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Dublin: 14 °C Monday 20 May, 2013

ESRI paper which said many would be better off on dole withdrawn

In an unprecedented step, the widely cited thinktank has withdrawn a working paper which said that as many as 44 per cent of people with children would be better off on the dole than working.

File photo
File photo
Image: Niall Carson/PA Wire

A PAPER WHICH said that as many as 44 per cent of people with children would be better off on the dole rather than working has been withdrawn by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

In an unprecedented step, the institute said in a statement that ‘The Costs of Working in Ireland’ working paper, was issued as a “work-in-progress document” and should not be regarded as an ESRI report.

The paper which was co-authored by Professor RichardTol - a former employee at the ERSI who now works in the UK - was being withdrawn because of concern that it could mislead the public, the thinktank said.

A statement said: “The decision to withdraw the paper has been made as it has emerged that the underlying analysis requires major revision and that the paper’s estimates overstate the numbers of people who would be better off on the dole than in work.”

The working paper – which at the time of writing is still uploaded on the ESRI website – said that the cost of working in Ireland is around €140 per week or €7,000 annually for people without children which increases to €9,000 per year for a family with children.

It suggested that for around 15 per cent of people without children and 44 per cent of people with children would be better off not working given the costs involved with working including transport, childcare costs which are among the most expensive in the Europe, and clothing.

The working paper was criticised in many quarters with the Irish National Organistion of the Unemployed (INOU) questioning its conclusions and some of the data the paper used and did not use.

“While the paper usefully highlights the cost of going to work, the unemployment crisis facing Ireland needs to be addressed as a matter of urgency,” the organisation said in a statement.

“It requires the creation of decent jobs that ensure an acceptable standard of living; and the creation of an entitlement and employment service that really strives to support unemployed people to make the transition from welfare to work in a constructive manner.”

Sinn Féin called for the paper to be withdrawn while the government, through the Department of Social Proection, siad that the great majority of people on the Live Register had a financial incentive to be working.

The working paper’s findings would appear to contradict an ESRI report released last October which said that just three per cent of people earn more on social welfare than they would in employment.

The ESRI said that it understood that Tol, who now works at the University of Sussex and criticised the thinktank when he left it at the turn of the year, is now planning to revise the working paper.

So far there has been no comment from Tol beyond what he tweeted this afternoon: “On holiday and every radio station in Ireland wants to talk to me.”

Earlier: Many would be better off on the dole rather than working, says ESRI

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Comments (69 Comments)

  • I’ve two children and I’m on “temporary leave” from my job, as it stands now working 40hrs a week would have, after tax, paid me 20-30 euro less than I receive on the dole, that’s without taking into account rent supplement etc. Withdrawing this paper won’t change the facts.

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  • Anyone who is working for low pay doesn’t need any report about this, they KNOW what a struggle it is when you could just sit back and get the same money or more on the dole!

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  • On page 3 it states all data was taken from 2004/2005 CSO Household Budget Survey. Why not use the 2009/2010 survey. Surely it doesn’t take that long to crunch numbers that are already accessible?

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  • No greater example of how censorship exists and flourishes in Ireland.

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  • It kills me to think of people that consider social welfare as a career option or lifestyle choice. But this “better off on the dole” mentality is just as irritating. I have luckily never been out of work. It has given me a sense of personal achievement, pride, keeps my brain alert and challenged, has seen me meet some wonderful people and have many interesting experiences. The money I have earned has paid for my education, my home, my holidays, some of my most prized possessions, not to mention the satisfaction of having worked hard to earn them. I may be better off on the dole financially when I add up how much money I actually come home with, my outgoings, lack of energy after a particularly hard day, and time spent commuting and at work, I don’t know as it’s something I’ve never even thought to look into, but I honestly can’t say I personally would feel better off…

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  • The figures didn’t include medical card or private rent allowance (where it applies), back to school money or college fees. Childcare was way understated but lunches way over stated.

    It also did not cover the FIS which would bump up the pay of married parents at the lower end. Overall a poor document.

    Instead of averages they should produce 10 or more case studies to illustrate the difference.

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    • Exactly what I was thinking when I read that report thus morning! It’s time we scrapped this ESRI crowd! Look at how often they revise growth forecasts for a start. We’d get more accurate predictions from that Octopus they used in Germany, to predict outcomes of world cup matches, and if I’m not mistaken! He’s effin dead!!!!!

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    • Only solution to this is to drastically slash s w benefit payments. €60-70 per week on the dole Vs €300+ for a few hours work?? It’s a no brainer.

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    • random 12/06/12 #

      Is it a no brainer Gerry? You seem to be suggesting that ?60-70 per week is attractive, but I couldn’t live on that. I’d much rather do the few hours work, as would most people I think.

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    • I agree that the social welfare needs to come down but a lot of other changes need to be made first. We need to start with at the top and work our way down. How much money does our president, politicians and top paid civil servants make, including expenses?? There would be big savings there

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    • @random, yes of course it would be practically impossible to live off €60-70 a week, and I would be very sympathetic to people who are genuinely trying to seek work. However there must be an incentive to get people working and contributing to society again. I know scores of small businesses that want to hire people, but can only pay a low wage, due to the fact that they too are on the breadline, yet they are forced to compete with SW rates, loss of rent allowance, loss of medical card etc etc and as a result really struggle to recruit.

