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Dublin: 16 °C Wednesday 19 June, 2013

Scottish independence: Will they stay or will they go?

David Cameron will sign a deal with Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond later, outlining plans for a referendum on Scottish independence.

Image: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire/Press Association Images

BRITAIN’S PRIME MINISTER and Scotland’s first minister are to approve plans today for a referendum on Scottish independence, in a move that could lead to the breakup of Great Britain after 300 years.

Premier David Cameron, who opposes a Scottish breakaway, will ink the deal in Edinburgh with Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond, firing the starting gun on two years of campaigning that will pitch them on opposite sides.

After months of negotiations, London is expected to give Scotland’s administration the power to conduct the referendum in the autumn of 2014, offering Scots a straight yes-no question on leaving the United Kingdom.

“Scotland’s two governments have come together to deliver a referendum that will be legal, fair and decisive,” Cameron is expected to say.

“It paves the way so that the biggest question of all can be settled: a separate Scotland or a United Kingdom? I will be making a very positive argument for our United Kingdom.

“It is now up to the people of Scotland to make that historic decision.”

Cameron’s Conservatives will be joined by their Liberal Democrat coalition partners in the British parliament and the opposition Labour party in urging voters to keep Britain together.

Prime Minister David Cameron and First Minister Alex Salmond are to meet in Edinburgh today. Andrew Milligan/PA Wire/Press Association Images.

The marathon campaign will pit them against the Salmond’s pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP), the majority party in the devolved Edinburgh parliament.

The independence campaign has celebrity backing from James Bond star Sean Connery, but only a minority of Scots appear to back it, with a survey released on 8 October by pollsters TNS-BMRB showing 28 per cent in favour.

Salmond said in May he was seeking independence “not because I think we are better than any other country, but because I know that we are as good as any other country”.

The SNP had pressed for the 2014 date, giving them time to try to win over voters and coinciding with the anniversary of the 1314 Battle of Bannockburn — a famous Scots victory over the English.

Salmond, who has pushed for a referendum since his party won a majority in the Scottish parliament in May 2011, says Scotland — which has a population of five million — should be able to run its own foreign, economic and defence policies.

The devolved Scottish government currently has powers over policy areas such as health and education, as well as a separate legal system.

England and Scotland were joined by acts passed in 1707. Together with Scotland and Wales, they make up Great Britain, while the United Kingdom also includes Northern Ireland.

- © AFP, 2012

Read: Thousands attend Scottish independence rally >

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Comments (58 Comments)

  • Aaron t 15/10/12 #

    it will be interesting to see which way they vote, and if the 16-17 year olds will come out and vote if they are given the chance (what the SNP are hoping for) and if they do get Independence I hope they run the country well and not like ourselves or their management of RBS

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  • As part of the campaign BBC Scotland are to show Braveheart every Sunday night at 9 pm from now until the referendum!

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  • Freeeedom, in 2014

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  • Let’s hope it happens it’s a long time coming

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  • bigmac 15/10/12 #

    at least westminister are letting them have their vote, in catalu?a they want a referendum over independence from spain and they have been tarred as extreme nationalists that even the spanish education minister has said the catalan students have to be espa?olisados which is a direct attack on their language and culture and even a few of the army generals have said they will protect the union of spain and all the usual scaremongering like they will never be a member of the eu etc etc let them vote and decide but that will never happen because nearly a quarter of the spanish gnp comes from catalu?a and i empathise with them they have their own language and culture and it wont take much to make them independent they already have their own education,health,civil service,police and even postal service.

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    • I disagree. The minister’s comments were unfortunate because he failed to foresee how they would be read by Catalans, not because there’s something intrinsically wrong with them. As he also said, españolizarles meant to make them feel as proud to be Spanish as they’re of being Catalan. I don’t see any attack here to Catalan culture. The issue is that the minister was unaware of the sentiment in Catalonia where the position seems to be about rejecting everything that is Spanish. An that does feel like an attack to Spanish culture, to be honest, as it is more about rejecting anything Spanish rather than accepting what there’s in common (many, many things by the way).

      I support a referendum so people in Catalonia can decide but Spain is simply letting Catalans know of the consequences independence could have. The UK isn’t much different as they have already mentioned that Scotland’s currency would not be sterling and that there would have to be compensation for subsidies that Scotland has enjoyed this far. This, as bad as it sounds, must be told so that all voters can make an informed decision. If your desire for independence is strong, you should go ahead despite of the economic consequences. I respect the will of Catalans who seek independence simply because not sharing with the rest of Spain; they’re entitled to it. However, an independent Catalonia would only be competition to Spain so once separated, I fail to see why Spain should show any kindness to a country that abandons Spain when thing go wrong. I think this is perfectly respectable too.

