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Gallagher storms into major lead in latest opinion poll

Image: Tony Kinlan

SEAN GALLAGHER is now a clear favourite to become the next President of Ireland, according to the latest opinion poll to be published in tomorrow’s newspapers.

The Red C poll, commissioned by the Sunday Business Post, shows that Gallagher now commands the support of some 39 per cent of the public’s electorate – up by some 18 per cent on the last Red C poll published just nine days ago.

Gallagher is now 12 percentage points ahead of his nearest challenger, Labour’s Michael D Higgins, who is on 27 per cent of support – up by 2 per cent from the last poll, which had been commissioned by Paddy Power.

The pair are clearly ahead of the other five candidates, with third-placed Martin McGuinness losing three points to stand on 13 per cent – some 14 points behind the frontrunners.

Gay Mitchell’s campaign continues to flounder, with his support falling by 2 per cent to 8, while David Norris’s campaign has effectively collapsed, halving from 14 per cent to 7 in the space of a week.

The two female candidates, Mary Davis and Dana Rosemary Scallon, are now the two least popular candidates – with Davis now counting on just 4 per cent of voters, down from 9, and Scallon trailing on 2 per cent, down from 5.

Polling for this poll was undertaken between Monday and Wednesday of this week, so it does not account for how voters’ opinions may have changed as a result of Wednesday night’s RTÉ Prime Time debate.

The poll is published nine days after the Paddy Power poll, but its polling was undertaken just a week after the Paddy Power sample.

Sunday Business Post/Red C opinion poll:
(standing in Paddy Power poll from October 6 in brackets)
[standing in SBP poll on Sept 30 in square brackets]

  • Sean Gallagher - 39 (21) [11]
  • Michael D Higgins - 27 (25) [18]
  • Martin McGuinness - 13 (16) [16]
  • Gay Mitchell - 8 (10) [13]
  • David Norris - 7 (14) [21]
  • Mary Davis - 4 (9) [13]
  • Dana Rosemary Scallon - 2 (5) [6]

Caption competition: What has Sean Gallagher been betting on?

More: Gallagher: I haven’t been involved with Fianna Fáil for 18 months

Read: Dana vows to continue Áras campaign despite new allegations over family members

In full: TheJournal.ie’s coverage of the Race for the Áras

Read Next:

Comments (112 Comments)

  • John Needham 15/10/11 #
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    I’v only really being paying half attention to the election recently, any obvious reason for the swing?

    Reply
    • Maureen Kelly 15/10/11 #
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      It will have swung back by the next poll! This was taken before the Prime Time “debate” – still very difficult to believe how he has scored so high in this poll!! Some people seem to be very easily hoodwinked!!!! :(

    • Galactic Overlord 16/10/11 #
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      Am I the only one to notice that this git is a Fianna Fáil Man going under a Independent banner? How is he in the lead in the Polls? Seriously, have people forgotten already?

  • paul mulligan 15/10/11 #
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    God help us!!

    Reply
  • Patrick Coffey 15/10/11 #
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    Doesn’t he look like the child of Pope John Paul II and Mussolini in that picture?

    Reply
  • alan mulvey 15/10/11 #
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    Unbelievable result for Gallagher and fair play to him. 2 horse race now and I would be happy with either. Gay Mitchell’s performance is shocking and there may be repercussions for Enda. Selection of Mitchell was a mistake and was due to lack of coordination and influence by FG HQ

    Reply
    • Alan Mulvey 15/10/11 #
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      hey Ur not me

    • Tony Stamper 15/10/11 #
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      In Enda’s defense he was blatantly disappointed when Mitchell was picked, as were most FG one the ground members, from the ones I know.

      A lot of the people that backed Mitchell are from the real loolah* wing of FG, Brian Hayes, Lucinda Cretin, Varadkar etc etc, all staunch opponents of Kenny. Kenny will be able to castigate them for disrupting the party in last year’s heave, giving them their worst Presidential candidate on record, in a race they should have been a serious contender for and going by the above, helping FF be resurrected by Gallagher’s election, sanitizing the relationship between developers and politics once more.

      I’d say Kenny is as bout as secure as any leader could ever be.

      *as opposed to the general loohlah wing.