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    • @Gerry They can slash the dole when they slash the PRSI that pays for it by the same amount.

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    • @Gerry Those who claim solutions are a “no brainer” generally have failed to use their brain when thinking them up. Without exception, every cent paid in SW is spent back into the economy. Reducing it will reduce the amount of money flowing in the economy, and if we haven’t yet learned what the result of that is, it is high time we do.

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  • Don’t want the people copping on of course it’s true. This was withdrawn for political reasons only. We are at a true figure of 26% unemployment

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  • Red Ed 12/06/12 #

    Why do we need a report? It’s obvious there are some people taking advantage of the system making it tough for people without jobs to keep their heads up. I’m in a good job but there are plenty of local full time sponges out every night, living in good houses and driving nice cars. Sort out the dole cheats and leave the actual job seekers alone.

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  • For gods sake don’t let the hoards know

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  • Withdrawn for telling the truth. Yet all the optimistic stability crap was slapped on every lamppost around the country.

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  • @Mark I’d apply this to top bankers before applying it to ‘a young lad still living at home’ etc. This discussion just illustrates the perils of a biased research that sets out to show there is a lack of incentive to work. It reinforces the forces arguing for more SW cuts and more redistribution away from the poor to the rich under the pretence of targetting spongers etc

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    • You won’t ever find the ESRI or the reactionary horde ever complaining about corporate welfare, money that doesn’t always flow back into the national coffers and that dwarfs the welfare these clowns like to bleat about.

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  • u sense a whitewash herein

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  • The ESRI have shown themselves up as another paper tiger on this one.

    -If the report wasn’t complete, why was it circulated?
    -Given that anyone with half a brain would have known that the headline figure of 40% quoted was going to be subjected to fine analysis, why put it out there at all if it wasn’t correct?

    This is a whitewash, plain and simple. It remains to be seen, if it ever will, why this document has been withdrawn.

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    • Was it published/withdrawn as a cynical exercise rather than an error. Sowing a seed of miscontent among the working public to deflect attention away from other matters. Just saying.

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    • This stinks to high heaven whatever way you look at it.
      The credibility of the ERSI must be brought into question now. The credibility of a strange pack of losers in government must be questioned also.
      Either the ERSI is telling the truth and the government made them pull it,
      or the ERSI is full of shite and shouldnt be trusted with anymore of the shite they spout

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    • Dave, they get a lot of funding for these studies so there is a perverse incentive to create reports which beg …. New reports….

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    • The credibility of the ESRI has always been in question, for as long as I can remember. Compared to the UK’s Institute for Fiscal Studies, the ESRI’s output has always been jaundiced and skewed.

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  • This paper clearly hit a nerve and its obvious that the author is right in what he says, we can argue that his figures may be skewed and slightly off here and there but the backbone of his paper is never the less accurate. And this is what has scared the ever loving sh1t out of our political masters, whom, it would appear, put political pressure on the ESRI to both distance themselves from this paper, even though its hosted on their website, and at the same time discredit its author while at the same time say he will revise the paper. I wonder if anyone bothered to tell the author all these things he’s going to do. He indicated on Twitter that he’s on holiday and “every radio station in Ireland wants to talk to him”. You have to wonder if anyone else talked to him at all. Why don’t we just drop the pretense and admit it, the paper was reasonably accurate, our political masters didn’t like it and had it removed and its probably lucky for the author that he was on holiday or he’d be removed too. We do not live in a democracy, its a dictatorship.

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  • The problem with this debate is that it tends to focus on the wrong question. Instead of focusing on the ‘incentive to work’ among people already on low–pay or in poverty it should focus on (i) availability of jobs and (ii) cost of childcare. On (i) the ratio of unemployed to job vacancies is the 2nd highest among EU States for which there are data (see nerinstitute.net Quarterly Economic Facts) and on (ii) the cost is very high in Ireland. Cutting SW rates would drive more people into poverty and would further undermine domestic demand. This is the where the debate needs to be at.

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  • Panicking people will give up and quit their shit paid jobs and actually spend time with their families.. we’ve known for a long time that there is not much in the difference.. that’s why people on the dole go on holiday while we can’t afford it! That’s not factoring in cash in hand jobs either.
    Is working for pride and No money better than spending time with your kids.

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    • to quote you….thats why people on the dole go on holiday while we cant afford it!
      I havent been on holiday since 2007…..the last year I was working full time.
      Im barely scrapping by, get out one every 4-6 weeks and sick to death of applying for jobs and not even getting an acknowledgement letter or email. My local employment officer is fed up telling me that there are no courses suitable for me to put my name down for. Im going demented with not working. Am currently looking into if it is possible to offer to work unpaid for a day or two a week for a local business if it means i can fill a gap in my CV and keep my skill levels up.
      Also on a side note……being at home with your kids every day is not the same as spending time with them.
      Many parents are at home all day and others work and are at home at the weekends…….neither guarantees other than them being in proximity to their children, that they are actually spending valuable quality time with them.

