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(left to right) Tanaiste and Fianna Fail Leader Micheal Martin, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald and Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris during the final TV leaders' debate. Alamy Stock Photo

Paul Murphy Clearly, the Irish left needs to unite once and for all ahead of future elections

A week on from General Election 2024, the People Before Profit TD looks at the fragmented left and asks what it can do to change politics in the future.

“WE NEED TO end 100 years of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael rule” is how we started conversations on the doorsteps during the election. Most people we spoke to agreed. But despite agreeing, many responded, “But it’s not going to happen.”

This was the fundamental problem facing the opposition. The basic outcome — a Fianna Fáil / Fine Gael coalition propped up by someone — seemed a foregone conclusion, and the left did not present a clear alternative.

Sinn Féin’s election slogan was “Vote to Change the Government” but instead of forming a ‘left front’ with others and committing to a Left Government they went it alone and kept the option of coalition with Fianna Fáil open even though this was unpopular with their own voters. This lack of ambition added to a feeling that change was not really possible. The left must learn from this — we cannot afford to make the same mistake again.

The impact of this lack of a clear alternative is seen in lowest ever turnout of just 59.7%, But it wasn’t just that turnout was down — if it was down evenly across the board it would have no impact on the election. It was down far more in working class communities than in relatively affluent areas. And it also seems to have fallen among young people — many of whom will have emigrated since 2020. This had a crucial impact — reducing Sinn Féin’s vote share and seat total, as well as contributing to a challenging election for People Before Profit — Solidarity and the broader socialist left.

No clear path out

This change in turnout differential was captured by where the exit poll got it wrong. In 2020, the exit poll under-estimated Sinn Féin by more than the margin of error because it could not have picked up that turnout from working class communities increased. In 2024, the opposite happened. Turnout in working class communities was down, and the exit poll overstated SF’s vote by more than the margin of error.

The absence of a clear route to kicking out Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael was not the only factor. Particularly for the socialist left, we succeed electorally when there are major social movements and people experience their own power to effect change. It gives people the confidence to demand much more, and it proves the relevance of having socialist representation in the Dáil. The classic example of this in recent years is the anti-water charges movement which saw politics shift left, including in 2016 with the forerunner of PBP-Solidarity getting 3.9% and returning 6 TDs. That was alongside the election of other left wing TDs like Joan Collins, Clare Daly and Thomas Pringle.

In the last few years, there was no such equivalent movement, with the partial and important exception of Palestinian solidarity. This unfortunately did not have the same deep impact across society. The many efforts to develop a major movement on housing were not successful. The Cost of Living Coalition which did put significant numbers on the streets in advance of the budget in 2022 won important concessions in the form of once-off payments and electricity credits. Ironically, they had the effect of reducing the momentum of the campaign and that mobilisation was not repeated.

This has been compounded by the emergence of anti-asylum seeker protests and sentiment and the associated emergence of the far-right as a political force. Although the openly far-right candidates polled poorly in the elections, they did have some success in sowing distrust in Sinn Féin and the radical left. This effect was reinforced by the response of Sinn Féin. Instead of standing up to their argumentation and pointing out that this was an attempt to divide working class people and direct anger at vulnerable people instead of the rich and powerful, they partially capitulated and positioned themselves to the right of the government on asylum seekers — calling for more cuts to payments and preparing to oppose centres for asylum seekers in working class communities.

This all undermined the possibility of the re-emergence of 2020 style momentum for change and a left government.

Unity on the left

Nonetheless, things could still have been different. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are not popular. They just had their combined worst vote in electoral history. Their out-of-touch nature was encapsulated by Simon Harris’ rude engagement with Charlotte Fallon in Kanturk. The suffering of people — from the housing crisis, the health crisis and the crisis for children with additional needs — was a prevalent feature of the campaign. That this co-exists with Ireland’s status as one of the richest countries in the world is an indictment of FF and FG.

What was missing was a credible alternative. On the day before the election, Mary Lou McDonald called on Sinn Féin supporters to transfer to the Social Democrats, People Before Profit and independent candidates of the left. Gary Gannon responded for the Social Democrats, calling for their voters to transfer left too. This was very welcome — but it was too little, too late in reality.

