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Sinn Féin candidate Cathleen Carney Boud canvassing in Dublin North West on Thursday. Ciara Ní Dhálaigh

This constituency had the biggest swing to Sinn Féin in 2020 - how will it vote now?

Housing is the top issue in Dublin North West, and Sinn Féin hopes it can turn people’s anger into votes.

A CHORUS OF ‘Come Out Ye Black and Tans’ was how veteran Sinn Féin politician Dessie Ellis and his supporters celebrated on 9 February 2020 after he topped the poll by a spectacular margin in Dublin North West.

Almost one in two voters in the suburban constituency had given Ellis their first preference vote.

Now though, nationally, Sinn Féin is polling several points behind where it stood in early 2020 (and several points behind Fine Gael and, though by a smaller margin, Fianna Fáil). Sinn Féin had a terrible local election, with just 12% of voters giving the party their number one.

Some voters who were among the 44% in Dublin North West to give Sinn Féin their first preference in 2020 told The Journal they won’t do so again on 29 November. 

However, there was a warm reception for Ellis’s running mate, Cathleen Carney Boud, on several doorsteps on Thursday evening, especially among voters for whom housing and homelessness are top concerns – and it was clear there are plenty of those.

Carney Boud and her team were quietly confident that the party is bouncing back from the disastrous locals – maybe not to 2020 levels of support, but certainly to a point where there is a lot for Sinn Féin to play for in the remaining two weeks of campaigning.

Housing and immigration

Spanning suburbs mostly built in the 1950s and 1960s, Dublin North West is a mix of working and middle-class communities across Finglas, Ballymun, Whitehall, Beaumont and Santry, as well as parts of Glasnevin.

The slate of candidates in the three-seater includes sitting TD Paul McAuliffe of Fianna Fáil and former TD Noel Rock, who hopes to break back in for Fine Gael as part of a ‘Harris hop’ in the capital. Rory Hearne of the Social Democrats will try to retain Róisín Shortall’s long held seat for his party as she retires.

Two sitting councillors, anti-immigration Independent Gavin Pepper and Conor Reddy of People Before Profit (the last candidate eliminated in 2020, when he benefited from Ellis’s surplus), are also running. On Newstalk this week, broadcaster and former TD Ivan Yates called it for Ellis, McAuliffe and Reddy.

All the candidates running here and across the country are in The Journal’s candidate database. 

Waiting lists for healthcare on the public system and the hoops people must jump through to obtain state assistance such as carers’ allowance were among the issues raised by voters when The Journal visited the constituency this week to take the temperature. 

Recent scandals surrounding Sinn Féin – such as former Belfast press officer Michael McMonagle being jailed for nine months for child sex offences, or former Senator Niall Ó Donnaghaile being revealed as having sent inappropriate texts to a teenager - have not cut through with voters.

Rather, bread and butter issues are to the fore as the election approaches.

Housing and homelessness were undoubtedly the issues raised most often by voters, young and old.

A much smaller proportion of voters expressed frustration at immigration, in particular of young men, into Ireland and into their area; some of these voters planned to vote for Sinn Féin and some didn’t.

For some, immigration and housing are linked as issues, with inward migration perceived as exacerbating the scarcity of homes. Some people expressed the view that not enough has been done to help homeless Irish people. 

Among those who voted Sinn Féin last time but are not planning to do so now, there was also a more generalised sense of disaffection and disillusion with the political establishment – and a perception that Sinn Féin is part of it.

“They’re all the same,” was a sentiment raised again and again.

This is a problem for Sinn Féin.

It was notable that Carney Boud’s key message on the doorsteps, repeated with great frequency, was: “We’re not in government.” 

Sometimes she said this unprompted, and sometimes she said it after listening to the issues people raised, such as inadequate support for people with additional needs and their carers.

One woman, who struggled to find a school place for her son, asked Carney Boud what Mary Lou was doing.

“She’s not in government,” Carney Boud said. “We haven’t been given a chance to put in our plan.”

But the woman felt that, “at the end of the day, you’re all the same”.

After a back and forth, with Carney Boud explaining that Sinn Féin TDs do not hold power, the woman conceded she might “give Dessie the number one – ah I’m only joking”.

