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LAST UPDATE | 18 Oct 2024
WHEN LAST I wrote specifically about the top of the ticket in the campaign to be the next President of the United States, I ventured that Democrats had the advantage in the wake of a debate in which Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump. I was not wrong then, but the momentum of Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, has apparently dissipated.
In late summer, after the vice president had replaced her boss, Joe Biden, as the Democratic Party’s chosen one, progressives were hugely enthused. There was a massive infusion of cash and thousands of volunteers signed up. The aggregated polling data moved slowly, yet surely, in the direction of Harris/Walz in the crucial battlegrounds. Those in America and internationally who fear Trump’s returning to the White House were daring, albeit prematurely, to breathe a shared sigh of relief.
The Harris/Walz energy and buzz have waned. Their gains have evaporated and, it can be cogently argued, the figures are receding to where they were when the beleaguered President Biden was presumed to be the Democrats’ standard bearer. Harris did not do a Fox News interview or float the idea of being a guest on Joe Rogan’s podcast because her strategists are confident of her position. This fight is, looked at in a light most favourable to Harris/Walz, a 50/50 proposition. It’s a toss-up with merely a couple of weeks to go.
A vast audience of astonished spectators, who fret that it is eminently possible that Donald Trump will again be elected the leader of the Western world, ask why? They refer to a litany of despicable past and present words and actions, and what they perceive to be proof of his mental decline. Hence, they cannot fathom how the people of the US could still say “Yes, he’s our man.”
What follows is an attempt to explain, in relatively short shrift, the complex state of play that has led us to where we are. That entails an examination, first, of the sources of and reasons behind Trump’s persistent appeal and, second, of Harris’s failings and weaknesses as a contender.
As for the bombastic billionaire, he came down a Trump Tower escalator in 2015 to announce what the commentariat dismissed as a quixotic ego trip in possession of an acute awareness of the widespread negative, forlorn mood and a willingness to capitalise on it for political profit.
His opponents must give the devil his due: he knew how seriously countless were hurting; he copped that the optimistic rhetoric of the major parties was off the mark in myriad respects; and he was prepared to offer simple solutions to a citizenry enamoured of celebrity and soundbites.
The wounds inflicted by globalisation and technology, deepened by tax and trade policies which were endorsed by Democrats and Republicans alike and which exacerbated inequality – together with a simmering racial divide and resentment at the gradual darkening of the average American’s skin complexion precipitated by immigration across the Mexican border – were ripe for manipulating. Millions wanted the radical surgery advocated by “Doctor” Trump.
And even if they didn’t fully accept that he could do what he pledged – for example, “build that wall” – they agreed with the sentiments buttressing the mantras and appreciated that Trump was talking to, not at, them. When all of this was supplemented by a persuasive pitch to social and religious conservatives that he would do what his predecessors had promised, yet did not prioritise, the foundation for a potent political movement was laid.
The more traditional conservative enemies of its goals have long tried to demonise it and allege that Trumpism has been the path to ruin for a GOP that has been the victim of a hostile takeover. The only route to redemption, they cry out, is to restore normality and the “decent Republicanism” embodied by Ronald Reagan, George Bush Sr and Jr, John McCain and Mitt Romney. They are vocal and they have untrammelled access to important platforms to espouse their criticisms, but they are a tiny minority and they are wrong, politically at least.
Opinion surveys consistently show that most grass-roots conservatives are firmly in Donald Trump’s corner. Lots had come to reject the elitism and intellectualism of the Washington, DC-based right and voted dispassionately for those embraced by the hierarchy, such as McCain and Romney, who were the lesser of two evils in their hearts. They are far more enamoured of Trump’s admittedly impure “turn back the clock” brand of conservatism and its tactically brilliant sloganeering: “Make America Great Again” and “America First.”
Detractors from an array of ideological perspectives describe prominent Republicans as “cowards” for not standing up to Trump and Trumpism. They are appalled by the individual in private. That said, US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and his ilk refuse to condemn him when the microphone is on because of the extraordinary personal loyalty he commands from their faithful and how lucrative their party’s pivoting since his improbable rise has proven.
