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Dublin: 9 °C Tuesday 21 May, 2013

Higgins and Gallagher bolster leads in latest Áras opinion poll

Red C’s poll for Paddy Power affirms Higgins’ lead, with Sean Gallagher moving into second place ahead of Martin McGuinness.

Michael D Higgins (left) leads the presidential field, with Sean Gallagher (right) beating Martin McGuinness into third place.
Michael D Higgins (left) leads the presidential field, with Sean Gallagher (right) beating Martin McGuinness into third place.
Image: Mark Stedman/Photocall Ireland

A SECOND OPINION POLL has affirmed Michael D Higgins’ status as the frontrunner in the Presidential election – and underlined Sean Gallagher’s strong performance among the electorate.

The poll, commissioned by Paddy Power and carried out by Red C, gives the Labour Party candidate a clear lead at the top of the poll, with one in four voters – 25 per cent – pledging their first preference votes to Higgins.

The former minister’s share of the vote is up by 7 per cent on the last comparable Red C poll, commissioned by the Sunday Business Post ten days ago.

Sean Gallagher – whose second-place performance in this morning’s Irish Times poll surprised many – continues his strong performance, gaining 10 percentage points to stand in second spot on 21 per cent.

Martin McGuinness retains his third place on the previous poll, unchanged at 16 per cent – though Red C said its analysis suggested McGuinness would struggle to pick up second preference votes.

“He is also the candidate that over a third of the public least want to see become president,” Red C said.

Independent senator David Norris’s struggling performance is confirmed, with his vote falling by a third to 14 per cent, while Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell loses three points to stand on 10 per cent.

Mary Davis suffers from intense focus on her personal earnings, dropping 3 points to 9 per cent, while Dana Rosemary Scallon trails in last place after dropping one place to 5 per cent.

The findings are broadly similar to those of the Ipsos MRBI poll published this morning, with the only difference in the order of the candidates being Mary Davis’s stronger performance in the MRBI sample.

Transfer analysis showed that Gallagher performed stronger with younger voters while Higgins was favoured by older ones, and that the second preferences of each individual candidate’s voters indicated that Higgins remained a clear frontrunner.

Higgins also commands the strongest support of voters who voted for Fianna Fáil in the general election in February, taking 26 per cent of their support – ahead of Gallagher on 20 per cent and Davis on 18.

Mitchell’s struggling performance is underlined by findings which showed that only 15 per cent of Fine Gael voters would offer him their first preference – while 70 per cent of Sinn Féin voters plan to give Martin McGuinness their first preference.

The poll’s percentage figures showed that 19 per cent of respondents, however, had yet to decide on their voting intentions. 1,000 voters were surveyed for the poll between Monday and Wednesday of this week.

Paddy Power/Red C opinion poll:
(change from Sunday Business Post poll from Sept 30 in brackets)

  • Michael D Higgins 25 (+7)
  • Sean Gallagher 21 (+10)
  • Martin McGuinness 16 (unch)
  • David Norris 14 (-7)
  • Gay Mitchell 10 (-3)
  • Mary Davis 9 (-4)
  • Dana Rosemary Scallon 5 (-1)

Download: Full PDF of the Paddy Power / Red C poll findings >

Poll: Big falls for Norris and Mitchell, but gains for Gallagher >

In full: TheJournal.ie’s full coverage of the Race for the Áras >

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Comments (43 Comments)

  • Interesting how well Sean Gallagher is polling without polluting the landscape with election posters.

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    • But providing more income for the many small printing companies which rely on such jobs and would be out of business if it weren’t for election time

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    • Marko 06/10/11 #

      I detect a troll ^

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    • Gallagher is playing a very smart game. By minimising his costs and increasing his vote to leave him near the top he stands to get 200k returned to him if he fails to win. Nice work if you can get it. Michael D is the best candidate. A man of integrity and dignity. One of natures gentlemen.

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    • If there relying on election posters to keep them afloat then they have problems. I think it’s a great idea that he’s not using posters.
      On a side note has mcguinness put up posters around the limerick area. Haven’t seen any.