Carney Boud received a couple of hard ‘no’s on the doorsteps, but these were outnumbered by those who were keeping their cards close to their chests, and by several firm promises of a first preference vote.

One woman broke down in tears as she told Carney Boud of spending almost 20 years on the housing list and struggling to get a permanent home for her children. 

An older voter proved a tougher customer, however, asking Carney Boud straight off the bat: “Where are you going to get this €39bn to build all these houses?” 

“The issue is not money, the issue is political will. There’s plenty of money in the country,” Carney Boud replied, adding that housing, once built, is a “once off measure” and Sinn Féin’s plans are “costed”.

“I’m just a bit sceptical about all of that, to be honest with you, because you’ve got to have the budget for the day-to-day running of the country as well,” the man responded.

Sinn Féin not being in government presents it with a twofold problem. While some voters perceive the party as being an ineffective section of the establishment, because it has many elected TDs, others, including this man, expressed nervousness about a Sinn Féin government given it has no experience of power this side of the border.

IMG_4143 Election posters outside a derelict pub in Finglas village. The Journal The Journal

Talking to voters

When The Journal took to the streets in Dublin North West to speak to voters face to face, only a tiny minority indicated they don’t generally vote and don’t plan to this time. Most people were engaged and informed. 

At the Omni shopping centre in Santry, Tara Curtis, a young woman from Ballymun, said Sinn Féin’s proposal to cut USC on the first €45,000 of income would be important for working class people. She said she needs to do more research but is leaning towards voting for Sinn Féin.

A young couple, Jennifer McKeown and Martin Cassin, said they plan to vote for Sinn Féin, with housing the issue uppermost in their minds. They live in a HAP property and expect to remain there, though they both have good jobs, while covering creche fees as well is “a nightmare”.

“It’s time for a change,” Cassin said.

Housing is an issue that evokes anger and frustration among the older generation too.

In Finglas Village, Ellis’s constituency office is directly below a large former office block, Raven House, which is currently being redeveloped as 37 apartments.

Looking at the scaffolding from the nearby taxi rank, taxi driver Derek Russell predicted: “It’ll be owned by vulture funds and pension funds, so you can’t buy apartments, you have to rent.”

He said that while 20% of the scheme would probably be reserved for social housing, people would have to be already in receipt of housing assistance payment (HAP) to access it, and it was “just horrible” for young people to have to go through that. He added that it was much too difficult for young people to get a mortgage.

Russell voted for Sinn Féin last time but doesn’t plan to do so this time. He doesn’t think that Sinn Féin in government would be very different to the current administration.

“When they get into government they’ll do the same as every other politician and say: ‘Oh we can’t do this, we can’t do that. What we said we would do, we can’t',” he said.

A few people indicated they will probably vote for Fianna Fáil; while some described themselves as lifelong supporters of the party, others were coming back after voting for Sinn Féin in 2020.

Threat from Independents

In the local elections, many people who wanted to turn away from the parties of government opted for Independents rather than Sinn Féin. As poor results rolled in from across the country on 9 June, party leader Mary Lou McDonald noted “frustration” and “anger” with government had translated into votes for Independents.

Talking to voters in Finglas village last week, it was clear that this remains a risk to the party’s support.

Denise Kearney, who voted Sinn Féin last time, said she won’t vote for them or indeed any of the larger parties this time, and instead plans to vote Independent. 

“I felt we needed change, and that’s what they [Sinn Féin] pushed – they pushed for change. Their ideologies lately, they seem to be cornered against the Irish people,” she said.

Pat Lynch voted for anti-immigration candidate Independent Gavin Pepper in the local elections and will vote for him again in the general election. Pepper was elected to Dublin City Council in the Ballymun-Finglas ward in June.

Lynch said he works long hours and has to pay his own medical bills, whereas people are “coming in off the boat and given medical cards – that’s why I’m going Independent”.

He said when Sinn Féin knocked on his door in recent days he “ran them”.

Carney Boud said both she and Ellis are not hearing as much about immigration from voters as they did in the local elections. 

“It’s calmed down. I think people are listening more and not jumping to conclusions with all the social media stuff that was rampant several months ago,” she said.