Why did it not come much earlier — for example, when we wrote privately and publicly to these parties and others both before and after the local elections? What if, in advance of the election, Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats, People Before Profit and left independents had come together in a left front and transfer pact? If we had collectively ruled out coalition with FF or FG and instead offered the possibility of a left government based on radical policies and taking on the wealthy and corporate elites who profit from the social crises in our society.

Would we have won the election? It’s impossible to say. But I think you can confidently say it would have been a very different election campaign. The electorate would have been presented with a clear choice — continue with FF/FG or choose a left government. That would have driven up engagement, turnout and left transfers. The eventual result would have been much closer.

We can only stay in the realm of ‘what if’ for so long. Attention needs to turn to the question of ‘what now?’

The Social Democrats and Labour should not prop up Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. If they do, they will just be a new mudguard for their right-wing policies. They will deservedly face the same fate as the Green Party in the next election.

A strong left opposition is needed to what is going to be a right-wing FF/FG dominated government. That will be within the Dáil, but also crucially on the streets, in the communities and workplaces.

People Before Profit will continue to build ourselves as a principled eco-socialist party committed to people power as the way to change society. We will also continue to work with others in broad coalitions to mobilise people on housing, climate, disability justice, Palestine and many other issues.

We also want to work with others to form a left front to give people a clear governmental alternative to FF and FG rule at the next possible opportunity.

Paul Murphy is a People Before Profit TD for Dublin South West.

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    Mute qffaffaf affrafrfraf
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    Jul 8th 2024, 4:35 PM

    Tis like watching a car crash in slow motion

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    Mute Oh Mammy
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    Jul 8th 2024, 6:28 PM

    @qffaffaf affrafrfraf: over, and over and over again

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Jul 8th 2024, 4:36 PM

    Good man Joe. Feed your own ego and hand Trump the presidency.

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    Mute Fergus O'Donnell
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    Jul 8th 2024, 4:52 PM

    @Ger Whelan: exactly.

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    Mute marklars81
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    Jul 8th 2024, 4:57 PM

    Yeah he’ll definitely just get sharper as time goes by, that’s how it works doesn’t it?
    All joking aside, his family and those around him should be facing charges.

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    Mute Kevin Collins
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:06 PM

    @marklars81: Facing charges for what? Other than the recent Hunter gun / drugs thing, what did the rest of them do? There is only one candidate in the race who is a proven sex offender and convicted felon and fraudulent liar, with plenty more charges yet to be heard.

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    Mute Oh Mammy
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    Jul 8th 2024, 6:29 PM

    @Kevin Collins: you need to broaden you information/news net

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    Mute Numinous20111
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    Jul 8th 2024, 6:37 PM

    @Oh Mammy: I did just that recently and let me tell you that it’s a huge relief just believing whatever I want to believe and not bothering about finding reliable sources of info (i.e. having to watch them carefully over time to see how accurate & consistent they are), cross-checking info between different sources, etc. Now I can just kick back and dismiss anything that contradicts what I’ve accepted as other people just being jealous of my vast intellect and infallibility.

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    Mute kevin rock
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    Jul 8th 2024, 6:44 PM

    @Kevin Collins: Gaza ?

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    Mute K O
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    Jul 8th 2024, 7:34 PM

    @Kevin Collins: plenty more charges to come, god it’s great to be on the inside track like you!

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    Mute Jp Cleary
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    Jul 8th 2024, 7:44 PM

    @Kevin Collins: Maybe elder abuse.

    21
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    Mute Tom D
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:49 PM

    The media bear a lot of responsibility. The mainstream US media is extremely partisan . Virtually all of their coverage of Biden has been favourable, they tried to discredit anyone, even those on the left, who brought up his cognitive decline and age. Now that it can’t be denied anymore, they’ve turned on him and all of a sudden its all they talk about.

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    Mute Robert Bell
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    Jul 8th 2024, 4:38 PM

    Comical. He might still be forced out.

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    Mute Gerald Kelleher
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    Jul 8th 2024, 4:35 PM

    Awful. Old men trying to hold on to power.

    Reminds me of commenters here willing to support the academic Ponzi scheme where a group of dangerous modellers care nothing for society only their lucrative self-importance.

    92
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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:18 PM

    @Gerald Kelleher: Funny enough your mindless rambling reminds me of Joe Biden.