It was once inconceivable that the GOP would be the home of the white working class; that it would make such inroads with the fastest growing constituency in the US, Latinos, as well as with other new immigrant communities; and that a surprisingly sizeable cohort of Black Americans would opt to give the party a chance. Simultaneously, a large swathe of the “old school” have stayed onside on economic, tax and related grounds, even as they lament Trump’s lack of moral character and are not fans of his number two, Ohio Senator JD Vance.
Factoring in all of these considerations, Trump and Trumpism – regardless of one’s attitude toward him and the style and substance of his messaging – constitute a political juggernaut, especially in a contest where the result is dictated by Electoral College maths. To beat their foe in 2024, the Democrats had to send forward their best.
That’s why Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama et al pushed hard for Biden to abandon his bid for another term. They were cognisant that the fading octogenarian wasn’t up to the task. At this juncture, though, similar doubts are surfacing as to whether Kamala Harris can pull off a victory. Some influential Democrats are reportedly voicing concerns that the accomplished woman of colour is not faring well under the media glare and that she should have picked Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to bolster her odds of prevailing in that vital state.
There are a few inconvenient truths here. First, the biggest quandaries facing the US – inflation and immigration – work against Harris. The cost of goods and services has exploded during the tenure of this administration. Plenty of Americans are legitimately pissed off and aren’t swayed by the contentions that this has affected everyone, everywhere and is easing in the US. They are not better off than they were four years ago and believe the incumbent president’s deputy is blameworthy.
In the same vein, the numbers entering the country illegally have surged dramatically with Biden/Harris in office, straining some communities and leading very many to desire a halt to immigration, temporarily or permanently. They think she is partly responsible. It is tough for Harris, who was delegated the border as an aspect of her brief, to deny all political culpability for what is objectively a mess.
She definitely didn’t aid her cause on either quagmire by commenting on ABC’s “The View” that she’d have done “not a thing” differently than President Biden. The experienced erstwhile prosecutor’s dreadful reply to a query that is unavoidably tricky for her, but to which she should have a stock response, is symptomatic of what is inescapable: Harris is just not a strong candidate.
She is poor on her feet. She struggles to answer probing questions. There is an authenticity deficiency, compounded by her flip-flops on key issues. Harris is not the nominee because she emerged from a competitive primary process in which she vanquished a field of qualified, impressive rivals. She instead benefitted from unprecedented, time-sensitive circumstances.
And regrettably for Democrats, Harris’s greatest success to date – a solid, winning performance in the debate with Trump – paid scant dividends. That any bounce was insignificant and fleeting must be incredibly deflating for liberal activists who have rallied to her and were initially ecstatic that she would be the person to finally eliminate the threat to democracy they see in Trump.
Third, on a range of topics, particularly when it comes to the culture wars, Harris is way to the left of the consensus of those who inhabit the territory that means most on 5 November. Whether it is Black Lives Matter, gender identity, what should and should not be taught in the public schools, the holiday originally intended to celebrate Christopher Columbus or a host of additional “hot button” stuff – all of which feature uniquely centrally on the agenda when ballots are cast in the US – Harris is of her hometown, San Francisco. That’s readily exploitable, to her grave detriment. Democrats more broadly are also feeling the heat on this front.
In a nutshell, then, that’s my assessment of why Harris vs Trump is on a knife edge. Harris’s acolytes and defenders may immediately retort that the above analysis is profoundly unfair to her. In a vacuum, that critique is not wholly lacking in merit. It neglects, however, certain facts. Remember: we live in the world as it is, not as we wish it were.
Yes, Harris is held to a higher standard. Yes, there are elements of racism and sexism lurking there. Yes, Trump is a bad guy, totally amoral, a convicted felon, not someone fit to occupy any elected office, never mind the presidency.
Conversely, the incontrovertible evidence is that it doesn’t matter a damn politically what Trump says or does; he plays the game by a set of rules he makes up as he goes; he has the unwavering fidelity of disciples who would literally jump from a cliff if he asked them to; and loads of quieter, self-interested, ruthlessly transactional Americans who don’t attend his rallies support him, too.