    • Ken Mc Fadden 15/10/11 #
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      Nothing to do with Enda, he wanted Cox 1st choice, Mairead Mc Guinness 2nd choice, FG now need Labour to win and keep coalition partners happy with tough budget soon

    • Adrian Martyn 15/10/11 #
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      Very astute observation, Tony. If there is a shift away from that side of FG as a result of this, do you see the party becoming more left-wing?

    • Tony Stamper 15/10/11 #
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      I’d see Kenny as representing the side of FG that could be described as Social/Christian democrats, the grouping that loved Garrett. The Cretins and Hayes and Varadkars are very right, they are basically people who should have joined the PD’s but who missed that boat. I think that FG will go further to the right, as a lot of the gombeen wing of FF will migrate to them. I think that Kenny will put some of the troublemakers in the back benches, he has enough choice, why put up with them trying to sabotage things any longer.

      That said, they might not if Gallagher gets elected, as it shows that they can come back, it will give them that belief.

    • alan mulvey 15/10/11 #
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      Ken The fact that Enda wanted Cox or McGuinness and couldn’t orchestrate it is a concern surely

    • Adrian Martyn 15/10/11 #
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      @Tony – thanks for the reply. Thoughtful as always.

      “a lot of the gombeen wing of FF will migrate to them.” Possibly, but that might underestimate just how hard the ‘auld divide’ between the two partys are at that level. I know of people in both last elections who were FF and refused to vote FG because “my parents/grandparents would turn in their grave.” Unbelievable, but true.

      As I don’t have a problem with real Socialists, real Christians, or real Democrats, then that would be a move I’d like to see. Surely if Mitchell loses it would give Enda all the ammunition he needs?

    • Paul Anthony Ward 15/10/11 #
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      @Tony: The fact that you seem to be inferring Fianna Fáil is more to the Right of Fine Gael is patently false & betrays a certain ignorance of Irish politics…

    • Seamus Ryan 15/10/11 #
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      That’s the thing Paul, Tony’s quite correct. There’s one wing of FG that’s to the left of FF and another that’s firmly to the right of FF. He’s also bang on the money as to where that right wing would have gone if the PDs still existed.

  • Ronan McDonnell 15/10/11 #
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    I can’t believe we are going to vote in a FF stooge.

    Reply
    • Alex simon 15/10/11 #
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      Was he a FF TD? Councilar or senator?

    • Conor Joseph Ryan 15/10/11 #
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      He was a FF National Executive – no small role

    • Ryan Murphy 15/10/11 #
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      And he’s still a member, because he never resigned as one, has every FF backwoods troll out canvassing for him and defending him online, and has employed FFers en masse on his campaign.

    • Paul Anthony Ward 15/10/11 #
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      @Ryan: His resignation letter is a matter of record. So that’s either a lie or you’re honestly mistaken.
      There are certainly Fianna Fáilers on his campaign, but in my own experience more of them are working on Davis’s campaign than Gallagher’s. And a very large proportion of them are voting for MDH.
      I know that because I will be voting for Davis mainly BECAUSE Séan Gallagher is viewed as a man who jumped ship by a large section of those within Fianna Fáil.
      I’m glad we could clear those “misperceptions” up.

    • Ryan Murphy 15/10/11 #
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      No, Paul, It is you that is mistaken. Seanie boy resigned from the National Executive (two years after he said he did).

      He never resigned from Fianna Fail.

  • Ken Mc Fadden 15/10/11 #
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    This Poll is too old, it is changing daily. Wed night was very damaging to SG and his explanation on thurs was even worse, todays indo won`t help either. Lets see new poll ?

    Reply
  • Tony Stamper 15/10/11 #
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    A FF return to power does not seem so far fetched anymore, does it?

    If he wins, FF will receive a reprieve from the political history book and will start to rebuild with confidence, and with deserved confidence. 40 seats next election, back in power in 10.

    Reply
    • Ken Mc Fadden 15/10/11 #
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      Tony you getting way ahead of yourself, i wouldn`t even try and predict the next 10 days , you have just wrapped up the next ten years.

    • Adrian Martyn 15/10/11 #
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      God I hope not but it could happen. The only way FF will be able to do so is if they make a clean break with the past.

    • Paul Anthony Ward 15/10/11 #
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      You’re getting way ahead of yourself Tony.
      Although there’s undoubtedly been a “thaw” in the past few wks, Fianna Fáil has many yrs of work to do to regain the voters’ trust.