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    Mute Gearoid MacEachaidh
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:29 PM

    @Ger Whelan: Biden makes more sense than Gerald

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    Mute Gerald Kelleher
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:48 PM

    @Ger Whelan: I don’t react to commenters like yourself; however, I can remind others that I know all too well that the same misguided comments directed at me are the same ones that will get people like the ex-President elected and from the same level of consideration.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFtqbnsa8AAWq3-.jpg\

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:52 PM

    @Gerald Kelleher: More useless rambling from you.

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    Mute Gerald Kelleher
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    Jul 8th 2024, 6:10 PM

    @Gearoid MacEachaidh:

    The modelling community doesn’t even like you for your insignificance to them and would not even come here to engage with you, as you are just cannon fodder to them. They are people with no perceptive abilities other than to fund their lucrative agenda, which can’t even be dignified as extreme.

    I come to the Journal and see a more balanced perspective emerging. Environmentalists can still have their pollution concerns, but rather than weaponising this through an ideological one-world UN government, they can demonstrate to society genuine research, which has been missing all along, for a greater appreciation of the planet.

    Climate isn’t the problem; mathematical modelling is.

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    Mute Gerald Kelleher
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    Jul 8th 2024, 6:16 PM

    @Ger Whelan: Not all commenters are Royal Society rednecks with Irish names. That is the best I can do for you unless you continue to beg like so many others for a reaction in the absence of anything meaningful to say.

    The playback of the experimental theorists is to get the cannon fodder to do their dirty work for them and lower the standard of consideration through slogans, reactions, dehumanisation and all the other worthless comments meant to distract from topics and ideas.

    Weak men create weak societies, so while you enjoy being mediocre, others with higher considerations do not.

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Jul 8th 2024, 6:33 PM

    @Gerald Kelleher: Blah blah, Blah blah blah blah, blah blah blah, blah blah blah blah that about the jist of your rant?

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    Mute Gerald Kelleher
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    Jul 8th 2024, 7:01 PM

    @Ger Whelan:

    Although young, many of you have become old men by following the imperatives of old men who do not want to give up their lucrative social station.

    I do not generalise scientists as many do; I isolate experimental theorists or scientific method modellers and their toxic influence on young people. You are a victim, and your reactions mark you out that way without any glimpse of a better world than the dire conclusions of the modelling community.

    Many Americans would prefer to vote for and listen to mind-numbing junk from a social psychopath than listen to a bunch of self-serving academic psychopaths who have convinced many in humanity that it can control the weather.

    I wish you were young but you choose to react rather than respond. Such is a slave to old men.

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    Mute Evan Keane
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    Jul 8th 2024, 7:07 PM

    @Gerald Kelleher: that was not reacting?!

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Jul 8th 2024, 7:18 PM

    @Evan Keane: Yea Gerald I’m reading the rants you post. But it’s good to see you’re not taking the bait and over reacting.

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    Mute Gerald Kelleher
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    Jul 8th 2024, 7:51 PM

    @Ger Whelan: Weak men make weak societies if that is all you can manage to take from the comments.

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Jul 8th 2024, 8:31 PM

    @Gerald Kelleher: hey you kept your rant short. So I’ll read it. No weak men say one thing and do another. Much like you on this thread. I won’t react, yet here you are reacting because you can’t help yourself.

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    Mute Gerald Kelleher
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    Jul 8th 2024, 9:10 PM

    @Ger Whelan:

    I won’t say God help Ireland, just help those who appreciate that getting old to practice politics happens, but people stay young by appreciating the planet and life on it.

    All these are responses to what is possible, not reactions to those who sold their youth to a subculture.

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    Mute Shiv
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    Jul 8th 2024, 10:21 PM

    @Gearoid MacEachaidh: three Ger’s walk into a bar …

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Jul 8th 2024, 10:25 PM

    @Gerald Kelleher: Ah your back to long useless rambling again.

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    Mute Gerald Kelleher
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    Jul 8th 2024, 10:40 PM

    Darwin pegged the Irish as an unaspiring, superstitious and subservient ‘race’, and sometimes it seems the Journal and most of the commenters want to prove him correct and true.