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    • What a stupid remark. I can’t afford to go on holidays. I could when I was working. I can’t get a job because THERE ARE NONE. What part of that do knee-jerk reactionaries like you fail to comprehend?

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    • @Tom, I made that comment after another 12 hr shift/ 6 days a week.. and can’t afford my bills fully never mind holiday. Quite a lot of people that I know who Are unemployed do nixers/cash in hand.. giving them more money than me. FACT.
      I don’t have time for this bleeding heart nonsense… Valet cars in peoples drives if your stuck! people will pay as so busy working its one less chore they don’t have time for. Try it ..

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  • lets nail some of the blatant mistruths here ever one on the dole do not receive 188 they are not entitled to medical card free electricity etc. they are means tested and nigh on impossible to receive after a year on dole it will be cut and indeed it is made extremely hard to claim any thing and to those that criticise the people on the dole the vast majority of them were working and paying their taxes and through no fault of their own are now unemployed(there go I but for the grace of God) there is an attempt to decive the public by the government in order to drive a wedge between does lucky to work and does unemployed in order to slash and burn at will .Its not about protecting the people of this Country its about protecting the elite

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  • Skim read article. Very flawed, it’s based on averages and mathematical regression.
    It says “average” person spends 11 euro per day on lunches, that’s nonsense.
    To get to their petrol estimate you’d need to drive a 60 mile round trip. I’m sure some do but not the majority.
    The clothing expenditure is utter rubbish, 35 per week. Most people wouldn’t spend that I think. Otherwise there’d be a huge boom in clothing sales, take away lunches and petrol.

    They are right on childcare though, hugely costly.

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  • Lies, damn lies and statistics. First we got the stats now we’ll get damn lies.

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  • lets all go in the brew, it would b class. If we get a phone allowance we could all talk to Joe about how hard it is to raise kids and how theres no jobs and all and theres nuthin to do but drugs. Seriously folks, did ye not know the rock and roll was so sweet? this has been the case for years, I know lads that have been.on it since school and doing nixers. straight money is for mugs. for the record, im a tax paying mug.

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    • For the record, I’ve been a tax paying mug for decades and if you think you can lump all the unemployed together like that, then think again. Those who have lost their jobs recently won’t take kindly to such slander.

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  • So… Are we to believe that eating ‘lunch’ is limited to just those who work?

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    • No but if you look at the CSO report that this ESRI one is based on the cost of ‘lunch’ in Urban areas is grossly larger than rural. Price of a coffee & sandwich in Dublin city in some places is scandalous. I used to bring a flask and sambos from home. No extra expense that way.

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  • Chicken politicians let paranoid civil servants put the muzzle on. Ireland’s Glasnost is firmly suppressed!

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  • People need to wake up.. Id prefer to make 20 euro from honest hardwork than get a 100euro handout.. Kids or no kids wheres your pride

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    • And how would you support your kids with that 20 euro?

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    • @mrnobody Can you live and sleep peacefully with the thought of seeing your kids going to bed at night on an empty stomach!!! I should guess its very hard ya know.

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    • Lets get this straight, those who are working pay PRSI. They pay insurance contributions and receive the benefit of that insurance. Even those who move on to assistance could easily have paid more than enough PRSI while working to fund that for several years. I am not receiving handouts and I take serious issue with anyone who suggests I am.

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    • It’s that very attitude that the government relies on.

      Blackmailing the citizens into taking it up the ass, by reason on questioning their self pride.

      I presume you’re talking hypothetically as you probably have secure well paid employment and probably no dependents.

      At the moment a lot of middle class families are seeking food handouts for children as they’ve nothing to eat. I’m sure they once would have held the same views.

      Pride comes before a fall.

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    • @Tom, I’ve been paying my PRSI for nigh on 10 years and haven’t seen a red cent of it return to me or any tangibly benefit. I’ll only see it return if I’m out of work but I’m of the mindset of finding work where I can so I never ever expect to see any return in my working life.

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  • The nutty professor who wrote it. Ever wondered why he left the ESRI? More to this story than meets the eye

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  • Thumbs up

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  • for the record again tom, I clearly was not referring to those wishing to work who are unable to. I welcome your comments, but its unfortunate you failed to read mine. equally sad that as colm as you question the excessive dole payments to third and fourth generation of people who wont work, you get scolded with this bs. it is necessary to have a very frank debate on the welfare system and to correct its failings for the good of al our citizens.

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  • seemed iffy

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  • Listening to Prof Tol its clear this is a clear case of bitterness on his part. He left the ESRI under bad circumstances and is having his revenge

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  • Thumbs down

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  • Ye shouldn’t get full dole unless you really need it. There’s no way a young lad still living at home using it to buy fags and cans should get the same amount as a mother of three..

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  • Removed why??? Because the truth hurts!!!!

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