Disappointment in 2020 

Sinn Féin enjoyed an 11-point swing nationally in 2020 relative to the previous general election in 2016 – but even by this standard the party’s performance in Dublin North West was outstanding, with a 23.9 point surge.

This was the biggest swing to Sinn Féin nationally, but there was disappointment for the party here as elsewhere.

sinn fein 993_90591389 Dessie Ellis (fifth from left), Cathleen Carney Boud (green coat) and supporters celebrate his election in February 2020. RollingNews.ie RollingNews.ie

Had the party given Ellis a running mate, he or she could have taken a second seat. Ellis’s first preferences alone represented almost 1.8 quotas.

There were three other Dublin constituencies with a swing of over 20 points to Sinn Féin, but the party only ran a second candidate and took a second seat in one of them, Dublin Mid-West.

In constituencies including Dublin South-West, Waterford and Mary Lou McDonald’s Dublin Central the party squandered huge first preference votes, and a shot at government, with its conservative strategy.

It will be hoping it can turn public anger and frustration at the housing crisis into enough votes this time to give it a another chance. 

Carney Boud acknowledged that the party has not been doing as well as it was in opinion polls, but said that even if Sinn Féin were being “cautious” in Dublin North West, “you would probably still run two here”.

“We’re quite positive with the feedback in the last week, so we’ll see how it goes,” she said. “A week is a long time in politics. You never know what comes around the corner.”

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61 Comments
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    Mute SV3tN8M4
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    Nov 16th 2024, 12:46 AM

    This Constituency is going to deliver some shock to the main parties, as a result of their failures on Housing, Immigration & Crime, Communities abandoned by Govt who concentrated on Developers, REIT’S, Vulture Funds, Investment Funds, Bankers & those arriving here weekly in record numbers aided by the flood of NGO’s & a Woke Govt, people are going to vent their anger just like the Referendums & Govt & MSM can’t admit it or see it coming.

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    Mute Finian McG
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    Nov 16th 2024, 1:34 AM

    @SV3tN8M4: Well said! Charity begins at home! Time the woke NGO’s and All the established parties learnt that!

    131
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    Mute Finian McG
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    Nov 16th 2024, 2:04 AM

    @SV3tN8M4: vote Independent or a Nationalist candidate to end this madness. You can see government policy start to change in the last year all around Europe just because of even the existence of a Nationalist voice. That’s without ever even getting into power!

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    Mute Ian
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    Nov 16th 2024, 2:10 AM

    @Finian McG: get fked. Nazionalist skum need to be shoved back into their hate filled bullshyte box from where they crawled out from.

    44
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    Mute Finian McG
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    Nov 16th 2024, 2:23 AM

    @Ian: very unwoke of you Ian :) Anyway, you and your blue haired vegan army won’t do it lol! Find a bin and get in!

    51
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    Mute Paul M Doe
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    Nov 16th 2024, 3:06 AM

    Remember to give the evil shinners absolute hell on the doorsteps and not a single vote :)

    50
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    Mute Jim Ryan
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    Nov 16th 2024, 9:25 AM

    @SV3tN8M4: All the outfits such as Refugee Council of Ireland , Migrants Rights Association and IPO Offices who help refugees and asylum seekers need to be shut down permanently . All refugees and all asylum seekers need to be deported ASAP with no exceptions and no excuses .

    54
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    Mute Nemethon
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:05 AM

    @SV3tN8M4: I love your optimism

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:15 AM

    @SV3tN8M4: strange comment about the MSM given the article that you’re commenting on

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    Mute Brian D'Arcy
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:45 AM

    @SV3tN8M4: Amazing how nobody else talks about immigration except for the far right, doing jobs that your supporters won’t do, even if they have a doctorate. Some Irish could learn from them but bring in the immigrants and deport the racists.

    29
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    Mute Simon Carr
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    Nov 16th 2024, 1:14 AM

    As long as the Dublin constituencies don’t foist the green party on the rest of us again.

    148
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    Mute F1rYnpWc
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    Nov 16th 2024, 12:04 PM

    @Simon Carr: I’d much rather voters not return a FF/FG led govt. A change of govt is possible. Vote SF/Inds/small parties

    35
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    Mute Anthony Curran
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    Nov 16th 2024, 12:20 AM

    A vote for the Nazional Party is a vote for FF/FG. Use your vote wisely. Vote for the one party that can deliver change. Vote Sinn Féin.