    Being slaves to a subculture that some call secularism but is really scientific method empiricism can be an unpleasant encounter but worth it when the opportunity to remove prejudice in all human enterprise is at stake.

    Time for commenters to be more considerate and less reactionary.

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Jul 8th 2024, 11:35 PM

    @Gerald Kelleher: No idea what you said because I ain’t bothered to read it. But I tell you it’s a good thing you didn’t react to what I said. Otherwise we’ll be here for days

    9
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    Mute Sean O'Dhubhghaill
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:24 PM

    I am Democrat all day….. but he needs to be challenged.

    51
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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:47 PM

    @Sean O’Dhubhghaill: At this rate Biden is Trump’s biggest asset in his presidential campaign.

    83
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    Mute 087 bed
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:11 PM

    Ai Joe speaks better than real Joe. All the Best.

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    Mute Eric Gaffney
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    Jul 8th 2024, 4:44 PM

    Is it a bird? Is it a plane? Nope, it’s Donald Trump!

    36
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    Mute Mr Sparkle
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:41 PM

    If you truly want Trump to lose, you need Biden to go

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    Mute David O Brien
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    Jul 8th 2024, 7:22 PM

    @Mr Sparkle: Very true

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    Mute Ian
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    Jul 8th 2024, 4:57 PM

    Joe Bidens’ record as president is clear. He’s presiding over a booming economy, record jobs, etc. Even if the choice is him or a convicted criminal, sex offender, narcissistic, lying, cheating lunatic that cares for no one only himself. Joe Biden should win it hands down.

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    Mute marklars81
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:00 PM

    @Ian: The irony of it is that by Biden forcing people to make the decision you are asking them make will hand Trump the presidency. Trump will beat him easily and that’s why he’ll be replaced.

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    Mute Eddie Garvey
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:08 PM

    @Ian: if ever anybody needed proof the president runs nothing in the US, Joe Biden is that proof. They might think they are democratically electing a leader to run things but really the president these days is just a mascot. The days of real leaders like Kennedy or Roosevelt are long gone. Groups in shadows run things now.

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    Mute did you every wonder
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:29 PM

    @Ian: Yes, but at what cost. Look at their national debt. Just printing money to make the economy look good. Not just Joe, being going on since Carter. An economic disaster waiting to happen.

    33
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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:41 PM

    @Ian: His booming economy and record jobs are not making the working class Americas better off. There are hundreds of thousands of homeless Americans literally tent villages in some cities, people can’t afford the bacis. Then they see their president sending hundreds of billions to fight wars on 2 different contents while telling China that it’ll Defend Taiwan should China invade it all the while admitting the US does nto recognise Taiwan’s independence and still see it as part of China. Whereas Don Trump is saying he’ll stop all that and look after the Americans. Guess who the Americans are learning towards.

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    Mute Tom D
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:44 PM

    @did you every wonder: Not really. The US is the strongest of the worlds largest economies. They dominate basically every sector and will dominate future sectors too esp AI. Their demographics aren’t too bad either, more young people, better at integrating immigrants, etc. Europe is in much more danger of terminal economic decline and possibly massive social unrest in the future.

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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:53 PM

    @Eddie Garvey: he wish only compos mentis between the hours of 10am to 4pm according to white house insider reports.
    Away with the fairies after that. Doesn’t work wkends either. It’s a crèche.

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    Mute Eddie Garvey
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    Jul 8th 2024, 6:04 PM

    @Sickof thisshit: I read that, had a good chuckle, it’s amazing what people will believe and accept, should be an IQ test to be allowed vote, I know primary school children with more common sense than voting adults

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    Mute Oh Mammy
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    Jul 8th 2024, 7:23 PM

    Booming economy? The jobs “created” are rubbish jobs. Going back to reading other sources, go to the government site and read it for yourself. It’s all in their data

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    Mute Stephen Gaffney
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:20 PM

    Challengemehnextmothimpresidentmurica trains.

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    Mute Sean O'Dhubhghaill
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:26 PM

    @Stephen Gaffney: Exactly. Just what I was thinking.

