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In numbers: What the stress tests think of the Irish economy

€70 billion (and counting) in state aid for the banks, 45,000 mortgage defaults, and 15.8 per cent unemployment…

Image: trekkyandy via Flickr

The following is a collection of figures, assumptions and projections as outlined in the latest batch of Central Bank stress tests, released this evening.

€24,000,000,000 – the approximate amount that must now be invested into the banking sector by the state so as to recapitalise them for a ‘worst case scenario’ outlined in the tests.

€70,000,000,000 – the approximate running total that will have been invested by the state in the banking sector to date, when today’s €24bn total is included.

€67,500,000,000 – the amount being borrowed from the European Central Bank, European Union and International Monetary Fund under the terms of Ireland’s bailout agreed last November.

€10,000,000,000 – the amount from Ireland’s national pension reserve fund which is being invested into the banks now, in the current phase of recapitalisation.

€15,709.16 – the amount being invested in the banking sector by each man, woman and child resident in the State.

€140,718,000,000 – the total amount in residential mortgages held by the four institutions being appraised in today’s stress tests – AIB, Bank of Ireland, Irish Life & Permanent, and EBS Building Society.

€9,491,000,000 – the amount of those loans which will have to be written off by the four banks in a worst case scenario; in the ‘base’ scenario more anticipated by the tests, €5.838bn would be written off.

45,000 – the approximate number of home repossessions that could take place in that worst-case scenario – a level economist Ronan Lyons believes is exceptionally aggressive and will never be realised.

€332,000,000 – the current market value of AIB, according to its share price, before trading in its shares was suspended overnight.

€13,300,000,000 – the amount the state is now putting into that bank, obliterating any outstanding public ownership in what was previously Ireland’s biggest bank.

€1,166,000,000 – the market value of Bank of Ireland, in which the State already held a 36 per cent stake…

€5,200,000,000 – …and the amount the State is now investing in it.

€112,000,000 – the value of Irish Life and Permanent before shares were suspended in it on Wednesday morning, based on a share value of 40.5c – down from a peak of almost €23 just over three years ago.

€4,000,000,000 – the amount the State is now putting into IL&P, easily bringing the institution into majority state ownership.

15.8 per cent – the peak level of unemployment suggested by the stress tests, to be hit in 2012.

14.7 per cent – the level of unemployment in the most recent CSO figures – only slightly off its peak in the current economic downturn to date.

32.92 per cent – the worst-case scenario drop in house prices over the next two years, with houses losing a sixth of their value in 2011 and a little more than that in 2012.

6 – the number of Irish-based or Irish-owned banking institutions covered by the State’s bank guarantee when it was introduced in September 2008.

6 – the number of those guaranteed institutions which will now be either totally, or majority, owned by the State once the current recapitalisation has been completed (assuming that Bank of Ireland cannot raise the €5.2bn it now requires from any other sources).

€0 - the amount that former finance minister Brian Lenihan thought the bank guarantee would cost the State, declaring in September 2008 that the national guarantee would be enough to stave off any threat to the viability of the Irish banking sector.

State must shell out another €24bn to banking sector >

Finance Minister announces “radical restructuring” of Irish banking system >

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