The evaluations of the polls from the two camps are fascinating. Team Trump/Vance maintain robustly that they are ahead, citing the extent to which the popularity of the ex-star of “The Apprentice” is typically underestimated, as is the unknown quantity of shy Trump voters. They are hoping that, among other demographics, an abundance of comfortable suburbanites fall into this category.
Harris/Walz allies assert that they alone have the capacity to expand the electorate and to get young, heretofore apolitical people to do their civic duty with the assistance of invaluable surrogates like former Presidents Obama and Clinton and the pop sensation, Taylor Swift. The Democrats have a superior get out the vote operation. Further, they claim that the fury of women stemming from the reversal of Roe v Wade by a US Supreme Court majority with three Trump-sponsored justices is not captured and will propel their duo over the line.
The contrasting interpretations are equally plausible. Which of them is closest to reality may tell the tale in an absolutely enthralling, immensely consequential race that seems destined for a photo finish.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a law lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with The Journal.
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Tis like watching a car crash in slow motion
@qffaffaf affrafrfraf: over, and over and over again
Good man Joe. Feed your own ego and hand Trump the presidency.
@Ger Whelan: exactly.
Yeah he’ll definitely just get sharper as time goes by, that’s how it works doesn’t it?
All joking aside, his family and those around him should be facing charges.
@marklars81: Facing charges for what? Other than the recent Hunter gun / drugs thing, what did the rest of them do? There is only one candidate in the race who is a proven sex offender and convicted felon and fraudulent liar, with plenty more charges yet to be heard.
@Kevin Collins: you need to broaden you information/news net
@Oh Mammy: I did just that recently and let me tell you that it’s a huge relief just believing whatever I want to believe and not bothering about finding reliable sources of info (i.e. having to watch them carefully over time to see how accurate & consistent they are), cross-checking info between different sources, etc. Now I can just kick back and dismiss anything that contradicts what I’ve accepted as other people just being jealous of my vast intellect and infallibility.
@Kevin Collins: Gaza ?
@Kevin Collins: plenty more charges to come, god it’s great to be on the inside track like you!
@Kevin Collins: Maybe elder abuse.
The media bear a lot of responsibility. The mainstream US media is extremely partisan . Virtually all of their coverage of Biden has been favourable, they tried to discredit anyone, even those on the left, who brought up his cognitive decline and age. Now that it can’t be denied anymore, they’ve turned on him and all of a sudden its all they talk about.
Comical. He might still be forced out.
Awful. Old men trying to hold on to power.
Reminds me of commenters here willing to support the academic Ponzi scheme where a group of dangerous modellers care nothing for society only their lucrative self-importance.
@Gerald Kelleher: Funny enough your mindless rambling reminds me of Joe Biden.
@Ger Whelan: Biden makes more sense than Gerald
@Ger Whelan: I don’t react to commenters like yourself; however, I can remind others that I know all too well that the same misguided comments directed at me are the same ones that will get people like the ex-President elected and from the same level of consideration.
@Gerald Kelleher: More useless rambling from you.
@Gearoid MacEachaidh:
The modelling community doesn’t even like you for your insignificance to them and would not even come here to engage with you, as you are just cannon fodder to them. They are people with no perceptive abilities other than to fund their lucrative agenda, which can’t even be dignified as extreme.
I come to the Journal and see a more balanced perspective emerging. Environmentalists can still have their pollution concerns, but rather than weaponising this through an ideological one-world UN government, they can demonstrate to society genuine research, which has been missing all along, for a greater appreciation of the planet.
Climate isn’t the problem; mathematical modelling is.
@Ger Whelan: Not all commenters are Royal Society rednecks with Irish names. That is the best I can do for you unless you continue to beg like so many others for a reaction in the absence of anything meaningful to say.
The playback of the experimental theorists is to get the cannon fodder to do their dirty work for them and lower the standard of consideration through slogans, reactions, dehumanisation and all the other worthless comments meant to distract from topics and ideas.