    97
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    Mute Finian McG
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    Nov 16th 2024, 1:31 AM

    @Anthony Curran: No thanks. FFG filled Ireland with Ukrainian refugees. SF will fill Ireland with Palestinian refugees. We need a total ban on asylum seekers (like Poland) until every single Irish homeless person has a proper home, not some crappy b&b or living with their parents.

    139
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    Mute Finian McG
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    Nov 16th 2024, 1:57 AM

    @Finian McG: btw, Ireland can still help Palestinians by contributing to the cost of setting up refugee camps in the closest safe Arab country and send out our NGOs to run them. Let’s see how commited to the cause the woke NGOs are then!

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    Mute Paul M Doe
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    Nov 16th 2024, 1:58 AM

    @Anthony Curran: SF and their supporters are morally bankrupt. SF are a cancer

    46
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    Mute Ian
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    Nov 16th 2024, 2:08 AM

    @Finian McG: Another eejit throwing out woke when they don’t know what it means.

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    Mute Finian McG
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    Nov 16th 2024, 2:16 AM

    @Ian: woke = stupid

    47
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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Nov 16th 2024, 4:17 AM

    @Anthony Curran: Not a chance I’d ever vote for SF

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    Mute Anthony Curran
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    Nov 16th 2024, 8:36 AM

    @Finian McG: You must be woke if that’s what it means

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    Mute North Phone Bowe
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    Nov 16th 2024, 12:27 PM

    @Finian McG: so you support ethnic cleansing by proposing the the Palestinian people are forced from there homelands to refugee camps, but so long as you have zero responsibility towards those refugees. Plain simple Zionist fascism in a single paragraph.

    28
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    Mute SV3tN8M4
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    Nov 16th 2024, 12:49 AM

    Shameful to, when you read the article on how those with Intellectual Disabilities are being looked after, when we have Micheal Martin & Simon Harris going around shamelessly lying & making empty promises they won’t keep, indicative of our Govt when the weakest in society are abandoned by them.

    139
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    Mute Paul M Doe
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    Nov 16th 2024, 3:09 AM

    Why are SF/IRA not wearing their Hamas tea towels on any of the posters

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    Mute Finian McG
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    Nov 16th 2024, 3:21 AM

    @Paul M Doe: it’s because of their fake new-found ‘get tough on immigration’ stance… Mary Lou McBurqa & her bosses trying to pretend they wouldn’t flood the country with Hamas/Hezbollah lunatics if they were given half a chance.

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    Mute Finian McG
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    Nov 16th 2024, 5:08 AM

    @Finian McG: and by Mary Lou’s ‘bosses’…look who travelled from Northern Ireland to Laois two weeks ago to decide who Brian Stanley’s replacement would be…Sean Hughes ‘the Surgeon’ from South Armagh and Andrew McCartney from Derry.

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    Nov 16th 2024, 9:52 AM

    @Finian McG: The smell of YFG of ye

    34
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    Mute Brian D'Arcy
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:28 AM

    @Paul M Doe: https://www.vox.com/2017/12/18/10660648/jesus-in-islam-muslims-believe-christmas-quran
    Obviously the message of Jesus is neglected by you and your colleagues in hate

    25
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    Mute Anthony Curran
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    Nov 16th 2024, 12:23 AM

    If only there was a budget surplus available!

    Staff at day centre have to boil kettle to bathe service users with intellectual disabilities https://jrnl.ie/6540648

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    Mute Michael Andrews
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    Nov 16th 2024, 1:26 AM

    One thing is for certain the leadership has reacted decisivey and truthfully in cleaning up the problems that occurred recently, No doubting it’s a huge task for the party after the yrs of dishonesty and corruption that has brought the country to its present situation. . Their politicians are hugely enthusiastic in their roles beit in housing, health, policing and especially the betterment of living in a Country that can attract our best and brightest back to share the skills they used in countries they emigrated to not because they wanted to but had no choice because of tired and blinkered politics for 100 yrs led by FFG that have an agenda to marry each other in order to prevent Sinn Fein from ever holding power. We need to change. Vote SF and get the ball rolling for a new start.