  • Matthew Gleeson 15/10/11 #
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    while the poll may have been taken earlier, the fact that the results are out now will re-enforce SG Campaign and potentially swing the undecided and increase his transfer ability as it is effectively a 2-horse race.

    Reply
  • Meath 15/10/11 #
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    Just shows you. Not one election poster and he’s in the lead..what a waste of money those posters are! Does anyone ever look at a poster and let it influence their decision? Only way I would is if georgia Salpa was running for president…she’d get my number 1 for sure!

    Reply
  • officialpodge 15/10/11 #
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    Up Fianna Fáil!

    Reply
  • limofax 15/10/11 #
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    A poll taken between Mon & Wed, figures released on Saturday. Nearly 3 days to check results. The poll is already out of date.

    Reply
  • cian 15/10/11 #
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    this the man who wants to turn the 1916 100.

    Reply
  • officialpodge 15/10/11 #
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    Micheál Martin has played a blinder… pretending we’re not running anyone. We won’t be shtopped now! Yahoo! Gwan Fianna Fáil!

    Reply
  • Ryan Murphy 15/10/11 #
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    This poll could actually do the state some service, as Haughey might say.

    It could highlight the real risk of people voting a vacuous FF stooge into the Aras, and letting him hold court over the 2016 anniversary celebrations, serving to allow FF rebuild its image and standing in the face of the necessary austerity it’s left this crowd to deal with.

    The next poll will tell the real story.

    Reply
    • Tony Stamper 15/10/11 #
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      It is the payback that is the problem, pretty much all the canvassers that are out for Gallagher in my area, are the same ones that canvassed for FF in the GE. Most of his staff and campaign directors are prominent FF party members. When he is President, he’ll have to return the favour to the Party for getting so behind him, and that will be done by favouring local FF’ers in Presidential visits.

      It will also be a massive psychological boost to the FF org. if they can get one of their own in who is a developer, who borrowed money off the state and then refused to pay it back, who got 750k in state supports, who sat on several quango’s, then getting a run of the mill TD in again should be no challenge.

      If he gets it, then FF will survive as a major party. The faces from the last Govt. will sit in Govt. once more, only in Ireland.

    • Adrian Martyn 15/10/11 #
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      A real possibility, so the last thing Gallagher needs is to be seen as a FF President. If he starts appointing people with too many obvious links to FF while President …

      He’d be as well off, if elected, to favour those who wish to remove the current leadership and start from the grassroots up. A much more left-wing freindly party would help; given our current situation there’s plenty of appitite for it.

    • Paul Anthony Ward 15/10/11 #
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      Preferential visits to the Áras for Fianna Fáilers?
      That’s the worst scenario you could come up with?!

    • Ryan Murphy 15/10/11 #
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      That’s not what he said, and to be fair there are far worse likelihoods.

  • Martin O'Rourke 15/10/11 #
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    So are FF going to change their name to The phoenix Failures with “if I change my name I won’t have to pay back my loans to the state” as the leader

    Reply
  • Terry Turner 15/10/11 #
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    Surely we need a president with diplomatic expertise. Sean has no such expertise at this point. Does the electorate judge on anything other than pr initiatives. Could someone make up a list of 4-6 attributes that our president needs and get them score by credible people before we end up with a person that does not fit the job?

    Reply
    • Eoin Ryan 15/10/11 #
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      That sounds like an interesting way to compare the candidates – but where could you find anyone independent (yet knowledgeable) enough to complete said table. Anyways I’d like to collaborate with you. Msg me on Facebook.

      Eoin

    • Ciarán Mc Mahon 15/10/11 #
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      The thing is though Terry, is that in a democracy *you* are the expert, and you decide what a credible person is!

      And in that vein, I am interested in what attributes people think the candidates have -

      running a survey here on personality and the Presidency http://candidate.ie/?page_id=1354

      all and every opinion welcome!

  • UrH2O 15/10/11 #
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    hahaaha…I certain posters here maintained SG had damaged his chances of winning. I guess they will be calling the people of Ireland “sheeple” if SG wins. Some persons only respect democracy when it works in their interest.

    Reply
  • Mr G 15/10/11 #
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    Fair play to him hope he does it!