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    Mute Noel Doherty
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    Jul 8th 2024, 8:35 PM

    @Sean O’Dhubhghaill: hahahah

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    Mute William Tallon
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:50 PM

    Hmmm… I wonder how much Trump and Putin and Xi Jinping are paying the Biden family to get Joe to stay in the race? A new conspiracy theory begins to take shape! “It’s twue, it’s twue!” As Lili Von Shtüpp might say…

    20
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    Mute Frank White
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    Jul 8th 2024, 9:02 PM

    The media and Democratic party have turned on Biden and people are now only noticing what was obvious for more than 4 years. The electorate are mostly dunderheads. We get the politicians we deserve. I’m not afraid of the government. I’m afraid of my brain dead neighbours. We already found out who is a functioning human during covid. Very few have changed. They only know what RTE/BBC/CNN tell them.

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    Mute Alex Marquis
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:33 PM

    I guess the pro Trump are more than happy about it. Embarrassing.

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    Mute Shane O Neill
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    Jul 8th 2024, 7:41 PM

    I don’t think he’s getting the urgency of the problem. They need to get him out in the next week or two not a month from now.

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    Mute Mark Anthony Savage
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    Jul 8th 2024, 5:38 PM

    I wouldn’t worry I’m sure he’ll have forgotten he said it tomorrow. What a state of affairs, like them or hate the the American’s have some real heavy weights of Conservative thought and all they can muster is a crook and a guy who makes it look like Jimmy Carter should get another term.

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    Mute Numinous20111
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    Jul 8th 2024, 6:49 PM

    I don’t accept that Biden (at his age) should be running for re-election. That seems self-evident. However, there are two major and unique factors in play. One is that many Americans will have at least one (and most likely several) reasons why they absolutely cannot vote for Trump (reproductive rights, the Supreme Court, etc.). The other factor is that Trump is without precedent in terms of unfitness and inability to do the job and will just claim election fraud regardless of the verified results. So those are still two major reasons why it doesn’t matter about Biden in relative terms…..even though in practical terms it should. And bear in mind that Trump boasts about taking two cognitive tests…….so the first one he took didn’t dispel the reasons why he had to take the test. A cognitive test is only given if there is substantial doubt about the testee’s mental functionality.

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    Mute Gerald Kelleher
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    Jul 8th 2024, 7:18 PM

    @Numinous20111: I think only a few commenters get it. One runs on a bright future for America, while the other runs with the modelling community and dire predictions of impending planetary doom.

    Running to prevent someone from staying out as they did in 2020 will not work now. With all the trappings, any type of power over society must be hard to give up, and some will do desperate things for that experience.

    Like most volunteers and I, people should try doing something without financial and reputational gain and the real rewards it gives. Cut the toxic circle of funding, and the Earth-on-fire will go out. If the modelling community cares so much for humanity, let them do it as a vocation rather than a job.

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    Mute Gerald Kelleher
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    Jul 8th 2024, 8:44 PM

    I am leaving this country soon with all the memories of fair people with generous souls who have departed the land and been replaced with… what? Some still retain the traditions in music and other cultural persuits, but in a country where spirituality dies, then so does creativity eventually.

    No Country for Old Men

    “An aged man is but a paltry thing,
    A tattered coat upon a stick, unless
    Soul clap its hands and sing, and louder sing
    For every tatter in its mortal dress,
    Nor is there singing school but studying
    Monuments of its own magnificence;
    And therefore I have sailed the seas and come
    To the holy city of Byzantium.” Yeats

    https://www.yeatsvision.com/Mental.html

    Some people are born young and stay that way, and some die when they sell their youth for a pittance.

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    Mute Pat O'Shea
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    Jul 9th 2024, 7:28 AM

    You go Joe/Jill in your efforts to keep Hunter out of jail!

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    Mute Keth Tgi
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    Jul 9th 2024, 10:42 AM

    One candidate we fear, the other we belittle. Hmmm.

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    Mute Keth Tgi
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    Jul 9th 2024, 10:47 AM

    Two factors about Biden: His family are pushing him to rule, and his backroom boys are obviously pulling his strings. Is Biden at the helm, or simply a poster boy for unelected individuals?

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    Mute Richard K
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    Jul 9th 2024, 11:01 PM

    How has it come to this? A 79 year old convicted felon and a liar vs an 81 year old man who can’t string a sentence together. They wouldn’t get a minimum wage job in Ireland

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    Jul 9th 2024, 7:42 PM

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