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    Mute Paul M Doe
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    Nov 16th 2024, 2:01 AM

    @Michael Andrews: you shinners hate democracy lol

    48
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    Mute Finian McG
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    Nov 16th 2024, 2:36 AM

    @Michael Andrews: a vote for Sharia Fein is a vote for the Islamifacation of Ireland. Vote for an Independent or Nationalist candidate to end this madness!!!

    49
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    Mute Chutes
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    Nov 16th 2024, 3:12 AM

    Until we tax wealth to recover the money the rich took from us, we won’t have the money we need to fulfill all the promises!!
    https://greenlens.ie/2024/11/13/reimagining-ireland-taxing-wealth-to-rebuild-society/

    31
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    Mute Cole Palmer
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:14 AM

    @Chutes: how could they take wealth that you never had in the first place? You have always been broke and always will wit that attitude

    8
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    Mute Brian D'Arcy
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:33 AM

    @Cole Palmer: Ha ha, of course a fake identity using a Chelsea and England players name speaks the truth ha ha, hilarious how none of you are brave enough to use your real names, easier in the shadows to spread your toxic message. Tell me about Irish emigration and how it sustained people here for well over a century, would you call them economic migrants?

    24
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    Mute Mary Kelly
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    Nov 16th 2024, 8:59 AM

    The response of Sinn Fein saying we are not in government is insulting to voters. They have not provided an adequate opposition, they stayed quiet on many issues for so long, for months they said nothing on the immigration issue, wanting to be populist. Also people can see through their budgets and costing of their promises.

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    Mute Brian D'Arcy
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:43 AM

    @Mary Kelly: They are not in government, they were not quiet on Ukrainians coming in and yet were called sectarian, where were you then? You see, 100,000 was far too many only for Varadkar’s vanity in the light of the rest of the world, inviting them in during a housing crisis. You might to look at Irish emigration over the past 100 hundred years but be careful, you might end up hitting and Irish person with your bigotry and hatred.

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    Mute Vincent Alexander
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    Nov 16th 2024, 1:02 PM

    @Brian D’Arcy: SF are in government in the North. What have they achieved there other than stir up controversy with dual signage. There are problems there with housing, health and a big problem with pollution. SF is a populist Northern party and nothing else.

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    Mute Paul
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    Nov 16th 2024, 2:04 AM

    And just like that the left don’t care about kids repaid by IRA members

    32
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    Mute Ian
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    Nov 16th 2024, 2:11 AM

    @Paul: what? Are you utterly dense or just really dense unbeknownst to yourself?

    39
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    Mute Brian D'Arcy
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:39 AM

    @Ian: both

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    Mute William Tallon
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    Nov 16th 2024, 12:30 AM

    Presumably, they’ll vote as they see fit on the day…

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    Mute Tired Jim
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    Nov 16th 2024, 12:29 AM

    FG have my votes 1,2 and 3

    25
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    Mute tom o reilly
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    Nov 16th 2024, 12:42 AM

    @Tired Jim: Tired jim is just one account from this multi account troll . Read any of the Paul m doe (william slevin / fintan pox / john doe / john m doe / john p doe /ulysses / exhausted jim / tired jim / john jon / lefty tears / lefty cries and dozens more troll accounts ) and you will see the quality of his comments, he has never added anything constructive or of any merit to any conversation on this platform. He has been banned on many occasions for good reason.
    On one hand , it is pitiful to think how someone’s life choices have led them to be this desperate for attention , while on the other hand it is easy to see that he is so immature that nobody will interact with him in the real world.

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    Mute CP
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    Nov 16th 2024, 1:29 AM

    @tom o reilly: I’m amazed they are not on here yet repeating the same crap they always do, ruining every comment thread

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    Mute Paul M Doe
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    Nov 16th 2024, 2:00 AM

    @Tired Jim: FG are the only logical voice. The peoples party :)

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    Mute wwvCLOuF
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:24 AM

    @tom o reilly: Very Well said. Thought “tired jim” was a young lad (which kinda excuses the attn seeking) but I fear he is the multi troll middle aged waster he portrays. Imagine living your life this way.