Weak men create weak societies, so while you enjoy being mediocre, others with higher considerations do not.
@Gerald Kelleher: Blah blah, Blah blah blah blah, blah blah blah, blah blah blah blah that about the jist of your rant?
@Ger Whelan:
Although young, many of you have become old men by following the imperatives of old men who do not want to give up their lucrative social station.
I do not generalise scientists as many do; I isolate experimental theorists or scientific method modellers and their toxic influence on young people. You are a victim, and your reactions mark you out that way without any glimpse of a better world than the dire conclusions of the modelling community.
Many Americans would prefer to vote for and listen to mind-numbing junk from a social psychopath than listen to a bunch of self-serving academic psychopaths who have convinced many in humanity that it can control the weather.
I wish you were young but you choose to react rather than respond. Such is a slave to old men.
@Gerald Kelleher: that was not reacting?!
@Evan Keane: Yea Gerald I’m reading the rants you post. But it’s good to see you’re not taking the bait and over reacting.
@Ger Whelan: Weak men make weak societies if that is all you can manage to take from the comments.
@Gerald Kelleher: hey you kept your rant short. So I’ll read it. No weak men say one thing and do another. Much like you on this thread. I won’t react, yet here you are reacting because you can’t help yourself.
@Ger Whelan:
I won’t say God help Ireland, just help those who appreciate that getting old to practice politics happens, but people stay young by appreciating the planet and life on it.
All these are responses to what is possible, not reactions to those who sold their youth to a subculture.
@Gearoid MacEachaidh: three Ger’s walk into a bar …
@Gerald Kelleher: Ah your back to long useless rambling again.
Darwin pegged the Irish as an unaspiring, superstitious and subservient ‘race’, and sometimes it seems the Journal and most of the commenters want to prove him correct and true.
Being slaves to a subculture that some call secularism but is really scientific method empiricism can be an unpleasant encounter but worth it when the opportunity to remove prejudice in all human enterprise is at stake.
Time for commenters to be more considerate and less reactionary.
@Gerald Kelleher: No idea what you said because I ain’t bothered to read it. But I tell you it’s a good thing you didn’t react to what I said. Otherwise we’ll be here for days
I am Democrat all day….. but he needs to be challenged.
@Sean O’Dhubhghaill: At this rate Biden is Trump’s biggest asset in his presidential campaign.
Ai Joe speaks better than real Joe. All the Best.
Is it a bird? Is it a plane? Nope, it’s Donald Trump!
If you truly want Trump to lose, you need Biden to go
@Mr Sparkle: Very true
Joe Bidens’ record as president is clear. He’s presiding over a booming economy, record jobs, etc. Even if the choice is him or a convicted criminal, sex offender, narcissistic, lying, cheating lunatic that cares for no one only himself. Joe Biden should win it hands down.
@Ian: The irony of it is that by Biden forcing people to make the decision you are asking them make will hand Trump the presidency. Trump will beat him easily and that’s why he’ll be replaced.
@Ian: if ever anybody needed proof the president runs nothing in the US, Joe Biden is that proof. They might think they are democratically electing a leader to run things but really the president these days is just a mascot. The days of real leaders like Kennedy or Roosevelt are long gone. Groups in shadows run things now.
@Ian: Yes, but at what cost. Look at their national debt. Just printing money to make the economy look good. Not just Joe, being going on since Carter. An economic disaster waiting to happen.
@Ian: His booming economy and record jobs are not making the working class Americas better off. There are hundreds of thousands of homeless Americans literally tent villages in some cities, people can’t afford the bacis. Then they see their president sending hundreds of billions to fight wars on 2 different contents while telling China that it’ll Defend Taiwan should China invade it all the while admitting the US does nto recognise Taiwan’s independence and still see it as part of China. Whereas Don Trump is saying he’ll stop all that and look after the Americans. Guess who the Americans are learning towards.
@did you every wonder: Not really. The US is the strongest of the worlds largest economies. They dominate basically every sector and will dominate future sectors too esp AI. Their demographics aren’t too bad either, more young people, better at integrating immigrants, etc. Europe is in much more danger of terminal economic decline and possibly massive social unrest in the future.
