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Dublin: 12 °C Tuesday 21 May, 2013

Mortgage arrears could rise to 18 per cent, says report

Banks have still not recognised losses in full, says Davy Research, as it warns that mortgage arrears could rise from 13.5 per cent to as much as 18 per cent.

Ghost housing estate Lios na hAbhainn in Roosky, Co. Leitrim
Ghost housing estate Lios na hAbhainn in Roosky, Co. Leitrim
Image: Mark Stedman/Photocall Ireland.

MORTGAGE ARREARS AMONG owner occupiers could peak at 18 per cent, according to a new report from Davy Stockbrokers.

Arrears on buy-to-let mortgages are expected to be even worse, it said, with twice as many running at arrears compared to owner occupier rates.

According to the report, Irish banks need to start recognising losses. To date, it says there has been a lack of write downs and repossessions that would allow banks to do so. Eventual loan book losses are now likely to rise by 1bn-2.5bn more than last year’s bank stress forecasts predicted, a figure that the banks could probably absorb although other factors such as increased bankruptcy, further property price falls and macroeconomic developments posed risks to this forecast. Peak to trough, property prices are now down by 60 per cent.

“While the steep falls in employment of 8.1 per cent and 4.1 per cent in 2009 and 2010 are unlikely to be repeated, weak growth going forward will weigh on borrowers’ ability to service mortgage debt, and we see owner-occupier mortgage arrears peaking at 16.5 per cent” said David McNamara of Davy. “If employment growth disappoints, and long-term unemployment continues to rise, our adverse scenario forecast has arrears peaking at close to 18 per cent.”

In another report released earlier this week, the Crosscare Migrant Project said that many families are being forced to emigrate just to pay mortgages.

“Some people have to leave the country to support burdensome mortgages because the property crash now means that the family home is unsellable” said Joe O’Brien, Policy Officer with the Project. “The result is not that a family has to leave Ireland, but rather that a family is split with one parent emigrating to support a mortgage for a home that is unsellable.”

Falling again: property prices still at just half of peak value>

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Comments (25 Comments)

  • Government puts 100 euro tax on homes in middle of recession,how typical fine gael.when recession kicked into Australia in 2009 the government gave every person $900 to spend in local shops and business to save the economy! Now has one of the strongest economy in world, in good old Ireland the pigs in government would try to take 900 euro from the people,economy will always be destroyed thanks to muppet government because people don’t have a spare euro to spend and so cycle continues. Also our muppet leader is better paid than the American president. What’s next…new baby tax?

    Reply
  • Ermm … Have the banks not been paid already in case of substantial mortgage writedowns? What was the bailout (s) for? This whole debt based economy thing is making slaves out of all of us.

    Reply
  • Are we supposed to be surprised by the banks STILL proving they are pretty useless at even close levels of financial accuracy reporting!!!!!!

    Reply
  • bob 17/08/12 #

    in arrears with no money? let’s increase what you owe,because your worth it! if or when this happens get ready for war,cause that’s all that will happen!

    Reply
  • Banks still with their heads stuck in the sand. Who would have imagined that…..

    Reply
  • Nobody mentioning the other elephant in the room.
    Property tax.
    Wait until the real property tax kicks in..Defaults will double night.
    You work, pay tax to the state and generate further tax and save the state money by buying your own house and you get penalised for it.

    Reply
  • tozyurt 17/08/12 #

    They should start with realising these losses especially investment buy to let properties . Sell them asap to make sure they get something back before they turn to tax payers. They also distort the whole property market with this kind of carry on.

    Reply
  • Reg.u are not keeping up with the figures or I am being ripped off .just looked at my pay slip to make sure .

    Reply
  • Remember reading predictions of 50% collapse in ‘Property Pin’ web site a few years ago and many people arguing that that was unthinkable.
    Wouldn’t be surprised if property prices drop below 60% reduction as economy continues to falter.
    I found this site yesterday. It gives details of price drops countrywide;
    http://www.daftdrop.com

    Reply
  • Cpm 17/08/12 #

    That’s a fine looking house for 100k by the way. Pity it’s in Leitrim.

    Reply
    • I landscaped this estate back in the day, They certainly were fine house, the developer was genuinely trying to build good homes for people, it was his first project, had made his money from telecom systems or something.

      Lost everything on this one!

      If I remember correctly they were asking around 300k for them. Must be said, I found this developer very genuine and paid all that worked for him, unlike those who screwed the contractors, clients, banks and the public.

      Reply
  • Reg.450in USC and prd each month and takin home 2400.mortgage 1600.put the hankie away.

    Reply
  • Another report that will be debunked by the facts very soon. When this EU/Euro collapses, mortgage arrears will skyrocket…Seems all of these experts keep leaving out this elephant in the room…!!!

    Reply
    • Cpm 17/08/12 #

      The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

      Reply
    • Are the Corrupt Governbanks,real estate industry and media still trying to keep you in a false illusion of stability, so that you keep paying over inflated ponzi mortgages on the overvalued, substandard, squats that they sold you?

      Reply
    • 100% interest only €450,000 mortgages on houses worth €100,000 (if you could find a buyer)

      Or in the case of Priory Hall, €300,000 mortgages on houses worth Zero.

      It could only happen in Ireland.

      Reply
    • Can’t wait to pay the new property tax.

      Reply
    • PeeedOff 17/08/12 #

      “To date, it says there has been a lack of write downs and repossessions that would allow banks to do so.”

      Great idea, reposses property worth a third of their mortgages, toss people on to the street. Driving prices even further down….!!!

      Repeat the process over & over. Now the repossesions are worth only a 20% of the original mortgage. Continue repossesion process, until all house become worth 10% of the original mortgage value….!!!

      Now the rest of the population can afford to buy up property at fractions of their original price….Housing crisis solved…!!!

      Reply
    • Who’d rely on Davys info?
      A bit that fell of Bank Of Ireland.

      Reply
  • The banks have been paid to deal with it and we are still paying between 500 and 700 euro a month in u.s.c.which is the difference between being in arrears and not.history (as in Roosevelt in the 30ies) has already told us what should happen.sick of this European b.s..they know how to sort it but won’t .

    Reply
  • ”MORTGAGE ARREARS AMONG owner occupiers could peak at 18 per cent, according to a new report from Davy Stockbrokers”.

    I like to see Davy produce a report stating the figures on ”how many mortgages in the country are genuinely unsustainable”.
    or
    ”How many mortgages in the country were doled out by the banks in the wrong”
    or
    ”Why the government brought out new insolvency legislation 5 years (if not decades) too late”
    or
    ”Why did the government basically allow the banks to write the new ”insolvency legislation”
    or
    ”Why are collections agent snakes from banks going around the country, harassing and intimidating people out of their last few Euros to pay LONG DEAD, DOOMED TO FAIL mortgages ”

    Reply
  • Cpm 17/08/12 #

    Hanky

    Reply

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