      Don’t blame army generals for making the comments they’ve made: they all had to swear they would defend the Spanish constitution and that’s just what they’re doing. That’s why it’s important that Catalonia get to change the constitution.

      Catalonia doesn’t produce a quarter of Spanish GDP. 20% of Spanish GDP is produced in Catalonia, which doesn’t mean it is Catalan or that it would remain in the region should independence take place. It is clear to me how much Spain depends on Catalonia but I don’t think Catalan nationalists have a realistic idea of how much they owe to Spain.

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  • Of course a Yes vote would resolve the West Lothian question once and for all.

    If it had happened sooner we might have been spared Gordon Brown.

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  • I feel a referendum for an independent Cork coming.

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  • With the economy the way it is the UK Government have chosen a great time to put this to the scots, i’m pretty sure most scots will be afraid to go solo.

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  • I’ll be interested to see how they’d split the economic debt in the event of a Yes vote.

    There’s also the interesting topic of who should vote in this referendum: http://damoclesbda.wordpress.com/2012/01/12/who-will-vote-in-the-scottish-referendum/

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  • Barry 15/10/12 #

    I think they’ll def vote for independence,

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    • How do you get from twenty eight per cent to fifty one per cent before the Debate begins. The answer is of course that you don’t . We have seen patterns like this before and particularly in wealthy countries such as Canada where the Parti Québécois were unable to bring the decision over the line. This result will make Sinn Fein realise that the question he wants the people asked in Northern Ireland is the flip side of the same coin.
      They better know how they’ll both cope with failure.

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    • All cameron has to say is look at Ireland is this what you want , all samon has to say we will not follow irelands road to nowhere .

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  • I hope there is a yes vote but anything bar a seismic event highlighting the need for independence (think nuclear submarine explosion), I cannot see the quantum leap from 28 to 51%. It is also worth noting that EU membership could take time and the British will be highlighting this along with a myriad of scare tactics in the build up to the vote.

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    • It’s possible though that Scotland may choose Independence as a way of remaining in the EU, as it seems a referendum on UK membership is coming, which possibly won’t pass due to levels of Euroscepticism in England.

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    • @Stephen, I had not thought of that, though I would be surprised if the British public were given the opportunity to leave the EU. Interestingly Article 50 of Lisbon creates a mechanism that did not previously exist for such a departure. I agree with your assertion though, if there was a referendum in Britain to leave the EU and it was passed before the 2014 vote for Scottish independence, it would most likely have a significant impact since the Scots are more pro European that their British neighbours.

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  • Westminister owns all their oil and gas fishing grounds ect .

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  • Just feel scotland has been through too much crap to pass up this opportunity of independence.

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  • So the English don’t get a vote on independence from Scotland, then?

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    • Of course not, the English are the nasty aggressor in all cases. How can you even ask?

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    • Same in Spain with the possibility of Catalan independence. Spaniards living outside of the region will have no say on the matter.

      We all know how bad we Spaniards are, having oppressed half the world and bent on still doing it in this time and age :)

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    • Why would they? In a question of national sovereignty, why would a nation outside the borders of the nation the question is affecting have a say?

      If such we the case, all small nation states would be held in perennial oppression

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    • @Kerron – and if the Scots vote No, the English get no say as to whether they want to remain in the same country? It’s a marriage in which one party gets the exclusive right to decide whether to divorce or stay married, and the other just has to put up with it?

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    • Kerron, you’re right, that’d be the likely outcome if everyone had a say in the matter.

      However, where does it end? I mean, how big must a nation be to gain independence? The Vall d’Aran, in Catalonia, would like to be independent too but the Catalan government finds this laughable. Is it a matter of double standards? They have their own culture and their own language too, why can they not be independent if they so wish?

      Furthermore, why could a residential block in Barcelona not become independent if the majority of residents agree? Or not so far fetched, why could they not remain Spanish surrounded by an independent Catalonia. After all, that’s what the majority of residents want and outsiders’ opinions don’t matter.

      It’s hard business this of seeking independence, is it not?

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    • Non-argument. You obviously don’t understand the definition of a nation if you’re talking about blocks of residents being constituted as such.

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    • I see sarcasm isn’t in your bag of tricks. Please feel free to enlighten me on the concept of nation and on the boxes people must tick if they want to pursue independence.

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    • Alex, What if Scotland rejects Scottish independence and Wales and England embrace it?

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    • @Damocles – That’s my point.