@Eddie Garvey: he wish only compos mentis between the hours of 10am to 4pm according to white house insider reports.
Away with the fairies after that. Doesn’t work wkends either. It’s a crèche.
@Sickof thisshit: I read that, had a good chuckle, it’s amazing what people will believe and accept, should be an IQ test to be allowed vote, I know primary school children with more common sense than voting adults
Booming economy? The jobs “created” are rubbish jobs. Going back to reading other sources, go to the government site and read it for yourself. It’s all in their data
Challengemehnextmothimpresidentmurica trains.
@Stephen Gaffney: Exactly. Just what I was thinking.
@Sean O’Dhubhghaill: hahahah
Hmmm… I wonder how much Trump and Putin and Xi Jinping are paying the Biden family to get Joe to stay in the race? A new conspiracy theory begins to take shape! “It’s twue, it’s twue!” As Lili Von Shtüpp might say…
The media and Democratic party have turned on Biden and people are now only noticing what was obvious for more than 4 years. The electorate are mostly dunderheads. We get the politicians we deserve. I’m not afraid of the government. I’m afraid of my brain dead neighbours. We already found out who is a functioning human during covid. Very few have changed. They only know what RTE/BBC/CNN tell them.
I guess the pro Trump are more than happy about it. Embarrassing.
I don’t think he’s getting the urgency of the problem. They need to get him out in the next week or two not a month from now.
I wouldn’t worry I’m sure he’ll have forgotten he said it tomorrow. What a state of affairs, like them or hate the the American’s have some real heavy weights of Conservative thought and all they can muster is a crook and a guy who makes it look like Jimmy Carter should get another term.
I don’t accept that Biden (at his age) should be running for re-election. That seems self-evident. However, there are two major and unique factors in play. One is that many Americans will have at least one (and most likely several) reasons why they absolutely cannot vote for Trump (reproductive rights, the Supreme Court, etc.). The other factor is that Trump is without precedent in terms of unfitness and inability to do the job and will just claim election fraud regardless of the verified results. So those are still two major reasons why it doesn’t matter about Biden in relative terms…..even though in practical terms it should. And bear in mind that Trump boasts about taking two cognitive tests…….so the first one he took didn’t dispel the reasons why he had to take the test. A cognitive test is only given if there is substantial doubt about the testee’s mental functionality.
@Numinous20111: I think only a few commenters get it. One runs on a bright future for America, while the other runs with the modelling community and dire predictions of impending planetary doom.
Running to prevent someone from staying out as they did in 2020 will not work now. With all the trappings, any type of power over society must be hard to give up, and some will do desperate things for that experience.
Like most volunteers and I, people should try doing something without financial and reputational gain and the real rewards it gives. Cut the toxic circle of funding, and the Earth-on-fire will go out. If the modelling community cares so much for humanity, let them do it as a vocation rather than a job.
I am leaving this country soon with all the memories of fair people with generous souls who have departed the land and been replaced with… what? Some still retain the traditions in music and other cultural persuits, but in a country where spirituality dies, then so does creativity eventually.
No Country for Old Men
“An aged man is but a paltry thing,
A tattered coat upon a stick, unless
Soul clap its hands and sing, and louder sing
For every tatter in its mortal dress,
Nor is there singing school but studying
Monuments of its own magnificence;
And therefore I have sailed the seas and come
To the holy city of Byzantium.” Yeats
https://www.yeatsvision.com/Mental.html
Some people are born young and stay that way, and some die when they sell their youth for a pittance.
You go Joe/Jill in your efforts to keep Hunter out of jail!
One candidate we fear, the other we belittle. Hmmm.
Two factors about Biden: His family are pushing him to rule, and his backroom boys are obviously pulling his strings. Is Biden at the helm, or simply a poster boy for unelected individuals?
How has it come to this? A 79 year old convicted felon and a liar vs an 81 year old man who can’t string a sentence together. They wouldn’t get a minimum wage job in Ireland
.
have your say