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    • The posters add nothing to a candidate’s campaign. If anything, all they do is contribute the occasional giggle (for example, the Mary Davis posters).

      That entire “printers need the work” line from Gay Mitchell (in particular) is the world’s worst reason for having election posters in this race.

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  • I said earlier in the week that I didn’t think Gallagher had a snowballs chance, looks like (happily) I was wrong. There seems to be a real alternative now for who doesn’t have skeletons in the cupboard plus his simple message and lackk of bullsh1t seems to be striking a chord. On a related matter does anyone think that it’s any coincidence that in the type of campaign that focuses on personality, Mitchell is languishing? He has the charisma of a damp dishcloth.

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  • I’m amazed that 5% of the people polled want Dana to be president

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  • Gallagher is ahead and in my opinion could go on to win for a few simple reasons

    * Lack of Negativity and Bullshit
    * Not littering the countryside will posters
    * Not spending thousands on a campaign bus
    * Trying to save millions of the taxpayers money on printing (& working for free on State Boards)
    * Strong political background
    * Strong business background
    * Understands the role of the president and knows its limits
    * Young and Energetic and not stuck in the past

    ….just a few reasons! As you can see I am shouting for Gallagher, but I still strongly believe he should be running for the Dail instead of the Aras.

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  • Gallagher gets my vote he is quite open about his FF past on his website so I dont see it as an issue as he is not affiliated with any political party. He is a breath of fresh air compared to the others and his energy and lack of BS and lack of negativity is just what this country needs.

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  • The amount of bile and hatred directed at McGuinness and Norris seems reflected in this poll. Higgins has been left alone by the media. No wonder he is on top.

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  • Michael D. Higgins looks like one of the goblins from Gringotts Wizarding Bank

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    • Giz Pyro 07/10/11 #

      I saw a picture of Jigsaw from the Saw movies with "vote Michael D" under it.. I feel bad making a joke about the appearance of any of the candidates, but I have to admit, I did see the resemblance..

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  • I must admit that I have not followed the debates but on balance it is looking more like Michael D’s to lose. Of the others Gallaghers talents I think would be wasted in the job, If McGuiness gets elected unless he wants to trigger a constitutional crisis he will have to sign the next Social Welfare Bill & Finance Act that his party is so fundamentally opposed to and I do not think anyone wants a constitutional crisis. Of the rest my namesake is heading for “try again Fail better” I think. I think Davis releasing her pay details has done her more harm than good and in the process shown what is wrong on some many levels in this country. What can you say about Gay? and Dana will probably beat the opinion polls but still come up short.

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    • McGuinness would have no choice, but to sign the budget, no matter what SF protestations would be.
      His New Republic guff is just that.
      If he didn’t sign, he’d have to step down. Different rules for budgets than constitutional legislation.

      Reply
  • Cormac 06/10/11 #

    I hope that the electorate will see sense and Michael D. makes it across the finish line. I’ve thought all along that he would be the only sane choice in this election. I reckon he has more integrity than the rest of them put together.

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  • I think that Gallagher HAS got a big skeleton in his closet. He is ex Fianna Fail . For me that removes him completely from my list of possibles.

    I think he impressed many by his refusal so far to lower himself to the negative campaigning of some candidates, and that is in his favour.

    Mitchell deserves to be languishing. His campaign has been embarrassing. I don’t want somebody aggressive and snide representing me, or my country.

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    • Higgins is ex FF as well!

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    • It’s ironic that some people are criticising Gallagher for thus FF past and won’t vote for him for that reason and then there are people within the FF organisation who won’t support him because he abandoned the party in it’s hour of need …
      Damned if you do, damned if you don’t!!

      At least he looks fit and healthy and is not of pensionable age I think (if I heard correctly on the radio) that Gallagher and Davis are the only 2 candidates under 60

      Reply
  • Máirín 07/10/11 #

    Gallagher would be highly skilled at strengthening economic relations at least he has an understanding of how things work at that level. Davis should do some research and she might realise that Ireland already has one of the highest volunteer rates in the EU in community work. If we do any more volunteering we’ll never have time to undertake gainful employment!!!!!