      Of course we can’t talk about English nationalism, because it’s dirty and borderline fascist. Unlike Scots, Welsh or Irish nationalism, which are legitimate aspirations to self-determination.

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    • Alex, Damocles;

      What you say sounds very familiar to many in Spain.

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    • Why should England get to decide Scotland’s future? If a wife wants to divorce her husband but he doesn’t, it’s tough shit.

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    • Barra, would an independent Scotland feel so respectful of that kind of reasoning if, say, the lowlands decided to become independent too and be known as the Republic of Edimburgh and Glasgow? Catalonia is not with the Vall d’Aran but they still have the cheek to complain about the Spanish government. As per your reasoning, why would any wealthy part of a country subsidise the poorer areas when they can go solo, not having anyone else the right to say anything? Why would London not declare unilateral independence and leave the rest of the country now that all the investment has been made in the city?

      Kerron did not bother to explain his concept of nation but my point before about a block of flats becoming independent is not as silly as some may think. What is the Vatican but a large, independent residential state?

      For more on this I recommend reading Charles King’s recent article, “The Scottish Play”, on Foreign Affairs magazine. There he aks: “What kinds of units deserve self-determination, especially when they base their claim not on minority rights but on the simple desire to do things their own way? What options are open to democratic polities that seek to counter secession when military force is unimaginable?”

      It is far more complex than what you suggest.

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    • Clearly in the Spanish state there are two nations that exhibit contemporary traits of nationhood whilst also being historic nations

      you are attempting to fudge the argument by neglecting the fact that these nations have long been in existence as separate entities functioning as economic, linguistic, cultural or political entities, or some combination of the above, and have then been taken over by an oppressor nation

      Catalonia and the Basque Country exist as part of a definite (although sometimes flexible historical process), just as the other nations in the Spanish state like Asturias and Galicia have lost their claim to nationhood through the opposite historical process

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    • And what are those contemporary traits of nationhood or will you leave them unexplained as your concept of nation? To define Catalonia as an opressed state is being very flexible with the meaning of opression since they govern themselves with the exception of pensions and taxes. Hardly an example of opression in my eyes. Palestine is an opressed state and I reckon you will note the difference with Catalonia.

      Catalonia, like any other Spanish region, accepted the existing Spanish constitution in 1978. This legal framework acknowledged the historical issues of some regions and provided the legal mechanisms for their pursuing of self-government (which has been granted to a very generous degree). Independence was barred and this was accepted by all political parties (including nationalists) at the time; there was no refusal to accept the constitution unless independence were allowed (which they could have done).

      If independence is what they want, a constitutional change is what they need and anything different is breaking both Spanish and international law as this does not grant the right to self-determination to just anybody who happens to feel like it: it is restricted to colonies and opressed minorities (and no international player finds Catalonia opressed) for as long as they do not threaten regional integrity.

      Self-determination is a worthwhile pursue but not an automatic right. Rights, as obligations, come from the law and the only applicable laws here are the Spanish and international ones where no relevant clause can be found to justify Catalan independence.

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    • Damocles 16/10/12 #

      “Why should England get to decide Scotland’s future? If a wife wants to divorce her husband but he doesn’t, it’s tough shit.”

      Polls show that England and Wales would gladly let Scotland go it’s own way. The husband (England and Wales) would gladly divorce the wife (Scotland). Should Scotland be forced into independence that way?

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  • According to various people an independent Scotland will be in a worse state than Ireland is now about 5 minutes after independence:

    Last month, Iain Duncan Smith, the Work and Pensions Secretary, warned that an independent Scotland would not be able to afford its welfare bill.

    Mr Duncan Smith said the annual benefit and pensions bill in Scotland was almost twice as much as the revenue raised each year from North Sea oil and gas.

    :Chuckles

    Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader, also claimed that official figures showed that almost nine out of 10 Scottish households took more from the public purse than they contribute in taxes.

    :Laughs

    An ICM poll earlier this year showed that more people backed Scottish independence in England than in Scotland.

    :Falls off chair

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/9609490/Scotland-to-vote-on-leaving-the-Union-as-David-Cameron-agrees-referendum.html

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    • I remember reading about that ICM poll a few months back…can’t say I blame people in England for being in favour of it if the above statistics are true. I tried looking it up myself but couldn’t get any concrete answers, what reasons has Salmond given the Scottish people to vote in favour of leaving the union?

      I know he is saying they will have full control over their own welfare, health, defence and so on….but that seems kind of weak. Some of the most powerful governments in Europe are at the breaking point because of the economic crisis, does he really think his government would do a better job than Westminster with fewer resources?