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    Mute DJ D
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    Nov 16th 2024, 12:01 PM

    @CP: I called this out over Buster Lawless last night having so many accounts like the 1 mentioned, Frank McCarthy, Marvin Dollery etc all replying to himself and constantly ruining threads. He is a nuisance and surely something can be done to get him and that other half wit Tired Jim off the Journal permanently??

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    Mute Paul M Doe
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    Nov 16th 2024, 2:01 AM

    What would bobby Sandwiches and the slimfast gang make of SF today lol

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    Mute Cole Palmer
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:13 AM

    @Paul M Doe: he would get a gun a blow his own head off.

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    Mute Darth O'Leary
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:36 AM

    @Cole Palmer: Who are you two fine upstanding gentlemen voting for, pray tell

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    Mute Brian D'Arcy
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:38 AM

    @Paul M Doe: Your comment is astounding and that is the best you have. I’d imagine Bobby Sands would ve proud that those in the north no longer have to fight a sectarian state backed by Britain to allow Republicans into the corridors of power. Wgat would Enoch Powell make of you, a politician from the north who sought division on the island of Ireland. As vile as he was, the likes of you and your gang are just pound shop Enoch Powell’s, a British mentality lost in Ireland, a country of emigrants. Oh, sorry, except among Loyalists who you proudly stood beside.

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    Mute frank dowling
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    Nov 16th 2024, 8:38 AM

    The Shinners are shady. Full stop !

    24
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    Mute Brian D'Arcy
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:30 AM

    @frank dowling: Well if you say so with absolitely no evidence to back up your opinion. Sadly people like you are taken seriously as the far right seek to eradicate facts in place of opinion and they have a platform for it in X.

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    Mute Dominic Leleu
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    Nov 16th 2024, 8:35 AM

    not voting for a party that is proposing discrimination for EU citizens. SF woke party missed it again.

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    Mute Brian D'Arcy
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:54 AM

    Unsurprising the far right commenting on this, that’s all they have, tyey attack, attack, attack and offer zero preying onnthe young abd disaffected as if they’ll help them. Ireland was one of the poorest countries in europe which saw massive emigration, something that they won’t tell people and now we’re rich and paying for immigrants, we are not rich, that us a tiny proportion of Ireland theough wealth inequality with us placed 4th in Europe, we are now number nine in world tax havens. I’ll gladly pay to help immigrants to set up a new life here, why won’t the rich who are at the heart of the far right? Check people coming here, good, we can send the fascists home protesting about immigration and pretending to be Irish and for democracy. Fascism is anything but about democracy.

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    Mute Radek War
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    Nov 16th 2024, 8:49 AM

    Can someone define woke?

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    Mute Dominic Leleu
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    Nov 16th 2024, 9:37 AM

    @Radek War: Google it and make your own mind.
    for me that’s going with the wind, fashion, with the popular elitist talks… corporation bs at its best. look further the bs and think for yourself about what that all want at the end. example ? look why all the parties have said yes to the referendum and the people said no.

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    Mute Tony Gleeson
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:04 AM

    @pensioner who paid prsi and tax all there life living on the bread line

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    Mute Brian D'Arcy
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    Nov 16th 2024, 10:29 AM

    @Radek War: So they can’t define it Radek, typical

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    Mute Brian D'Arcy
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    Nov 16th 2024, 3:36 PM

    Remember when the media ignored the abuse of cancer survivor Carney-Boud overlooked because Reilly claimed that she was attacked by a member of Ellis’s family that had nothing to do with Sinn Féin, her own words and the media piled on against Sinn Féin, ignoring anything that stood in their way of condemning Sinn Féin. Ellis made sure that she didn’t get away with abuse meted out to Carney-Boud. The media is as big an enemy to the opposition as the government are and yet they demand no consequences for false and inaccurate reporting, if you’re willing to do it then you should be willing to take the consequences for your actions.

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-bullying-row-escalates-amid-claims-and-counterclaims-after-noeleen-reilly-resigns/36568613.html

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    Mute Hotirish
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    Nov 16th 2024, 8:16 PM

    Swing back. They’ve been badly let down by Mary Lou & her iffy crew.

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