    Reply
  • Mary Cleary 15/10/11 #
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    The FF shysters are coming out of the woodwork now. It shows how fickle the Irish are and if people want to vote in someone steeped in FF after the way they wrecked the country and the lives of so many, so be it. Read today’s Indo weekender and you will get a clear picture of Gallaghers involvement with them. Depressing.

    Reply
  • Declan Carr 15/10/11 #
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    I dont believe a word of it, never believe everything you read

    Reply
  • James Carroll 15/10/11 #
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    This has nothing to do with party political bullshit and who is a member of who, this is about the population saying to all the main parties, FG, Lab, SF, the church (represented by dana as far as I’m concerned) and lets not leave out FF who are not in the race thank God, go F??? yourselves we are fed up of the lot ya, whinging and moaning of who done this and who done that and getting constantly horse whipped by IMF/EU. Can’t wait to see the make up the next cabinet after the next Gen. election, bring it on.

    Reply
    • Tony Stamper 15/10/11 #
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      So the answer is to elect a FF’er who made all his money off the building bubble that his party created, who received nearly a million in state supports, who had to be taken to court by the state to force him to pay back money that he owed. Jesus wept, people. He says he is independent but he most certainly is not. He is as far from independent as one can get, only Norris and Dana are independent in this race.

    • Adrian Martyn 15/10/11 #
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      Tony, have you got any links on those incidents? Cheers.

    • Thomas Brady 15/10/11 #
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      Funny to hear the SF’ers moan about SG earned money from the building industry blah blah. We all know how they “collected” their money…

  • David Doyle 15/10/11 #
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    fair play Sean, you get my vote!!

    Reply
  • Conor Heffernan 15/10/11 #
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    i think i want to vomit

    Reply
  • Sean O Loinsigh 15/10/11 #
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    Fine gael have really shot themselves in the foot , they have spent so much time attacking mcguinness , they have let fianna fail in again ! ! Mitchell and his entire election team should hang their heads in shame,if Gallagher does win it’s the springboard that fianna fail were looking for, Mitchell should do the honorable thing and pull out ! At least it would mean that the taxpayer won’t have to fork out â

    Reply
    • Adrian Martyn 15/10/11 #
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      Mairead McGuinness would have being a far better contender for Fine Gael, but Enda’s choice of her or Pat Cox was overrulled, apparently.

  • Report this comment

    I’ll believe it when I see it!

    Reply
  • Adrian Martyn 15/10/11 #
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    I really find this poll amazing, if a little hard to credit. I would love to know what has made so many give him so much? Anyone? Fair play to him, anyway.

    Reply
  • John Cafferty 15/10/11 #
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    Putting a Fianna Fail candidate back in four years after reelecting Bertie for the third time. The genius Irish electorate always reverts to type.

    Reply
  • Rommel Burke 15/10/11 #
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    If it looks like a ff duck,walks like a ff duck and talks like a ff duck, guess what? Its a ff duck!
    thankfully the poll results are meaningless given it was taken before the prime time debate when his true allegiance shone through.

    Reply
  • Declan Carr 15/10/11 #
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    The polls dont tell it like it is when I am knocking on the doors canvassing, and other canvassers are saying the same. More then 50% of the houses I call to are voting Martin. So polls dont mean a thing.

    Reply
    • Thomas Brady 15/10/11 #
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      Surely not Martin Mandella???

    • Byron Smith 16/10/11 #
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      infairness knocking on doors in one or two constituencies does not reflect national opinion and the red c polls have generally been correct to under 5pc variance in recent years… although I would personally believe on the day Sinn fein may come in top two

    • David Higgins 16/10/11 #
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      The only people who are saying that they’re getting a "different" viewpoint on the doors are those whose campaigns aren’t going too well.

      1 the impression you get on the doors doesn’t matter. People are very polite in this election as it’s pretty unimportant. Polls are the only true picture.

      If someone tells you they just came back from a good canvass, ignore it.

  • Richard Fennessy 15/10/11 #
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    the whole country has amnesia about fianna f we deserve what we get a f f cronie who made his money from f f tax breaks and grants we will never be rid of f f and serves us right he will be sniggering at us like he did to the poor contestants he patronised on d den.