      I can’t really see any advantage in leaving the Union at this point in time.

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    • “what reasons has Salmond given the Scottish people to vote in favour of leaving the union”

      Hating the English, blaming the English for every bad thing that has happened in their history.

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    • I hear you Damocles; it is the same in Spain. We are responsible for all the evils that befell on South American and Central American countries, we are the root of everything that is wrong in Catalonia and we may not know it yet but we will shortly be accused of killing JFK too.

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  • I was glad to hear that all 16′s will get to vote in the referendum; after all they can get married at 16 so surely they should have a say in what sort of country they wish to live out their married lives in?
    On a wider note however, is the actual passion for full independence. This is not easy to decern and opinion polls could be widely out come the day as the SNP has caused many upsets in the pastfrom gaining 11 seats in one election to their outright majority in the current parliament. However, as was stated, the English will indulge in scare tactics like never before and the electorate will do well to be wary of such moves; remember, this is a Race which not that long ago prescribed the Scots native Gaelic tongue, mode of dress and customs and generally carried on like the Romans (who never did conquer the Scots). The end result is a small country systematically deprived of investment with the result that the infrastructure between say central Scotland and the South East of England is stark indeed! All profits, taxes and excise duties, especially from North Sea oil and gas reserves have gone South to fuel their economy and fill the void left by Thatcher’s wretched economic policies. At the same time and for many years the Scots were persistently told that they were “subsidy junkies” and “sponges” using up more than their fair share of revenues from their over reliance on the NHS due to their poor diet an drinking habits! The Scots obviously favour this simplistic approach as they have never voted in enough numbers to indicate a desire for true independence. I suspect that due to historic religious factors, at least in the central belt where most of the populace reside, the vote will play out along traditional religious and political lines with “Protestants” voting for the retention of the Union and most Catholics voting for change similar to their cousins across the Irish Sea. The problem is that there are too many “90 minute patriots” in Scotland whose sense of independence only extends to football or rugby matches involving the national teams. In addition, I suspect that the same position in the 6 Counties prevails in as much as there is such a high dependency on welfare in certain parts of the 6 Counties and in the central belt of Scotland. It must be difficult to get off your knees and take the real risk of voting for an certain future when you are constantly being told that such a small country cannot go it alone. Of course the current state of finances in the 26 Counties only gives Unionists more ammunition to demonstrate that Alex Salmond’s so called “arc of prosperity” is well and truly dead and that such nonsense as the Celtic Tiger is not merely an endangered species but is a dead as a Dodo and should serve as a timely reminder to Scots what happens when small nation states have the temerity to not only go it alone but try to improve their general lot! The message therefore is; you are too small and ineffective to go it alone so don’t try it. If you do then do not expect Mother England to bail you out (again) as she did recently with the whole RBS debacle (a “Scottish” institution remember). Like other who have posted, none of the current mess would have happened if true patriots had been in positions of trust and authority instead of a bunch of greedy, selfish, crooked incompetents. All Scots benefit from totally free medicine prescriptions, all elderly receive free “personal care” if required but the Nation is constantly being told that this is not sustainable. Yes it is if you remove Trident from Scotland, obtain proper reparations from England to adjust to a nuclear free Scotland and of course provide Scotland with its fair share of North Sea revenues not to mention the increased revenue derived from keeping all taxes on fags, booze and petrol. It’s not a matter of simply copying Ireland in say the smoking ban but to look very closely at what small independent nation states like Ireland can achieve. If Malta, with 500,000.00 residents can be a fully paid up member of the EU project the what is to stop Scotland assuming her rightful place at the top table unless of course you accept the none sense (it’s not even propaganda) spouted by England that entry is not automatics or guaranteed. It’s only 2 years but Scotland is on the cusp of making a decision to enter a brave new world with all the fears and opportunity that would bring or to retain the status quo and remain a wholly dependent, satellite part of North Britain with the benefits such dependency brings? The phrase “where only our rivers run free” springs to mind.
    T
    T

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  • random 15/10/12 #

    Great Britain is the name of the island, and will not be broken up by a Scottish vote for independence. What will break up is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, which will presumably be renamed to the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

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  • smurph 15/10/12 #

    “in a move that could lead to the breakup of Great Britain”

    Great Britain is an island, nothing to do with political boundaries. I assume the author means the breakup of the United Kingdom

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  • Great. we can take their place

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  • Master Plan

    1. Get independence from smaller entity.
    2. Join the larger EU and be even more insignificant.

    The Belgians, Spanish and more bits of the UK to follow to copy.

    Reply

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