FORMER BRAZILIAN PRESIDENT Jair Bolsonaro will test his political strength today with demonstrations in the country’s main cities, days before the Supreme Court decides whether he is guilty of attempting a coup.

The far-right leader, also a former army captain, risks up to 43 years in prison if convicted of attempting to cling to power after losing 2022 elections to his leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

The court is set to deliver its verdict next week in a case which has sparked the ire of US President Donald Trump, an ally of Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro, who has been under house arrest since August, will be the absent protagonist of the Independence Day events calling for an amnesty for hundreds of his supporters who were convicted over the 8 January, 2023 storming of the Supreme Court, presidential palace and Congress.

The “Bolsonaristas” hope Congress will vote for an amnesty which could also extend to the former president even if he is convicted.

Bolsonaro was in the United States at the time but is accused of inciting the rioters, who called for the military to depose Lula a week after his return to power.

Bolsonaro’s allies have organized rallies for Sunday under the slogan “Brazil Reacts,” with events starting in Rio de Janeiro before the main demonstration Sunday afternoon in Sao Paulo on Avenida Paulista.

Ultra-conservative evangelical pastor Silas Malafaia, the event sponsor, and several right-wing presidential candidates will attend, including Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, viewed as Bolsonaro’s potential successor and a key amnesty proponent.

Bolsonaro, barred from running until 2030 for casting doubt on Brazil’s voting system without evidence, maintains his innocence and claims political persecution.

On Independence Day, President Lula will lead the traditional official parade in Brasilia under this year’s motto “Sovereign Brazil,” following punitive 50 percent US tariffs imposed by Trump, who has alleged a “witch hunt” of Bolsonaro.

Authorities strengthened parade security with 2,000 officers deployed and additional troops on standby, Brasilia Military Police confirmed.

Lula, 79, who plans to seek reelection in 2026, warned this week of amnesty risks if the issue reaches Congress.

“It’s a battle that must also be fought by the people,” he said.

Chamber of Deputies President Hugo Motta said “there is still no decision” on the amnesty but acknowledged intensified negotiations in recent days to bring the issue before Congress.

© AFP 2025