    Reply
  • Martin Dorgan 15/10/11 #
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    Sean Gallagher is now likely to give anyone a run for their money for the presidency being the best candidate by far in the field with the best credentials for the job and the diplomacy to go with it ,an essential ingredient for the job

    Reply
    • Richard Fennessy 15/10/11 #
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      not voting michael d but how can u say sean g has better credentials then m d ????

    • Sean C 15/10/11 #
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      Martin which FF Cumann do you belong too ?

    • Tony Stamper 15/10/11 #
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      Sean. Only took 2 clicks, one on his “name”, and on “show more pages” to see he is down as a FF’er. They are like the borg, they just keeping assimilating and changing or maybe they are more like cancer in our society. If they come back this time, they will finish off this country, they destroyed this economy in the 30′s, 50′s,70′s and this decade. Once more and we are finished we’ll have no sovereignty left, as is they are so engrained in society it will take a generation for their pernicious influence to dissipate to tolerable levels.

    • Sean C 15/10/11 #
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      16 of them here judging by the number of red thumbs I got for "outing" them.

    • Adrian Martyn 16/10/11 #
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      @Tony – much the same could be said against SF.

  • Bren Adams 15/10/11 #
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    Fianna Fáil on the way back I don’t believe it when will we ever learn.
    Electing this idiot to the Aras will send some message to Europe
    The Irish still support corruption

    Reply
  • Jason Mcginn 15/10/11 #
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    This poll was taken before the primetime debate!! Very misleading!!!

    Reply
  • AlexGogan 15/10/11 #
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    From the start want to say that if ff put or supported a candidate on a point of principle I would not vote for them after they did such a really crap job for the last few years. But the current lot are not doing much better either few simple things would change a lot. But of all the current lot SG is hands down the best and could do an amazing job. But needless to say this will get thumbs down from.the cattle and mobilised supporters trolling the web distorting the actual.facts

    Reply
  • Ultramann 15/10/11 #
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    More bogus polls. Now that Norris is finished and mitchell never started it is clearly an ABM strategy by the overlords – Anyone But McGuiness. SInn Fein could field Dustin the Turkey and they would still have a minimum of 20% with their legendary grass root campaigners.

    Reply
  • Fiona McPhillips 15/10/11 #
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    A FF president just 6 months after we voted them into oblivion? This will be the straw that broke the camel’s back for me.

    Reply
  • Elizabeth Taaffe 15/10/11 #
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    Sean Gallagher was asked what he thought was the most important piece of legislation passed in the last twenty years. His response? ‘nothing comes to mind’. And people are voting for him??

    Reply
    • Ken Mc Fadden 16/10/11 #
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      Thats because he knew it was the bank guarantee, he as a proud FF man wasn`t going to bring that up, also Mc Guinness was asked several times why he left the IRA, no one asked Gallagher why he left FF ? We can forget RTE ever asking him any tough questions.

    • Adrian Martyn 16/10/11 #
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      I’m starting to wonder if Martin ever left the IRA. Picking up on Vincent Browne’s book club, I read “Martin mcGuinness: From Guns to Government” (ISBN 1 84018 473 6) this eveining. I recomend it for anyone wishing to learn more about MMG’s life, and its not pretty.

  • Darren 16/10/11 #
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    Irish people are gullible morons if Sean Gallagher wins, how stupid do you have to be to believe his independent ordinary man angle & not see him for what he is, fianna fail scum, falling for the spin over and over again

    Reply
    • Adrian Martyn 16/10/11 #
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      More than a little unfair, Darren. He never held a goverment post.

    • Sean C 16/10/11 #
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      No he never held a government post, just a position on the executive of FF when they pointed the nose downward and dived the Irish economy, at full throttle, engines screaming, into the ground. And in doing so FF died in it’s sleep, not screaming in terror like their passengers.

    • Sean C 16/10/11 #
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      I meant to say…FF died peacefully in their sleep not screaming in terror like their passengers

    • Adrian Martyn 16/10/11 #
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      @ Sean C – then don’t vote for him.

    • Sean C 16/10/11 #
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      Adrian you can rest assured I won’t be voting for him, and as a lifetime FF voter, I won’t be voting for any FF candidate again until FF offers an apology for their betrayal of the trust placed in them by people like me. Until they acknowledge what they’ve done they can never be trusted again.

