t matter. Both are owned by Israel as is the entire United States.
Land of the free?
Laughable.
Can we get back to discussing normal things like Leprechauns, Banshees, Pooka’s, Fairy Forts and all things relevant to Éire. There is No Opinion on the Politics of the USA and it’s possible outcome other than “The Political Pundits haven’t got a Clue” and neither do the Candidates !
Stop it with the MSM misinformation, They are not neck and neck, all serious polls predict a Trump win. The Harris camp are petrified of a Trump will as he will release the Epstein list, as it has scores of extremely wealthy democrats on it! There will be voter fraud and all sorts of attempts to ensure he doesn’t win! (Is 3 attempts on his life not evidence enough) and no it’s not conspiracy- do proper research away from MSM!
North Carolina – Governor
Dem candidate now leading Repub by 49% to 36%
https://www.newsweek.com/mark-robinsons-chances-against-josh-stein-north-carolina-poll-1970968
The Repub was leading by 5 points last May.
They aren’t neck and neck.
Why is Ireland bombarded with pro Harris articles ?
The Harris Biden PR here, has always been over the top.
They’ve both been dreadful for the USA, the Ukraine and Gaza but we get gaslit about them both.
Americans are crazy self delusional people with no heritage and therefore will elect a head the ball lunatic who will cause immense damage to ordinary people and the world well crack pot Americans
Yet more Trump crookery.
@ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: Why we are wasting our precious moments on Earth pointing out what Trump himself makes so evident….to people who are bankrupt, either by genuinely supporting Trump, or who can’t manage to aspire to more than trolling….It’s not Trump. It’s tens of millions of Americans, hundreds of GOP Congress members, thousands of GOP state officials, dozens of media companies, a handful of technology billionaires who are utterly debased. It’s a far greater problem than one single 8 year old mentality with power fantasies, fueled by amphetamines, cocaine and malignant narcissism and insatiable grifting and need for celebrity. Trump is just exposing how lost much of America truly is.
have your say