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I’VE HONESTLY LOST track of how many columns in this space have been dedicated to examining all of the myriad twists and turns in the protracted competition to be the 47th President of the United States. Once upon a time, I ventured that neither Joe Biden, nor his predecessor, Donald Trump, would ultimately become his party’s nominee to be commander-in-chief.
The indefatigable New Yorker possessed of boundless self-belief, whatever else one might think of him, proved me wrong, yet again. And it looked as if his proud Irish American rival would defy the critics – which he has made a habit of doing in a lengthy, distinguished career in public service – and soldier on to November.
His manifest mental and physical decline rendered his continuing untenable. An objectively horrendous, quite sad and painful to watch debate performance on 27 June ended what was an unwise bid for a second term. Speculation that there could be a fascinating, truncated fight to supplant him on the floor of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago faded swiftly. Vice President Kamala Harris was anointed the successor to her boss.
She immediately changed the dynamics of the contest and fired up progressives who, external appearances notwithstanding, were dreading the campaign ahead and fearful that the incumbent would be defeated in an Electoral College landslide. She raised an enormous amount of cash and thousands of volunteers pledged to work on her behalf. Her choice of running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, was initially well-received. The polls, which had strongly been favouring Trump, reversed course and she went up noticeably in the crucial battlegrounds. Democrats were buoyant.
But as was inevitable, the momentum and buzz propelling Harris/Walz waned. How and why are already the subjects of incessant conjecture. The scepticism and negativity emanating from certain quarters on this front will be amplified if Trump and his loyal deputy, Ohio Senator JD Vance, prevail next Tuesday. The reality is that the aggregated opinion surveys show that this is a dead heat; Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are within the statistical margin of error.
The polls were wrong in 2016 and 2020 when they underestimated Trump, and in the 2022 midterms, when, post the reversal of Roe vs Wade, they still overegged the so-called “red wave” that would provide the GOP with comfortable congressional majorities. Each side cites those miscalculations and asserts that, if precedent is any dictate, they are in a better position than their adversary. Democratic strategists also claim that new, young voters, spurred on by celebrity endorsements, will cast ballots in substantial numbers for their standard bearers in the places that mean most.
Moving past the spin, it is a fact that recent happenings have been in keeping with the topsy-turvy nature of what is invariably described as a hugely consequential election. The racist and misogynistic “humour” at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally was ugly and potentially damaging to his chances. Whoever thought it would be a good idea to have a comedian disparage Puerto Rico specifically and Latinos generally warrants being fired by the ex-star of The Apprentice. They constitute a vital element in the unlikely coalition he has assembled.
Social and traditional media abounded with the testimonies of Hispanic Americans who had been leaning toward Trump, but were so offended that they had either disavowed their backing or had morphed into being unenthused and undecided. Given how close things are, pundits hypothesised that the anger provoked by what was said in the Big Apple at a very late stage could be significant.
This badly needed political boost for Team Harris, however, was arguably undone in short order by President Biden’s subsequent comment: “The only garbage I see out there is his [Trump’s] supporters.” While his staunch allies and other leading Democrats have simultaneously sought to clarify that Biden misspoke and that they do not wish to be associated with these words, it was a gift to Trump.
And unsurprisingly, he has sought to milk the soundbite for all it’s worth. He told his adherents that this purported gaffe was actually worse than Hillary Clinton’s infamous “basket of deplorables” remark in that it revealed what preachy leftists truly think of tens of millions of Americans. He then requisitioned a waste disposal truck with Trump/Vance emblazoned on it and delivered a fiery speech to an energised audience in a hi-vis jacket.
At any rate, these two unforced blunders will be fresh in the minds of those citizens who haven’t availed of the option to vote early. Their impact is obviously immeasurable. The global community of stakeholders in the outcome is nonetheless asking the same question: What should we expect next week?
It seems to me that the following are three eminently plausible scenarios. First is that Harris vs Trump does turn out to be as tight as is widely forecast. Accordingly, little is established definitively on 6 November; recounts are required in multiple of the key states; lawyers affiliated to the two parties dig in for courtroom jousts; and the threat of civil unrest regrettably looms.
Second is that the polls are incorrect – perhaps just slightly – and it breaks narrowly, though conclusively in the Electoral College, for Trump. Third is the same, except that it goes in the opposite direction, for Harris. In these latter two, the winner will be identified relatively quickly. When I write here on Wednesday, the picture will be somewhat or a lot clearer.
I have to repeat my prior admonition that making predictions in this unprecedented race is a fool’s errand. God only knows how events will unfold. And I have to reiterate another warning as the finish line approaches that I’ve issued on more than one occasion: Buckle up, for the final time, because this wild ride isn’t over yet.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie. He will be a featured analyst on RTÉ television and radio as results come in on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
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