  • Richard Fennessy 16/10/11 #
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    ff deserve huge credit they can do no wrong i genuinely give up we will never get rid of ff they r on the way back and it is a democracy so we cant complain we get a goverment r president we deserve

    Reply
  • Kevin Kelliher 16/10/11 #
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    is it April 1st already……

    Reply
  • Andrew Logue 16/10/11 #
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    Judging by the comments on here irish society is not ready to make the move from the conservatism and parochial politics which has dominated for many years. At the last election the majority voted for a party with the same policies as FF but without the baggage. Now it seems the majority want a president who was a member of FF throughout the disastrous ‘Bertie’ years and who presumably supported his policies judging by his silence during this time. Believing that Gallagher is independant from FF is akin to believing that MMcG left the IRA in 1974 but I suppose people believe what they choose to believe.

    Also the establishment attack on the anti establishment candidates in this election is truly depressing and doesn’t bode well for the future. My tuppence worth is that MMcG would make a very progressive and inclusive president and in my opinion is the canditate who would command the most respect on the international stage. Evidence of his achievments and integrity are there for all to see unlike any of the other candidates. but I’m beginning to think there will always be a majority in Ireland who like things just the way they are.

    Reply
    • Adrian Martyn 16/10/11 #
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      I would agree with you but I spent the eveining reading Clarke and Johnston’s bio of MMG. It scared the living daylights out of me. What that man has done to get to where he is does not deserve a vote.

      For anybody interested, said book is “Martin mcGuinness: From Guns to Government”, ISBN 1 84018 473 6. I got my copy from the local library. I’m sure there must be others. Vincent Browne had about a dozen on the table a few nights back.

    • Andrew Logue 16/10/11 #
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      not sure the point your trying to make. We already know McGuinness was an IRA leader and that you think this was borne out of a lust for violence on his part. Thats your position so not sure why you keep repeating it.

      Maybe you should also read up about the history of British state brutality throughout the world. Examples include their support of mass muder General Suharto of indonesia who was responsible for comitting genocide against his own people; The british government act of genocide directly against the Iraqi people through sanctions which is estimated to have killed hundreds of thousands of women and children.

      Maybe you should also read up about the history of Ireland from the time of the ulster plantations to partition to state terrorism against catholics and then maybe you will at least understand why the provisional IRA existed.

    • Adrian Martyn 17/10/11 #
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      Andrew, I have. There is no excuse whatsoever for the brutality that the British inflicted upon our people. None.

      But none of them are running as candidates in this election. Martin McGuinness is. And he has always defended the IRA’s actions, many of which were utterly indefensible. There is no point in getting rid of the British if we replace them with monsters of our own.

  • Conor Kirwan 16/10/11 #
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    I wouldn’t make too much out of just one poll as it could be a total outlier. Unless we see a repeating pattern of what this poll suggests we cannot infer too much from it. What do we know about the polling methods used by Red C? How do they weight them for example in terms of likelihood to vote, class, gender, geographic location? My gut feeling is that such massive swings are fairly unlikely in such a short space of time. While I’m sure that Seán Gallagher is performing quite well and is a definite contender in the presidential race I have serious doubts that he doubled his share of first preference votes in the space of a week!

    Reply
  • Kevin Maughan 16/10/11 #
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    Re Tony Stamper.

    The Borg! Hahaha! No better description for ff!

    Reply
  • Aine O'Connor 16/10/11 #
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    If Gallagher is so dynamic and full of ideas why does he want to spend the next seven years in an utterly useless job?

    Reply
    • Ryan Murphy 16/10/11 #
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      There are €249,014 reasons.

      A further two being the rehabilitation of Fianna Fail, and that parties self perception that the job, created by DeV to keep his hand in, remains theirs by right.

    • Aine O'Connor 16/10/11 #
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      Yep, the ultimate quango followed by a lifetime of (more) board memberships and free dinners. To pretend you want the job with a purpose in mind is just insulting to the electorate. This whole prez circus is like the coliseum, distract the plebs with sport.

  • stephen oneill 16/10/11 #
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    Red c poll me arse a croc of crap media hype

    Reply
  • Barry Freeney 16/10/11 #
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    All of the polls show peoples no 1 vote. However candidates have to get 50% + 1 to be elected. This will be decided by the transfers of the disqualified candidates. Where are the polls that find out where Dana or mary ‘s votes are going to go?

    Reply

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