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  • So the 2 candidates with the least dirt thrown at them have risen to the top. The Irish electorate are a sorry bunch of flip-floppers

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  • I’m part of the Irish diaspora (I love that word) and not even sure if I’m entitled to vote! Ireland needs an honest, inspirational and down to earth president. From reading all these comments and my own observations and research, it looks like Seán Gallagher is the man for the job. I hope he becomes our President.

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  • My vote was with Norris. Primarily because I think he would have been a real sign that Ireland is no longer a little country lost in the perverse dogma of the catholic church and that finally we as a people would vote with our own hearts. And that if you were a 13 year and gay growing up in rural Ireland that you would be inspired by having a gay president instead of feeling outcast. The pope probably wouldn’t come to Ireland because of. How stunning when you consider what the church is supposed to stand for. On a practical level I actually thought it would be good for business because the pink pound is huge.(so shoot me) However I am sorta pissed off though with the disability payments. It just seems like he was chancing his arm and taking the money because he could. Ie no different than the rest. So am starting to lean towards Gallagher. Self made. Young and willing to use his energy to drive brand Ireland. What a motley crew though?

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    • What you say makes a lot of sense…..Norris just hasn’t been convincing with his answers….Don’t be too hard on the Catholic church though while it has a lot to answer for the good people within more than outweigh the bad!

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  • am I missing something? these % changes don’t add up

    +7 + 10 = + 17% change for top two candidates

    -7 -3 – 3 -1 = -14% change for bottom 4 candidates

    where did the other 3% come from?
    if someone gains 1% then someone else has to lose it

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    • Two points:

      1) There was a typo on my part – Davis is down 4, not 3. The net difference is thus 2%. My apologies.
      2) If I remember correctly the last SBP poll also included FF’s Labhrás Ó Murchú, who at the time wasn’t out of the running when the poll was commissioned. He may have accounted for 1 or 2 of the difference; if it was 1%, I’d imagine the other point was lost to mathematical error.

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  • Is he our isn’t he a Fianna Fail candidate

    Mr Gallagher sat on the national executive of Fianna Fail while they ravaged this country.
    He was director of elections in county Louth in 2007
    He was appointed by Fianna Fail on the board of Fas in 2010

    Michael Martin took a gamble to run Gallagher as an Independent because he knows he would not go too far under the Fianna Fail name

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  • Norris "who"……..the real debt has started and he can answer simple question that why he is slipping down the pecking order.

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  • My vote is with Norris.

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  • AFFS

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  • Please correct me if I’m wrong, but Sean Gallagher joined and sat on the national executive on two occasions with the express purpose of representing sub-contractors who were being destroyed when contractors went broke. He later resigned from the National Executive. Tainted by association seems a little harsh when he was trying to represent someone.
    As to his brief period as director of elections in 2007, it is my understanding this was in a voluntary capacity and not a political party appointment.
    In relation to his position with FAS it seems that he was appointed as a businessman and entrepreneur who might be able to solve the problem of that agency – regardless of perceived political affiliation. If the Global Economic forum is to be believed, Ireland needs an National Training and Employment Agency more than ever! Resist the temptation to throw the baby out with bath water I say : )

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    • The problem here is, no one is asking the right Questions:( 1). Was Sean Gallagher not a full time political advisor to Dr. Rory O’Hanlon? ( 2). Did his business Smarthomes not incurr losses of 500,000 euro in 2010. ( 3.) In 2006, Did he not promise 150 jobs in the Dundalk area with a 10million euro investment in technology? (4). Did the once -thriving Smarthomes not rely on ‘celtic tiger’ ‘ developers’ ie; Adamstown, West Dublin. etc. for their business? (5). Were the Dundalk FF cumman out in force, canvassing for Sean on the 5/10/2011? (6). Has he a sizeable portfolio of failed business? (7). Does he give the image of a wealthy entreprenure? (8). Could he be the first president to go into receivership? ?. PR spin is lying !

      Reply

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